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SSB-64 Mafia - Page 4

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Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 10:52 GMT
#641
Just when you think the daypost couldn't be any weirder.... At least we've got it figured out now. That leaves only talismania & Homerunbat as unknown roles.

I don't know why I'm even asking, but Risen, I assume that you decided to carry iGrok because you think he is scum, and would cause him to lose stock if you would have got hit? (As happened.)
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 11:03 GMT
#646
Remember you have to send in your actions via PM (Item zone & Stage event), I suppose.

I'm not really liking this train on iGrok as it will kill him and reflects 1 stock of damage on someone else as well whom we have no idea of. Truth is though that he has promised to share his thoughts and analysis several times and he just keeps delaying it..

I'm going to wait with my push a bit closer to the deadline. But grush should be today's lynch.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 11:07 GMT
#648
On July 05 2012 20:01 HomerunBat wrote:
remember to PM push choices to the hosts, don't think they count here. could be wrong though.

Cephiro, are you considering switching iGrok and Risen on the item stances?


I'm still having a hard time seeing why Risen is a townie based on his actions so far, and carrying my previously strongest townread doesn't exactly help that either. I'll have to read his filter again, but I just can't get over the fact that he was bashing a plan for attributes that his own plan was even worse at, and on top of that he's been changing his target rapidly. I just don't see it as something a townie would do. If he really is town, then he's playing really poorly in my opinion. (No offense.)

So to answer your question, no, not yet.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 11:23 GMT
#658
On July 05 2012 20:13 Risen wrote:
Lol, iGrok your strongest town read? Igrok is no ones strongest town read what a joke. After igrok flips i think Cephiro needs to die next.


Learn to read. Previously. I'd still kill you before iGrok happily.

On July 05 2012 20:10 Risen wrote:
Also, I saw earlier someone questioning my vote swap, so here's a counter question. Why are you asking?

My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all. Asking that question and trying to cast doubt on me is scummy as shit. The answer is bci wanted tali lynched, though. Seems fairly obvious to me. I wasn't comfortable with Cephiro's late vote on grush one bit.


So because I changed my vote from you to grush (From the person I wanted killed the most, to the person I wanted killed the 2nd most), you think my vote was scummy? I seriously don't understand what the hell you are doing in this game, your logic is repeatingly blame others for the same flaws you do in a worse manner yourself. So your vote swap meant nothing, but my obvious late vote did? (Yeah, I said I would change to grush if you wouldn't get lynched, so how was it a scummy vote?)

So again you are blaming someone for random shit, and painting yourself as innocent when if we look at things by your own logic, you are the most scummy player in the game.

So yes, I think there is a scum outside of tali/grush/iGrok/Saturn.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 11:32 GMT
#660
On July 05 2012 20:30 Risen wrote:
It's legitimately hard for me to fathom you're town.


I guess we agree on one thing then. :p
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 11:45 GMT
#666
On July 05 2012 20:37 Risen wrote:
Food for thought in the thread: bus cephiro and risen. Shoot cephiro. Dedede says: Hey guys look at my breadcrumb!

Meanwhile in mafia chat: omg we got lucky and grush shot cephiro too!

Scum team: dedede and cephiro.

Any flaws in that logic? I like it, because it gives cephiro benefit of the doubt on not being horrible. Only problem is I really liked dedede. His name is so good :/


.... Just wow. Is there anyone but yourself left that you haven't accused of being scum now? Talk about grasping at straws. Could you please point me one single pro-town thing you've done this game? All you do is create new controversies to cause more confusion. Next night feel free to pick me up, because if you're alive I'm shooting you.

On July 05 2012 20:39 Risen wrote:
Smiley face. He's scum.

##push cephiro


This logic. I cannot fathom.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 11:56 GMT
#672
On July 05 2012 20:46 Risen wrote:
Bad logic, you answer yourself. Look at how much town cred this got dedede and cephiro. Everyone is asking them for item/placements. Outrageous in execution, but it almost worked! If cephiro hadn't blundered I would never have thought about it.


... Clearly. I asked everyone if they are okay if we proceed with picking the items in the same way as yesterday, and some agreed. You sure know how to twist your words.

If people are actually going to believe your bullshit and keep thinking you are town for whatever reason, I might as shoot myself tomorrow. All game long you come up with new scumteam combinations, go at it hard, then a few hours later you find something new to pick at, and some consider you town? Really?

You've accused every single person in this game of being scum now. (Except yourself.)

Do everyone a favour, take that break, and come back when you know what you are really thinking.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 12:05 GMT
#677
On July 05 2012 20:57 HomerunBat wrote:
Cephiro, I linked Risen's past games in an earlier post of mine. I'd like you to take a look. TL mafia LI and LIII.


I never play based on meta-game, but I guess I can take a look. What am I supposed to see though? Does he really play like that as town, going around blaming everyone and bashing their plans, and suggesting pro-scum plans himself? I just can't understand that anyone could play town like that, and I've seen my fair share of bad townies.

@ iGrok: Thanks for the reasoning post, was about time.

So others, am I seriously still an idiot for believing that iGrok is town?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 12:18 GMT
#687
On July 05 2012 21:13 Risen wrote:
Yup, fuck this. I'm in san francisco and I refuse to carry you derps. Gg cephiro/dedede/grush/tali


I guess since a smilie meant I'm scum, this defeatist attitude means you're a busted scum that gave up on all hope?

Nice try, but not good enough.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 12:24 GMT
#691
I never put this in the actual thread, so that everyone knows what I'm doing:

##push Risen
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 12:27 GMT
#692
On July 05 2012 20:10 Risen wrote:
Also, I saw earlier someone questioning my vote swap, so here's a counter question. Why are you asking?

My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all. Asking that question and trying to cast doubt on me is scummy as shit. The answer is bci wanted tali lynched, though. Seems fairly obvious to me. I wasn't comfortable with Cephiro's late vote on grush one bit.


"My vote swap literally meant nothing. It didn't affect the game at all."

Mafia Quote of the Year?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 12:32 GMT
#696
On July 05 2012 21:29 HomerunBat wrote:
I think pushing Risen is going to result in two dead townies.


So who is scum if Risen & grush aren't? Grush is obviously up for lynch, and he should be lynched to death today.

Who would you suggest for Zebes push then? Tali, me, Saturn, dedede?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 18:51 GMT
#780
Back, going to catch up on the rest of the thread while refreshing this tab. Anything super-noteworthy?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 19:05 GMT
#785
I don't think it'll be necessary if we kill Risen & grush? But if somehow either of them flips town, then I'll need to re-evaluate the situation. Still catching up. I think I'll re-read some filters, but for now I'd still like to proceed with Risen & grush dying.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 19:55 GMT
#804
Caught up on the thread now. Seems that the discussion isn't really going anywhere, just arguing about who thinks whom is scum. I think I'll just wait for the stage and item results and continue after that.

And if anyone is going to accuse someone of being scum, please back it up with a case or proper reasoning, we can't just go around like asshats and point fingers yelling "Scum!", I'm getting tired of seeing everyone screaming all possible combinations back and forth without reasoning for them.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 22:14 GMT
#825
Woah really? :/ I was sure that iGrok would flip town but Risen..... wtf. How on the earth was anything in your play pro-town?

This sucks.

And grush lost stock too? I guess he forgot to send in a stage action?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 22:17 GMT
#830
On July 06 2012 07:15 talismania wrote:
possible igrok changed his target to grush don't remember if he said anything about that.


But it was clarified earlier that DK damage doesn't chain, if I recall correctly. So it pretty much has to be him forgetting, unless there was a tie between them and both Risen & grush got pushed into the lava because of that?
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 05 2012 22:43 GMT
#846
Off to sleep, I just simply can't keep my eyes open anymore. I'm going to be slightly busy tomorrow but I'll try to join in the discussion whenever I can.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 06 2012 18:56 GMT
#870
Finally got back on. I see there are some accusations made against me, I'll reply to them shortly, and once I've done that I'll start writing my opinions on all remaining players.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 06 2012 19:25 GMT
#872
On July 07 2012 00:18 HomerunBat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2012 10:42 grush57 wrote:
CALLED YOU SCUM OUT NOW THREAD DEAD. EASY TOWN LYNCHED D2 GG SCUM WINS. AND UR ALL LETTING IT HAPPEN


He is 100% correct.

I think this is the scum team: Cephiro & Talismania

Let's start with Cephiro. He is a town read to a lot of people. Why? He shit up the thread right off the bat arguing with Risen, and then tunneled him for the rest of the game. He buddied up to iGrok. These posts rang alarm bells for me the first time I read through them:
+ Show Spoiler +

On July 04 2012 05:49 Cephiro wrote:
Back.

I'm not exactly fond of Homerunbat's play, as he seems to be trying to avoid pissing anyone off. Or that's how it looks like to me. Of course one can just be very polite by nature, but the way he words what he says doesn't sound very natural to me.
He keeps up a discussion with Saturn, where he originally has Saturn as one of his scumreads.
Afterward he agrees on lynching talismania fairly easily, but based on what? The larger post of him earlier doesn't cover enough reasoning to do that imo. His other choice I can't criticize because I admit that I wouldn't mind seeing our useless lurker lose some stock if that's the only way to get him talking.
Rank: 6

Risen needs to die, seriously. He was bashing on iGrok's plan without proper reasoning (he accused iGrok's plan of being bad due to losing town stock, and about lack of information, but his own plan was worse in BOTH areas.)
And what are his scumreads? The people who agreed with iGrok or defended him. Brilliant play if I say so myself. The way he jumps at Homerunbat after he defends iGrok's play makes me cry. He also clearly buddies with Saturn and tries to control his actions (and even succeeds to get Saturn to vote for the bat.)
Rank: 8
##Vote: Risen

Grush is useless. Literally. He comes in, keeps changing his votes constantly and doesn't contribute at all. I just can't see a townie do this, and if he somehow is town, he needs to be waken up. A prime target for night actions that cause stock loss, or a lynch if you won't lynch Risen today.
Rank: 7

talismania, you need to stop trying to crunch the setup and base your play on your meta-game against the host, you need to start playing the game the way it's supposed to be played and deciding your reads based on the actions of others. If you're not going to step up your play asap, I will push you for lynch.
Rank: 4

My thoughts on dedede+Saturn to follow. I don't believe that I need to add more about my opinion on iGrok (Rank: 2), he's my strongest townread but he has to stop the retarded derping around. So please, concentrate and prove me I'm not wrong about you.




+ Show Spoiler +

On July 04 2012 06:39 Cephiro wrote:
Mister Saturn: I was okay with his earlygame play, but since then he's gone all wishy-washy and saying he doesn't trust himself at all. He could be honest about it, or he could be scum looking for an easy way to vote for anyone. I don't care if you're unsure about yourself, I want you to do decisions based on your own opinion, not sheep others. Even the best players are wrong sometimes, and I don't want us to lose if you'll happen to sheep a townie that was wrong, or even worse, a scum dragging you by the ropes. The way you talk about "no-one cares about my opinion so I won't push for it anymore, but I have a gun and I'm not afraid to use it", isn't giving you any points in my book either. I want to hear YOUR opinions. Even if you aren't sure who is scum (which few are at this stage of the game), your opinions can still be valuable for others. So pick it up. And think before you act!
Rank: 5

Kingdedede: The roleclaim at start seems quite honest to me, with the valid reasoning he gave. I am very interested in seeing how he is going to use it, given that he needs to keep his action secret from scum and only reveal his reasoning in the morning. I'm expecting his N1 action to tell a lot. What I don't like is that he is pushing for a mass claim. Certain roles claiming may be useful yes, but everyone claiming is better for scum than town imo. I like his provided reasoning for why he thinks iGrok is town, and I pretty much agree with it. I also like that he pointed out a minor contradiction in iGrok's play. (iGrok was against a mass claim, but wanted to lynch for role info earlier.) I'm slightly confused why he is pushing for talis lynch so hard without more/better reasoning though. Currently leaning slightly town, but I'm expecting to hear more from him soon, and very much looking forward to what he decides to do N1.
Rank: 3


The ranks are just strange. He uses a lot of words to point out tiny things he doesn't like about each person. Risen is the only person he really goes after hard...but he really doesn't describe anything scummy about him. All his accusations look to me like he is accusing Risen of bad play, not being scum.

This is really the extent of his scum hunting, outside of tunneling Risen like a boss. I really don't get the sense he is going after the town win-condition.

Let's look at the reasoning using his ranks. The highest numbers should lose stock first, continuing on down to the lower numbers. He has Risen first, and as I already explained, his accusations are pretty bad. Following Risen he has grush, a lurker. Following that he has me, because I am polite and I decided I would lynch talismania. Read those three paragraphs, his three top reads, and take note of how phony sounding the accusations are.

Now let's go to the reason why he has been basically auto-towned...the NK. This is important. There are perfectly logical reasons for scum Cephiro to aim the NK at himself. Dedede read him as town, so Cephiro knew that as a townie looking Samus, there was a good chance that dedede would choose to protect him via bus. Even if he didn't, the NK only removes one stock, which would absolutely be worth the massive town cred it got him. This does not add or subtract to the case against him. The important thing here is that the NK aimed at Cephiro is a null point. There are logical, valid reasons for it be he town or scum.

Without that NK stuff, there is just his filter, and the filter looks pretty bad imo.


First off, I was certainly not shitting up the thread with the argument with Risen. I provided statistical facts and normal logic to show how his D1 accusations were false and flawed.

As I've said several times, Risen's play was not pro-town at all in my opinion. Tell me how these are bad points:

  • He bashes on iGrok's plan for making town lose stock (with an even ratio compared to scum.) - He suggests a plan that will much more likely make town lose more stock in comparison to scum.
  • He says iGrok's plan gives us no information. (It did.) - His own plan suggestion gives us absolutely no information at all. (Giving item zones based on player list.)
  • He accuses every single player in the game of being scum, without making a proper case on anyone. He goes from: iGrok -> Cephiro -> iGrok -> Homerunbat -> Talismania -> grush57 -> Cephiro -> talismania -> tali/grush -> iGrok/Homerunbat -> iGrok/Saturn/talismania/grush57/Cephiro -> Cephiro -> dedede/Cephiro -> dedede/Cephiro/grush/tali -> Saturn/tali/grush/Dedede/Cephiro (conditional)... etc
  • Does a last minute voteswitch and claims it doesn't matter at all. Tries to save a vig that shot without giving any other reasoning but "I think he's scum".


Why are ranks strange? I gave you an exact order in how I have people pegged currently, as I want everyone to understand what I am thinking and why I'm thinking. If you find that somehow anti-town... should I keep everything to myself and come out with some tidbits every now and then, or just a huge post at once like iGrok did? Didn't seem like a much better idea considering how you wanted to kill him for it.

About the NK, I didn't ask the scum to shoot me. If I am a threat to them, that means I've done something right. In a stock game like this, you can twist any night actions to look correct from any perspective you want. The thing is, you can't play based on what is the most twisted and sickest scum plan ever. Sure, it could be right, but how likely is that? I lynch scum based on the mistakes and contradictions they make, not on night-WIFOM.

And finally, about "tunneling" Risen. Yes, it is true that pretty much since the start of the game I have had him pegged as scum. He has not at any point in the game given me a reason to change my mind. I always evaluate the situation again and again based on new information and actions. However, none of his actions as I've several times described were pro-town in my opinion. Am I scum for wanting to kill my biggest scumread? When I'm sure that someone is scum, I make sure they die. Giving them a chance to escape could cost you the game. So why on earth should I not try to get my biggest scumread killed? Yes, I was wrong about it. Can townies be wrong sometimes? Yes. Can I be wrong sometimes? Yes. If I'm wrong, does that make me scum? No.
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