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On June 30 2012 02:14 BioSC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 02:10 Keirathi wrote:On June 30 2012 02:08 BioSC wrote:On June 30 2012 02:04 Keirathi wrote:On June 30 2012 01:56 BioSC wrote:
You are assuming.
What!? Are you dense? My list was *EVERY POSSIBLE SCENARIO THAT CAN HAPPEN* regardless of what roles there are. Okay, actually I missed a couple of possible scenarios. Vivax could be DT, and there could be no doc. The outcome is basically the same as #3. The last possible scenario is that Vivax isnt DT *AND* Jingle isn't Mafia. In which case, Vivax is retardedly dumb, and town ends up losing. Now, for obvious reasons, you can see why I didn't list this one. It makes no sense whatsoever. Yes. You are making the assumption that Vivax is a DT, and saying its the best path for town. I do not believe Vivax is the DT at all. So how am I dense? You leave out scenarios and call ME dense? Amusing. Just because it doesn't make sense to you doesn't mean it isn't possible. 2) We kill Vivax, he doesnt flip DT. 1 mafia down. 6) We lynch Jingle, hes NOT Mafia. We lynch Vivax tomorrow. Where did I leave out scenarios where Vivax isn't DT? Thats what those look like to me. Yes, you posted your wonderful list of things that could happen. I'm saying YOU are assuming he's a DT, thus you are saying that the best scenarios involve you taking 100% gospel of Vivax's claim. I don't. Not one bit. Case coming up shortly.
The problem I'm seeing is that YOU are assuming that I am assuming he's DT. My only assumption is that town wants to win. The best possible case for town to win is if we ALL assume he's DT (and hope we have a Doc).
And you were right about one thing; I am completely disregarding the scenario where Vivax is not DT but also still town. If you want to believe that, go ahead. I'm going to trust that fellow townies aren't that stupid though.
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On June 30 2012 02:31 BioSC wrote:
I would rather lynch into you to confirm your role
So you would rather lose a blue role than keep one? You make no sense and I'm done arguing with you. If other people believe that garbage, then town is doomed and there's very little point to any discussion.
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The simple fact of the matter is that its better for the town if Jingle flips town than it is for Vivax to flip DT.
Thats really all it comes down to. Simple game mechanics.
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EBWOP: That is, assuming Jingle isn't a blue role as well. Which he hasn't claimed.
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You JUST made the case that some people aren't OMG SUPER SMART players, then discount the fact that maybe Vivax is one of them, and he's doing the only thing he knows to do to clear himself.
Do I think he is suspicious? Hell yes. Do I think there is a possibility that he's not lying about DT and wants to clear himself? Yes, yes I do.
If there's any possibility that he is actually DT, then lynching him to prove it is just dumb.
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On June 30 2012 07:08 Esspen wrote:
I do not get all this Jingle vs Vivax discussion. Whomever we lynch, the result will be the same in the end. Even if we confirm that Vivax is the DT, he'll be killed during the night immediately.
Thats not necessarily true.
What if there's a doctor and he saved Vivax?
What if we lynch Vivax and hes DT, and then mafia kills another blue role tonight?
There are lots of possibilities where this plays out differently than Jingle and Vivax both dying.
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Here's how I see it: There's a small but very real possibility that Vivax is actually DT. He was being put under pressure via votes, so decided to claim his role.. If that's the case, then lynching him to "prove" it hurts town more in the long run. We can always hope for a Doctor, and guarantee some good results.
There's a decent probability that he's Mafia and use the claim to buy himself an extra day. In this case, lynching his target hurts town in the short run, but basically guarantees us a mafia kill tomorrow, and possibly more leads from a real DT.
IMO, its better to take the safe route than to just bet on the fact that he's lying. The opportunity cost is small enough at 10 players that its worth it.
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TL;DR: Lynching a DT who played badly hurts town more than lynching a vanilla, as I've said before.
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On June 30 2012 07:30 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 07:27 Keirathi wrote:
Here's how I see it: There's a small but very real possibility that Vivax is actually DT. He was being put under pressure via votes, so decided to claim his role.. If that's the case, then lynching him to "prove" it hurts town more in the long run. We can always hope for a Doctor, and guarantee some good results.
There's a decent probability that he's Mafia and use the claim to buy himself an extra day. In this case, lynching his target hurts town in the short run, but basically guarantees us a mafia kill tomorrow, and possibly more leads from a real DT.
IMO, its better to take the safe route than to just bet on the fact that he's lying. The opportunity cost is small enough at 10 players that its worth it. Small opportunity cost? With three scum, and only 7 of us left, with night kills, there's only 2 mislynches needed to bring our team down to equal with the scum. Worse, it's plurality, so if the scum vote fast at that point, we lose.
One scum dies either today or tomorrow.
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Just because it's desperation doesn't necessarily mean he's lying.
Basically it comes down to why he was pressuring my if he knew jingle was scum. It's a valid question, and one I want to know a good answer for. Lynching a lurker to give another night of investigations, while eliminating a possible mafia sort of makes some small amounts of sense, though.
However I'm much more inclined to believe hes just a newbie (this is the newbie mafia after all) and was trying to conceal the fact that he was DT for as long as possible, than I am inclined to lynch a DT claim on day2, no matter how desperate.
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I really hope for town's sake that I'm wrong and his claim was a last ditch effort at avoiding a lynch, because if he IS the DT, town basically loses the game as soon as the vote goes through.
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On June 30 2012 07:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Keirathi, the question doesn't come down to "what does town lose if player X is telling the truth." It comes down to who you think is scum. The fact that you acknowledge that there is a decent case against him but you does not reflect well on your alignment. Here is why I'm voting Vivax over JingleHell: Vivax's play has been incredibly scummy, JingleHell's has not. It's that simple.
I 100% disagree. This game is ALL about making careful decisions than win the game in the LONG TERM; fully clearing or condemning someone is much more important than any single days lynch.
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ENWOP: with the exceptions of days that result in town losing if you mislynch, of course.
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Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd........village idiot award goes to Vivax. Inc suspicion.
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EBWOP: Gg to Vivax I guess. I just hope you realize that if we did vote Jingle and you were wrong (and you really had no concrete evidence against him, just a hunch), that the game would have been 100% over because of your fake claim. With 10 people, Jingle would have died, then flipped town. Mafia kills a town at night, we lynch you tomorrow, mafia kills another town tomorrow night. That would have put us down to 6 players, with 3 being mafia. Game over.
TL;DR: think before you make dumb decisions.
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Maybe a bit premature, but is no-lynch possible in this setup at all? Say we get a unanimous no-lynch vote, can we end the day early?
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Because with 8 players left, if we mislynch, the game is over, barring a doc save (which we don't even know if we have a doc).
8 people left: if we lynch a townie (5/8 chance), then mafia kills a townie, that leaves us at 6 people with 3 mafia. Game over.
If we no-lynch at 8 players: mafia kills an extra townie, but we are at 7 players now. 3/7 chance to get mafia, rather than 3/8.
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EBWOP: Not sure if I made that super clear. Town always has better voting odds on days with an odd number of people compared to days with an even number of people.
I can explain more if necessary.
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With 2 minutes left until night ends, I would like to propose a policy for the town to discuss. I'm doing it now because of the fact that it is possible I will be killed tonight, and want to have the chance to express it in the case of that eventuality; my last will and testament of sorts. If I don't die, I am fully willing to explain in more details my plan tomorrow, but I would like to lay out the basics now.
All of this is with the assumption that there isn't a doc save tonight. If there is, then disregard everything I'm saying now, and we can discuss things tomorrow.
1) We no-lynch tomorrow, unless there is very, very, VERY solid evidence against someone. I don't mean hunches. I mean nearly concrete evidence. I listed in my previous post why this is beneficial, and it gives us another night of blue roles, if we have any.
2) Assuming we do no-lynch tomorrow, I propose that on the following night, everyone claims their role (and results, if applicable) absolutely as close as possible to the following night ending, preferably with just minutes or seconds to spare, so we don't give the mafia time to change their kill/role targets.. The following day will be do-or-die, so there's no point in holding back information at that point. We HAVE to get it right.
I hope everyone at least gives my proposal some serious thought and discussion. I 100% believe its the best course of action for the town if we want to have any chance of winning the game.
P.S: If this post is out of line or against the rules, I sincerely apologize. I couldn't find anything against it in the rules post, and I pm'd kitaman but didn't get a response before it was time to post. I saw nRgMonk ask, but no response as well.
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Okay, so no Doc save.
##Vote: No-Lynch
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EPT
