EPTGoing to rely on the time-honored tradition of "I asked you first" here.
TL Mafia LVI - Page 2
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Going to rely on the time-honored tradition of "I asked you first" here. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
The reasoning on why his D1 play is bad scum as opposed to bad town is relatively weak. Going to try not to stretch it. But I don't think there are good reasons for finding him to be bad townie on D1 either. My scummy read on him DOES rely somewhat on me thinking he's not new. It sounds like you're saying that. If so, you either think he's new and just happened to name himself drwiggl3s in order to start playing in mrwiggles' game, and using terms like soft defense. If you have changed your mind and think he's smurfing, then he's lied about being new. While smurfs are all lying about their identities in a way, that's a step above and beyond. Other than that, he's clearly read the thread. He brings up little posts like mattchew's list, my mention before deadline that the vote was 7/7/7, couple other things. And the reason he finally comes back and explains his ninja vote is On July 01 2012 05:13 drwiggl3s wrote: Ok since some people asked, here's what I'm thinking. Look at the intervening hours between his vote (pg 15) and explanation (pg 20). Here are the references to drwiggl3s in that time period: On June 30 2012 18:42 Acrofales wrote: As Mattchew put it so succinctly: what the hell is this? (austinmcc note: Mattchew did not reference drwiggl3s in the intervening hours, this just references mattchew's earlier comment on casualman's vote, which drwiggl3s uses later in his explanation for his BKE vote) On July 01 2012 00:05 Acrofales wrote: Btw, I disagree on the reasoning. Something as dumb as casualman (and later drwiggles) have done is a dumbtell, not a scumtell. I am not sure what to make of it, which is why I have a bad feeling about the BKE bandwagon either way and am waiting for BKE, casualman and drwiggles to explain themselves. On July 01 2012 00:28 ShiaoPi wrote: Those posts have generally been snipped to just the wiggl3s mentions. He's not the main topic of conversation. There's a lot going on in those 5 pages. He gets mentioned 3 times in passing, by 2 players only, and in 2 of those mentions it's part of a list. Yet he was reading closely enough to see that he was mentioned and respond.Well you raise some good points on mkmkmk, filter size is really small though and he should pop by to post something more, before I would judge him. Generally said, activity could really use a bump :O I think there are still a bunch of players who have not posted yet, also BKE, casualman mind coming back to answer questions? Add drwiggles to that list, dropping a vote without reason and disappearing afterwards is baaaad. - His explanation for his vote is still bad. Very bad. Yes, that doesn't mean bad scummy - He doesn't comment on anything else in the thread when he explains his vote. His purpose for his only substantive post D1 is to explain his ninja vote, nothing more. Like he needed to get that done, but couldn't be bothered to actually play mafia. Look at part of his explanation On July 01 2012 05:13 drwiggl3s wrote: He's read. He finds some people scummy. He doesn't just come out and say who.As for other players: I find many people are soft defending BKEXE and in their posts trying to put suspicion onto others (with little reason). I see these as scummy moves. - In his D1 wrapup and all his comments last night, he never mentions my post on him. He read close enough to see my 7/7/7 comment, to see that people mentioned him, but either didn't read a sizeable post on himself or didn't address it. Unsure whether I read this as scummy, but if I'm new and I'm town, I don't want anyone suspicious of me. I know overreaction is scummy, but complete nonreaction from a new townie isn't something I'd expect either. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
The paranoid version of his play since the lynch is that he was told to get more active and look like dumb town. I'm not on that train of thought yet. He pushes his bad logic so hard that he gets ET, who really wants to engage in discussion with people at this time, to just shrug him off and add him to a personal ignore list. What's one way to dodge pressure that might be coming your way once people aren't focused on foxtrot? Drop a bunch of nonsense and get people to ignore you entirely. The non-paranoid take on his play since the lynch is that it's bad. There are the comments on Mattchew, the dialogue with ET. One thing that caught my attention was: On July 02 2012 15:17 drwiggl3s wrote: Somehow (I have no clue how his posts were read as scum), people hint and drop Fox's name as a possible scum candidate. After testing the waters, a bandwagon is launched on him and it get's the votes. This lynch not only killed a fellow town, but it also netted 0 information on who else could be scum. On July 02 2012 16:01 drwiggl3s wrote: Foxtrot by all means did NOT deserve the noose he got. He posted late, and said sorry for being busy. Is that an obvious "scum post"? Yes. So obvious that any scum with any sense would NOT post it. Any read on him being scum tells more about the person pointing fingers than it does on Foxtrot himself. No intervening posts, both posts snipped down a little. In the first, drwiggl3s has no clue how Foxtrot's posts were read as scum. In the second, Foxtrot's post was "an obvious 'scum post.'" He concludes that it was too obvious for scum to make, which may be HIS reasoning for why Foxtrot's post wasn't scummy, but he CANNOT have "no clue" why Foxtrot's post was read as scummy if he thinks it was too scummy to be scummy. I key in more on those two posts than I do on the other stuff. Overall, bad play isn't alignment indicative. His play since the lynch isn't particularly alignment-indicative for me. I don't love those two posts, but nothing he's done since makes me lean townier or scummier on him. shiaopi and solstice, I'd still like y'all's thoughts on wiggl3s. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I don't think it's a great idea to push someone that has a scum read on you if you're scum and know them to be town. At the same time, after foxtrotter was added to that post, your list is 6 players long. There's probably at least a scum or two on it. Probably more townies on it than just foxtrotter. If you died, I wouldn't immediately sheep that list, and I don't think others would either. Moreover, say we lynched you tomorrow. That's 2 days down, you flip town. It would take an additional 5 game days to lynch down that list if we never got distracted at all. So I think the illogical side of pushing for your lynch is lessened by the fact that your list doesn't just accuse drwiggl3s by his lonesome, and you didn't push him after that post. A big list like that means scumwiggl3s would still have plenty of room to hide even if you flip town. So I'm of a mixed mind. I think the question's good and the simple answer does fall in the favor of wiggl3s. Attempts at Kurumi interpretation! + Show Spoiler + Kurumi can (maybe) correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm interpreting this as town reads on : Maju + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 05:04 Kurumi wrote: Marie was the wife of Albert. They had two children: Jules and Ursule. They loved both equally. Then shadows came and end all things. Although ymmv on whether Kurumi loves them or whether shadows come and end them ShiaoPi+ Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 05:04 Kurumi wrote: Over time, my husband will desire me less sexually, but he will always enjoy my pies. . . . I am holding a pin to make pies. Pies are delicious. NoSmurfHere+ Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 05:23 Kurumi wrote: Hesitant town read?The gnome is not the usual gnome but likes to work. Fine colleague I say. A more obvious scum read on ghost...I think?+ Show Spoiler + On July 02 2012 21:00 Kurumi wrote: There was also a Marv quote and a Twelve quote in the original post aboveI shall leave this here for you to think about it. You are terrible, terrible detectives. On July 03 2012 05:23 Kurumi wrote: Thirteen starts and ends the order. I am fixing the telephone lines. The gnome is not the usual gnome but likes to work. Fine colleague I say. Vladimir was sent by the Soviet Union to conquer the skies. Poopy Joe died too soon. Marie Skłodowska-Curie is awesome. I am collapsing. I am seeing ghosts. Ghosts are dangerous. Is there a ghost buster on the phone line? It is not working. I am fixing the telephone lines. The gnome is not the usual gnome but likes to work. Fine colleague I say. Vladimir was sent by the Soviet Union to conquer the skies. Poopy Joe died too soon. Marie Skłodowska-Curie is awesome. I am collapsing. I am seeing ghosts. Ghosts are dangerous. Yes, ghosts are bad. Scientists have labelled him. He needs to get sweet lollipop of candy land chocolate flavour banana pie ring. I think I am leaking. Agent Gruller inout. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I like his pushback against marv on the FT vote. Why would scum vivax not be content there? mK was a mislynch, FT was a mislynch, why bother bringing up Grush when he can sit on mK or FT knowing they flip town, or sit on BKE without worry that his vote looks all that odd. VE, thoughts on his D1 vote concerns? Don't particularly love the interactions with BM. Don't know why he'd support BM's cases on VE and acro, how can you support a case that basically calls 2-3 (BKX started popping into BM's stuff) people scum within the first little bit of D1? Don't love this question On July 01 2012 00:02 Vivax wrote: VE, why would you support a bandwagon on BM without posting the reasons for it? BM had been mentioned, but there was a single vote on BM at this point. And you're right, he keeps obliquely referencing BM, in that question and in his "regarding" post, without really talking about BM. Overall, I'm getting mixed signals, not enough for me to vote him yet, still need to look at others. Also, and I'm spoilering this because I may have terrible meta analysis and meta analysis on a newer player is PROBABLY not very valuable, but: + Show Spoiler + Did a quick read of Vivax's filters in Newbie XV and Newbie XVIII , townie in both. A few basic observations:
I don't love how he seems to be more focused this game compared to newbie games. Less larger posts. Less posts addressing lots of recent happenings. Not confident enough in my meta abilities or meta on a first full-size game to rely on this though. And while he's not calling out oodles of people in single posts, he did manage to find Mandalor, BKE, Marv, Acro, VE all scummy. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
He posts about grush when FT has 3 votes. mKmK 10 / BKE 7 / FT 3 when Vivax spoke up. Sentiment in the thread had started to change, so it's not like he couldn't anticipate more coming, but we had less than 1:30 left and needed 5 more votes to get swapped at a minimum. The way he defends him is also less calling FT town, and more asking why Marv has singed out FT, when similar lynches are available. I'm okay with Marv's answer that the read comes from more than just the text itself, but I think Vivax's question is one that townies should have been asking. I know I didn't feel fully comfortable with why we swapped so hard. Sure, it could be to gain some cred, but it could also be concern over a really hard push on a guy for reasons that can't really be articulated. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
So many people look a little scummy, but right now I'm on board with ET as an option. Not reading thread - On July 03 2012 10:38 EchelonTee wrote: So far, hasn't made the promised posts - that's 2 vig shots? no claims? On July 03 2012 23:01 EchelonTee wrote: Plus, after his whole exchange with drwiggl3s, who he concludes just has poor logic, ET NEVER steps in to defend drwiggl3s. I know at least a few people dropped in to say they read wiggl3s as bad town. ET never came back to do so, despite being around at points throughout the night. Going to make a few posts on who I think is scum, following. Also, NSH. I know you're on ShiaoPi, and I've got to say that I'm reading him scum as now. In our newbie games together, I felt like we had the exact same thought processes. We had similar reads in XIII, and in XV we both read one scum member as townie and were his only defenders until I switched last moment. I asked him about his read on drwiggl3s to see if we matched up there, and I didn't love his answer there, nor his being on BKE early. So at least this far, I've got a scumread on him but it's based on us not agreeing, which doesn't feel like very strong evidence. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Right now, I'm of town minds on him. Pointing towards scum - He finds NSH suspicious because he thinks NSH started a bandwagon on FT as an alternative to BKE. BUT, he found FT scummy himself. So either he's got awful reasoning for being suspicious of NSH (I think he started a bandwagon on a guy that I found scummy), or he's got no decent explanation for his vote swap. Pointing towards town - You guys have read his filter. Some posts in there just don't make any sense at all, or state things incorrectly. Go read his post about NSH being a ringlead and apparently rasta being his scumbuddy. + Show Spoiler + On July 03 2012 06:43 Twelve wrote: I'm hesitant to post this,but I have a feeling I may be killed tonight, and a REALLY strong feeling NoSmurfHere WILL NOT be Mafia killed tonight. I made a list of people who jumped on the mKmKmK lynch as I felt it was just an attempt of mafia to get a townie lurker lynched. As I went through the list of names using their filters, I came to some tentative conclusions. My current read is that if there is a Ringleader in this game (godfather), it is NoSmurfHere. + Show Spoiler + NoSmurfHere New Zealand. July 01 2012 10:25 Also your belief in "proof" probably suggests you shouldn't be playing mafia, given that most accurate reads are not based on anything anywhere close to proof. I feel he may be breadcrumbing for a detective role check. It was just a note next to his name when I Look at the interaction between NoSmurfHere and rastaban. After NoSmurfHere starts the bandwagon against mKmKmK(a lurker lynch I really didn't agree with), he seems very interested in a role claim from NoSmurfHere, perhaps trying to get a detective to waste a night and make a really dangerous "confirmed towny". + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 00:53 rastaban wrote: Yeah let's not anger the host. The other option is he is a blue acting strangely to it, but I am sure Mafia already thought of this if he isn't on their team so he is outed regardless of alignment. I think this is the easy and probably accurate lynch for today, so we should be thinking about pushing for a role claim from him. I may be reaching, but again, I think I may wake up dead and wanted to get my thoughts out there. 12's thoughts here just don't make any sense to me. Like not townie, not scummy, just really misreading what happened. His post says that NSH wanted a ... role claim from himself? In order to get DT checked? Or something? Like, this is spectacularly good nonsense if it's crafted to make him look too odd to get lynched. 12, can you explain your theory here? Why did you think NSH was a godfather? Who was trying to get a role claim from who and how were they trying to waste DT checks? You posted that your theory couldn't be true, but I'd appreciate it if you'd just walk us through exactly what your theory was. Then he says NSH started the FT bandwagon. Now his most recent post On July 05 2012 03:58 Twelve wrote: Complete misunderstanding of how mafia's KP works.Waste of a lynch guys. Focus on people who are pushing for me. Or enjoy the 6 mafia kps tonight. I do want to note that I don't put much stock on this last post. Yes, he's wrong about mafia KP. Either he's legitimately wrong, or he was told that one great way to take pressure off himself would be to act like he didn't understand how mafia team mechanics worked. That's the perfect thing to be wrong about if, you know, you're getting seriously pressured today because people have a scumread on you. You guys that are voting for him, do you think he's just pretending/being told to post like he doesn't understand what's going on? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Still can't reconcile 12's earlier nonsense with scum. Maybe it's a great tactic to get pushed aside and not be considered for a lynch, but if that was the plan it's failed miserably. I assume people are gone and we can't get traction on another lynch, but I could vote ShiaoPi or Katina atm. ShiaoPi I mentioned before, it's an odd read mainly based on the fact that we haven't agreed on some of our reads this game. Katina got some pressure early this cycle. It was her birthday, so to some extent the lack of filter is explained by that. When she returned, she addressed the pressure by getting active for a moment. After the pressure died down on her though, look at some of the posts from later in the day: On July 05 2012 03:54 Katina wrote: I don't think that Twelve is Mafia. From what I have seem from his filter he explains himself and his actions. He has been concise in explaining his actions. One thing I don't like though is he doesn't seem to be doing a lot of analysis. On July 05 2012 04:10 Katina wrote: (austinmcc note: this is addressing Vivax) I'm looking over his filter and seeing that he has a decent amount of posts. The contents of his posts seems like they are sincere. He gives his opinions and looks like he is putting effort into scum hunting. For now I would say town until I see something that erks me. Just some very bland reasoning. Broad statements that look like they give reads, but they're kind of...airy? 12 has concisely explained himself and his actions (I disagree with her here). Vivax has been sincere, posted a decent amount, given opinions, and seems to be putting effort into scum hunting. This just feels...off. Like they're the read equivalents of someone trying to convince you they can communicate with the dead by throwing out really broad statements and letting your mind fill in the blanks for them. Sorry Katina. While I appreciate your cookie, with ET out of the running for tonight my vote's going on you. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Lot of late movement here, right as I was planning on switching away from ET and seeing how the replacement situation resolved itself. I stayed on ET to see what would happen, and because I read him as scummy and was still split on 12. Got jumpy, especially when NSH's reasoning was sheeping acro, and so I figured better to lynch the guy town had previously chosen and let the ET situation resolve itself. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Heck, I pushed back against VE on vivax and I voted ET over 12. So I don't even disagree with those reads really. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:08 NoSmurfHere wrote: My bad. I shouldn't have switched. I knew Adam was scum too LOL. Let's kill grush, Twelve, ShiaoPi. Doing some more rereading Has your read on Katina changed? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:39 NoSmurfHere wrote: However the content of her contributions is pretty useless. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 05 2012 01:41 Katina wrote: austin gets a cookie for that point against ET. I'm curious to see if ET steps up and either posts his case or explains why he hasn't presented it yet. You had him town. Then I got a cookie, and it looked like you were going to be suspicious of ET if he didn't 'splain himself. | ||
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