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Newbie Mini Mafia XVI - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 07:04 GMT
#492
To be quite honest, i feel like lynching you or lazermonkey rather than one of myself, ha, or vivax.
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 19:30 GMT
#497
On June 15 2012 03:25 Release wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2012 02:05 ha236 wrote:
On June 14 2012 19:21 ShiaoPi wrote:
Me being roleblocked is hard to proof, but what would scum get from claiming to be RB'ed?


Well, with this reasoning he would sink on your scum meter... Everything mafia do is cause confusion and this would add to the choas.

Not only that, but the way this setup works is very vulnerable to scum claims:
we may have 0 rb 1 medic, in which our medic has died, or a 1 rb 1 medic and 1 dt

the difference in "roles" is 2, and there are exactly 2 scum alive. The rest of us are VT (in the 0 rb 1 medic) so we can't exactly argue with that. However in the 1 rb 1 medic and 1 dt, even if the real DT claiming now, we don't have a ML to use so ...

Since we only had 1 ML at the time of claiming, 2 fake claims (and in theory, 2 counterclaims) would leave us needing 2 ML to be safe, and this is the reason why that if we did have a real DT, i believe that he would've stayed silent and tried to breadcrumb us the result of his check in his posts rather than openly opposing Grush's ridiculous claim.


How bout you just wait till the day ends and I die then to confirm all these suspicions of yours
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 22:55 GMT
#504
The case against ha:

We have spent a large proportion of the second day cycle bickering amongst ourselves after the grush/me roleclaim. Throughout this entire series of dialogue not one of us had taken notice of any "lurking" being done, which can be attributed to release's extreme post amount (which isn't a bad thing).
Throughout the second day, ha did an amazing job of diffusing responsibility off of himself. He only posted with contentless posts, and the grush/Me claim created enough controversy to be able to throw him off our radars. Not only has ha not contributed to town whatsoever within the recent days, he has laid extremely low, which is a great scumtell to me, since the lynches within these few days are extremely integral to our victory.

Since I know that me and Lazermonkey are town, the mafia definitely lie within release, ha, ShiaoPi, and vivax.

Release has been a very good poster within the few days. I do not understand his recent accusations but his play during the recent days has proved to me as a great pro-town read.

ShiaoPi I am still unsure of, but since I am DT and he claimed the roleblock (without counterclaims) it is within reason to believe that he is town.

Ha is almost certainly mafia, as detailed above.

The last person on the list is vivax. Although vivax has responded to Lazermonkey's attacks with decent responses of his own, by process of elimination, vivax is probably the second mafia to town. However, my scum read against him relies on the others being town within a reasonable doubt.

Thus, I can conclude that the mafia team is ha and vivax, and the next day lynch should be ha.
Looking at release's post, it is definitely a possiblity that I will be roleblocked this night and spared, because then I cannot confirm anything to town. It is important that you all listen to my analysis so we can get through this for a victory
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 22:57 GMT
#505
This post was shorter than I expected
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 22:58 GMT
#507
On June 15 2012 07:36 Release wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2012 06:22 Vivax wrote:
Ok. I have analyzed ha2's posts especially concentrating on his voting behavior.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342960&currentpage=13#247

Here voted s0lstice after defending from Release, without posting any case against s0lstice.

Then he votes Release omgus style, but only after he voted for s0lstice for whatever reason.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=342960&currentpage=13#247

Here that pattern repeats again. He defends from Release, and votes for grush based on something which has been repeated over and over by whole town.
On the other hand, there's really not that much to say about grush, his play was...original. The point isn't as strong, but the repeating pattern 'make cases against 1, vote 2 for no reason' is kinda suspicious.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=494&topic_id=342960

The last post.

He has been playing in incredibly inconsistent way regarding his very few votes, while mantaining a style trying to post as few as he can. He only starts engaging into discussion when there are townies pressuring him, and even then he keeps his posts as short as possible.

Please consider what I wrote just now if I die tonight. If I survive, I will reevaluate the case against him with more information.
For sure he's a lategame lurker when there is so much information available. He didn't post any lengthy cases yet, just defending and bandwagoning.

Tbh, the death will be either Kthez (DT) or myself(VT), since we've pretty much split the town into two sides

Shiaopi + lazer + kthez
myself + ha + vivax

If i die, Kthez dies the next day, understand?

Day 3: I would expect that Kthez will have another night "check" to report to everyone so pay close attention to what he says and whether or not it makes sense. I'm just going to put his out there: to whoever the real DT is, if we have one, is do not check my alignment. Check either Kthez or Ha. Those checks would provide the most information to us.

One thing that Kthez might say if he doesn't die is that he was RBed. I would look at this with suspicion because it is just an excuse to not have to substantiate his claim to be a DT.

Nowing that Kthez hasn't made a big pre-death post (yet, this one i would wait until 3:59 PST), it probably means that he is hiding / has something to hide, and is pretty much what zen_man and Grush did because we lynched them (because they were acting scummy). This would be no different.

That being said, a detailed analysis of whom you (kthez) suspect in your pre-death post may change my mind, as well as that of Ha and whoever else doubts the claims.

What i want to ask you all now, is who are your picks for the scumteam as of now? I think i have made it pretty clear that i am heavily favoring Kthez + Shiaopi, for reasons already mentioned,

Or, If Kthez's "final" post manages to convince me (it would have to be quite convincing indeed), i would have to retract my statements about him and shiaopi and go with ha and lazer (I honestly just don't believe that lazer could be town while vivax is not)

Really think about this question. I don't want half-assed answers like X and Y because OMG they Scum. Provide reasoning (not necessarily analysis, i made this post way to late in the day to have time for that) and make sure that if required, you can back it up with analysis (if questioned)

You'll only have abotu 20 minutes after i finish this post to answer the question but i really do want as many people as possible to answer it. And one more thing; read this whole post.

Kthez, you better watch your back.






Release your support in the consecutive mislynches and your tunneling makes me very sad that I am in your sights.
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:20 GMT
#514
Well this is awkward
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:22 GMT
#522
Roleblocked
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:28 GMT
#533
On June 15 2012 08:24 Release wrote:
Kthez
My stomach hurts from laughing so much.


At me or WITH me lolololol
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:29 GMT
#535
And I woulda gotten away with it if it wasnt for you stupid townies and your dumb detective
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:30 GMT
#536
Pretty hard to change our hit if he posts with like 5 seconds left in day though
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:31 GMT
#537
##Vote: ShiaoPi

For the HORDDDEEEEE
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 14 2012 23:34 GMT
#541
I was convinced I could probably influence your opinion enough after lazermonkey flips (town hopefully) to push the lynch onto someone else
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 15 2012 20:17 GMT
#559
Reasoning on my claim:

grush claimed DT against me, and I thought he really was DT, so I resigned myself to death and counterclaimed, hoping to get grush the DT lynched and then I would be lynched the next day, but it would pave the path for vivax to screw with town.
Basically I had to make a quick decision so I chose to claim DT since I was fucked in my opinion.

Course, when grush appeared to rescind and flipped townie, we scum got our panties in a knot and had to make sure we shot whoever was NOT dt. I was sure that the DT would claim at night, and we tried to NOT hit the dt so I could push a lynch on him the next day.

Course the DT claimed but we didnt have enough time to switch our vote, because he posted in the last minute (which is quite a gimmick in my opinion).

Basically in almost all scenarios I was screwed unless Grush was town claiming to be DT, which to me seemed pretty improbable
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 15 2012 20:18 GMT
#560
I had to counter claim blue because grush claimed to have check me as scum (which I was). So I figured he really was the DT. Thus I wanted to get town to mislynch grush and then be lynched the next day, which would provide favorable odds for vivax
KtheZ
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States813 Posts
June 16 2012 02:22 GMT
#567
On June 16 2012 06:08 Blazinghand wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 16 2012 05:17 KtheZ wrote:
Course the DT claimed but we didnt have enough time to switch our vote, because he posted in the last minute (which is quite a gimmick in my opinion).


Actually, some games (WBG's games in particular) have a specific amount of time at the end of the night where nobody can share their night actions but people can still talk. There are different philosophies on whether or not this sort of thing is good-- it was discussed a bit in the Idea Factory (link) if you want to chip in your 2 cents.

Thanks for the link
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