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Okay spain won so as mentioned here are the 3 guys I am considering:
Payl, who is basicl unwilling to play the game. He has a total of 10 posts and did nothing so far.
We have a lot of posts that are explaining rules or taking stances that are very short without explanation, depending on the flavor of the day:+ Show Spoiler [click me!] +On June 14 2012 14:34 payl wrote:
and please don't shoot each other that quickly, I'm still trying to get a feel for everything and would rather not have the day shortened. On June 13 2012 06:15 payl wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
might as well claim that I'm a Miller. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 06:07 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
It doesn't matter who I shoot, it won't do anything. Oops someone lied shoot him. I vote RoL for day 1 death, btw. On June 13 2012 06:19 payl wrote:
meh I dont believe him, but ill read more On June 11 2012 14:52 payl wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2012 14:45 gonzaw wrote:Also, if the Doctor is the most pro-town motherfucker around, he can protect himself each night and just coast through the game invincible until LYLO or sorts where he can save our ass  Thoughts on this? Doctor - "You can be Sane, Insane, Paranoid or Weak." Btw, hi. On June 17 2012 01:07 payl wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 01:03 Dirkzor wrote:
Oh and also...
why only 1 night kill?!? Who got hit/protected/is vet? You think SK or scum wanted to kill Wiggles? "Serial Killer - Lone wolf. You must survive until the end of the game and eliminate both Town,Mafia and any other factions. At night you are bulletproof and can't be shot. You also show up as Innocent to role checks. You can kill at Night OR Kill during the day. You must kill at Night or the following Day or else I will mod kill you." There's another possibility.
There's basicly one post in there that has something in it: + Show Spoiler [click me!] +On June 14 2012 14:33 payl wrote:#1 suspect: MrZentor Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 23:17 MrZentor wrote:
RoL is most likely miller, as I doubt the mafia would make up something like that; the only suspicious thing is that now he appears exactly like a normal mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), we might want to kill him in the future if we don't kill anybody who has the gun stealing role.
Originally, I was leaning toward Gonzaw being scum, but his posts have gotten more townie. However, he's still the most suspicious person, so I agree that we should have him shoot.
If we can't find an optimal person to shoot, I would encourage him to shoot into risk.nuke, Kenpachi, and payl.
Obviously we wouldn't allow him to choose who he shoots.
Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 11:17 MrZentor wrote:RoL talked about all the downsides of claiming millers, then claimed to be a miller. + Show Spoiler +On June 12 2012 09:50 marvellosity wrote:gonzaw, you've just made me read all the setup speculation on Millers. Damn thee. There is so much I do not like about the claim. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 04:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright, finished reading.
Any plan that involves millers and role checking is quite stupid. There are so many things that can interfere with proper results that it hinges on nothing. Anyone advocating some sort of role centric plan needs to shut up. It won't work, we don't even know if all the roles in the OP are the only roles in the game, but even from what we can tell it is still a crap shoot and it could only get worse.
I agree with what Chaoser said. If we think someone is scummy, we make them shoot who they think are scummy. If they can't shoot and can't explain themselves then we just kill them. Problem solved. On the off chance the DT figures out his sanity and claims to have found someone a Miller claim CANNOT absolve them. A DT will only get a red check back on non GF roles if his sanity is known. The non GF roles cannot shoot, so they would need to shoot to prove they are a Miller.
That claim can literally never work.
There is only one actual benefit of a Miller claiming in this set up. Hypothetically its day 5, we need to kill a mafia and the DT claims knowing his sanity and has a red check on someone. Assuming that person has NEVER shot during the day then he can now shoot to prove that he is not scum but a Miller. There is no way scum can emulate that play to the point where it would help a Miller to claim earlier on. The only thing that this helps is preventing a cop who knows there alignment to claiming publicly in that one very niche scenario.
In that scenario the N1 Miller claim would save the cop from going public. That is the only benefit. So does that single benefit justify having someone claim Miller? I can't see why someone would ever get shit for claiming Miller. The only mafia benefit to claiming Miller would be to avoid a RC but the only one who can do that is the GF who would get outed by a DT check and would prefer to get DT checked anyway.
The same thing applies to SK's.
Anyone faking Miller would eventually just get outed by some means and its not worth it. So I guess there is only that one benefit, but there is no real drawback besides people wasting time speculating on why someone claimed Miller.
But hey, since I outlined all the reasons above and there are no true drawbacks, might as well claim that I'm a Miller. Green text: Outlines in some depth how little benefit there is to Miller claiming in this setup. He calls the benefit a 'very niche' scenario. Red text: Having outlined why it's barely beneficial if at all to claim Miller, he leaps into categorically saying no-one should give miller claims any shit. Claims at the end he 'outlined all the reasons'. All the reasons? He clarified himself it would only help in a 'very niche scenario'. What gives? He then says mafia have no reason to fakeclaim miller. He's actively pushing this to discredit the notion. Blue text: Also see post below, but this looks like an attempt to halt any discussion of his miller claim. Because we're so busy on Night 0, right? Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already... yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho? It's not really a big deal. Half the reason I considered not claiming at all was just because I didn't think it was worth considering whether or not I was a Miller. I am sure if I continue being alive they will try to make me suspciious because of that. Or killing me, whatever. There is a chance that a medic could be on me because I claimed and they would be wasting their first hit. There is a number of things they have to take into account. Ultimately, I'm not really worried and whether I die or not its not that big of a deal. Again with the blue text, pushing the idea that talking about his claim is a bad thing. To the bold and underlined: twice he says his claim is not a big deal. More language in the middle with 'or killing me, whatever'. Basically totally flippant and acting unconcerned about it. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 06:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On June 12 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote:On June 12 2012 04:55 FreelanceSatan wrote:On June 12 2012 04:37 chaoser wrote:
Isn't it Night 0? As in mafia get to do night kills if they want to? why did RoL claim miller already... yeah i didnt even think about that..looks like he jumped the gun a bit there.. what are the chances the mafia would want to shoot him instead of shooting for blues tho? about 0. I actually thought there's no way that's really a claim because that would be stupid. Maybe it's a trick to survive d0? :p Let's start the wifom machine lol. And here comes that suspicion thing I was talking about. It's the only downside I perceived of claiming regardless of timing. Idiots will always over-analyze shit for no reason. However that wasn't something I could articulate without just saying people are dumb and we can't work around them being suspicious of a miller claim regardless of how illogical it is for any non-town person to do it. Look at the change in tone! From his original claim with his "hey, I guess I'll claim miller" casual attitude and subsequent post with the 'whatevers' and 'it's not a big deal' he fucking jumps down Toad's throat. Now he's again pushing the idea that even talking about his claim is a bad thing. He admits here that he forsaw people being suspicious of the claim. Yet in his original post, the only 'benefit' he saw was with a very niche day 5 cop scenario. RoL said elsewhere in his filter that we should be working off behavioural analysis. I agree. I'm not questioning the claim because he claimed Miller, I'm questioning how he's gone about it. Scum. He claimed to have his gun taken away, which is really suspicious as it sets him up to look exactly like a mafia goon (appears red and can't shoot), and it seems improbable that either mafia or sk would have this power. On June 12 2012 13:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well I was shot last night but survived. I also had my gun taken away which is quite interesting. These things coupled with the fact that he hasn't been around for the entire night makes me doubt his claim.
Would anybody else care to comment? Entire change of stance based on pithy reasoning which doesn't support the change in opinion. And even better, the later post which ends with "would anybody else care to comment?" showing that he's afraid to commit to the accusation and is instead throwing it out there and seeing if it gains traction. Scum. Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 23:40 MrZentor wrote:If you really want to shoot me or something at least wait 24 hours into D1 so you don't waste the whole day and so we can put some sense into you. His insistence on waiting until most of the day passes before shooting. I personally don't find people's opinion on certain plans (or policy lynches, etc) alignment telling at all. So no matter how much someone talks and talks about plans, I can't analyze their alignment based on their behaviour, if everybody else is discussing plans as well. This seems like the genuine thing a mafia wouldn't say. + Show Spoiler +What if all of us claim if we have a gun to shoot or not?
Like said before, most blue roles are not that strong (the good ones don't know their sanity); but the VT/Miller roles are the strongest since they control the "lynch", and are our only way to win this game (other than a random vigilante out there).
I think they did it like this:
1)Everybody claims if they have a gun or not
2)The people that claimed they have a gun, take turns each day to shoot the most scummy one from the pool of the guys that don't have a gun
Here we can use that "random thingy" site Palmar made for iGrok's game (if someone's good enough to copy the script and shit, maybe make it public):
Each day we make a list of all the people that claimed they have a gun, and randomize it. That way we randomly choose who to shoot from that list.
That way mafia can't try to fake-claim that they have a gun and manipulate their way to never shoot at all, because the process of choosing who to shoot is random so if it's their turn to shoot they can't get away with it (this will disencourage scum fake-claiming they have a gun).
This is the beauty from the plan:
Yes, all the VTs/Millers will be outed for SK/scum, and so will the blues....
...however the blues will be mostly intact and survive the whole game.
Why? Because in the pool of blues most of the scum (goon and RBers, etc) lurk. If they shoot blues at night, that pool is reduced so they have more chances of being shot at day.
Not only that, but because of what I said earlier they'll most likely shoot VTs (check that post I made).
So blues are free to make their actions at night (not all of them can be RBed, plus they shouldn't claim their roles either) to help us with what we can, while we systematically kill those scum in their group.
Once we kill all scum in the "blue" group (3 of them right?), we are set, leave the rest of those blues alone and take a look at the VT/Miller claims to get the GF and the SK.
Since only non-gunners will get shot at day, and only gunners will get shot at night by scum, the blues in the non-gunners group can use:
1)Their medic saves on the gunners
2)Their watcher/tracker/cop checks on the gunners
1)Because those are the only ones getting shot at night, so they have a greater chance to save them
2)Because once all the scum from the non-gunners are killed, we need to find the SK/GF. If blues check those players, then it's more likely they can find the SK/GF for us so we have it easier later.
That was the way it would work in the 1st game.
Now that I think about it the "SK or scum can steal guns at night" thing if RoL says the truth can change it a little bit
What do you guys think? Any way to improve it if it's worth it? Or is it unworthy? This is an excellent plan, which I believe would give town a great chance of winning; I doubt a mafia would suggest it.
Also, something I found along the way. Pretty sure
1) We'll run out of things to say or just go in circles
2) Ace will probably put a limit on like 48 hours and then we just "no shot" and move straight to night
3) Someone will probably get trigger happy and shoot anyway.
I want gonzaw to shoot. We already had 24 hours of discussion since night 0 happened, we've got our suspicions. Let's go gonzaw, chop chop. Chaoser wanted Gonzaw to shoot at dawn, effectively killing 24 hours of discussion. That's exactly what scum would want to happen. This post is 100% bullshit. "This seems like the genuine thing a mafia wouldn't say." What the fuck does that mean? And "This is an excellent plan, which I believe would give town a great chance of winning; I doubt a mafia would suggest it."? The plan was terrible...outing which townies could shoot and which could not? In any other context I would have taken MrZentor's comment to be sarcasm. And then another single sentence trying to paint chaoser with a bit of guilt for something that is frankly, trivial. I also have my eye on Toads, but I'll write more tomorrow.
Yet I don't see anything in there that really screams town to me. Also we have AGAIN this very short statement "I have my eye on Toad, but I'll write more tomorrow". He never ended up doing so.
His most recent post is again something extremly easy to do for a mafia, like doing a votecount: + Show Spoiler [click me] +On June 19 2012 01:31 payl wrote:
I will make the assumption that sk cannot shoot both day/night - that would be grossly unfair
- we have had two deaths every night except for n0 (where rol claimed hit) and n2 (where only mr wiggles died)
Two things I want today - before anyone shoots, give target of shot a chance to claim and defend himself
- if someone states they want to shoot you and you have a gun, do not immediately go ahead and shoot that person - that other player could possibly be misguided town rather than scum trying to pull a quick one
Obviously, nobody shoots rol. And rol should not be the shooter, we already know that he can shoot.
Since I expect the rest of you to try to draw conclusions based on gun claim information, I will now claim to be able to shoot. Since my claim is the latest, and arguably least trustworthy in this respect, I should be the actual shooter today. I will choose a tenative target to shoot in awhile.
Here's what we have:
rol has fired his gun
zealos, layabout, kenpachi, toads, payl claim to have guns
dirkzor, mrzentor have not claimed guns
I'd like to note that if we have a watcher or any other blue, then at least one player claiming to have a gun (that can shoot during the day) is lying.
The whole thing screams nothingness.
Payle is the best shot for today imo.
Zealos would be alternative #1. Layabout already posted everything about him. I only have about 30 mins left to shoot or I'm getting shot by him so I won't bother explaining thigs again. He is quite flavor-of-the-day as well and he's completly unable to explain why he thinks the way the hinks.
Dirkzor would be the 2nd alternative. I consider the read on him way worse than the one on Payl and Zealos, however he hasn't claimed so far and we're looking for a guy without a gun. Zentor probably is mafia if he doesn't have a gun but as long as he shoots tomorrow that's fine with me.
Conclusion:
I'd like to shoot payle in 30 minutes (22:00 GMT (+00:00) because Zealos said he's going to shoot me that time although I said I want to shoot 22:30 GMT (+00:00)....)
I'd say payle has a decent chance to flip lying mafia who has no gun or SK either way. He looks a lot like someone trying to not stick his head out to much. Especially in a 24hour cycle-game that is a strong strategy because you have only half the amount of time to figure things out and he's a smurf, so he probably knows that :p
If you guys don't want to let me shoot Payle I'd like to shoot Zealos instead. He still hasn't claimed wether or not he has a gun although he pressured me a lot, but that could be just pressure so far. So no taking stances their and I'd have to assume he does that on purpose so far.
If you have someone else tell me about that fast :p
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On June 19 2012 05:50 layabout wrote:
Toad, why is it so difficult for you to write in any level of detail about the other players in this game?
If i take a look at your old town games or even at the set-up talk from this game you tend to write an awful lot.
I just did... As mentioned I was watching the game.
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On June 19 2012 04:43 Toadesstern wrote:it's football time  Which means I'll have about 1 and a half hour left for analyzing and presenting my results in here. I already said Zealos looks scummy to me like he did in LV so I would like to shoot him if he has no gun. Zealos do you have a gun? You said you're willing to shoot me a lot but you never sad "yes I have a gun" or "no I don't have a gun".
I have a gun.
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Ideally payl would shoot zealos but i don't object to you shooting him toad
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I think Zealos would freak out if I ended up not shooting so I'd rather shoot myself.
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sooooo. I don't know what the wedding phrase is in english but if anyone has any regrets or anything that needs to be said before I'm going to shoot do so now. I'm waiting until 22:00 GMT (+00:00) as mentioned and I'm going to shoot Payl.
I'd like it if Zealos could manage to give me a +15 minutes margin in case of me not shooting for whatever reason. I'm not giong to sit here and wait for the "deadline" I just set myself but I'm going to shoot about that time.
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My notes on payl:
makes valid points about zentor
may want to kill toad
lurker
claims he can shoot
I feel like i am missing something....
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On June 19 2012 06:08 Toadesstern wrote:
sooooo. I don't know what the wedding phrase is in english but if anyone has any regrets or anything that needs to be said before I'm going to shoot do so now. I'm waiting until 22:00 GMT (+00:00) as mentioned and I'm going to shoot Payl.
I'd like it if Zealos could manage to give me a +15 minutes margin in case of me not shooting for whatever reason. I'm not giong to sit here and wait for the "deadline" I just set myself but I'm going to shoot about that time.
Your given deadline was 23. I gave you 30 mins margin.
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QUOTE]On June 15 2012 07:57 Cephiro wrote:
EBWOP: Leaving in 15 minutes, so if you have anything you want to ask, use that time. If today's shot is going to be between payl/Zentor, I'd rather see payl shot.[/QUOTE]
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EBWOP
On June 15 2012 07:57 Cephiro wrote:
EBWOP: Leaving in 15 minutes, so if you have anything you want to ask, use that time. If today's shot is going to be between payl/Zentor, I'd rather see payl shot.
well this is sorta shitty timing
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Let's see the result of the shot before we get too upset about it.
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On June 19 2012 06:36 Zealos wrote:
Let's see the result of the shot before we get too upset about it.
with respect i woulod like to wifom some more
On June 17 2012 02:49 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 03:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
As I've stated before, I think payl needs to die as well Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 04:49 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
And marv, would you be happy if we had payl shoot zentor or vice versa? Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 07:59 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I'd like you to shoot payl right now. Show nested quote +On June 15 2012 08:43 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Go with payl. He's the guy who I feel like supersoft is try the hardest to shift focus away from. Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 02:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Tomorrow we'll have toad shoot payl. From there we move to kita. Eight different times you mention how you want payl dead. Based on the number of times you request his death, you seem pretty confident. So why are you shooting the only player to hit scum? The previous game Occam's razor was your best friend, but now you're convinced he is scum. Why are you shooting at 3am in the morning? If you truly felt you were about to snipe the godfather, why aren't you interested in seeing how other people react? Did you just figure your time was up based on my post before the night and wanted to get the shot in before I could hit you?
every spoiler clicked is like a slap in the face
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Day 5
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/YvIrFl.jpg)
payl the Vanilla Townie has been killed.
It is now Night 5 with 7 players alive. The night ends at 4:00 AM ET / 17:00 KST. Good luck!
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*facepalm
:7
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Remember that tomorrow might be lylo. I think that one of these zealos and kenpachi need to die tomorrow.
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since no one has claimed roleblock since wbg (me) day1 we (or at least I) can infer that mafia have been roleblocking and killing their targets+ Show Spoiler + or they have been roleblocking people that decided not to claim because of....
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Payl if my conversation with toad wasnt clear enough I have a gun.
I think kenpachi should shoot zealos tomorrow but I would be fine with shooting him myself.
I am probably not going to be as active as usual because my wifi is down and to access the internet I have to go outside and steal my neighbor's wifi.
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EPT
