EPTNewbie Mini XIV
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I typically work from 7pm to 3am EST, if we can find a deadline that doesn't occur in that range that would be ideal. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I agree that last minute roleclaims or bandwagons are a bad idea if we set it up at this time. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
People who still haven't posted since the Day 1 post: -Golden -hegeo -ShiaoPi I'd really like these three players to check in at the very least, if not start to put some information out there. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say. sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
ShiaoPi- While sciberbia's posting content was a bit suspect, I wouldn't read too much into his absence. He did state in his post that he was about to get some sleep. Let's hear what he has to say. Golden- This early in the game I think any town reads are going to be weak, so I don't see much value in posting them. We have to remember that mafia have 90% of the information here. Posting town reads can just cut into the 10% that they don't know. If there is a time when it's important that we post such information (e.g. we think we're about to die, we think the town is about to mislynch) then by all means post it, but right now is not one of those crucial times. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
With the discussion generated I think there is finally enough info for me to start making cases. I'm currently reading through people's filters and making notes on them. I'll post again soon with my scum reads. I'm getting more and more confident that I have a couple solid cases to make. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
s0Lstice Miltonkram confuses me. You say you don't want people to share town reads because it's giving information to the mafia. What? Scum know who is town and who is not. Scumhunting is ALL ABOUT posting your reads on people. They are accused, and must defend. You smell fishy to me Milton. ##FOS: Miltonkram Note that I'm not complaining about his suspicions of me. I think his suspicions are actually a good townie move. His statement about accusations and defense is really good too. This first post is consistent with good townie play. However, an hour later, without even waiting for my defense he posts: I will be away for a few hours, but before I go I do think I read Milton's point the wrong way. It was: a townie posting a read of any kind, vs. a read declaring someone as town. I went with the former, which as sciberbia pointed out wasn't the intent. I will.. ## unFOS: Miltonkram ...for the time being. I'll go over his filter again when back, and see if I agree with sciberbia's latest post. My point is he should have kept pressuring me. I realize that he misread my post somewhat, but he uses that last line of text to look like he's still pressuring me in some way. I think a townie would leave the FOS on me until I've actually done something to defend myself. Right now it seems like he's trying to apply just enough pressure to appear town, without actually committing to it. That's consistent with scum play in my eyes. ##FOS: s0Lstice | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On May 23 2012 07:12 ShiaoPi wrote: Regarding my "knee-jerk": I'll just quote my answer to hegeo: + Show Spoiler + I believe it to be a good defense. It is Day 1, nobody is confirmed town until he flips, so why should I not throw the ball at you for a bit, while I answered your main question, which was "how come that you drop your suspicions on sciberba that easily?" That it came over slightly discrediting against you is part of it. As it seemed like you checked the filters of everyone in terms of length. I see no logic behind building a case on a small filter size, when first of your own filter is not that big and secondly there are people with even smaller filters (see Mufaa). Contributionwise I admit that there was not much from me yet. I gave my opinion on the cases others have posted and pointed out that we have a hardcore-lurker (which is more than just a "half-baked metacomment") right now. Really contributing as in lots of activity and some cases, are Release, sciberbia, hegeo and Mordanis. That makes 3 other people besides yourself, whose list of contributions is just as "meager" as mine and still you do not tunnel them. Why? Because of my small filter? But what about Mufaa's? Your argument of small filter = scum/should be pressured seems to go haywire with your case against me, so I naturally suspect you. At this point ShiaoPi seems like he is just treading water. I think he's either bad town or panicking mafia. Please note the sections that I have bolded in his quote. He never addresses the fact that he's being attacked because his posts lack content. He keeps trying to focus attention on other players as a means of defending himself, rather than actually defending himself with content. Then he makes a list of active players, in order to make himself look like he's accomplishing something. How much does that list actually accomplish? If you look over his filter, how many people has he actually put real pressure on? He put some very weak pressure on hegeo, only after Mordanis pressured him first. He's been gunning for Mufaa, a very easy player to gun for since he's lurking like crazy. @ s0Lstice- Thank you for clearing up why you were suspicious of me. I'm still not sure you're town, but at the very least that clears up some of my suspicions. For now I'm lessening my focus on you and shifting it to ShiaoPi. ##unFOS: s0Lstice ##FOS: ShiaoPi | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
@ Mufaa- If you want me to change my vote for you, you better get in here and start posting. It's really hard to have good town play if even one person is lurking. ##Vote: Mufaa This is something I think everyone should keep in mind. We only have one player who is hardcore lurking. That means we have at least one mafia who is staying fairly active in the thread. I need some more time to think this line of thought through (What kind of active town benefits a mafia? What can we do to prevent that kind of town from happening?), but it's good to keep in mind when reading through a player's filter. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
First you stated about me: Just to state the facts. His first few points were very summary-esque. I'm wary of these sorts of posts early in game as it means a player can conceal their views and reveal them at a later date when real discussion is happening. It gives the impression that he is contributing whereas he is actually delaying input so to clutter later on. The intention of my posts was to generate pressure and discussion. This being my first game, I felt that things such as the list I made and the pressure on sciberbia would be viewed as more threatening than they were actually taken. I believe s0Lstice used the term "weaksauce" to describe them, and looking back, I'm going to have to agree with him. In short, I think you're making a big deal out of some town play of mine that was admittedly less than stellar. The next part of your post states: he moves to pressure s0lstice. (after s0lstice posted, then removed his #FOS) in what i see as a defensive measure under the "rationale" that s0lstice should have continued with his pressure. it is my opinion that he did this to cement his 'innocence' by 'promoting' a more thorough pressuring in future. next. after his accusation of s0lstice (FOR ALTERNATING HIS #FOS TO QUICKLY) do you know what he does? His next post in his filter is moving his defensive #FOS against s0lstice (quite hypocritically i might add) onto another player (ShiaoPi). This next part is actually kind of funny, it was a reading comprehension error on my part, a reading comprehension error of his reading comprehension error. I thought it was crazy how flimsy his FOS was, I feel a bit stupid now that I realize what he was saying. Essentially, I did the exact same thing to him that he did to me. As for the last part of your post towards me: he avoids his next suspicion (ShiaoPi) and jumps on a bandwagon of voting against Mufaa. (which i'm fine with, except for the context its in) I feel that Miltonkram's play is quite scummy. I want you to know that I am still gunning for ShiaoPi. I hope we don't have to lynch Mufaa, but he needs to know that my vote for him will stand until he starts posting or I think he'll get modkilled/replaced. Right now, I'm going to continue pressuring ShiaoPi. Even if we don't lynch him today, our late game will be much better if we can get him to post something other than his wishy-washy defensive play. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I've already explained my line of reasoning. My pressure on s0Lstice was a mistake on my part, simple as that. I'm willing to switch my vote on Mufaa, since I think he will be replaced/modkilled. All people had been saying up to that point in time amounted to, "Mufaa, we'd really like to hear from you." I wanted to see if he would make a response to some real pressure. I think we can agree that voting for someone is the most pressure you can put on them. At the time I was trying to do two things at once, pressure ShiaoPi and pressure Mufaa. I guess I didn't make it clear what I was doing. Also, I hadn't considered this: ---snip Also, get your votes off Mufaa. He will be replaced/modkilled if he doesn't do crap. Otherwise, we can lynch him D2. He's guaranteed to be lynched D2 if he does pop in to vote, so I won't concern myself with him anymore. My top scumread is still ShiaoPi. Essentially, he plays scum exactly how I would. His entire D1 posts have been pretty wishy-washy and noncommittal, allowing him freedom later in the game because he hasn't actually tied himself strongly to the information or accusations in any of his posts. With that in mind let's look at his first post. + Show Spoiler + Just came back from university. First of all we should definetly go for a lynch, no-lynch is (at least in my opinion) utter nonsense. Regarding Lurkers, I believe that they should be put under suspicion especially in a 9 player setup. I was in the same game as mufaa and lurking screwed us over pretty badly in a 13 player game. I must say I really like release's approach until now, we won't get anything worthwhile from just being nice to each other. Pressuring is a great way to get some more information and should be utilizied. The only slightly suspicious thing until now was sciberbia's long post and his absence since then, but until he responds there is nothing to make of it. Here's what he does, he compliments the most active player early on (Release) and talks about playstyle. Then he adds some weak suspicions toward sciberbia. Suspicion that he can easily back down from, and that certainly isn't breaking any new ground. Wait, doesn't this sound a lot like another early post? + Show Spoiler + Release- I like the way you're starting out this game. If we are going to catch scum we need to be aggressive about it. Don't worry too much about the tone of your posts. sciberbia's post does seem a bit suspicious. He repeats his ideas several times in different ways to make it look like he's putting out more info than he actually is. It seems quite scummy to me. Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say. sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary. That's right, his entire first post is a rehash of one of my first posts. A post I made before him. If my first post wasn't breaking any new ground, his certainly wasn't. It seems a good way to blend in with the crowd without sticking his neck out there. He goes on to immediately back down from his pressure with this post. + Show Spoiler + Maybe I should have rephrased my post on the suspicions towards you Sciberbia: I was not that much concerned about your absence but just on the amount of seemingly "useless" things within the post. Don't see anything wrong with your elaborations on it now. Here we get the first taste of ShiaoPi's tactic. He pressures someone and then states, "Oh, I wasn't actually pressuring you." It seems like a good way to blend in while also "contributing" as scum. This is just the first instance of his noncommittal aggression. Let's look at his suspicions of hegeo. + Show Spoiler + [quote]I am unsure what to make of hegeo. The one thing which seems suspicious to me is his timing after being called out, the other stuff could easily be bad townie or careful day 1 play. Seeing that I am getting flak for my style it is easy to see why he gets thoroughly investigated now. What stands out from his posts is the analytical part. It seems to be lacking solidity to make the longer posts which he does not really support (see: + Show Spoiler +) Basing from this statement he must himself believe to have solid cases going with his "wall of texts", but in my opinion they are not solid at all.[quote] Once again this is "suspicion" that he doesn't actually have to commit to, and he hopes he won't be held accountable for. I would ask you all this, who would be more damaging as scum? The actions I've taken in the game have all been actions that I've committed to. (barring the mistake I made with s0Lstice, but that was just me being dumb.) You can actually tie me to what I've written and hold me accountable later in the game, whereas ShiaoPi seems to have some sort of "escape clause" in almost every single one of his posts. The only thing he's been adamant about has been his FOS of s0Lstice, and that pressure has a built in escape to it, seeing as he can excuse himself by saying that s0Lstice had pressured him first. Anyway, what are people's thoughts on this? Seeing as I'll be away for an hour or two I'm going to go ahead and vote. ##unVote: Mufaa ##Vote: ShiaoPi | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
-Lurk until there is pressure on you -Respond to pressure with mostly defensive statements -When that doesn't work, begin to put counter-pressure on your attacker -Bandwagon on me once you see that I'm a prime lynch I'd post more direct analysis, but once again, time is running short. Everyone, I hope you can figure out why this is scummy activity in my eyes. If I get lynched today, I hope you keep this in mind. The pressure seems to be off ShiaoPi right now, so unless I can miraculously convince you all to vote for him I guess I'll have to switch my targets. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##unVote: ShiaoPi ##Vote: hegeo For the record, if you lynch me and see me flip town, that doesn't mean hegeo is mafia. Too much of his case has been circumstantial, and too much of it has been just a few vocal players tunneling him. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Mafia + Mafia Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely. Townie + Townie If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M. Townie + Mafia Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation. That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone? | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Let me restate this plainly: I don't think both of you are mafia. I don't think both of you are town. I think one of you is mafia and one of you is town. I believe this for the reasons I stated in my last long post. On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote: ---snip Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch? Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched. This is so full of shit and scum. No, of course I don't think lynching is completely random. I was shortening my reasoning because it wasn't the main thrust of my post. If we did just flip a coin deciding to lynch you or Mordanis, I say we'd have a 50/50 chance to hit mafia. We can do better than that though, with good analysis we'll find out which one of you is scum. On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote: ---snip And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you? Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself. ##FOS: Milton Holy crap, stop playing so defensively. I'm not even sure if you're the half of the duo that's scum. I'm just laying the groundwork for my analysis of your (you and Mordanis's) posting. Also stop labeling any analysis you disagree with as WIFOM. I think you may be the one who doesn't understand its definition. Since Release seems impervious to reason, I'll put this out to the rest of the town. I don't care if you think I'm scum or not, the points I made in my post were good ones. Do you disagree with the assumptions I'm making? If you do it's best to speak up now, because I plan on basing my later analysis on these assumptions. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
However, you're still ignoring the main thrust of my post. One of you is town and one of you is mafia. All I'm getting from you is that you're scared because I've made the right assumption. Let's look at your response to my post: + Show Spoiler + On May 25 2012 06:12 Miltonkram wrote: I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances. Mafia + Mafia Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely. Townie + Townie If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M. Townie + Mafia Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation. That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone? Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch? Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched. This is so full of shit and scum. Mafia + Mafia: No. I have already posted on what the Mafia were actually doing when i was roasting hegeo: The Mafia were trying to split our attention between two cases (Hegeo vs Milton/ShiaoPi/Solstice). Then you post some WIFOM filler (not a big deal since you actually posted some analysis) Townie + Townie: Who's been playing scummy since hegeo's reveal? Mordanis knee-jerked, not me. I posted an analytical response to hegeo's post and why the new guy was playing rather poorly. Also, i was the only one to point out that Hegeo's post mysteriously did not have a #5. Townie + Mafia: Mordanis and i both had our own separate cases against Hegeo. There was a small overlap, but we had our own ideas, just against the same person. When that happens, it tends to look bad for that person. Note that i am not refuting either of TT or TM yet, just pointing out the misinformation you are posting. And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you? Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself. ##FOS: Milton It seems you mistook my analysis for a post that was directly pressuring you, which it wasn't. There are a few possible explanations for that: 1. You're mafia and my line of thought is causing you to panic or, 2. you're town and you misunderstood the point of my post. Everything you've been posting seems like a delaying tactic to me. Just give me some time to look through you and Mordanis's filters and let me make my case. Unless you're mafia, then you can keep trying to delay my analysis post, but I'm going to ignore you until the town has my scumread. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
-ShiaoPi: I think he excuses his scummy play by calling it play style. He came into the game with lurker/defensive play in mind, and only after he realized such play wouldn't cut it did he really get active. -Release/Mordanis: I'm not sure which one of these is scum, but I'm convinced that one of them used the other to cover their scumminess. Lastly, I've defended my play here: + Show Spoiler + On May 23 2012 19:02 @ Golden- You raise several good points, and I will do my best to explain my line of thinking. First you stated about me: The intention of my posts was to generate pressure and discussion. This being my first game, I felt that things such as the list I made and the pressure on sciberbia would be viewed as more threatening than they were actually taken. I believe s0Lstice used the term "weaksauce" to describe them, and looking back, I'm going to have to agree with him. In short, I think you're making a big deal out of some town play of mine that was admittedly less than stellar. The next part of your post states: This next part is actually kind of funny, it was a reading comprehension error on my part, a reading comprehension error of his reading comprehension error. I thought it was crazy how flimsy his FOS was, I feel a bit stupid now that I realize what he was saying. Essentially, I did the exact same thing to him that he did to me. As for the last part of your post towards me: I want you to know that I am still gunning for ShiaoPi. I hope we don't have to lynch Mufaa, but he needs to know that my vote for him will stand until he starts posting or I think he'll get modkilled/replaced. Right now, I'm going to continue pressuring ShiaoPi. Even if we don't lynch him today, our late game will be much better if we can get him to post something other than his wishy-washy defensive play. If you still have a problem with my defense that's fine. Quite honestly, I'm kind of expecting to get lynched tonight anyway. Maybe when/if I get lynched it will be for the best and people will actually take my accusations seriously, but I'm going to continue to play the best I can no matter what. I'll be back in a little while. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Release He started the game fairly aggressive out of the gate. He showed he was willing to pressure people, almost too willing, because I was starting not to take his pressure seriously. Other than that he did his best to cut through the generic fluff questions that sometimes bog down early newbie games (Lynch v. no-lynch? Should we roleclaim early? etc.). True, some of the stuff he posted was fluff, such as this, + Show Spoiler + First bold: Logical, a bit obvious, but should be stated. Second bold: Are you saying that townies will always show townie posts? This is certainly not the case. Townies can and do make mistakes, which is probably the cause of 99% of mislynches in mafia. Honest =/= True. For example, if you are being "honest" in this post, you have clearly made a "mistake." Is that to suggest that you are Mafia? A better word for "mistake" in this context is "slip", and i advise people to use slip in the future because it more accurately denotes what a bad mafia would do. but almost all his other content early D1 seems like aggressive townie play to me. Moving on to N1/D2: There are two scummy actions from him. First, he brings attention back on me. If he's mafia, it's because I'm an easy target that he won't get much flak for targeting. If he's town, it's because he doesn't want the town to forget my case in the commotion. There's no sense reading too much into it. Everyone thinks I'm scum and a healthy town environment shouldn't let me crawl between the floorboards. His second scummy action was in response to my post + Show Spoiler + I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances. Mafia + Mafia Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely. Townie + Townie If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M. Townie + Mafia Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation. That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone? in which I'm explaining the assumptions for D2 lynch that I would be working from. He posts this in response + Show Spoiler + Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch? Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched. This is so full of shit and scum. Mafia + Mafia: No. I have already posted on what the Mafia were actually doing when i was roasting hegeo: The Mafia were trying to split our attention between two cases (Hegeo vs Milton/ShiaoPi/Solstice). Then you post some WIFOM filler (not a big deal since you actually posted some analysis) Townie + Townie: Who's been playing scummy since hegeo's reveal? Mordanis knee-jerked, not me. I posted an analytical response to hegeo's post and why the new guy was playing rather poorly. Also, i was the only one to point out that Hegeo's post mysteriously did not have a #5. Townie + Mafia: Mordanis and i both had our own separate cases against Hegeo. There was a small overlap, but we had our own ideas, just against the same person. When that happens, it tends to look bad for that person. Note that i am not refuting either of TT or TM yet, just pointing out the misinformation you are posting. And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you? Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself. ##FOS: Milton which seems like it could be a delaying tactic, keeping me from following his case based on my assumptions. Since I didn't outright state my goal with that post, (to lay a foundation for the analysis I'm doing now) I will give him the benefit of the doubt. He could very well have mistook the intention of my post. I post this now because if Release is scum, these are a few points of play that look scummy to me. It is important that we continue to keep an eye on him. The most important part of the post I'm making now is right here: I can't make a strong case for Release being mafia, but I'm confident I can make a case against Mordanis. I've been reading through his filter for the past couple hours, and I've made decent headway into my analysis of his actions. Once again, I believe one of the duo (Release, Mordanis) is scum. I'm pretty sure Mordanis is the scum half of that duo based on what I've read in his filter. My next post will include my full accusations against him. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
@ s0Lstice- I think your post has merit, but I will need to re-read it a few times to make sure it holds up. My accusations of Mordanis are only half complete. I will finish them after I get back from work and before I go to sleep. Also, where the hell is skware? I hope we didn't replace a lurker just to get another one. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Their their s0Lstice, don't be too hard on yourself, their their.........hehehe | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Mordanis Analysis of his D1 play: The back and forth between Release and Mordanis at the start of D1 has been well documented. It ended well, pushed through discussion of town policy pretty quickly, and got us scumhunting about as fast as could be hoped. The only thing people may have missed was this little gem. ---snip First off, let me say that I'm glad for your early FOS. I was trying to think of a way to get the ball rolling and I just couldn't figure out how to do it. Let me try to clear up any confusion now though ^^ The reason I mentioned the last game I played is because it was the only game I've ever played before. To me it seems that referencing my only experience is quite logical. If it doesn't seem logical, I apologize! My reference was only a way for me to explain what I thought and why. Note the weak tone he takes with Release. He first thanks Release for the FOS. I see possible townie and scummy motives for this move. Scummy because he thinks overtly welcoming suspicion will lessen the pressure on him, or townie because the FOS really did help move forward discussion. Either way it's a weird play. The really good part is his apology. Let's think, what does he have to apologize for? Why would he apologize for this?-->+ Show Spoiler + So my last game began with a discussion of whether to vote or not that wasn't very productive. We got lucky and scored a good D1 lynch, but it felt very, well, luck based. So I'll start this out by saying that if we don't lynch today, we'll probably be in a really shitty situation. In short, I am for a vote today. Also, it's good to be working together with Golden again! For Liquidia! Is this day cycle going to be an extra couple of hours? I only ask because it was in my first game and I'd like to make sure what the situation is. Thanks Next let's take a look at the times Mordanis's emotions come into play: What were the circumstances of Mordanis's first emotional response to something? Sciberbia had posted this + Show Spoiler + My thoughts on Mordanis's accusation of hegeo: Your primary accusation and most tangible peace of evidence is that hegeo's first post was 10 minutes after Milton called out the three people left to post. I don't find this very inciminating. If hegeo was mafia and worried about looking like a lurker, he'd just have posted a fluffy sorta "hi all" first post, similar to Milton, solstice etc. If he's mafia and not that worried about looking like a lurker, why would he panic so much? It just doesn't make much sense to me. If you were mafia, would you watch the thread, wait until someone calls you out as lurking, and then post 10 minutes later? Seems dumb. I see where you're coming from, and I agree it's a bit fishy, but I guess I'm just more willing to believe it's a coincadence than you are. And I liked the actual content of his first post. Mordanis, your statement about working with Golden struck me strangely as well. I was expecting someone to comment on it. And it makes sense that he would criticize you because you had just accused him. Doesn't seem odd to me. His defense is a litte weird, but I don't find it particularly scummy. I'm really not quite sure what to make of his post about Release. I could see him posting it as either town or mafia. Also, you say that he isn't helping scumhunt, but he just assembled some evidence against shiaopi. Personally, I would be willing to vote for hegeo if it was between that and no-lynch, but I think we have better options. I don't really have a read on hegeo. I'll think about it more tomorrow if he's still in contention for lynching. I encourage everyone to weigh in as we have have quite a few accusations. which amounted to questioning the reasoning behind Mordanis's pressure on hegeo, to which Mordanis responds @Sciberia IDK how many games you've played, but this is not a very high level game. It is not even remotely inconceivable that an inexperienced mafia could panic, and then make an excuse for why he acted that way. I also included a fair amount of analysis of his posts, which seemed scummy to me. Compare my post to Hegeo's accusation of ShiaoPi. I have one solid fact and a lot of solid analysis. Hegeo just points out that ShiaoPi has a lot of filler content. Usefull information, but not very deep analysis. Also, I was posting that as much to generate discussion as much as to gather support for a lynch. It's early on in the game, but if we don't start throwing some accusations around then we'll be mired in inactivity, while the mafia picks us off one by one. And I don't see anyone you are considering lynching in your post. About Golden, I played with him in our last game. It's nice to see a familiar face. That's the only reason why. Basic human needs and such. The last four lines are jumbled between what I said and what other people said. I didn't understand them. If you'd clarify I'd love to comment on them as well. One final thing: I think the whole passive-aggressive thing needs to end. I understand that you don't want to be lynched (neither do I), but just being angry at one person for the sake of being angry doesn't help anything. with a decent, but not great rebuttal of sciberbia's points. How did he perceive anger in sciberbia's post? What does calling the post "passive-aggressive" accomplish him? One thing it does is draw attention away from the actual content of sciberbia's post (calling Mordanis's case on hegeo based too much on coincidence) and brings it onto the emotional elements of the two players posting. The second case of Mordanis's emotion is in response to hegeo after hegeo (badly) tries to defend himself. Still hegeo's defense wasn't completely terrible. I think Mordanis once again saw information in a post that didn't fit in with his plan and thus distracted from it by simplifying the offending post and calling it passive-aggressive. This does two things, in the mind it amplifies the passive-aggressive parts of what hegeo had written and lessens the importance of any logical points hegeo may have made. Final point on Mordanis's play: This point may be circumstantial, and I believe Release may have already made it. Forgive me if that's the case, I'm incredibly tired and I want to get some sleep. Mordanis pointed out hegeo's play first, but Release was the first to actually vote for hegeo. Think about it from a scum's perspective, pointing out a non-contributing or suspicious player is great to gain townie cred, but being the first to vote for a townie seems like it will bring intense scrutiny. This may be approaching WIFOM, but at this point I'm so tired I just hope my points make sense. Thoughts on this town? Any explanations for your play Mordanis? | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Is that your defense? If I may, let me sum it up. You think your scumhunting style is simply different than everyone else. Apparently you don't see the point of pressuring multiple people. Everything else is wishy-washy filler in your first statement. In your second statement, you claim scum is taking pressure off themselves by focusing on you and calling your content filler. Let me refute your statements. If you only ever pressure one person, how do you know who the other scum is? Tunneling one player does not give the town all the information it needs. You also conveniently ignore the main point brought against you by s0Lstice and Mordanis. You have only pressured people who already have pressure on them. You haven't brought new information to the table. Why? If you're calling that play style, I'd say you have a pretty scummy play style. In regards to your second point, if you are town of course mafia is deflecting pressure onto you. That's an easy assumption to make and it's no substitute for a strong defense. Overall, I'd say your defense is absurdly weak. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + @s0lstice. 1. Scumhunting: You're saying that i havent been searching for scum? I've read as much of this thread as you have. Are you saying that i'm not scumhunting because i have focussed on a single player instead of flipping between several all the time. Accusing everyone? It's my opinion that there are different roles of town, and not every town needs to be flinging shit at everyone. Whether or not Release is a town, he's been doing this just fine. I initially got a town vibe from him but because of the Mordanis/Release link i'm still uncertain of his loyalty. I digress. 2. Accountability: yes i must admit i did plan on posting a more in depth post on the issue. And in hindsight its very stupid i didnt because now my case i easily tainted if i was on the right track. eg. if YOU s0lstice and milton were mafia this is a perfect deflection, "omg, where is your argument on milton.. you must be making filler" if you were to pick me for accountability can i point you to this filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=154712 if anyone should be accountable it should be Mufaa's replacement. he has a total of 4 very small posts. perhaps there is a reason mufaa wasn't modkilled. my argument on Milton still stands. i should be online for a little longer. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
We don't gain much info from him if he flips either way, under that line of reasoning he could very well be scum. Thoughts? Golden's defense does not satisfy me, and that leads me to believe he's having difficulty figuring out a way to defend his actions. With that in mind ##Vote: O.Golden_ne If we decide that skware is the policy lynch I will switch my vote to him. Mordanis, I want to hear a defense from you, otherwise I will consider switching my vote to you. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Also, I really want to get the skware situation decided quickly. What are your thoughts on it? Let's get this out of the way now so we can focus on solid cases again. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
---snip If you don't believe hegeo was scum, don't vote him. But you seem keen on joining the bandwagon for him. Also, no analysis here: so you don't have to defend yourself against false analysis and to claim that you just want a majority vote. This is pure bullshit. Why would I want the town to mislynch me? The only two cases with real weight behind them at the time were mine and hegeo's. I didn't think hegeo's case was great, but with the town so divided, voting for him was still better than a no-lynch. There was still the possibility in my mind that he was mafia so why take actions, such as not voting for him, that would automatically get me lynched? If my play was good town play, I would vote for hegeo. If my play was good scum play, I would vote for hegeo. This holds no water. ---snip A vote on Golden as well as some random talk about lynching Skware. Like with mufaa, we don't need to worry about Skware until he disappears and probably gets modkilled. Then, you make a sentence which essentially gives you an opportunity to jump on a Mordanis bandwagon, should it start. I thought Golden's case was the more likely one. Do I wish I'd voted on Mordanis now? Hell yes, but that doesn't change the fact that Golden's play and his defense were seriously lacking. Also, why would you assume that skware is getting modkilled when he's posted and he's voted? He's not getting modkilled therefore we actually have to pay attention to him. That's why I posted what I did. We've put off a lurker lynch for two days and it's coming back to bite us in the ass. If he's mafia, we've let him off the hook for two days in a row. I don't think it's bad play to assume he counted on that. Your case against me is a good deal worse than many of the cases you've made in the past. I don't really understand it but I will do my best to refute it when I have the time. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
@ Mordanis- I guess that's why Lynch All Lurkers is a policy. I don't know what we're supposed to do about skware now with the game on the line. Spoilered because it's mostly sentiment + Show Spoiler + One or two helpful posts from him yesterday could have really helped, or maybe explained a lot about his vote for Release. Shot-in-the-dark lynch just doesn't seem like a good way to possibly end the game. Coping with this situation has got me feeling really bummed out. Skware, if you actually read this I hope you contribute today. Is your best idea of contribution really four short posts and a (bad) vote? Mafia is already a difficult game without you lurking like crazy. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Get online and stay online for the thirty minutes before the deadline. I don't give a shit if you have to tell your boss you're taking a shit or having to set an alarm for the middle of the night. Get online. @ Release- Amen to that. At least there's something we can agree on. For this lynch I've gone entirely back to square 1. I'm trying to let go of all assumptions I've made so far, they certainly haven't helped me this game. As far as I can tell there are a couple of possible scenarios. A Mordanis/ShiaoPi scum team makes the most sense to me. Both made some strange plays D1, ShiaoPi with the defense of his game play and Mordanis with his "emotions." However, all that depends entirely on skware not being mafia. If, and this is a big if, skware's lurking has been intentional a few possibilities emerge. From a pure game plan standpoint it would make sense for scum to have one player lurk and one player be really active. If that's the case, scum teams of Release/skware or Mordanis/skware make sense. I need to read over the filters with this line of thought in mind. I'll post again when I think I have the answers. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Right now, all we can do is to keep a placeholder vote on Skware. ##unvote ##vote Skware i am scum + Show Spoiler + Bet you never red that in mafia before. @ Release, I'm assuming that's a joke. It is pretty funny, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. There is a reason lynch all liars is a policy though, so try and make sure it's obvious that you're joking in the future. After looking through the filters, every possible scum pair that makes sense besides Release/skware involves Mordanis. Mordanis/ShiaoPi makes sense. Mordanis/skware makes sense. Release if you're scum I tip my hat to you. If that's the case, you've certainly fooled me. ##Vote: Mordanis | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##Vote: skware | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Thanks for hosting VE. I had a lot of fun even though I don't feel satisfied with the way this ended. | ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
| ||
|
Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Sciberbia you have no idea how much you freaked me out with that analysis post on me. It was like you were living inside my head. Good job with that one. You got me feeling really nervous  | ||
| ||
