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On May 23 2012 03:12 slOosh wrote:
slOosh's meta seems off
I was typing up a whole explanation but I realized it doesn't really help us find the anti-town players so I'll just say that my play here probably looks much more like my play in TL Mafia LI, where I was shot N1 as a blue suspect (due to thread presence drop). I'm always hungry for direction and am not really that confident in giving it myself in new situations (in LI it was due to the sheer size, this game is due to PYP aspect), thus the blatant sheeping on my town read. Nevertheless, I ease into games and as more time passes no doubt you will see more activity / discussion and whatnot from me.
Night Kills
N1: Talismania the witch and PaqMan (vanilla) died. There is 1 unaccounted KP, most likely explained by scum shooting the SK, as no one has claimed the shot, indicating that either Talismania did not use his power or chose not to give the potion after seeing the death list.
N2: Bluelightz died and Zephirdd claimed the second shot.
Conclusion: The last mafia knows the identity of the SK and will no doubt want him alive to help whittle down town numbers. There is no janitor in the game as N1 and N2 are the most optimal uses of it. Along those lines a copycat CPR is highly unlikely as the only way to attribute the lack of KP is that both scum and SK chose the same kill target two days in a row.
Additional side note: I don't think people have given Bluelight's case on Barundar as much consideration as it deserves. He is the role-cop and no doubt he would have utilized his check on someone he found suspicious, and a good portion of N1 discussions were centered around Barundar.
Role Claim
I am actually very eager to role claim. I will however hold back because of the tiered system, plus my claim is worth some discussion and would not like clashes / misdirection to occur in the thread.
At this point in the game, the unknowns are slOosh (me), Misder, Barundar and hiro's role claims. Everyone else has claimed something (whether they are lying or not is a different point).
Pre-edit: saw the thread and yea I guess I'll just claim in the next post I make.
You have the night kills wrong. Zephirdd claimed the third hit on N1; we are still missing a KP for N2.
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On May 23 2012 03:10 Misder wrote:
I'm roleblocker (obviously blocked Palmar N1 and hiro N2).
To SlOosh.
Can you explain your roleblocks?
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Your conclusion still stands.
Barundar needs to claim.
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On May 23 2012 03:23 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 03:12 slOosh wrote:
slOosh's meta seems off
I was typing up a whole explanation but I realized it doesn't really help us find the anti-town players so I'll just say that my play here probably looks much more like my play in TL Mafia LI, where I was shot N1 as a blue suspect (due to thread presence drop). I'm always hungry for direction and am not really that confident in giving it myself in new situations (in LI it was due to the sheer size, this game is due to PYP aspect), thus the blatant sheeping on my town read. Nevertheless, I ease into games and as more time passes no doubt you will see more activity / discussion and whatnot from me.
Night Kills
N1: Talismania the witch and PaqMan (vanilla) died. There is 1 unaccounted KP, most likely explained by scum shooting the SK, as no one has claimed the shot, indicating that either Talismania did not use his power or chose not to give the potion after seeing the death list.
N2: Bluelightz died and Zephirdd claimed the second shot.
Conclusion: The last mafia knows the identity of the SK and will no doubt want him alive to help whittle down town numbers. There is no janitor in the game as N1 and N2 are the most optimal uses of it. Along those lines a copycat CPR is highly unlikely as the only way to attribute the lack of KP is that both scum and SK chose the same kill target two days in a row.
Additional side note: I don't think people have given Bluelight's case on Barundar as much consideration as it deserves. He is the role-cop and no doubt he would have utilized his check on someone he found suspicious, and a good portion of N1 discussions were centered around Barundar.
Role Claim
I am actually very eager to role claim. I will however hold back because of the tiered system, plus my claim is worth some discussion and would not like clashes / misdirection to occur in the thread.
At this point in the game, the unknowns are slOosh (me), Misder, Barundar and hiro's role claims. Everyone else has claimed something (whether they are lying or not is a different point).
Pre-edit: saw the thread and yea I guess I'll just claim in the next post I make. You have the night kills wrong. Zephirdd claimed the third hit on N1; we are still missing a KP for N2.
Ok, then just shift the shot on SK to N2. Could you answer my question to the reasonings to your roleblocks, as well as why the error on the night kill was the only thing you found worth mentioning?
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EBWOP: ninjaed. Sorry, I'll let you post.
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N1 on Palmar: I believed that Palmar was SK at that time and that risk.nuke was going to shoot Palmar. Roleblocking would have stopped SK bulletproof. Since Palmar claimed, if he was lying about being Pardoner, then he wouldn't be able to use his role; if he was telling the truth about being Pardoner, then the roleblock would have done nothing to his role. The risk was none, and the reward was a lot if I was right would be great.
N2 on hiro: I was considering putting it on Palmar again for the same reasons, but Qatol was pushing for a shot on hiro (who I thought was scum as well), so I thought I might as well block hiro just in case he had a defensive role or was SK. Obviously, since hiro did not roleclaim, it was a lot riskier, if hiro was indeed town and had an important role (which seems to be the case).
Basically, the goal was to coordinate my roleblock with risk's shots. Anyways, since I roleclaimed, we should be able to do so with his last shot.
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Well that rules out hiro as SK, as if he were roleblocked then he would have died if shot, and there is still an unaccounted for KP, and no one chose to pick a defensive role (protective roles all accounted for if I'm not mistaken).
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Barundar needs to claim as soon as possible. We should also start considering today's lynch / tonight's actions.
We currently have a vig shot, parity investigation, roleblock, jailkeep and pardon (not that we need it) at town's disposal assuming no liars. We can use them at our discretion and if something falls through whoever is responsible will be lynched.
I'm thinking that lynching SK is much easier than killing him at night, which is why I lean the lynch SK vig mafia route, but that of course depends wholly on Barundar's claim and consequently what we decide as town lynch. I personally think Hiro's claim is really safe whilst Misder's claim has been both confirmed and reasonable explanation has been given for his actions.
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I still think Barundars claim might be helpful, especially if it's what I believe it is and maybe Qatol got the same idea I have.
So short: we need that information^^
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On May 23 2012 03:47 slOosh wrote:
Well that rules out hiro as SK, as if he were roleblocked then he would have died if shot, and there is still an unaccounted for KP, and no one chose to pick a defensive role (protective roles all accounted for if I'm not mistaken).
Ok I'm not understanding that one. What does rule out hiro as SK and why.
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Since no one has claimed the second shot tonight, we can assume that mafia shot SK, and since I roleblocked hiro, which would have gotten rid of the SK bulletproof, hiro would have died if he was SK. Therefore, hiro is not SK. (I actually did not think of this either)
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On May 23 2012 04:30 Misder wrote:
Since no one has claimed the second shot tonight, we can assume that mafia shot SK, and since I roleblocked hiro, which would have gotten rid of the SK bulletproof, hiro would have died if he was SK. Therefore, hiro is not SK. (I actually did not think of this either)
there's a problem to that conclusion qatol has already pointed out as well. Will talk about it once the claims are over :p
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That one of either mafia or SK did not action last night? I guess.
Either way, I don't believe hiro is SK and more likely to be mafia.
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On May 23 2012 04:41 Misder wrote:
That one of either mafia or SK did not action last night? I guess.
Either way, I don't believe hiro is SK and more likely to be mafia.
@ first: nah lol
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Im no longer confident in my case on zelblade  I need to re-read things.
Barundar needs to claim in order to clear things up. Im feeling good about calling Misder town seeing how he and PacMan chose the same numbers, and PacMan ended up VS. He might have tried for roleblocker.
Last scum is one of zelblade, Zephirdd, or toad.
likely to be SK are sandroba and Barundar.
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On May 23 2012 05:06 hiro protagonist wrote:Im no longer confident in my case on zelblade I need to re-read things. Barundar needs to claim in order to clear things up. Im feeling good about calling Misder town seeing how he and PacMan chose the same numbers, and PacMan ended up VS. He might have tried for roleblocker. Last scum is one of zelblade, Zephirdd, or toad. likely to be SK are sandroba and Barundar.
Hold up. Even though you are no longer confident in your case you still find him scummy enough to put him into a scum list?
Please explain how you came to this conclusion and aren't merely following town sentiment.
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is there actually a reason people refer to me as possible scum as well except for me being wrong on d1? I agree that's kinda odd for me as well but just because of that I'm a mafia candidate?
People have pointed out all the time that I am looking like someone with a townie mindset. Trying to catch scum with that mason thing, confirming marv and all that, yet people come here and say "well that could be Toad doing that for towncred".
Why the assumption that I do good things for towncred instead of the assumption "well that looks townish, he's probably town" ?!?
I'd say we lynch into Barundar or hiro depending on the last claim and you'll see why :p
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Just because I am not confident does not mean I no longer find him scummy. Its not any one thing that made me reconsider, its just as I wrote the case I no longer felt it was that strong of a case... so Im re-reading to see what I can uncover.
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Updated list:
deconduo mafia CPR Dead day 1 by dayvig Mattchew
risk.nuke Vigilante -> shot paqman n1 (claimed vig very early with possibility of counter-claim so likely confirmed)
marvellosity Mason -> partner is Snarfs
[UoN]Sentinel mafia JOAT Dead lynched day 1
Mattchew Dayvig shot deconduo
zelblade VT tried for JOAT (claimed JOAT before Sentinel was revealed so almost confirmed)
Bluelightz Dead shot night2 Rolecop
talismania Dead shot night1 Witch
Misder Claimed Roleblocker -> Block Palmar n1, block hiro n2 (Confirmed there were roleblocks)
PaqMan mafia vanilla shot by risk n1 (or lynched day2 =P)
slOosh Claimed Parity Cop -> Checked Talis n1 Palmar n2 (same)
Toadesstern Claimed VT tried for mason
Barundar
Zephirdd Claimed VT tried for politician
hiro protagonist Claimed Doctor -> Save Qatol n1, save Qatol n2
Palmar Claimed Pardoner
Snarfs VT tried for politician
Qatol Jailer -> Jailed risk n1 modconfirmed, jailed marv n2
sandroba VT tried for mason
Probulous VT modkilled day1
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(Bold is people who voted risk, italics on those who voted sent.)
Everyone: thoughts on the current claims while we wait for Barundar's claim and hiro's findings?
Possible discussion topics: vanilla claims being lies. My, Misder's and Hiro's claims. What we should be doing as town for today's lynch (go for scum lynch or SK lynch), or tonight's actions.
My thoughts
We can call marv and snarfs basically confirmed town with their mason claim.
Therefore we can trust snarf's politician pick and thus someone above him must be politician.
We have deduced that scum politician would have used his powers to save sentinel, and therefore SK is the politician.
Misder's role is confirmed through his targets, Palmar and hiro.
My role is unconfirmable.
Hiro's role is hard to confirm as either we deliberately shoot someone or make sure person X doesn't die.
Maybe we can vig someone suspicious and have hiro save them to confirm either one.
The possibility of the false vanilla claims still holds true. Hiro brought up the potential of zelblade lying about bouncing off JOAT. Toad's mason bounce, Zephirdd's politician bounce and sandroba's mason bounce could also be lies (not saying that they are, but the possibility is there).
Thoughts?
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/atUfi.png)
