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Little reminder for people:
As you can see, we were planning on killing sandroba alone all along.
The "weirdness" of the votes were a plan I came up with to "scare" scum. If Wiggles/Katina were scum, then they would fear that we would make a multilynch with them. If so, then scum would be more likely to panic, and maybe have scumbuddies dump all their votes unto them to save them, or just have people panic in thread, slip or go apeshit about it, etc.
Again, here are the "real" and "phony" spreadsheets:
"Real": https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlDOJgSVEnnPdDgtUmVkVlQ3b2pKT1MtU0tEUWMyTHc#gid=0
"Phony": https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlDOJgSVEnnPdDNVcjhEbGNKbUtaRjVfd1lJRklKR0E#gid=0
Me and MZ think it produced pretty interesting results.
...now however, it seems it produced another result as well:
Mr. Wiggles (12) sandroba (5)
We shouldn't trust sandro's votes since they come from confirmed scum. But if sandro and Wiggles were scumbuddies, then it would make sense they would fear the "trio" trying to get Wiggles lynched. Since sandro would get lynched as well, they would instantly lose, so perhaps they just went "all in" and decided to save Wiggles no matter what, even if it outted themselves.
Well, I'll discuss that with ET/MZ, you guys should give your opinions on the matter as well.
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So let me get this straight:
-We DIDN'T lynch you, and decided to lynch sandroba alone (scum may I remind you) instead.
-We made a plan that forced scum (and perhaps a townie) to take action, in which would otherwise be a pretty straightforward sandro lynch without any information at all
-This made it so sandro gave 5 votes to Wiggles, which is pretty good information itself to analyse (depending what conclusion you get) exactly because of our plan
And instead of trying to use that information, comment on it, etc, you keep bashing us and our plans?
Why don't you tell us who the Yokoya scum is then? Why won't you analyse sandro's flip and figure out who is Harimoto? Why not do anything other than create more vague mistrust in our circle?
Also, those "interesting results" were sloosh desperately trying to come to your aid and dump votes unto you, and you two having town reads on each other out of nowhere.
Granted, you can't be scumbuddies now, so it's not as strong as me/MZ thought before, but it's an interesting result nonetheless.
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On May 21 2012 08:14 Katina wrote:
...I was just making conversation
It surely doesn't seem like that if as soon as we get a scum lynched you continue to bash our methods.
Who do you think is Yokoya and Harimoto then?
I posted a helpful chart with votes and shit so you can analyze them easier and so you don't need to waste time on looking at each Day/Night Post countless of times.
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I'll tell you the same thing I told Wiggles:
"Without taking voting patterns into account, can you back that up?"
Also lol, supposedly I'm the poor townie that's being misled by 2 different scum infiltrated in our circle  (if you say ET is Yokoya and MZ is Harimoto).
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On May 21 2012 08:31 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Gonzaw don't you love all the activity now that people realize you and I are gonna win this for the town?
Well, at least it makes the game less boring for now
Also, check your PMs 
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Again, not surprised
People, NO ONE vote for now.
We have a plan for today, me/ET/MZ will discuss it a little bit more, and show it to you guys shortly
We have a very good chance of winning the game TODAY
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Ultimate Plan for Day 8
Introduction:
Today we will kill all 3 of Wiggles/Katina/sloosh.
Me and MZ are convinced the 2 remaining scum are in that group, and ET thinks so too, or at least he agrees with the plan.
The 2 remaining scum are surely in that group, and today we'll get rid of both of them.
To do so, the plan needs to be organized in 2 phases. Phase A will refer to the plan for Round A, and Phase B will refer to the plan for Round B.
First, I'll tell you guys the actual plan, and then I'll tell you why it will work
Phase A:
Votes for Round A:
NO:
gonzaw - Mr.Wiggles - slOosh - Katina
YES:
EchelonTee - Meapak_Zipph
Phase B:
Everybody, except me should give their 5 votes to me (gonzaw).
I'll put my 5 votes on ET or Meapak (illegal votes).
The votes will look like this:
gonzaw (25): (5 EchelonTee, 5 Meapak_Zipph, 5 Mr.Wiggles, 5 slOosh, 5 Katina)
Mr.Wiggles (0): Nobody
slOosh (0): Nobody
Katina (0): Nobody
Illegal votes: EchelonTee (5): (5 gonzaw)
If illegal votes weren't allowed for some reason (I don't see why they wouldn't, sandro didn't receive any warning for making his illegal votes on Day 6):
Then I'll give 2 votes to Mr.Wiggles, 2 votes to Katina, 1 vote to slOosh, and 1 of ET or MZ will give the remaining 1 vote to slOosh.
Reasons why it will work
Premise: Each townie will follow this plan
In anticipation to the people casting doubt on ET, MZ and me, I'll tell you guys what happens in the case one or 2 of us are scum:
If 2 of gonzaw/Meapak/EchelonTee are scum:
Then Wiggles/sloosh/Katina are all townies. Because of the premise, they will follow the plan. All 3 will die.
However, that will leave us in a 1-1-1 situation. Considering there will be no night kill (surely) on Night 8, we will arrive at Day 9 in a 1-1-1 situation.
That's basically a kingmaker scenario and stalemate for scum. It would most likely end in a draw with the remaining townie dying, or the townie deciding who of the 2 scum win.
However, I would say a stalemate or draw is better for us than a loss, and you guys should know that if 2 of me/ET/MZ are in fact scum town and we don't follow the plan, then we would surely lose anyways
If 1 of gonzaw/Meapak/EchelonTee is scum:
Then we'll arrive at Day 9 in a 2-1 situation. This is normal LYLO, and we can figure out who the scum out of us is, we can still win.
Now, the chances of the 1st situation happening are basically 0%, and the chances of the 2nd one happening are very low IMO.
However, even if one of us was scum, we can still win.
Those scenarios should not really be considered since I'm sure we 3 are town, which leaves us to:
2 out of Katina/Wiggles/slOosh are scum
Scenarios for Phase A:
The 2 scum vote YES:
In this case, both scum will try to vote YES to avoid being in the majority and save themselves from being killed today.
The votes will be:
NO:
gonzaw - townie
YES:
ET - MZ - 1 Yokoya - 1 Harimoto
Both scum WILL be in the majority. Both of them will be outed (remember the Premise, if someone is town they'll follow the plan), and we can easily kill them today and/or tomorrow
1 scum votes YES:
One scum decides to stick with the plan for Phase A, but one decides to vote YES to try and save himself
The votes will be:
NO:
gonzaw - townie - 1 scum
YES:
ET - MZ - 1 scum
There will be a draw.
Because of the premise, then that scum will be outed, and we can easily kill him alone the next Round A after the draw.
After he's killed, we do a similar plan for the remaining 2 players to kill the remaining scum
The 2 scum vote NO:
Then they decided to follow the plan...good. They'll learn this is the best thing for them since it means the game will be over sooner
Scenarios for Phase B:
1)Both scum follow the plan:
In this case, both will end up with 0 votes on them, and both will die. In this case we'll win the game.
Again, I suggest scum taking this course of action, so the game ends sooner and we don't need to have to wait until Day 15 or something to win this game.
2)1 scum follows the plan, but the other one doesn't
In this case, there are 2 options:
2.1)The scum only saves the townie out of Katina/sloosh/Wiggles:
In this case, then the townie will be saved but both scum will be dead with 0 votes
2.2)The scum only saves the other scum:
In this case, the scum that didn't follow the plan will die with 0 votes, along with the townie, but the one that
followed the plan will live. Again, this will out that scum as scum since he's still alive, and we'll kill him the next day
3)Both scum decide not to follow the plan
In this case, there are 3 options:
3.1)Both scum will only save the townie out of Katina/sloosh/Wiggles:
It's possible both choose 1 player to save, and it's the townie. In this case both will be dead with 0 votes
3.2)One scum saves the townie, and the other one save the other scum:
Then 1 scum will die with 0 votes, and the other will be outed. The townie will live though, which is nice (better than
(2.2) for instance). Again, pretty easy to kill that scum on Day 9.
3.3)Both scum save each other:
In this case, only the townie will die. However, this will out BOTH scum, and will leave us in a 3-1-1 situation.
Considering most likely there won't be a night kill on Night 8, we'll arrive at Day 9 in a 3-1-1 situation with 2
outed scum, and we can kill both of them by forcing them into the majority on D9 and/or on D10.
Now, if both scum follow Phase A, but decide to screw us on Phase B by voting to each other, then one of those scenarios above may happen.
The "worst" of them is having both scum save each other.
However, that happening is very unlikely
Why?
- Scum from different families don't know each other. They'll have to guess who the scum from the other team is, AND guess correctly for that to happen
- Both scum have to guess correctly, not only one
- Both scum would need to "fight back" sort of speak. Meaning they wouldn't surrender, even if it meant they'd most likely lose in a next day anyways
- If one scum decides to save the other scum, even if he guesses correctly, he will only live if the other scum does the same.
This won't happen, because for both scum to survive today, each scum NEEDS the other scum to save him to survive. If the other scum doesn't do that correctly, then said scum will die.
So scum, hear me out, it will be VERY likely that you will die, even if the other scum has the best intentions to try and save you somehow, he has a chance of saving the townie instead
So scum, hear me out again:
You lost
Don't fight back, and follow the plan exactly and we'll end this game right now and we don't need to drag it to Day 9 or even Day 10.
If you decide to "rebel" today, you'll either out yourself to die tomorrow, or you'll save the scum from the other faction, but you will still lose
So don't be a pain in the ass and follow the plan, okay?
So, now I'll talk to the townie out of Wiggles/Katina/sloosh
This whole plan rests on the premise that you'll follow it. ET and MZ will surely follow it, so the only way it will work is if you follow it yourself.
As you can see, if the other 2 out of Wiggles/Katina/sloosh are scum, we will win 100% no matter what, so you don't have anything to fear.
If you think 1 of me/ET/MZ is scum, then you'll know that we still have a chance to win in a 2-1 D9 LYLO. By following this plan, if 1 of us were actually to be scum then we'd end this game sooner as well (and we wouldn't need to spend 3 days lynching all 3 of you).
If you somehow think 2 of me/ET/MZ is scum, then surely you know that if that was the case we lost already. However, if you follow this plan we can force a stalemate and maybe a draw.
However, I assure you that all 3 of us are town, so trust me on this one and don't rebel yourself against the plan. If you do, it will make us think you are scum trying to rebel and fight back, and we'll likely lynch you in the future and have a chance to lose.
Again, it also means the game will end sooner no matter what you think is the case.
So, reminder:
To Town: Please follow this plan and I assure you we'll win today and end this game once and for all
To Scum: Please follow this plan since you already lost. You surely want this game to end right now as well, and you know you can't win, so make it quick and follow it. You only need to Answer NO today and give your 5 votes to me tomorrow, nothing else.
So people, this is the plan, and hopefully everything that needed to be said about it was already said, so get to it and vote according to Phase A please.
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EBWOP:
However, I would say a stalemate or draw is better for us than a loss, and you guys should know that if 2 of me/ET/MZ are in fact scum and we don't follow the plan, then we would surely lose anyways
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On May 21 2012 15:19 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Why do you think EchelonTee is town exactly?
Why would you ask me that question, and what does this have to do with the plan?
You know, you can comment on it as well.
You also seem to completely ignore sandro's flip and its repercussions. I remember you saying that ET and someone else would both be Harimoto, ONLY because of voting patterns. However I also remember you thinking sandro was Yokoya, so surely your reads would change by now, considering you ONLY used voting patterns to determine them, right?
But well, I think you are scum Wiggles, so it doesn't matter actually matter what you vote.
Although please vote NO to follow the plan so we can end the game earlier.
For people that still ask me "Why do you think ET is town? bla bla bla bla".
ET was part of our plans since Day 4 and has been in the loop ever since. He knew about every plan since then. He knew the plans when chaoser was lynched, the plans when Palmar got lynched and the one where sandroba got lynched.
He never tried to stop those, so unless you say he just bussed all his teammates since Day 4 to win solo or something he's town.
He is clear with his reads ever since the game started as well, and if you want to take meta into account, he seems to care about the game and is not acting to his scum meta at all (for instance, check SoaF).
Now that we are over that, if any of you want to seriously consider MZ or ET as scum, then make a convincing case other than "oh he voted opposite sandroba/chaoser one day".
If not, then you should have no qualms over following this plan.
Even if you still think MZ/ET is scum, then still follow the plan and we'll deal with that once we get to D9.
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lol Katina
If scum have KP, then gonzaw is scum
Great reasoning there.
If scum had any KP left, then they would have used it yesterday when they knew they would surely lose. They didn't so they very likely have no KP left at all.
And I don't know wtf that "BC's team shot Foolishness" assertion is. Yeah most likely you are Yokoya and actually shot Foolishness yourself.
Also, Meapak is right, I think you FoSed all of me/ET/MZ at some point.
No townie would settle for a draw
Wait...didn't you think Wiggles is scum? If that's the case, then how can we ever get into the "2 of the trio are scum" scenario that supposedly is the one we would get a draw in?
If this is true it means that chaoser and gonzaw both voted the same the day after BC was lynched. I find that unlikely but given how much Foolishness talked with gonzaw about mafia votes I can't rule it out.
So you FoS me out of nowhere with justifying it with some bullshit speculation, and then you actually say you find it unlikely I'm scumbuddies with chaoser?
Yet you keep FoSing me?
Also, why are you convinced I'm Yokoya and not Harimoto for instance?
lol
Glad you decided to follow the plan though.
@Wiggles: Those "reasonings" you are talking about have been mentioned over and over again for the past 3 or so days.
And only ET and MZ are the ones required to know them by now.
Just follow the plan Wiggles. See? Even Katina will follow it.
If sloosh follows it, then you+Katina will be in the majority, or there will be a draw. The only way the game can continue is if you follow it, so just do so.
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As I said it makes the most sense that you are the mafia, not ET or Meapak.
No, initially you said that ET made sense as Yokoya and MZ made sense as Harimoto.
Now all of a sudden I make sense as Yokoya and Wiggles as scum (I guess you think he's Harimoto then).
What made you change your mind like that? Oh I know, it was because I made a plan that would kill you
Why are we not just killing Wiggles today?
We WILL kill Wiggles today. The question is: why shouldn't we kill you in the process?
While the most of what you've done has been pro town, this plan is not pro town at all. It's pushing a mafia agenda.
Right, I'm a scum that everything he did in the whole game was "pro-town"; yet now that I want to kill you I'm suddenly pushing a mafia agenda.
Makes perfect sense.
You still haven't addressed what the "No townie would settle for a draw" part has any bearing at all if you think that scenario is impossible (since you think Wiggles is scum).
I do want to end this game as quickly as possible because it's becoming boring and tiring. It's been like 1 week where almost nothing happened other than flips and people following plans.
If scum don't want to surrender themselves then we'll just force them to.
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Great.
You know what to do people.
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Just give up Katina, nobody will give you votes today and you'll die. So just surrender and/or follow the plan.
On May 23 2012 03:53 Katina wrote:
We don't know how scum KP works. If us 3 die as planned and there's still a mafia alive it could be gg
I am very sure MZ and ET are town, so I don't care how scum KP works and if there is some "hidden" KP like you stated, since we win either way.
If we just kill Wiggles and let things go another day then there's no risk of mafia KP interferring
You just said there could be "hidden" KP. That KP could strike us after we single-handily lynch Wiggles, right?
That would put us in a 3-1 situation, which is MYLO if there is another "hidden" KP.
Do you seriously think that's better than this then? Of course if we lynch Wiggles and this "hidden" KP strikes me/ET/MZ, you'll just FoS sloosh or one of us and try to survive one more lynch
This plan makes no sense in regards to the other plan. Why didn't we do this yesterday? Wiggles, myself, and sandroba were all in the majority. Why didn't you advocate killing all of us yesterday? You claimed that we had time and there was no sense taking risks. Now you want to take a huge risk.
Are you kidding me?
I talked with MZ about it, and I was thinking about trying to kill all of you guys on Day 7, but we couldn't since we believed there were still 2 Harimotos other than sandroba left.
Those 2 could easily give votes to each other to save themselves, and forcing a 3-2-1 or 3-2 situation with 2 scum from the same team is dangerous.
I'm going to uni in a few minutes and be back 1-2 hours before the deadline, so everybody vote accordingly until then.
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Katina, I can't take you seriously if your only reason for thinking I'm scum is "He made the plan for today".
You can't say anything like "The plan is inconsistent with your circle" because you know shit about our circle.
...but when tomorrow rolls around you have to kill gonzaw
You better not make any "tomorrow" happening and follow the plan.
Seriously, if one of you scum decides to fuck with us to prolong the game even further I'll rage.
You can end the game right now, so we can get to the juicy stuff of Post-Game discussion, and analyzing our play, etc, instead of having to wait 72 more hours (or even more).
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On May 23 2012 10:49 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 10:28 gonzaw wrote:Katina, I can't take you seriously if your only reason for thinking I'm scum is "He made the plan for today". You can't say anything like "The plan is inconsistent with your circle" because you know shit about our circle. ...but when tomorrow rolls around you have to kill gonzaw You better not make any "tomorrow" happening and follow the plan. Seriously, if one of you scum decides to fuck with us to prolong the game even further I'll rage. You can end the game right now, so we can get to the juicy stuff of Post-Game discussion, and analyzing our play, etc, instead of having to wait 72 more hours (or even more). I'm only following the plan to make the rest of these people realize you're mafia a bit faster. When ET and/or Meapak realizes I've been right this whole time I will enjoy watching you flail around like a magikarp! It's also lovely how you continue to ignore my arguments about your plan and instead counter with "lol no you mafia!"
Your "arguments" about my plan are:
-I'm scum
-I have some "hidden" KP that can only be used in 2 NOT consecutive nights, and I will win tonight
You could as easily say:
-sloosh is scum
-He's unlynchable, and when he's lynched he can kill 3 players
-He'll win tonight
You are just making random accusations only backed up with random speculation (which even you admitted were just "speculation").
There's nothing to counter, you didn't make any analysis whatsoever.
Also, let's not forget this little gem, or "argument" of yours:
3rd party shot syllogism
LOL
Anyways, Protact, you better make the post soon today, if not you'll give me carpal-tunnel-syndrome for making me press F5 for 1 hour or so
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Holy shit so one of ET/MZ is in fact scum.
What the fuck is going on in this game?
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I think we already lost.
If Katina was right and there is some "hidden KP", then it will be 1-1-1 tomorrow and it's basically a draw.
If scum don't have any KP then it's 2-1-1, and it's unlikely we can get both scum lynched, specially if they somehow work together.
For fucks sake.
*sigh* I'll go get some sleep first though, this is fucking my mind too much right now.
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Wait...I think we still have a chance to win this.
I need to contact the other townie first though
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On May 24 2012 03:47 slOosh wrote:
Bahaha did not see this one coming. Wow, katina really pulling through for me. Sorry I thought you were scum. But I thought Mr. Wiggles was scum too, so now I'm really .... woah. Hahaha.
I guess my initial reservations of the trio weren't unfounded. Just didn't expect two members in it.
And gonzaw you just called me scum?
Yes I did.
I told MZ before the day ended that I was paranoid about you. See, MZ wanted to give 5 votes to you to save you and let Katina and Wiggles die alone.
Then it hit me....perhaps you were playing so "selflessly" just so we could do something like that. If everybody thought Wiggles and Katina were scum, by extension everybody would think you are town. Therefore it would be more likely you'd receive at least some votes to get Wiggles and Katina to die alone.
I knew that was a possibility, which is why I told Meapak to just follow the plan like it was. It seemed to work for you since Katina saved you (thank you Katina, Cephiro #2 at this point).
On May 24 2012 03:52 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 16:32 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Greetings fellow players.
It is mathematically impossible for town to win. Even if scum doesn't have any KP, tomorrow will be a 2v2 situation. The two final scum can claim (or perhaps they already are in contact) and force the town into an unwinnable situation.
Here's how. Both scum simply vote opposite each other, it'll only work once but they may get lucky and have both townies vote the same way. In this case there will be 3 in the majority. In this case both townies are dead along with one scum, leaving the other team victorious.
However, if it doesn't work the first time then the game will be caught in a perpetual round A scenario with the two townies and the two scum voting opposite of each other.
This is what's going to happen with no night kills. If there are night kills then scum can just have a draw between themselves by claiming now and coordinating hits.
I again ask that the night be sped up, if the hosts aren't declaring a draw now that makes me think that scum has KP left.
Again, town can't win without one of the scum teams quitting which in my book is an unwinnable situation. Sure it's possible. Actually, this is freakishly like the actual liar game situation. And here is how it goes. I am voting yes to whatever the question will be. Therefore, you are all auto prisoner scenario. And I will continue to vote yes forever. And then its a draw ... yea Meapak is right. Strange - even if you were able to correctly deduce the last scum members you are not guaranteed a win, or even a draw.
Nice scumslip there.
You are wrong about something:
In Game 2 of the manga, there were 4 different factions
Each player wanted to win by himself, which is why the situation was a "stalemate" (at least initially and what Akiyama made everybody think so).
Right now there are 2 different one-man factions that want to do exaclty that to win (both scum teams).
...however, this is a two-man faction left: Town.
Remember how Akiyama won that game? He teamed up with another dude and Akiyama won because of that. It's the same here, since town has 2 members left, we can win only if both townies work each other just like in the manga (or similar).
I had a similar plan like that, but I need to contact the townie to implement it better and discuss ways to fool scum, but I'm paranoid as fuck right now and I don't really trust anyone from ET/MZ, even if I have some reservations about them.
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EPT
