Liar Game Mini Mafia - Page 4

To: Meapak_Ziphh [ Profile | Buddy | Report ]
Subject: liar game - we can still win
Date: 5/24/12 05:02
First, my reads: http://i.imgur.com/Q2oh3.png

If you pull up each person's filter, you will notice them supporting each other / identify when the busses start happening. For instance, gonzaw's filter will show him soft defending sandroba early on in the game, and echelon's filter will show the same for chaoser.

Behavioral analysis puts you as final town as well. Katina pushed gonzaw hard - I wasn't notified that I would be saved but I was, and her final wish was go for gonzaw.

My PMs indicate that Echelon has been unreasonably suspecting (showing some weird clarvoyance) into the possibility of this situation - when he shared reads he suspected one of the trio well before the final axe.

The thread indicates that out of the three responses that yours is the most genuine. You care about town. That is what I see.

How can I prove my towiness? Well I'm not sure I can prove that behavourally, but voting analysis supports me because if I was yokoya (red) I would have voted with chaoser twice (unlikely since he was not under scrutiny till D4 got going and all four of us voted with him), and if I was harimoto (orange) it is unlikely due to my hard going after palmar. But my towniness is something I can't really prove. Well, I suppose by process of elimination I can prove that I must be the last townie.


Anyways, here is how we win (possibly)
We split votes 1-1. We dupe scum via PMs and whatnot, and hope they land in majority (i.e. vote 2-0). Then we end up 3-1 with one of us in the majority, one in minority.

Then, we win by dumping 5 votes onto each other.
Scum can either:
vote 5 each other in which case all three die and the townie in minority wins
vote not 5 each other in which case both die and town wins
1 of them votes 5, the other doesn't and thus 1 scum dies in which we split 1-1 and scum lands majority and dies.

If they team up then yes it will be perpetual draw. But they don't know who the other scum is. This is the liar game - where we work up false visages, trick them into voting into majority and win. You are right in that the first cycle after this will determine whether we win or we draw.

Gonzaw aint gonna listen to me. ET I might be able to deceive, but who knows what correspondence has been occuring between the two.

I will begin my PMs with ET now. I give you my word that I am town, and I think you are last town.
I will be treating you as such. There is no guarantee that I am myself duping you as I will be duping ET, since I could be elaborate scum, but I think you would be giving me too much credit to call it excellent scum play.

To: EchelonTee [ Profile | Buddy | Report ]
Subject: Re: liar
Date: 5/24/12 05:09
Alright, didn't tell you the full story because I was trying to figure out which one of you are the last town.
Katina did not tell me anything, but her last PM told me her wishes to lynch gonzaw. Seeing her flip town and rereading her statements, as well as gonzaw's unnecessary grilling of her (why would you do that to scum?) I find myself in agreement with that sentiment.

I know earlier when you shared your reads you said that if it was between me and gonzaw I would get the axe - hopefully a re-read of the situation will change your mind.

As for Meapak, I've already expressed my concerns with you before this whole fiasco. I really thought Wiggles at least would flip, but with the two town flips it seems that my earlier suspicions were not unfounded.

In the least, there is still a way we can win despite what people are saying in thread.

We split votes 1-1. We dupe scum via PMs and whatnot, and hope they land in majority (i.e. vote 2-0). Then we end up 3-1 with one of us in the majority, one in minority.

Then, we win by dumping 5 votes onto each other.
Scum can either:
vote 5 each other in which case all three die and the townie in minority wins
vote not 5 each other in which case both die and town wins
1 of them votes 5, the other doesn't and thus 1 scum dies in which we split 1-1 and scum lands majority and dies.

If they team up then yes it will be perpetual draw. But they don't know who the other scum is. This is the liar game - where we work up false visages, trick them into voting into majority and win.

By now if you haven't figured it out I think you are last town.

Gonzaw has closed off his ears to me, and right now I'm in the process of PMing Meapak. I'll keep you updated if I get any responses. If you trust me, I'd advise you to do the same (but don't give away that we have hidden agenda, still express some suspicions of me or whatnot).