EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI - Page 2
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
I thought the odds of Veriat being mafia were at about 15% (just personal conjecture), but the lurking.... Anyways, I'll be playing some Deus Ex, gl all, hope to see you all in the morning  | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
After that little bit of defense, I'm very glad to have suspicion cast upon me. We need to have everyone defending themselves and looking at other players behavior. I'd like to think that I'm one of the least scummy posters, but I have no problems. I'll be able to post a bit more in a little bit, so bye for a few minutes :D | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote: I'm kinda bummed that yomi was a townie. Seriously thought he was mafia D: Since I voted to horribly wrong, I'm going to delay my vote until it is closer to the deadline. WhySoMuch - so honored to be a suspect on your list. You're right, i have been commentating to much on everyone's posts. i didn't vote veriat because it seemed like a bandwagon case to me. Mordanis - + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2012 11:53 Mordanis wrote: Frankly, I was simply reluctant to change my 3 times in about an hour. In reality, I was more for a lynch for either player than I was for a lynch of specifically one of them. At that point, Aces hadn't posted in about a day, so without knowing any justification for why he was lurking, he was a good candidate for a lynch even if there was a low probability of his being mafia just because he wasn't any help for the town. Hell, I'm still for lynching lurkers even if there is a low probability of them turning out scum because we need to work together. Lurking only hurts us. Also, if you look at the earlier parts of the thread, I was one of the first to put pressure on Veriat, which I don't see mafia doing. After that little bit of defense, I'm very glad to have suspicion cast upon me. We need to have everyone defending themselves and looking at other players behavior. I'd like to think that I'm one of the least scummy posters, but I have no problems. I'll be able to post a bit more in a little bit, so bye for a few minutes :D All I get is a scum vibe from you on this post. But i feel like i don't have enough info on you to make a significant case against you. Seeing how I take individual posts instead of looking at the context of the posts. will post more when i have a goodnight sleep Could you explain why you get this vibe rather than just saying "I'm getting a vibe"? Its sort of hard for me to convince you that I'm not mafia if I have no idea how you got the idea other than an incredibly vague statement that a post of mine seems scummy. @ Golden When I was trying to secure a first day lynch, I wrote that we should all tell everyone whom we'd be willing to vote for, in order to maximize the probability of a lynch. I then went on to say that mafia would either be forced to say that they aren't willing to vote for one of their own or risk having a lynch kill one of their buddies the first day. Your behavior was exactly what I would have expected from mafia, and the only reason I haven't voted for you yet is because it was too typical. You posted a confusing jumble that seemed to say that you would vote for Veriat only if people could prove he wasn't scummier than Aces, but that you thought there was a good likelihood that he was mafia. This seems like the safest route of play to mafia to me. By saying that you think someone "may" be scum, but that you'd rather lynch someone else, you potentially gain 1) the ability to say you were right when it turns out that Veriat was mafia, and 2) a chance to save your scum buddy. Had Veriat been only a lurker, but still town, your play would only have been confusing. But in light of Veriat being mafia, your behavior just prior to the lynch seems very suspicious. I'd like to hear some kind of explanation of your reasoning, if you'd be so kind. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
IDK if you posted before or after seeing my EBWOP, but I was just trying to eliminate most of the mistrust aimed at you, because I'm getting a pretty strong town read on you(even if it I think you made some bad decisions). If you don't mind having everyone analyze your behavior as potentially mafia, its your own fault if your novels are disregarded. :D | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Jailbreaker, IDK what your planned contributions to this game are. You freely admit that your analysis is low-level/shallow, but you won't give any reason why. Do you not have the time? Are you not mentally capable? Are you afraid of getting shot? Are you afraid of getting lynched? All we know is that you had a grudge against yomi (who was killed by someone ostensibly with a grudge against him), and that you went from batshit-crazy paranoid to complete pacifist just before the vote, but you didn't change your vote from yomi. Also, you still haven't replied to any of the questions posed to you, including this one from 2 days ago. I wrote this WTF Jailbreaker You've completely switched your stance from Oh, the Drama! We're stuck on a spaceship with close quarters. Lazermonkey - Day one is the most important day to analyze. Even though it is a noob game, work needs to be done. Pure-SC2 - The no lynch is a terrible idea. Misslynch is collateral damage. It happens. I'm not playing the hate mafia squad, I dont want to get thrown out the air lock on the first day. and with all this nonsense talk about scheduals and lynch/no lynch, we're forgetting about the real issue here: THERE'S MAFIA SCUM AMONG US. I know it is day one, but does it have to be so passive? I don't want to vote for the wrong person based on three posts and then making one of the first votes based on just a few hours of posts, now you are saying this You switch to being against "bandwaggoning"? At this point, we need a full majority of 7 players to lynch. If you are against no-lynch, then you need to vote for one fo the 2 players whom most people are voting to lynch. It's fairly simple logic, so I'd ask you to either A) vote for someone who has a realistic chance of being elected lynched, or B) come out and tell us that you are against a lynch today. We have 3 hours and 45 minutes left, it's time to get ourselves organized. Hell, it's past time to get ourselves organized. In response to this: nonononononono water you guys doin? you planet all wrong. Can't you see that other players are trying to rush people into a decision so fast?? Just because we dun have a majority vote, doesn't mean we should rush. Even though I voted for Yomi so fast in the game, i didn't rush. Just like what golden says, stay clam and dont panic. I know its fail logic right here, no apollo-gies here on my part. Mordanis says: + Show Spoiler + and + Show Spoiler + Sounds a bit to me like a rushing/get-on-the-band-wagon On April 29 2012 00:25 Lazermonkey wrote: Noone is posting atm really. AcecAnoka havn't been posting in about a day, which could very well be due to IRL stuffs. But he is still my prime suspect. ##Vote: AcecAnoka This vote may very well change tho, depending on the events in the evening! Why are you voting for him? plz give a real reason. I also feel like O.Golden_ne has the most influence over the votes with your "in depth analysis" and a galactic wall of texts. On April 28 2012 18:26 Veriat wrote: Ok here are my thoughts on who are the scum: The_Zen_Man nreekay324 Jailbreaker The_Zen_Man You're stance on the "lynch no lynch" discussion has left me a little puzzled, and your overall playstyle seem fishy to me, so you're getting my vote. nreekay324 All your posts just seem off and scummy. Many of them seem rushed or flawed, and you basically just jumped the bandwagon with your early vote on Why_So_Much. On a side note i did find Why_So_Much's playstyle kind of off, but i don't think he's scum, because then why would you vote for him? Jailbreaker You've my number 3 due to consistent flaws in your previous posts. Sounds more like regurgitation of O.Golden_ne's posts. From what AcecAnoka has posted, I feel like we dont have enough info to point fingers at him. get off the bandwagon and look at other players posts just in general And you never replied. All that post can really be construed as is incredibly low-level thought, or as an attempt to stall and disorganize the effort to lynch. IDK why a townie would try to stall a lynch though... Anyways, you have some explaining to do. @Golden, see? I just wanted to be slightly more unified before casting serious suspicion around. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
@Aces @Splinter: Post more. We've already lynched for lurking, and I for one would rather avoid doing so again if we can avoid it. That being said, I still stand by my earlier arguments that lynching lurkers is better than no lynch because lurkers only hurt the town. Don't put us in that position. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
I'm also against lynching Splinter as long as he is able to contribute when he has the time. I can't say that I love the idea of having all of one person's content in 1 post, but as long as Splinter helps, I currently don't see him as being mafia, so I don't see any reason to lynch him. Anyways, plenty of suspicion has been leveled at Jailbreaker, and he is so far responding in the same way as Veriat, by lurking and only posting vague, shallow analysis. I'm going to be going to work in a few hours, and if Jailbreaker hasn't defended himself at all, I will likely vote for him, in hopes that if we start voting early we won't have a gigantic rush at the end of the cycle like last time. Jailbreaker, if you do respond, why do you seem to be proud of your admittedly shallow analysis (twice you said you wouldn't apologize for it). What is this supposed to do to help the town? I really don't understand what you're doing, and its coming off as very suspicious. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Also, Hi Marvellosity! gl catching up with everything, hope you post some new insight! | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
That post is in response to WhySoMuch wondering why some people want to lynch lurkers. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
I've already explained why, but I'll do some more. Jailbreaker's attempted stall of the vote came right when momentum was shifting from Aces to Veriat. I find this suspicious. But even if he flips town, I won't be too sad because his play has been very low-level and perhaps even toxic to the town. Off to work, hope things start to move, because the last vote got very stressful. In fact, this is how the lead-up to the last vote made me feel  Just found out how to do that BTW... | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
First things first, I just realized that nreekay = Enrique... Yeah... Anyways Nreekay has only really posted three things which can be evaluated, and of course I can analyze his vote. I'll begin with his first analytical post. + Show Spoiler [first post] + + Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 04:12 nreekay324 wrote: Hello again all, Lots to go through, I’ll try to make it neat; Why I voted for whysomuch so early + Show Spoiler + It was an impulse post. When I saw that yomi voted for him, it triggered me. I played with yomi in a previous game, and I had to endure the aftermath of an overly aggressive play he made (more on this later). My reason was obviously unsubstantiated, + Show Spoiler + (i just really dislike twilight) No-Lynch Stance + Show Spoiler + I’ve alluded to before, and I’d like to state explicitly that I think no-lynch is a generally bad policy, with little exception. Other people have (whysomuch, lazermonkey) have made some points about this. It is very unlikely that by the deadline that town won’t have high-scum read targets to vote for. Sure, a mis-lynch would suck, but it’s not like we’re voting randomly. If there really aren’t clear scum choices, than we should no-lynch. This leads me to the next point, which is why I really think no-lynch is important. Generating discussion + Show Spoiler + More discusion = more info = better for town. If the town’s general consensus flirts too much with no-lynch, then it will encourage lurking. On April 27 2012 22:48 The_Zen_Man wrote: If we vote for a nolynch there will still be people, like yourself, that would oppose that and vote for a person instead. We can use that information to decide everyone standings. The time before deadline will also give us information, as we can observe how people act then. The quality / quantity of information can vary drastically with a town that has a lot of votes and cases and from a town that has some votes, a few cases, and some no-lynches. It goes beyond who voted for who, it’s who voted for who and why they did so. People have to build cases to vote for people, and cases = more discussion. “Meta-game”? (yomi) + Show Spoiler + People have mentioned meta-game elements, specifically yomi’s quick-post. Specifically, Golden + Show Spoiler + On April 27 2012 13:33 O.Golden_ne wrote: I've seen yomi's play before and i understand he likes to be aggressive, and i like his aggression.. i just hope it isn't misplaced aggression and i want him to explain to me why he has picked WhySoMuch other than for his pro-first-day-lynch attitude and his contrary views on the percentages of lynching. i think you have to pick your battles and maybe lynching people with opposing views might not be the key, opposing views lead to discussion, which leads to correct eviction. On April 27 2012 16:27 O.Golden_ne wrote: Perhaps the small shred of logic yomi has shown in his lurking argument makes him less suspicious than Nreekay? Pure SC2 + Show Spoiler + On April 27 2012 23:58 Pure-SC2 wrote: @AcesAnoka - Yomi has a bit of a reputation from his last 2 newbie games and he tends to play the same way regardless of if he is scum or town. He's essentially trying to stir up discussion by posting "off the wall" (yomi feel free to correct me here if you'd explain it differently). Last game it got him lynched day 1 and he was town, so while it's good to pressure him like you are, bare in mind that this is essentially how he plays. Both Golden and Pure SC2 cite yomi’s previous game, in which he played blantantly aggressively and voted early off of little (no) evidence. I know this, because I was in the same game yomi was in. His play severely impacted that game, and it was still on my mind in the beginning of this game. What I find interesting however, is that both Golden and PureSC2 are making the beginnings of yomi’s town case FOR him, with the previous game serving as “meta-game evidence”. This is suspicious to me. They are beginning yomi’s defense case for him, why not let him make it? Further, if yomi decided to use this “meta-game evidence to make a case for himself eventually, I would be highly suspicious of yomi, because it could be a perfect mafia play. If other “townies” began the defense for yomi, it’d go down a lot better. However, I can’t make a claim against yomi because he really hasn’t said much. So, ##FOS: Golden, PureSC2. thezenman + Show Spoiler + Your filter consists of 1)lynch vs no lynch opinions, 2) defensive questioning, 3) a brief overview summary opinions on people. This shows me that although you been posting, you lack substance in your post. Your opinions on people are rather general, or they are merely in dull agreement with others. ##FOS @lurkers; post!!!!! get into town discussion @everyone else; keep posting!! there has been lots of discussion going on, and lots of things analyzing needs to be done. don't be afraid to keep it coming. @yomi; waiting on some concrete analysis ##FOS Golden, Pure SC2, thezenman for now, ## unvote This post occured fairly early in the game. He admits that he jumped on the bandwagon to vote for WhySoMuch because Yomi voted for WSM earlier. In literally the next sentence, Nreekay states that Yomi's overagressiveness is detrimental. Perhaps he was under the same misunderstanding as I was, and thought the day was already a good portion consumed. Whatever the reason, it seems more illogical than scummy to me. On to his second point (he should have used then instead of than, but anyways...), some suspicion has been cast on his saying that the no-lynch is important, despite being pro-lynch. To me it seems much more logical to assume that he was referring to his next point, which is that if we had decided to not lynch the first day, there wouldn't have been much discussion. I don't think anyone would think a first day where there is zero discussion and no lynch favors the town. After that, he simply casts some suspicion on 3 players (golden, pure, and Zen). I think this was actually really good, as it lead to discussion, and helped to establish Golden and Pure as pretty solid non-scum reads. In total, I think that parts of this post were ill-explained or just plain illogical, but I don't see any scumminess. + Show Spoiler [Second Post (O Lord,What have I begun?)] + + Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 13:57 nreekay324 wrote: @yomi When I posted last night, I was thinking that Golden&PureSC2 were suspicious; They were brushing off suspicion towards you by acknowledging that this was your “playstyle “. But the reason I didn’t flat out say I was suspicious of you, yomi, was because I was waiting on your analysis/reads. Last game, you laid out some good stuff I would have went off of more (if i didn’t get shot). But I’m still waiting for that this game. Maybe you’re holding off until there’s more info, but the pace of this game is so much faster that there’s lots of stuff to go through already. So my point is, I think part of me had acknowledged your aggressive play of random voting, and had already seen you innocent. But I’ve been waiting for you to make a case, or add some analysis, or something.I realize now that my suspicion on golden&puresc2 are highly based on my suspicion of you, yomi. Its definitely possible they’re townies afraid of mis-lynching. (Golden stated he’s for d1 lynch, puresc2 finds no-lynch circumstantially acceptable) It seems puresc2, inparticular, is pretty against mis-lynches. If you don’t add anything, then you have the easiest job right now as mafia, because you’re pretty much getting a free pass atm. ##FOS yomi /remove suspicion from golden and puresc2 until I get a better read on yomi @thezenman I think what I said earlier still stands. But I think also, you have to realize that if you’re town, you should be playing to contribute to the discussion through analysis, interpretation, and taking stances based on these. First, to this ; I would agree with you if you had come out and said my reasoning for voting for whysomuch was shitty. But it was early on, I was impulsive, and that’s all I can really say about it. If you think that I deserve a vote for this, there’s that. But I didn’t make case against them just because they made one against me. There were plenty of people who had/have their suspicions against me. But I made a case against them because I thought I thought I thought I saw a connection between them. (As above, it was related to yomi). I absolutely do not think that people should get voted for no reason, if this were near the deadline it would have been ridiculous. When you say this; it just sounds like; hey, i’ve got to defend myself. you’re not contributing either, why don’t you contribute? You need to contribute more than I do. I want to make the point that your posts should have more concrete analysis. As you mentioned earlier, when you throw suspicion back to people who are pointing their fingers at you, you only look more suspicious. Your post of opinions on people was mainly just like/dislike of those people. I get that you’re being pressured, but take the time to develop more analysis that contributes to overall town discussion. If you’re only defending yourself the whole time, it adds very little. Again, I can't help but approve of the way that Nreekay was driving us forward. Yomi had been suspicious, voting for one person without evidence and then not posting any reasoning or evidence for what he did. Look at that in a vacuum, and it makes a lot of sense. It is just a mite hypocritical for Nreekay, simply because he also voted with basically no evidence. But he then told us why he voted the way he did. I find this odd (and again, illogical), but not consistent with the mindset of mafia. After this part though, he goes on a diatribe against Zen, and I honestly have no idea what it was meant to prove. I simply cannot wade through that portion, and if someone else were to comment on it I'd love to hear something about it. I just have no fucking clue what that was supposed to do, who it was supposed to convince, anything. Summary: Again, his play here seems more illogical than suspicious. Perhaps we have completely different mindsets... + Show Spoiler [The Dark Descent] + I really should have waited until morning for this. Anyways, here's his 3rd post that has real content in it. + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2012 01:52 nreekay324 wrote: Greetings again, D2, here we go; Veriat flipping red. + Show Spoiler + This is awesome for us, because not only did we already get one mafia, he was a roleblocker. I don’t know how many roles mafia get, but that was definitely a plus. Info from votes to who voted for him, there was; Veriat: (7): yomi, The_Zen_Man, WhySoMuch, Pure-SC2, Splinter[eP], Mordanis, O.Golden_ne. Important details include that veriat got the minimum 7/7 votes, and that the swing vote was a vote change golden made from aces to veriat. It seems unreasonable that golden was swing vote to knock veriat off just to gain town cred, as it’s not statistically favorable for mafia on a D1 lynch. For now, you have my town read Golden + Show Spoiler + I can’t see mafia offing one of their own for street cred on a minimum vote, but it’s notable it’s a possibility Looking at Veriat’s filter there’s not much to go off of. He has scum reads on thezenman, me, and jailbreaker. However, he makes no case against them, or (for zenman) a really weak case. In itself, there's so little posted it's hard to make anything of it. yomi flipping green. + Show Spoiler + Personally, I had him pegged as mafia, and I have re-evaluations to do. It’s confusing as to why the mafia chose yomi, he was a lurker, albeit with either good luck or gosu senses on veriat. However, it does give us something interesting, as one person did vote for him... Jailbreaker + Show Spoiler + 1) Only vote on yomi, and yomi was shot night cycle. 2) Posts don’t seem to have a lot of content, there’s a lot of summary and weak accusations/ questioning. 3) This quote in particular; On April 29 2012 04:09 Jailbreaker wrote: nonononononono water you guys doin? you planet all wrong. Can't you see that other players are trying to rush people into a decision so fast?? Just because we dun have a majority vote, doesn't mean we should rush. Even though I voted for Yomi so fast in the game, i didn't rush. Just like what golden says, stay clam and dont panic. I know its fail logic right here, no apollo-gies here on my part. This was a decent amount of time before the lynch-veriat train really started rolling, jailbreaker tries to advocate against it. He doesn’t provide any case in favor of Veriat however, and just side-steps the issue. 4) And then this, On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote: Since I voted to horribly wrong, I'm going to delay my vote until it is closer to the deadline. It’s like jailbreaker wants to let other people make cases for him, so that he can choose the safest one to vote for and thus remain safe. 4) Was on Veriat’s “scum” list. I”ll defer to whysomuch for this; + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 09:12 WhySoMuch wrote: However JailBreaker, this is exactly how a newer mafia would do it, he just throws his name out there with some lame, non existent reasoning. I am moving Jailbreaker to the mafia side for this alone. @Pure SC2- + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2012 06:46 Pure-SC2 wrote: nreekay324 - His filter reads suspicious to me. I see a vote for WhySoMuch, followed by an unbolded unvote. He then leaves it at that. He makes no comment against the most suspicious person in the game so far, who was proven to be mafia. So he votes for WhySoMuch, and has FoS against Golden, Me, Yomi and The_Zen_Man (incidently all of which voted for Veriat). Very suspicious. I should clarify, I hadn’t intended to neither leave it at whysomuch nor unvoted, but I was unable to return to the deadline. (I’ll look at whysomuch again later in this post). Apparently my unvote wasn’t registered so I didn’t get targeted by nova(looks like aces didnt get modkilled either, so I would have been okay anyway?) When I did find time to check up, it was in the night cycle and it seemed fruitless to post anything then. In regards to what you said, I’ll point out that in one of my posts I state that my FoS ; you and golden were related to yomi, as in if yomi was mafia then I would pursue you two. As he isn’t, the point is moot. Also, if you looked carefully, I made those FoS before yomi even voted for veriat. To this; On April 30 2012 17:58 Pure-SC2 wrote: Why was yomi killed? Mafia hit people for a reason. What was the reason behind yomi getting whacked? Well in the course of day 1, other than getting annoyed by WhySoMuch, he had genuine suspicions of two people, Veriat and nreekay324. We know one of them was scum, and nreekay324 is my strongest scum read (refer to my night post just before the deadline). If you were the two remaining mafia, and you had seem yomi lead the lynch on one of your scum buddies, and he had found you suspicious, wouldn't that make him a good target? Interesting points related to the hit on yomi: - After the first day post, nreekay324 states "looks like my suspicions about yomi may have been wrong though..." - this is interesting in that if nreekay324 knows yomi is about to die and flip town it's a good way to clear himself from his earlier stated suspicions of yomi. - People who found yomi suspicious: Jailbreaker, AcesAnoka, nreekay324 I said that because yomi voted for veriat in the very beginning. I thought it was unlikely yomi would have voted veriat in the beginning, because why choose a scum buddy when there were other lurkers to vote? Yomi was highly suspicious, and deserved this suspicion. He was lurking, HARD, and throwing out ##votes for other people to analyze. He could have easily been switching between townies, trying to confuse the town conversation. I’ve been thinking of why they would shoot yomi (I have an idea, as described later), but I don’t know what to say about it “clearing” me. I can deny it, saying that it’d be foolish because it doesn’t clear me, it really incriminates me (I have nothing original now that yomi is green), but then we’ll start throwing WIFOM around and we’ll get nowhere. If you think it’s enough to vote for me, well there’s that. @Golden- + Show Spoiler + Your first half analysis of whysomuch was rolling towards #FOSwhysomuch, but you conclude that he’s more likely an overly aggressive towny in your opinion. Is this because he voted for you/ is suspicious of you? It seems you’re trying to discredit him and his earlier posts, and as such his suspicions of you. I have my own opinions, but I was wondering if this was the point you were making. In regards to my case against yomi, I don’t know what you mean by squirmy. But I would find it agreeable to say that when yomi flipped green, my case got shit on. There’s another post later, where I state that you and puresc2’s suspicions were really based on my suspicions of yomi being mafia, and since he wasn’t I no longer have suspicions against you two in regards to that. Re-evaluations @puresc2, golden -no more suspicions whysomuch + Show Spoiler + This jumps out at me. Why bring this up, right after the mafia lynch? This may be what golden was referring to as “the champion” of veriat’s lynch. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 08:15 WhySoMuch wrote: Well this game just became a lot more simple. The_Zen_Man Splinter Pure_SC Mordanis Myself Look the best for their voting yesterday Also, he made a case against veriat and helped push his lynch. But quick-scum/town lists based on one or two ideas is messy. It’s more beneficial to take time looking at specifics and make cases (unless you’re mentioning something in a sort of passing way that you don’t want to forget), and then organize that info into lists of scum/town. It’s very confusing play,maybe just scummy town play. thezenman + Show Spoiler + I’m removing my suspicions from him now, for the case he made against Veriat. Its decent enough, and I don’t see any reason he would have, as mafia, to make such an extended case against Veriat, which contributed to the bandwagon to get veriat lynched. Acesanoka + Show Spoiler + A number of arguments have been made, and not much to add to them because he hasn’t been posting much. He, like other lurkers, should be pressured D2. What got the successful D1 lynch was from pressuring lurkers (yomi called out veriat for this very reason). We need to keep this up. @Blue role players + Show Spoiler + It’d be detrimental to name players, so to “all blue roles”. As I was reviewing yomi’s filter, something popped out to me; On April 29 2012 08:14 yomi wrote: Night time is generally not a great time to post. Let the blue players do what they want and don't give mafia any hints on who they should kill. This is only a thought, but the mafia may have been hoping for a lucky blue snipe. It makes sense, because yomi was semi-lurking (blue roles tend to play more cautiously to protect the blue role). It’s not concrete, but it’s a possibility. We’re already ahead of the mafia, so we don’t need blues to do anything reckless (i.e. claim) ##vote: AcesAnoka ##FOS: Jailbreaker I'll do my best to check this/ stay active more. I understand we need to push the lead we have on the mafia. This actually confuses the hell out of me. It makes sense. In a garbled, warped way, perhaps, but he manages to communicate ideas. This is a major step up for him. Some of the things he brings up I disagree with, but this post doesn't have the batshit crazyness his first two posts had. There are only two things I find suspicious with this post. First, why did he vote for Aces? Yeah, there were some decent arguments for lynching him, but there were some pretty major shake-ups with Veriat turning out to be mafia. The other suspicious thing to me is his little comment about the blue role players. Why would he be able to name names? Why would it be detrimental to to do so? This is the prime example of the illogical world that Nreekay has been posting from. Final read from this: This paragraph exudes illogic and dumb-townie. Almost too much so. It feels, somehow, contrived + Show Spoiler [Final Thoughts] + Okay, so to sum up my feelings on Nreekay, I'd have to say that right now I'm getting much more of an incompetent/illogical town read than a straight scum read. As I just wrote however, it does feel somewhat contrived, and so whether its simply a function of a less-than-superior mastery of the language/rhetoric, or whether he's trying to hide something, is beyond me to say. More than anything, his posting makes my head hurt. Prime example: several times he's told everyone to stop lurking, but he has published little content. WTF? Does he not realize that other people have posted much, much more than him? All said and done, I weakly support a lynch for him in the future if he doesn't change. He isn't adding anything to the discussion, but only distracting from it with senseless posts. The difference I see between him and Jailbreaker is that Jailbreaker seems much more active in his attempts to throw us off (if he indeed is). Where Nreekay seems to be simply bad at communicating (and lilely mafia in general), Jailbreaker seemed to be actively trying to steer us away from voting for Veriat. I'm getting a fairly weak town read for Nreekay, but I don't mind a lynch because I'd say there's probably a 30-35% probability he's mafia (just made that up completely off the top of my head), but either way he isn't helping. So for the final judgement: Unless Jailbreaker manages to completely exculpate himself, I'd favor a lynch for Jailbreaker. I would however vote for either one. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
I'm sure you've read my opinion on this type of question before, but I think that Jailbreaker is the most obvious candidate for a lynch. First, I think he looks the scummiest. We want to get rid of the scum. But secondly, if we're wrong and he turns out to be town, we aren't going to lose much. His posts are confusing, shallow, and (with the "nononononono you are planet wrong" post) actively making an argument not to lynch scum, without evidence, and against his earlier stance "THERES MAFIA SCUM AMONG US". Using my patented SCUm DEtection Probability (SCUDEP: my arbitrary estimates of the probability that a player is mafia), I'd say Jailbreakers maxing at maybe 55% (compared to 20% random), but we would only really lose a number from our town count, and gain freedom from seemingly actively dumb posts. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Also, Jailbreaker hasn't posted at all in 32 hours, with only 7 to go before lynching time. I honestly can't seem to find anything he's done that could take some suspicion off. If he's town, he's doing a reeeeeeeeeeeeeally bad job of it. | ||
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
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Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Or what if you wer 65% sure one player was mafia, but he posted a lot and made a lot of sense. But another player was up for lynching, and you were only 45% sure he was mafia, and he posted illogically, inconsistently, and generally badly. Which one would you vote for (Since this is a thought experiment, think of the percentages more generally plz)? Personally, the one who posted worse seems like the better candidate to me because its a lower risk/ lower reward, in other words its the safer play. | ||
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