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On April 27 2012 08:24 johnnywup wrote:
laya, he switched back. it could be an honest mistake of not thinking about the tie rule. I do find votes alignment indicative but in this specific situation I can't see this being specifically scummy or townie, or revealing of either players alignment based on a flip. his voting on ottox in the first place may be alignment indicative, but the vote switch isn't.
i think its probable he just forgot about the tie rule. If you think he realized "oh, my voteswitch and the voteswitch back will change first majority to zeph, but my vote won't change really", then carry on thinking that, but I don't think that that is what happened.
I'm somewhere in the middle I think. Like - it looks bad, and the fact of the matter is, his last minute switch DID CHANGE the result. It really could be scum trying to save their KP.
On the other hand, it is also entirely possible that Broodking voted late just because he wasn't sure, and he finally voted on who he found scummy, and Risen just fucked up.
This is why I said earlier, when we lynch someone tomorrow there better be a good total case on them, not just this voting weirdness.
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You have questions to answer, St. Daniel.
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And you wasted it on that Mementoss? wow.
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On April 27 2012 09:04 Mementoss wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 09:03 marvellosity wrote:
And you wasted it on that Mementoss? wow. well I only had 5 minutes to whip something up that was in my mind bro you mad at it?
Not mad at all, just baffled that that would be the one thing you chose.
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And yet 0 in the 4 minutes between your last comment and then you saying you weren't going to post, dearest
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Well, this is just annoying.
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On April 27 2012 19:27 Risen wrote:
I'm going to sleep. Will look through Mt's filter tomorrow to see if he was trying to point something out to us from his night 1 tracking result.
Um, we want youir best cases and reads as promised first
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Alright, a post of where I'm at today and what I plan to be doing this evening. When I'm home from work this evening, I want to be looking hard at Ottoxlol (as a likely lynch today), Risen (vote last night, but also he has had significant cases against him), and MidnightGladius (layabout's testament if you will).
But before this, the lurker problem. Let's go.
BroodkingEXE: Spoilered below is his one significant post over the last few days.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 26 2012 02:19 BroodKingEXE wrote:@Marvel It seems like your posting has gotten a lot better since you started so I am going to take my scum suspicions off you. I still have mixed feelings on your scattershot accusations, but they seem to be based off real facts. You asked me about Zephirdd/Sentinel/Ottoxlol. Out of the three of them I find Zephirdd pretty scummy, his last minute vote seemed rushed to me as if he was a Mafia trying to jump a bandwagon. Regardless of the fact that he mistimed the vote he made a post like this: Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 07:53 Zephirdd wrote:
Oh it seems I have an hour still. Will reconsider. I see this post as quite scummy, what does he mean by will reconsider? That statement leads me to believe that he bandwagoned the vote(which he in fact admitted) and is trying to set up a situation where he can say that the vote was rushed later. Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 09:53 Zephirdd wrote:
because it's fun to create a scumlist prior doing any analysis or whatsoever,
MidnightGladius
marvellosity
PaqMan
--insert unknown scum here--
List done out of pure feelings and zero evidence or analysis and should not be taken seriously at all
Also, may I remind you that my vote was completely and ultimately worthless, as in, even if I didn't vote VE would die. Also, keep this in your mind: if I knew VE was going to die already, and if I already knew he was a JK(as in, if I was scum), why the fuck would I instantly jump right at the deadline and put a worthless vote on him when I could simply vote, say, marvellosity?
Suddenly, I'm not looking that bad anymore, am I?
Also I agree with BMurray being vigged. I'm not sure if he is town or scum, but it would be better if he just died and we didn't had to care about him anymore. This post is also very scummy, what is the point of creating a scum list based on no evidence? He says not to take it seriously, but then why did he post it? He then says that he would have put his vote on marvel, one of the people on this "emotion-based" scum list, seems pretty fishy to me. He easily could have made a scumslip, and is trying to make up a hypothetical situation which makes him look better. He then flips around the idea of him making a case/analysis, and proceeds to say that he doesn't need to make a strong case against anyone. Recently he has been using more of his hypothetics to convince people to not vote for him. This is WIFOM reasoning and leads me to believe he is trying to mislead the town. I only see one useful post (the one about his reads on the town), but it even has a lot of unsupported conlclusions and blatant contradictions. I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post.
Where he calls Zephirdd scummy without apparently being sure. This is to be followed by his last-minute vote on Zephirdd that layabout absolutely hated. Also as noted before he promised us his thoughts on Sentinel and gave us nothing. Need more atm.
St. Daniel: Mr Lurky himself. Food poisoning or not, I will requote my earlier post, spoilered below, showing how he posted 3 times in another game and 0 in this one despite promising to:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2012 21:04 marvellosity wrote:First of all - sorry if you were ill, that sucks. Nonetheless I will point this out Show nested quote +On April 25 2012 11:29 St.Daniel wrote:
Sorry guys. To make a long story short, I was retarded and I had food poisoning. I sincerely apology. I'll try my best to dedicate to this games. This post in no way explains the post below. You were well enough to post at 3 distinct times in a different game yesterday yet not at all in this one. Excuse or not, that is still dodgy. Show nested quote +On April 24 2012 22:40 marvellosity wrote:Also, I don't want this to get lost on St. Daniel. On April 22 2012 16:44 St.Daniel wrote:
I do have a case for Marv and I'm not sure how I feel about Ghost, but it's 3:40 and I'm dead tired. I'll post tomorrow on those two so please understand. Bold is my emphasis. On April 23 2012 08:58 St.Daniel wrote: On April 23 2012 11:11 St.Daniel wrote: On April 23 2012 11:41 St.Daniel wrote: The three timestamps above are his posting in SNMN X. But absolutely nothing here since the first post I quoted. Promise to post, then doesn't post, despite clearly being online at various other times the next day.
Further this we have a ninja and hitherto totally unexplained vote on Zephirdd. Anyway, we have a bunch of totally meaningless posts from him of late.
On April 25 2012 11:29 St.Daniel wrote:
Sorry guys. To make a long story short, I was retarded and I had food poisoning. I sincerely apology. I'll try my best to dedicate to this games.
Alright, although as mentioned it didn't explain the inconsistency in my spoilered post.
On April 25 2012 11:55 St.Daniel wrote:Show nested quote +thinking about it, I retract my previous statement about marvellosity. For now. Why are you retracting your statement? What made you think that your previous analysis on Marvellosity was lacking or invalid? There must be a reason why you are not as sure as you were before. Also, "for now?" Do you still think Marv is a scum? PS - I'm trying to get back into the game.
Ok, asking Zephirdd about his stance on me, fair enough I guess. Again mentioning how he's trying to get back into the game.
On April 27 2012 08:51 St.Daniel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 07:42 johnnywup wrote:
i dont think anyone persons flip confirms any other person as scum or town, it may increase odds but i don't think that that should be a basis for getting reads on people -.- I agree. We should also consider who someone voted with. For sample, if 2 or more people casted the lynch vote on same person for multiple lynches, thst's something we need to take a look at. Note that my theory doesn't work 100% of times but it is something to think about.
Speculation that doesn't actually help anything.
On April 27 2012 08:56 St.Daniel wrote:What's up, Paqman 
Wow. Glad he posted this nugget of wisdom.
On April 27 2012 09:07 St.Daniel wrote:
Alright. It seems I'm back before BM.
This is what happened: I was playing two games of mafia like a total idiot and I got a food poisoning on Monday. I was sick as a dog for a couple days and I had dropped the other game because I just couldn't keep up. First and foremost, I apologize to all of you for being inactive. It was all my fault to join two games at the same time. I've learned my lesson. Also I'm so grateful to iGrok for correcting me of my mistake and understanding of my situation.
YET ANOTHER POST apologising for his absence. If he spent half the bloody time scumhunting as apologising we might be getting somewhere. But no.
On April 27 2012 12:26 St.Daniel wrote:
It's ok, iGrok. I hope your job interview went well. I swear I didn't think Mementoss would die. Also, we don't have Vig? That's rather unfortunate, because we spent good chunk of first day talking about it (leading up to VE's claim). My guess are now MG, Sentinel, Mattchew and PaqMan.
More wishy washy crap on job interview, Mementoss dieing, vigi, followed by totally unsubstantiated finger pointing.
And still absolutely no explanation of his vote on Zephirdd.
No, I don't like any of this at all. I'm very much leaning scum on him at the moment.
Bill Murray: the 'wildcard' as it were. Bad vote and explanation on VE day 1. 'Had a busy life' day 2. Alright alright. But at some point he needs to start contributing with actual cases.
Janaan: My only lurky person who I'm leaning on the town-side of null. I'd simply like to hear a lot more from him.
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On April 27 2012 23:28 johnnywup wrote:
marv your whole argument is that he doesn't say anything with his post, which I can say about your argument against him too. you're "commentating" his posts but you're not making an actual argument on why he's scum
He's saying absolutely nothing. He has completely blanked the fact that he posted 3 times in another game on a day and not in this one. He has completely blanked and failed to explain his vote on Zephirdd. He's giving a list of scum without any reasoning at all. What more do you want me to say?
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On April 28 2012 04:55 Mattchew wrote:
Scum is in these 6 players and if at anypoint I die please lynch these
Ottox
Risen
Brood
BM
MG
St.Daniel
I also feel this is the case. For all the crap Ottoxlol has posted, this is totally true:
On April 28 2012 04:48 Ottoxlol wrote:Not willing to discuss other people is anti town. I feel I am getting lynched today, but I would like see other names coming up from everyone. When I flip town you will have no information to work with. So no, Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 00:56 ghost_403 wrote:
Hey guys, let's lynch Ottoxlol.
##vote ottoxlol is not enough
I haven't seen analysis from anyone yet, and that makes me a sad panda. I'm going to shower and then do my best to do some myself, I would encourage everyone else to as well.
At the moment we have the Ottoxlol/Risen issue, but saying "vote x" isn't really sorting it out, is it?
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On April 28 2012 05:40 BroodKingEXE wrote:
@johnny If we lynch him noe we have a 50% chance of lynching a goon or GF. I'd rather we take the chance than lynch another townie. Great if it he is a goon as they lose a KP, if not we take out a GF which is fine too. In terms of information, people having been defending and accusing him why dont we look at that?
Yes, go on then, please analyse it and tell us what you find, eh?
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On April 28 2012 06:14 Mattchew wrote:
Hey janaan why don't you stop asking questions and give some opinions on the topics/players of the day. What do you think of my plan for a course of action and scum list?
This a hundred times over
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On April 28 2012 06:41 Mattchew wrote:
ok taking a long look into janaan.
I did have a look quite recently, and as in my post a little earlier I found he posted quite sensible although not too much. I don't know if that's because he's good at blending in. What I don't like is that his most recent posts basically contributed jack shit to the discussion.
At the moment I'm going through the monumental task that is Risen.
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On April 28 2012 06:45 Janaan wrote:My thoughts on your list Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 04:55 Mattchew wrote:
Scum is in these 6 players and if at anypoint I die please lynch these
Ottox As I said, I still find him pretty scummy. I'm for a lynch on him
Risen I'm still not sure about Risen. On the one hand, it really looked like he was trying to save VE on day 1, but then he pulls that stunt to lynch Zepperdd. I'd agree that if Ottox is scum, it makes Risen look REALLY bad, but I don't think we can take that chance today. I also still want to see everything he promised to post when he thought we'd autolynch him. Scummy, but not a good candidate for today's lynch in my opinion.
Brood He's been one of our lowest posters which does raise red flags (Pot calling the kettle black, I know) and he seems to have connection with Ottox like Risen. I still don't know if he's a good option for lynch today, though.
BM A pretty null read here. He hasn't done much at all, so there's not really much to go off of. I'd say it's possible for him to be scum, but it's just as likely that he's town. Last resort lynch for me
MG In the games I've played with MG, I've never been able to clearly read him. I don't know what it is. He seems scummy in this game, though.
St.Daniel We've got almost nothing to go on here. What he has posted doesn't look good, and we do for sure that he was lurking, not just AFK. He said he'd try to "get back in the game" but hasn't really done much since. Leaning scummy for me, but not much of a better lynch than BM right now
As for your plan, I don't think it's a bad one. I still think the votes shouldn't start piling up until later so that there's a reason for people to talk, but that's just my opinion. The problem with making connections like you've done is that until a scum is flipped, it's all speculation. It's still possible for scum to be outside your list, I just don't know where. For the time being, those 6 are a good place to start, and I do agree that Ottoxlol is who we should start with.
Ok, if we put Ottoxlol to the side, who exactly is your best scumread and why? I would like your best read AND accompanying case if possible.
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ghost, I think that whole case is fucking awful. wbg's Blazhand meme would fit perfectly here.
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On April 28 2012 07:14 ghost_403 wrote:
@marv: K. Why?
Because actually Risen is quite well known for doing dumb and emotional shit, and actually around the deadline with votes very close is a quite plausible time for him to go a bit crazy. Look how emotionally invested he gets into each game and argument. In this case Risen could be 'bad' as you put it because he's all over the place, not because he's a bad player.
I'm not saying what I'm saying IS necessarily the case, but it could very well be the case. Your argument is that there is only one plausible option, which I simply do not accept.
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On April 28 2012 07:30 ghost_403 wrote:
@marv: I clearly state there are two positions. Either Risen is bad/emotional/whatever, or Risen is scum. I'm saying the second one of those is the better conclusion.
Yes, but that's not a case. That's you thinking one is more likely than the other. THAT IS NOT A CASE.
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On April 28 2012 07:39 ghost_403 wrote:
My conclusion is better because it doesn't rely on a player being terrible in order to explain what happened yesterday. Sorry I can't find any quotes where he says "I'm scum, lynch me". Know why that is? It's because he's not terrible.
Yes, your case relies on multiple people being terrible.
Only a terrible scum TEAM would have let the situation that occurred at the end of the day occur.
Risen (or another scum) could have changed their vote MUCH EARLIER.
Your case relies on scum fucking up and not doing so.
Understand?
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On April 28 2012 07:43 ghost_403 wrote:Show nested quote +But ghost! How did the scum get themselves into this position? Why did Risen sack himself? Why don't you care what he did before he voted to lynch Zephridd?
To answer you: Don't know, don't care. What I know is this. There is no reason for a town Risen to do what he did other than he's terrible. I don't think Risen is terrible. Ask the scum how it ended up happening after the game.
So you think an entire team with RISEN IN IT is just as terrible?
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EPT
