Newbie Mini Mafia IX

On April 16 2012 04:20 Pure-SC2 wrote:

@Nova - Who is your most suspicious read so far?

On April 16 2012 19:58 Pure-SC2 wrote:
Well well. There has been quite some activity since I started doing a complete filter review. It's interesting because it has reinforced the conclusions I came to on my own.

## Unvote


The case against Nova_Terra:

- Nova_Terra's overly emphasised townie position:

The case begins prior to the game even starting. Nova (who has been scum in previous games - I'd recommend a review of Newbie Mini Mafia VII ) is quick to distance himself and reinforce his town stance prior to the game even starting:



He's telling us he's awful town, and that he will be working on it during this game. He is trying to reinforce his town position before the game has even started.

One the game starts, his first post includes this line:



This immediately made me suspicious, as I don't understand why someone who had received a town role would need to state this. The only motive I can determine for stating this is scummy.

Nova said the following in response to Daymor who questioned this:



Again you try to distance yourself from the fact you were mafia in previous games ("you didn't feel like dealing with the stress this time around") however you have no choice over that. You may or may not have been given a role as mafia or town. I find the wording you used here to be very strange and is not the response I would've expected to Daymor's question.


- Nova_Terra's posting without contributing:

On its own I wouldn't say this means anything, and it's something I posted about earlier. But in combination with a few other things it becomes more significant.

When you do a review of Nova_Terra's early filter, essentially he repeats the same stance he has on fluff posting, complains about lack of activity and votes/unvotes a few times. This is done over 14 posts, and makes him look like the most active person in the thread, but if you actually looks at what is included in all those posts, he is actually contributing very little. I find this to be mildly suspicious and it felt like he was trying to position himself as a town leader without actually contributing.


- Nova_Terra's baseless accusation of Solohan50:

I must admit I didn't look into this when it was initially posted, and it was only after a complete filter review that I really began questioning Nova's behaviour here.

Nova stated the following:



Interesting. Ok, what else does Nova say about this?



So if I read this correctly, Nova finds Solohan50s first post scummy, and that because he's a vanilla townie and finds it scummy, another vanilla townie should be able to do the same.

Right. I'm a vanilla townie, so let's look at Solohan50's first post for the smoking gun.



My read on Solohan50's first post. He has stated his thoughts on lurker lynching (not a terrible idea, but doesn't really love it either). He likes the fact you can use it to put pressure on people to post day 1, which will hopefully lead to a better (which I read as more informed) lynch. He then goes on to say lynching a townie that hasn't posted anything provides almost no information.

Ok, so that's my read on his post. I've gone through it several times and don't feel like I'm missing anything here. It seems like a positive townie approach to me for a first post. What is it that Nova sees that I don't? What is his motivation for calling Solohan50 out based on this? I don't see a townie motivation for this, further increasing my suspicion.

Nova also said the following:


Solohan50's second post asked a question on No Lynches. He also asked this question pre-game so doesn't look like it's something he decided on bringing up after he received his role PM. There has obviously been some confusion around no lynch since this game started (I felt like the rules were clear but I guess since it wasn't explicitly stated it has caused confusion), and based on that (and the subsequent discussions and clarification) I don't think his question is suspicious.

*** I will add in relation to this that Solohan50 hasn't contributed a lot since, but in terms of this case against Nova_Terra it doesn't apply, as I'm referring to Nova's on Solohan50's first posts. Solohan50's lurky behaviour should be looked at seperately.


Continuing on....

- Nova_Terra's very defensive responses to oneplus:

This has happened since I did my filter review, and I haven't had a chance to go through this in as much detail as I'd like, but I have work to be done. I may re-visit this later if I see anything more after a further review.

Nova claims an OMGUS reaction reaction to oneplus, which I don't really see. Oneplus has his suspicions of Nova based on his own read, and it would be good for him to elaborate more on this.

However the point I focused on was the way Nova reacted. The defensive tone of his responses definitely do not sound like town, and the only motivation I can see for him posting that way is scummy.


- Nova_Terra's possible accomplices:

Based on my filter review, the two most likely accomplices to Nova_Terra: Lazermonkey and Crossfire99. The case against these two isn't strong, but I would recommend reading through their filter and looking at the way they support Nova on Solohan50.

Also, if you look at the interaction between Nova and Lazer against oneplus, it is also very defensive and nature and shows them supporting each other once again. I think this adds to my suspicion of Lazer who, other than his blind support of Nova's stance against Solohan, has seemed like a good contributing townie.


- Final thoughts on Nova_Terra:

After going through all this, and reviewing Nova's filter looking at him posting as a townie, and posting as scum, the only motivation I can see for his approach thus far (on areas where he has contributed) is scum. This makes me as confident as I can be that he is a good target to vote on for day 1.

## Vote: Nova_Terra


Final thoughts on oneplus - I agree on him being a bad townie, and he has certainly been targeted by Nova_Terra, which seems to be a good motivation for scum to target him and in a sense, further backs up my suspicions on Nova.

So what do you all think? If you don't agree, where do you think my reasoning is wrong? How do you read Nova_Terra based on your own review of his behaviour and filter?

On April 17 2012 00:07 Pure-SC2 wrote:
An interesting post Nova. I've taken some time to go through it and see how it relates to my case against you.

The comments I made about your posts before the game started were expanded on in my EBWOP. They are applicable because you were already trying to distance yourself from your previous mafia roles, which is fine. But, then you continued using that same approach once the game started which immediately rang scummy to me.

You haven't claimed to be a town leader, but from the outset of the day you placed yourself as the post monitor, telling us who was posting fluff, and how hard you were going to be on them, re-iterating the lack of activity (without contributing). That comes across to me as someone who is trying a little too hard to appear active. You already have my thoughts on that.

Regarding your comment towards oneplus:

That sounds a lot like you in regards to your suspicious of Solohan50, don't you think? We're still waiting for this insightful explanation as to why his first post was scummy.

I've re-read oneplus's filter and agree with the assessment made by Lorant, that oneplus obviously doesn't speak english natively and as such his posts take a bit more reading. Even so, I can see that he does provide some reasoning as to why he suspects you:
- Notes that Lazer and Nova are very firm to lynch someone
- Picks up on the fact that Nova constantly refers to mafia role in previous games
- Highlights Novas over reactive defensive posting to his suspicions
- Picks up on the association between Nova and Lazer that I noticed also.

* This is significantly more reasoning than you've given for your suspicions against Solohan50.



It's not just a similar view, Lazer (and to a lesser extent Crossfire) supported you in your suspicions of Solohan50 without one shred of reasoning, just like you. Rather than offer any reasoning as to why you think there is no association between you, or even offering your reasoning for suspicions on Solohan, you take a further defensive stance without offering anything.

At this stage, I don't have a scum read on Crossfire, only noted the association. I'll be looking at Lazer more closely as he has several things in his filter now that tend towards scum.



For me, this occurred when I was able to build a case I had a reasonably high level of confidence in. Which is quite a sensible approach if you think about it.

And voting for someone who is suspicious (for several reasons) is a great idea if you have that read on day 1.

Using the fact that you've created discussion as a reason not to lynch you is not a defence.



This just sounds anti-town to me.

I reviewed everyone's filter, and when I looked at my notes afterwards, I had you as the most suspicious based on the reasons already stated. I noticed that in the time I'd put that together, Oneplus and Daymor has posted a similar read.

On April 15 2012 00:46 Solohan50 wrote:
Yeah, lynching lurkers isn't a terrible idea (it's not spectacular either though), especially if you make it known ahead of time. That (should) inspire everyone to post at least a little bit, giving us more information on Day 1 and hopefully leading to better lynches. With any luck though, everyone will be active and we can avoid having to lynch a lurker. If the lurker that gets lynched Day 1 is Town, then we gain almost no information, because they haven't posted anything.

tl:dr Post, people!

On April 16 2012 15:35 Lazermonkey wrote:
Morning everyone!

So I wake up, read the thread and tbh I'm quite dissapointed in the progress made during the night. We are getting nowhere atm. We really need to stop discuss the possibility of no lynches.



I agree with you, but this would only occur if everyone had posted really good opinions and cases. We aren't even close to that point right now. The following effects of a no lynch atm would probebly be something in line with:

1. Noone is lynched
2. Mafia most likely get a kill since there is such a small chance that the roleblocker/jailer would hit the right target due to little information.
3. The killed target townie and is a lurker/person who only posted that no lynch is a good opinion.
4. No info is have been archived.



I'm not sure if noob or scum, but This has been said over 9000 times in this thread. Please post something new...

small chance that the roleblocker/jailer would hit the right target

On April 16 2012 21:19 Lazermonkey wrote:
Wow, that is some really nice analysis, Pure! Here are my random thoughts about it

Up untill this point I was quite sure that Nova wasn't scum, but now I'm starting to question it. An aspect that I think that you havn't brought up is his early game. The one thing that reallty is Pro-town about him is that he really tried his best to get the discussion going. He did some pressures and tried to get the lurkers to speak. He also was very clear about that he didn't like any fluff, although it is true he have been posting lots of posts that havn't really addded anything at all. This could be explained by the fact that we all pretty much agreed upon that lynching lurkers would be possible on day 1 and that he tried to get immune to lynches the very first day be being active. So with that in mind I think that his early game plans isn't very telling. It could've been done outof both perspectives. I'm writing as I am thinking, which is why the text above at first looks very fluffy ^^. Still think it is nice to know.

As for Solohan50, The one thing I thought was that the 2 very short posts he actually made were basically echoing what everybody had said a dozen times before him. For me, this looked like a nice way to put some pressure at him and make him contribute and post some more material, rather than actually saying that he was 100% scum. As for Nova intention tho, I have no idea.

The only thing that is problematic with your post is how late it is. I know this could be because of a thousand reasons but it does in fact make a difference. To me, most of thoose reasons could be broke down into;

1)You are a townie/blue and just havn't had the time to post.
2)You are scum and want to protect your scum-bro macheji, who I think got the most votes atm(although that seems quite unlikely to me as you set him up on your list of lurkers of people that you are fine with lynching).
3)You are scum, macheji is a townie/blue but you would rather kill Nova as you see him as a bigger threat.

I think 1 is the most likely, but all should be considered.

Atm I think the most interesting lynch would in fact be Nova. Not because he is confirmed scum in any way, but because of the possible information we could be given. If he flips town, we really need to think about Pure intention with his post.

## Unvote
## Vote Nova_Terra

On April 17 2012 04:10 Pure-SC2 wrote:
Adding to my case on Nova...

Nova's made two comments regarding Solohan's second post.





Solohan's second post:

- This was in direct response to Crossfire99's post before his, which was talking about no lynches on day 1. His post does add to what was being discussed at that very moment. It doesn't seem scummy in the slightest.


@Nova_Terra - I've reviewed your analysis of Solohan50's first post. I don't understand your reasoning, it's his first post, he's stating his opinion, why is having an opinion that someone else has had bad? He seems to get across quite clearly to me what he thinks, and I provided my interpretation of that in my original case against you.


@BlueyD - I notice in your analysis of my case against Nova you didn't mention his aggresively defensive stance, which has been used against three people at least so far. This is not generally considered townie behaviour and was a key part of what led me to raising a case against Nova. When you add all the elements together, I asked myself what the motivation for his posts were.


Based on my review, and subsequent case, if Nova is town, he is a terrible townie (3 people finding suspicious behaviour for different reasons in the space of a day).

I believe he's scum, and unless anything more comes to light will keep my vote on him.

On April 17 2012 01:17 Solohan50 wrote:
Sheesh, you Euros blew up this thread while I was asleep. :-O

After looking through some filters, we definitely have a fair amount of lurkers floating around. Unfortunately, it's hard to tell if they're just busy people or if they're lurking in a scummy way. So far, the list appears to be:

Crossfire - 3 posts after the game has started, and all regarding Day 1 lynches. Hasn't contributed anything else though. He did post that he was unsure of how you lynch a person on Day 1 at the beginning of the game. His last two posts, however, had a much more confident tone about who and why we should lynch on Day 1. Is this scum that's playing coy, or did he just read up on the subject? Since it's a newbie game, I'm inclined to give him a pass on the change of tone (for now), and assume that he went out and read a Mafia guide or something.

Macheji - Hasn't posted in 2 days. Likely getting modkilled. Not much else to say since he hasn't posted anything.

BlueyD - Has 3 posts since the game started. Tacitly supports Nova based on information from previous games. Gets a little caught up on the No Lynch debate, but provides more analysis than most have.

TheRavensName - A handful of one-liner posts and a safe vote for the lurker who's likely to get modkilled (though to be fair, the modkill wasn't on the table until recently).

Oneplus - He's lurked to a lesser extent. He's come out of hiding in the last day and started becoming more active. Since Mecheji had more votes than oneplus did at the time oneplus reappeared, I'm inclined to say that the lurking wasn't a scumslip. If Oneplus had more votes than Mecheji at the time Oneplus returned, I would be more inclined to say that he started posting due to pressure, but that's not the case.

Therapist - Has only really posted about the No Lynch and hasn't posted since. I'd like to see him post more so I can get more of a feel on him. The confusion about the No Lynch is understandable, but it's hard to get a read when that's all he's posted about.

-----------------------------------

And then there's Nova. He decried spam and fluff posts at the beginning of the game, but a good portion of his posts have been one liners, such as:





He's also been overly aggressive and defensive, moreso than a Townie should be, even going so far as to say:



I can't tell if that's a veiled threat or if Nova is just an asshole (or both?).

On top of that, his whole argument against me was an argument reminiscient of an old, married couple. I ask what I did wrong, and he responds with "You know what you did wrong!". Hyperbole aside, even after I replied, saying that I didn't know what he found wrong with my post, he continued with his line that he wanted to see what I said first. This seems like he was just trying to waste time with his accusation while not having to bother backing it up. He only started substantiating his argument against me once he had multiple votes on him, some of which stemmed from his accusations of me. This seems like he's being overly defensive and trying to save his own skin once his accusation got him in hot water. Because of this, I'm going to vote for Nova.

##Vote: Nova_Terra

On April 17 2012 05:54 TheRavensName wrote:
Well if you want Nova, we could fix that xD. Na just kidding. Glad to see you might survive the midnight hour. Though I think that last thing you posted to Cross was stranged to say town or otherwise. Not exactly damming,. just really weird like a bad joke.

On April 18 2012 00:29 Lorant wrote:
I'm very busy today and won't be fit to debate anything until the day after tomorrow. If someone from the council of 4 is shot, he will either be replaced by the most active and sound player from the outer circle (i.e. everyone - (minus) Lazer & Novaplayer) or not .. that is for the council to decide halfway through Day2 which won't be like Day1 + Show Spoiler +. We will establish who is most suspicious prior to the deadline and synchronize our votes with a pre-vote (If there's a tie we seek the advice of our outside consultant (BlueyD).

Mid-nighttime is not the time to be making huge cases. Everyone prepare a statement and post it 2-3 minutes before daybreak to make sure mafia night action has been sent (hopefully the hosts don't mess it up).

On April 18 2012 06:44 Lorant wrote:
Well you two accused oneplus of being noob despite his excellent efforts to make sense out of the information and possibilities he had at that time.. he lost respect and became an easy target, mainly due to your lack of responsibility, he regarded you as a leader and broke his trust and tried to rape his self-esteem. That's why I don't want you to be considered a leader anymore.

On April 18 2012 06:46 Lorant wrote:
Do you know Kohbee? .. You're like Kohbee and there's no point in talking to you as if you could understand the impediment of constructive atmosphere that your lack of self-awareness is producing.

On April 18 2012 06:49 TheRavensName wrote:
Ahh. Well it was more of a continuation of another's thoughts Nova. Personally I'm more suspicious of him then you.

Anyways Lorant, what Nova is trying to say if one Scum is on your council, the entire group is going to be pretty heavily dammed in the eyes of everyone else. Thats the risk that happens with every alliance... and its why forming them on day/night 1 is a terrible idea.

On April 18 2012 06:57 Therapist. wrote:
The idea of a council is extremely strange. There are already two factions in this game - Town and Mafia. By creating a council, are you not creating a THIRD faction? So far it seems that creating a council that excludes others serves ONLY to piss people off and get people arguing back and forth. What is the point of this? Why not just play as one faction - TOWN. I'm for dropping all this distracting council stuff and just focusing on the task at hand - establishing your own innocence and hunting scum.

On April 18 2012 07:15 Pure-SC2 wrote:

Also TheRavensName, Lorant and BlueyD. You really need to contribute more, including some of your own analysis and scum reads. Spend the time to read peoples filters and make your own opinions.

On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote:
[b]NovaTerra (++/--------[/b )]> oh man, oh man... .... Ok here we go. Accuses Solohan of appology post -> makes appology post moments later ( --- ). Made alot of accusations w/o arguments(-)(ex vs solohan, therapist ). Spamming, atleast 6 posts in the first 7 pages saying the same thing(-). From page 8, 18:25, when he is beeing accused he start to seem very troubled, he makes post-after-post, very twitchy. He goes crazy about him beeing the most active person. He gets even more crazy when someone mentions him beeing in the same team with Lazer.At first it seemed like an ok reaction, the guy was mad because he was wrongfully accused, but why get even more stirred up when beeing named a teammate of Lazer, that's something kinda specific to be generally mad against. Also, when Oneplus attack him he tells him he is digging his own grave, he was so sure about it, like he had some power the rest of us do not. Also when Oneplus attacks him in one post he says he is not impressed... he's not impressed of what ? When someone innocent is beeing accused of something, does it ever occure to him to say that he is not impressed with the case against him ? I am acc thinking of those real-life gangsters or white-collar criminals that laugh on the tv when they are beeing accused. ( -- ) . In another post he is accusing bandwaggoning when people started voting for him, but he had no problem with people bandwaggoning when there were like 4 voting me for beeing inactive or for 4 more to vote for oneplus when he got killed. ( - ) . He is by far the most frequent poster ( ++ ), but his posts lack any real information ( already rated this ) . Also it's clear in his mind that mafias are people that generaly don't want attention, so he may meta this and try to hide the poop in plain sight. He even says at a point that '' you do not vote for an active thought player for info'' when someone suggested his lynch in order to get information.

On April 15 2012 00:33 BlueyD wrote:
Do your own analysis, and if you think you have a better case than what's being discussed then POST IT.

On April 15 2012 13:12 BlueyD wrote:
On Nova's voting behavior: Nova played in my previous 2 games so he saw what happened there: First wave of D1 votes came in late, we had very little time to do post-voting analysis, and the resulting situation was chaotic. The intention here is probably just to try and put on 'real' pressure on lurkers earlier so the latter parts of the day is cleaner. A bit spammy but not a scummy move.

---

To oneplus: Just 2 questions aimed at you to show you why 1. saying no-lynch is bad, and 2. having a leader is very bad.

1. How do we pressure scum D1 if we agree to no-lynch?
2. What if the ‘town leader’ who makes the decisions for you is actually scum?

---

era was very active last game, though more in terms of quantity than in terms of quality. Haven’t seen him post since the start of this game yet, though, so my first vote goes to him.

##Vote:era

On April 16 2012 10:26 BlueyD wrote:
I wanna see more from Macheji and oneplus. Oneplus hasn’t replied to me, so:
##Vote: oneplus

We lost too much time and space arguing about lynch vs no-lynch already. We have to lynch, and that’s it. Enough about policy, now let’s look at people.

---

Specifically, the people who sided for a no-lynch, or 'not against'.

On therapist: His stance seems to me like an overreaction to last game, but at least there was a developed thought process behind it. Needs to let go of policy discussion and contribute on analyzing people now, though.
On oneplus: Asked for a no-lynch in his one and only post, and he’s inactive as well... Can’t read more into him until he posts again.
On Solohan: Was already enquiring about the possibility of a no-lynch before he knew his role, so I’m inclined to say he actually thinks no-lynch is a move a town should consider seriously, which makes him... bad.

---

On Daymor: In chronological order...

A little precision right after, nothing wrong with it:

No-lynch is talked about a bunch, he seems to think it would be ok:

And then, he ‘clarifies’ and no-lynch goes from ok to good:

Now that’s more interesting. This guy’s opinion managed to go from “lurker lynch” to “no-lynch ok” to “no-lynch preferable”. That’s the wrong direction for a townie entirely.

On April 17 2012 02:39 BlueyD wrote:
On oneplus: I’m still a bit suspicious. First post was bad and I expected an idiot, but then oneplus shows himself capable of at least some analysis afterwards – did he get help? I still don’t get why Nova and Lazer insisting on a lynch is scummy at all - I note that I did it as well and I’m not being targeted, so it looked a bit like a case of tunnel vision to me - and after that he mostly falls back on a “what the other guys said is what I was thinking but I couldn’t express it (not actual quote)” line for the rest of his case, and we don’t know if that’s true.

Might be his poor English preventing him from explaining by himself earlier, but I would have liked him to try. Right now we don’t know what he was really thinking when he started pushing. The second language excuse could be entirely true, or it could mostly be convenient.

Still he’s active and not particularly scummy, so I’ll take my vote off of him.
##Unvote

---

On Nova_Terra : To me he looks like a guy who’s not worrying at all about his own safety, which is more of a town element than a scum element.

- I don’t think we can read anything from “Okay, thank god, not mafia :D”. Guy has been scum 2/3 times. Unnecessary but not inconsistent with being town.

- Calling Solo scummy with no explanation: Sounds more like a careless townie move than a scum move to me. Scum are paranoid about getting caught and make cases carefully. I think it was stupid to expect Solo to accuse himself and I also think Nova’s case was weak, but it reads more like bad town than scum to me.

- Voting behavior: Spammy, but not scummy. His meta can be described as “hyperactive” as both scum and town so he really doesn’t need that voting stuff to help him look active. Done with no consideration of the fact that this might make him suspect.

Nova knows how to not be a target (see both games as scum where he lasted to the end), so why isn’t he doing it this time? It could simply be that he’s scum and he’s failing really, really hard this time… or it could be that he’s town and scumhunting, not surviving, is his #1 priority. Not convinced by the case on him.

---

##Vote: TheRavensName

Lurker lynch, in the absence of a really good case. Macheji is less active but he doesn’t seem to be here at all... He might be modkilled/replaced. By contrast, TheRavensName has showed up at different times of the day, but only has a bunch of short posts with zero analysis to show for it.

On April 18 2012 07:58 BlueyD wrote:

1. Macheji hadn’t voted, surely you saw that, so I can only imagine your post means “I thought he’d vote really soon.”
2.
4 minutes to read the thread and vote, and he was considering maybe making a case? The guy had no idea that the lynch was (we thought) so close. “I’ll vote really soon” was obviously not in his list of priorities, and I can't see how you would think it was. Let's just ask him:
To macheji: When did you think the lynch was before you read “vote now!” in the thread?

3. Back to Nova, whose more worried posts share one particularity: They both happen after what we thought was the deadline, when votes are typically not counted anymore.

That’s not a convincing reason to me at all. Sounds a bit scummy to me.

On Lazer and Nova: Suspicious of both at this point, probably at LEAST one scum between the two. Not sold on both being scum though, I think there’s a good possibility of scum + fool buddy here – I say we look to see if 1 the 2 was trying to buddy up with the other before the connection was pointed out, and lynch that one first. Town don’t try to buddy up because they don’t want to fall on a scum. Scum know their buddy is town.

I wanted to read both filters and compare but I gave up for the moment, didn’t have this much time this afternoon. STOP SPAMMING NOVA. You have 6 pages of posts already… -_-

On Daymor: On the good side, he’s contributing, but I’m not a big fan of how he changed his stance on both lynch vs no-lynch and Nova vs oneplus, though he did have reasons that don’t seem too far-fetched both times. I’m going to say cautiously leaning town for now, but if I die you guys have to watch for more flip-flops as I’m doing now and see if they mean anything.

To Lorant:Council is stupid or scummy, I don’t see the point in it, I don’t see the point in even talking about it besides wasting space. It can’t make people more logical than now, it can only make them more sheepish. You need to tell us why you feel Pure is scummy, by the way. ‘Gut feeling’ won’t do.

A lot of good stuff in Pure’s and Daymor’s posts already, so I tried to go where they didn’t.

Gotta go right after the flip if I want to catch the next bus back home, will see if I can analyze some more later tonight.

On April 18 2012 14:10 BlueyD wrote:
Pure’s case on Lazer is very good in my opinion. Just want to add something on the whole Nova-Lazer connection:

- Nova is the first of the Nova-Lazer pair to agree to lurker lynch
- Nova is the first to call Solo scummy
- Nova has his vote on macheji when Lazer puts his on the same player
- Nova asks Solohan to find his own suspicious behavior, Lazer says Solo should respond
- When oneplus calls them out, Lazer is the one who first turns on the other.

These aren’t really buddies. This is Lazer trying to ride on Nova’s wave, and he gets off the wave right as Nova gets suspicious in some people’s eyes. This is not something we can really hold against Nova in my opinion. This is certainly something that makes Lazer suspicious.

----------

Just… Wow, Lorant…After you made a big deal about Nova “betraying the trust” of oneplus and being unfit as leader and trying to take the aforementioned leadership for a 4 man council handpicked by you, you post a joke end-of-night post. I don’t know what to make of this. Looks a bit scummy to me, but on the other hand, that post is such a joke… It’s too easy. You even bring up the stupid council-of-4 again after people have attacked you for it.

Please stop fooling around and play the game. Defend yourself.

1. I’ll ask you to explain why you left us nothing (not even a quick list of reads) in case of your death, and I’ll ask you what your current scumreads are.

2. Also, in case it got buried, I’ll say it again: I’d also like you to explain why you flagged Pure_SC2 as scum. I mean, reasons other than ‘your gut’.

----------

To Daynor: That’s an interesting suggestion. We do have a lurker problem, but I think your solution is too radical unless we can get a really good case on a lurker. I remind you, that if we mislynch we’re at 5vs3 (MYLO) tomorrow, and with mandatory lynching MYLO is essentially the same as LYLO.

I think we should concentrate on getting the most scummy person now that we have a lot of info out. I also do think we should start making cases on our less active players. I will do that tomorrow, for now I have to sleep.

On April 19 2012 15:04 BlueyD wrote:
My scumreads right now are the 3 Ls: Lazer, Lorant, and a Lurker.

See Pure’s case and my own comments on Lazer, this case need not be remade. This is the scum I’m most sure of, and so...

##Vote: Lazermonkey

I’ll concentrate on sniffing out the remaining 2 scum. Here’s a case for you:

---

Lorant’s play is just insane, and apparently that’s his metagame… But it also contradicts itself.


But then…


Bolded parts for emphasis. Let’s break this down: Leadership shouldn’t be in the hands of Nova the trustbreaker. It should go to a council on which one is himself (the guy who gets us all to post analysis 2 minutes before the end but trolls town with a jokepost himself – also a breach of trust) and one is someone whom he thinks is scummy. We have here a man full of contradictions.

Lorant’s case on Pure is bad, by the way:

- It is usually true that games with ##No Lynch mention the option in the rules, and I don’t think Pure can be faulted for thinking that no mention in the rules = option is not there, even if that was not clear to others. He was right, by the way.

- The nightposting thing I’m not sure of. We didn’t really discuss the advantages and disadvantages of keeping the night mostly silent; we just did it when Lorant suggested it (Pure included, he did hold back a lot of info), and it might have been a bad move after all. In my other games we just posted at night with no fear and there sure was more information going around. This actually might be a part of why some people lurked – didn’t want to post because there was a town agreement not to, but couldn’t be there at dawn so didn’t post much or at all.

- The rest is his gut feeling again, and fear. He’s not making a case saying “this is the most likely scenario”, he’s making a case saying “this is the worst case I can think of.” This is not how people who want to catch scum think.

---

Remains the third L – the Lurker. That would be either Solohan50, Macheji, Therapist or TheRavensName. Hard to tell which, though. I’ll consider Daymor’s case for tonight:

For Daymor, on Macheji: Interesting case. The first 2 posts you point out do seem scummy/bad, 3rd post sounded to me more like “I don’t know how to use my time efficiently” and is mostly newbish.

On the long post: I did note he had a ++ on therapist which seemed weird to me – therapist is a major lurker right now and there’s no particular reason to see him as townie. I also noted he gave a ++ to crossfire and said he didn’t know of the death at the time of writing – that’s dubious, since he sure knew about the death when he wrote “I didn’t know about the death” – so why give us an outdated read instead of a current read on why he was killed? That’s not helpful.

On your “alarm bells”, I liked the first, not the second. Here’s my interpretation of that one:

It reads better as “imagine an innocent, would he act like this?”, with the answer likely being “no” in Macheji’s mind. Note that as the guy who dismissed a case with "LOL" last game, I don't agree with macheji's opinion here.

On April 19 2012 23:44 Solohan50 wrote:
I'm at work, so I have to be brief. I made a case for Lazer last night, and it appears that I'm not the only one who is suspicious of him. I notice both Pure and BlueyD have made good cases about him as well, which only bolsters my confidence. Because of this, I'm going to vote for Lazer.

##Vote: Lazermonkey

On April 20 2012 00:40 Pure-SC2 wrote:
@Nova - Your suspicions are all over the place.

Solohan then Lazer.

Then right before the night post you state: 1. Lazer 2. TheRavensName 3. BlueyD/Lorant. You say a lazer lynch would be the best option if you died during the night.

Then at the start of this day you voted Solohan.

Now you make a case and switch to BlueyD.

So, what happened to your suspicions of Lazer (your previous number 1) and Solohan (who you've been on since his first post)? Especially when a vote for Lazer is already well established?

Why are you now more suspicious of BlueyD than you are of Lazer?

On April 20 2012 01:05 Pure-SC2 wrote:
It's hard to disagree with the fact he vote switched the moment he was linked with you and a good case was made against you.

It's hard to disagree with the fact he led the vote on oneplus, even after stating several times he thought he was town.

It's hard to disagree with the fact that he disappeared after making the vote against oneplus, and that he didn't offer any real defence to the suspicious against him when he re-appeared.

I did call meta change before I got my role. If I took a big step back, it’s because my first 2 games had me attacking all over the place, causing unintentional chaos, and being the juiciest target at LYLO both times, which led to scum victories (though I was never lynched after all, but no one would listen to me).

- A lurker getting modkilled is worse than a lurker getting lynched because you can get information off of the lynch from where people’s votes went. With a modkill you just lose a player for no reason.

There is a big difference between ‘arguing for and against no-lynch’, and ‘looking at people’s behavior surrounding said issue’. I note that Nova’s case on Solohan relied a lot on said ‘behavior surrounding the issue’, so I don’t see why me commenting on it is scummy. I did focus my analysis on one side of the aisle because that’s the side I thought to be most suspicious, but I did not argue for or against nolynch, which is the real waste of time.

- Real life reasons right now keep me from being here at day apart from lunchtime, and my day is when the majority of player seems to be active. I still try to get out at least a good post at lunchtime and another at night.

- I will remind town I did not only defend Nova; I also attacked him for the macheji modkill stuff. I don’t think I can be accused of stroking his ego with that post, can I?

- As for Nova’s assertion that I don’t say which of Lazer or he is scum at the daybreak post, I note that I did provide a hint as to how town should find out. I simply didn’t have time to carry that analysis out right there, but I later returned and did exactly what I said should be done. I should not be blamed for doing exactly what I said I would do to judge who of Lazer and Nova was most likely to be scum.

- Me asking Lorant for his case on Pure should not be suspicious at all given that he mentioned Pure being scummy in passing, with zero analysis, and Pure was and is my best townread (for logical argumentation and pushing the right person).

My last post’s ‘defense of Pure’ is to be read mostly as an attack on Lorant, whose case was utterly unconvincing and made in a spirit of ‘what could be the worst possible scenario’ – and worst case scenarios are unlikely to actually be true and more likely to lead to a townie lynch, so I’m inclined to think of people who post them as scummy.

- Thinking there is a scum among the lurkers is not the same as advocating a lurker lynch. I even put a vote on Lazermonkey in the same post, so this accusation by Nova is entirely silly, unless of course he means I’m scummy because I would eventually lynch a lurker... I note Nova also thinks there’s a lurker in the scumteam and presumably he wants to lynch him at some point, so why am I being called scummy for this? This is the same behavior as mine.

On April 21 2012 08:00 Lorant wrote:
I don't think nova is cop .. I'm absolutely sure he's not cop. HE'S NOT COP!

On April 16 2012 02:35 Nova_Terra wrote:
I am here for another few hours tonight. am hoping to see a lot more activity within the next day. more activity, more posting analysis, etc. Course, this does not mean that fluff posting is okay. on to more important matters, next we should go after people who dont seem really dumb but are making posts with a strange motivation behind them. purpose behind the posts is a huge teller as to what the players alignment is.
Please feel free to question me while i am here.

On April 19 2012 23:00 Nova_Terra wrote:
leave me a bit of time. My case is being worked on.
[blue-try to focus on some other analysis on some other players to. or check peoples motivations. Why do you think that we need to focus the evidence on 1 person Macheji? never do that. its scummy to try to limit the lynch down to 1 person.

On April 20 2012 01:05 Lorant wrote:

Nova said he likes reading my games so I assume he read Newbie Mini Mafia VI which I have linked above. He could be playing on Kohbee's meta as an excuse for his reckless style. I don't buy it though. Kohbee (the DT) was even more obnoxious, you can't even come close to that. I expect you to claim DT when things look tough, It wouldn't influence my vote on you, though.
*As a sidenote to this.. Therapist, Solohan and myself were in that game so there's a real chance he made this inquiry, making the conscious decision to mime Kohbee. Hells yeah I'd would vote for him

On April 20 2012 21:04 Lorant wrote:
Don't give up, mate. DT will post his investigation and who he's checking tonight (2 minutes before dawn - not 1 second sooner). Tomorrow we'll have a scum lynch .. I guarantee.

On April 21 2012 23:24 TheRavensName wrote:
You know at this point I'm not too sure on my reads. All I know is Soho, therapist(my initial suspicion.) and Maj are still lurking pretty hard it seems. Lorant is a massive troll. Blue and pure I still not too sure about. Nova is about the only one I think is innocent at this point. So uh... lets just throw a vote out there for now so I don't forget and I'll read through later sense I'm on my way out for a few.

##vote Lorant