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Ugh...I'm going to try something different from trying to bang my head against risen's posts and hoping I can make it through them.
At the risk of having another one of my mspaint pictures placed into the TL Mafia quiz...this should be all the reasonable permutations of what's currently going on. I left out Risen fake claiming cop as town since that's just too crazy and makes no sense...If i've missed one please left me know.
![[image loading]](http://i42.tinypic.com/33lmbkp.png)
The first two where risen is townie DT would just be Risen getting too excited about a red check coming back and so he claimed. Blew his load too quickly if you will. In these cases Risen would not be lying but it's also uncertain if acro is mafia or not and acro's flip would tell us very little about Risen's alignment as well since case three and four could be true.
If the third one was the case then I'd think it's likely Acro was framed and then Risen "DT checked" him. In that case, Risen doesn't even have to be a real DT. This places a lot of scrutiny on Risen for the rest of the game but would work as a way to move the discussion away from a mafia member that was under pressure. I did this successfully in TL Mafia XLIV
The fourth one seems unlikely since it's basically sacrificing one mafia member to possibly buy "town cred" for the other. Risen thought he was under scrutiny and so he sacrifices himself to be lynched so that when he flips mafia, acro can get town cred.
Looking at only the permutations, it looks like we should just lynch one and shoot the other to clear up all confusion. There's a 75% chance that we'll kill at least one mafia and 25% we'll lose two townies. But there's also a 25% we can kill two mafia. Once both flip, we should have a clearer picture of what's going on.
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On March 26 2012 03:17 Zealos wrote:
You missed out a couple of possibilities.
1. Risen is standard Mafia
2. Risen is standard townie, trying to get out of a lynch (obviously very unlikely)
Oh doh! I forgot to include the /normal mafia after the DT mafia part in my picture. but yeah, it works either way.
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On March 26 2012 03:46 Risen wrote:
You're an idiot for not claiming miller at this point.
Er, I don't know if you know but miller isn't a role. Thus you can't really "claim" miller since you don't know yourself if you are a miller or not. If you really did "check" acro then you shouldn't be able to tell if he's a miller or if he got framed or if he's straight up mafia. The fact that you didn't even mention the notion of him being framed is interesting...why did you go straight to telling him he's an idiot for "not claiming miller"?
Aside from Acro, if he was unlynchable today, who do you think is scummy?
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On March 26 2012 04:22 Mattchew wrote:
can someone tell me why we would want to take a risk of lynching the guy who claims dt first?
for the most part it sounds like people are saying something along the lines of "i wouldn't do that as DT" or "he must be an idiot to do that as DT" or "This way of playing DT doesn't help town"
2 of these say nothing about alignment. playing stupid or different from how you would play it dont mean scum. and there are a ton of examples of townies playing in a not pro-town manner.
If we flip acro first and he flips scum or miller, we save the life of a townie and save a lynch.
if we flip acro first and he flips town, we get to see what happens to risen at night, and then lynch him.
if we flip risen first and he flips scum, we don't learn anything about acro BUT HURRAY WE LYNCH SCUM
if we flip risen first and hes town DT, we waste a lynch on a confirmable townie, and acro gets lynched the next day
I feel it is a lot safer to lynch acro first
Once again, this doesn't take into account the OP. Are you not reading or are you purposefully being ignorant? If acro flips scum or miller, we DON'T KNOW if risen is town or not. So we would not be saving a townie or a lynch. We would still be in WIFOM.
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Doesn't matter, acro. due to the situation risen has created, the only way out is if both of you get lynched/shot. Anything else leaves too much WIFOM. Unless something crazy comes up, this is the most beneficial play. At the very least we should be getting one scum.
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On March 26 2012 05:03 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 04:59 chaoser wrote:
Doesn't matter, acro. due to the situation risen has created, the only way out is if both of you get lynched/shot. Anything else leaves too much WIFOM. Unless something crazy comes up, this is the most beneficial play. At the very least we should be getting one scum. Precisely why I'm still thinking this is the best play. It's looking like it will be 10-3 going into night 3, and I'm perfectly fine with that. We lose a dt in the process, but I think with other blues still out there we should be fine.
Answer my questions please
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On March 26 2012 06:26 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 06:20 Zealos wrote:On March 24 2012 07:25 Risen wrote:On March 24 2012 07:21 Acrofales wrote:On March 24 2012 07:15 GreYMisT wrote:On March 24 2012 07:10 Acrofales wrote:
Lol. Are we seriously putting our lynch in the hands of either mafia or littlefinger?! This is really retarded. However, I have no idea where to put my vote. My earlier reads were Mattchew, Gumshoe and Zealos. Nobody else seems to want to vote for them, although for the life of me I don't know why not.
I guess I could add Evantrees to my lynch targets, if we're going to policy lynch a hardcore lurker. Another option is to lynch Nicolas. Chaoser said he'll probably be modkilled anyway?
Anything seems better than leaving it so that a mobster switches before the end with some bullshit excuse and we mislynch a townie due to derp. Or WBG jumps and we can't even retaliate by vig shotting him. You "Guess you could add Evantrees to your lynch targets?" What the crap? This entire post is just asking other people to make decisions for you. Don't read shit into it that's not there. I don't want to policy-lynch, I want to lynch Mattchew, but that is clearly not going to happen. Rather than wasting my vote there and having whoever the fuck wants switch at the last second to mislynch a useful townie, I'd rather policy-lynch a lurker or someone who's going to get modkilled. I chose the modkilled. Now stop confusing shit more than it is already and consolidate your own vote somewhere useful, or make a better case against Oberyn, because so far it has been: he's useless. He is a lot LESS useless than Evantrees or Nicolas, so if that's your criteria, your vote's in the wrong place. I'm almost positive Acro is scum, and Mattchew needs to be checked tonight. VOTE ACROFALES On March 23 2012 23:08 Risen wrote:On March 23 2012 21:11 Mattchew wrote:
lol coming from littlefinger i dont suspect it will hold much weight Unfortunately it does not, we don't know his sanity. If someone were to check you tonight and confirm then maybe it would. There we go, so why no Mattchew check? Was hoping for a rolechecker to look at him. Almost positive isn't the same as positive.
This isn't a good excuse even IF rolechecker WAS a role. Why would you take a risk and depend on someone else to do your job? Why not do it yourself? That doesn't even make any sense. That's like saying, I want to check this guy, but oh well, I won't. I'll check this other guy that I already am sure is mafia and hope that 1) someone else checks the guy I want to know about and 2) they then out themselves somehow to give us that information. WTF?
##vote: risen
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Do you think a 1 for 1 trade on day two furthers their agenda?
The thing is, we don't know WHAT their plan/intent/agenda is. We don't KNOW if it's a 1 for 1 trade or not. Let's look at it this way. Here's an example of a planned out mafia move (things like this have occurred before)
Let's say risen is actually PGO mafia and acro is townie. risen has been getting pressured so he claims to be townie dt and he checked acro. we believe him, lynch acro, he flips town. It is now night and risen can say acro got framed. Now what? Do we believe him? or do we not? There's too much WIFOM and we will probably spend all of the night cycle debating it.
Let's say a vigi doesn't believe him and shoots at him. oops, he's PGO so the vigi dies instead. Then we send the next day doing nothing much besides lynching risen. Mafia have just controlled two day cycles and stopped scum hunting and gotten off potentially 6 kills for 1. That's a fucking great plan.
So all we can do is make the best play from OUR perspective. And if you look at risen's reaction to the pressure as the day has drawn on, it's gotten more and more scummy. His post about the how he figured another rolechecker would check mattchew and that's why he checked acro is ridiculous.
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bump...come on guys, only 8 more hours till deadline and this thread is pretty dead. we can still talk about other stuff aside from risen. not everyone has spoken/taken a side either.
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On March 27 2012 00:48 Oberyn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 00:37 chaoser wrote:
bump...come on guys, only 8 more hours till deadline and this thread is pretty dead. we can still talk about other stuff aside from risen. not everyone has spoken/taken a side either. Do you intented to actually provide other stuff to talk about or only pretend to generate discussion? Risen, why didn't you include a name in your initial role claim? Disappearing isn't helping your case. Xatalos, to be clear are you voting for Risen because you think he is scum or because there are 8+ votes on him? What is your excuse for not posting ON? I don't see how a town player can go 72 hours without providing their opinion.
I generated discussion all of yesterday. where the hell were you?
oh right, you were being wishy washy on your thoughts on risen.
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On March 27 2012 01:32 risk.nuke wrote:
Chaoser what do you think of OriginalName. I haven't played with him but I'm sort of expecting more from him?
he's sucking it up. big time. his big post on gumshoe could have been summed up by it's opening sentence of
I just dont get this dude, half the things he says seem to just scream posting for the sake of posting with huge paragraphs filled with nothingness
and then maybe one example for support. Instead it criticizes gumshoe in a "i'm criticizing you but not really" kind way. It feels like a whole lot of empty gas basically. All show, no bite. Which sums the rest of his posting as well. In particular is this post:
On March 23 2012 10:39 OriginalName wrote:
I'm voting SLJ
For the following reasons I believe them to be scum.
-There's two of them and they are both lurking hardcore there is no excuse for this behaviour
-Not contributing any opinions before flaunting vet status and starting questionable bandwagon that everyone is jumping on.
-Pushing agenda through above method
-Doing nothing to contribute to atmosphere and using horrid paragraph/other crappie that neither usually ignore and makes it seem that they really don't care
-Throwing votes down without reason
The cases on layabout are fairly meh nothing of his outright rises suspicion other then his questionable alt targets.
Alderan is increadably trashy as well with that clear bandwagon jump how do people get away with this.
#Vote SLJ
which is funny because ON fits most of those criteria as well, especially with the vote finally ending on evantree.
He's on my shortlist for mafia.
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On March 27 2012 01:45 Oberyn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 01:27 chaoser wrote:On March 27 2012 00:48 Oberyn wrote:On March 27 2012 00:37 chaoser wrote:
bump...come on guys, only 8 more hours till deadline and this thread is pretty dead. we can still talk about other stuff aside from risen. not everyone has spoken/taken a side either. Do you intented to actually provide other stuff to talk about or only pretend to generate discussion? Risen, why didn't you include a name in your initial role claim? Disappearing isn't helping your case. Xatalos, to be clear are you voting for Risen because you think he is scum or because there are 8+ votes on him? What is your excuse for not posting ON? I don't see how a town player can go 72 hours without providing their opinion. I generated discussion all of yesterday. where the hell were you? oh right, you were being wishy washy on your thoughts on risen. I'd hardly call your little chart of possibilities much of a contribution. The only other thing you've provided is misrepresenting a 1:1 trade for a 6:1 trade. The night hits are going to resolve whether we lynch a scum player or not. You come up with this conspiracy PGO theory, but that honestly can't be the explanation you think is most likely. worst case scenario, a mafia risen gets lynched day two best case scenario, mafia gets a single mislynch and limits discussion and a mafia risen gets lynched day three I don't understand how you call this a great plan.
limiting discussion in the opening days is huge. because not only is discussion limited but it also allows mafia two free nights to kill off the best players. your "best case scenario" is a lot worse for us than you're making it out to be.
And I didn't say that explanation was the most likely; I stated it because you tried to imply it was "just" a 1:1 trade when we have no knowledge that leads us to successfully come to this conclusion since WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE MAFIA ARE THINKING!
Just look at LoTR with the neutral balrog claim that came out of nowhere and then kita's tracker claim on me. It took town almost two extra days to finally decide to lynch iGrok and all the way till the end of the game to decide kita was mafia cause they thought "mafia wouldn't do that".
If you had to lynch three people right now, who would they be? Out of acro and risen, who would you lynch?
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On March 27 2012 01:58 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2012 01:54 chaoser wrote:
If you had to lynch three people right now, who would they be? Out of acro and risen, who would you lynch? Greymist, Lyter and maybe Gumshoe.
why only maybe gumshoe? also, you're just going to ignore risen/acro? leave that for another day?
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On March 27 2012 07:15 evantrees wrote:
##vote: acrofales
On March 27 2012 07:20 Lyter wrote:
##vote: Risen
What's with the silent voting guys? Not even posting in thread?
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On March 28 2012 09:29 Alderan wrote:
Ok, there's probably a lot to work with here and I'll start with what immediately comes to mind.
Day 2's kills were "hacked to pieces".
We're going to have to assume for the time being that these are the two mafia kill flavors.
Tonight we have a "run through" and a "hacked to pieces" which would suggest that one was a vig kill and one was a mafia kill, with some type of vet hit or medic save. What's bothering me is the fact that MrZentor's flavor was "hacked to pieces" as well.
I guess it's not absurd to have a vig with the same flavor as scum, but I just didn't expect it. Anyone have any experience with a game where scum had a choice as to which kill flavor they used, or anything like that?
Um...what? What are you talking about?
On March 28 2012 08:35 Alderan wrote:
Just was gonna see if you were interested in maybe posting that case?
On March 28 2012 08:43 MrZentor wrote:
I don't need a case with my role.
On March 28 2012 08:50 MrZentor wrote:
As soon as we're done with this Acrofales/Risen thing, you're dead.
It's pretty clear that YOU were the target MrZentor was going to shoot. And he breadcrumbed that pretty early.
##vote: acrofalas
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On March 28 2012 21:56 Mattchew wrote:
Hi, I am the jailer, (Lysa Arryn). I jailed SLJ night 1 (he was hit twice) and I jailed alderan night 2.
Any questions?
So are you saying there's 4 KP flying around day 1 (SLJ said he was viging evantree, two KP landed on SLJ and one landed on DoYouHas) and only 3 KP was flying around yesterday (MrZentor breadcrumbed he was shoot alderan, MrZentor got shot, Oberyn got shot)?
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On March 28 2012 22:07 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 22:06 chaoser wrote:On March 28 2012 21:56 Mattchew wrote:
Hi, I am the jailer, (Lysa Arryn). I jailed SLJ night 1 (he was hit twice) and I jailed alderan night 2.
Any questions? So are you saying there's 4 KP flying around day 1 (SLJ said he was viging evantree, two KP landed on SLJ and one landed on DoYouHas) and only 3 KP was flying around yesterday (MrZentor breadcrumbed he was shoot alderan, MrZentor got shot, Oberyn got shot)? I roleblocked SLJ, so thats why he didn't shoot, and thats why i said scum has 1 or 2 vigs. cause I knew there was atleast 3 KP used on night 1
Oh right, you would have roleblocked him.
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On March 28 2012 22:14 Acrofales wrote:
I don't think KP matter at all. He visited MrZentor last night, who was found hacked to bits today. If his bullshit about SLJ is even a little bit true, he roleblocked SLJ, preventing the Evantrees hit and shot him.
Lol, shut up acro. you're already settled for the day. Your PM post pretty much means you're going either going to be modkilled because that's your actual role PM you just posted or you won't be modkilled because you're lying and the technicality of "it's not a real PM you got from Curu" comes into play. And that second one means you're mafia. So really, it's win-win for town that you posted it lol. Though not so much win-win for you since if it's the first one, you're going to probably end up on the ban list. Now we just wait for Curu.
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On March 28 2012 22:17 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2012 22:14 Acrofales wrote:
I don't think KP matter at all. He visited MrZentor last night, who was found hacked to bits today. If his bullshit about SLJ is even a little bit true, he roleblocked SLJ, preventing the Evantrees hit and shot him. if you are telling the truth about what you received this is a mod-mistake. Originally I was on Mr. Zentor until about 2-3 hours before the night actions occured because of his obvious breadcrumb of his blue rule with the 0101010101 shit. I switched to alderan then because he became more town in my mind and started posting actual information. I was in class from 23:00 GMT (+00:00) to 02:00 GMT (+00:00) when mr zentor started blue claiming and it was too late to switch back to him
you need to stop talking dude
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EPT
