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GG FirmTofu
I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us.
One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts:
On March 12 2012 10:22 koritora wrote:
However, to lynch a lurker is not a bad thing. It's not helping anyone in the town. As for people against lynching on the Day 1, that's where my suspicion lies.
Then he turns around and:
On March 13 2012 09:37 koritora wrote:
Well besides the fact FirmTofu has only made talk about lynching a lurker, there isn't really much else to go on. Same case can be made for InfernoOkami7. But since either hasn't spoken up lately, I can only assume they are lurking and that puts my vote up in the air for these two unless they come and contribute something meaningful. But as of the moment, I can't decide between the two and therefore going with a no lynch.
##Vote: No Lynch
First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look.
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Yeah, I didn't notice the discrepancy until I was looking at everyone's votes after the fact. Before Day 1 ended, I was mainly just checking for new posts every hour or so, especially something from FirmTofu, but I wasn't looking through filters for stuff like that. Maybe if I had, I would've seen it ahead of time.
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On March 14 2012 22:32 Nova_Terra wrote:
Meanwhile, I would also like to draw a bit of attention to Janaan.
As i was looking through his filter, i often saw a trend. he would post something questioning somebody else, to get their reads on everything, and then not post much about his thoughts. Also, as a way of avoiding posting much about his own thoughts, he would say that nothing seems to have changed, or something of the sort.
Janaan, I would love it if you could make a post explaining your reads on people so far. too much happens by way of your posts and not enough happens that questions your posts.
Note that this is not an FOS.
At the moment, there's been so much limited activity, I'm finding it hard to get decent reads off.
I'm still waiting for an answer from Koritora, but at the moment, he's my best scum read for the reasons that I presented earlier.
Phagga is looking pretty townie to me, his posts make a lot of sense to me and seem to have the right intentions behind them.
Nova_Terra, I don't really know what to think about you, to be honest. It seems like you're trying to be active and helpful, but things like your defense of your actions on day 1 being very defensive and emotionally charged don't quite sit right with me. Neutral for the moment.
Seviro actually looks a bit scummy to me, not enough to come out with any sort of case on him, but I'm keeping close watch on him. Bits like
On March 13 2012 14:57 Seviro wrote:
I guess we'll have to wait for the mafia kill to get some more information depending on who they kill.
after Day 1 ended, implying that we should simply wait until after Night 1 is over before doing anything, wasting 24 hours, doesn't look good to me. Then his accusation of Nova_Terra was full of WIFOM argument, and possibly confirmation bias.
Mementoss has a townie feel to me, he's been a fairly active poster so far, and seems to be speaking his mind on what's going on.
The other players, I don't have nearly enough posts from them to make any kind of read. The trouble is that it's quite possible for all the mafia to be in this category, but we can't know for sure until they decide to start posting.
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On March 15 2012 06:52 phagga wrote:
I hope others will follow with voting for their suspects, so we might be able to come to an agreement on who to lynch soon.
I agree that we need to start getting a good idea of how people are leaning for their vote, and I totally agree with you on not tolerating lurking. I will be around to change my vote long before the actual deadline, so this is a preliminary vote. Because of my previous suspicions:
##Vote: Koritora
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On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote:Considering this is a newbie game, wouldn't mafia likely to be outspoken and "contributing"? With something to prove? "Hey don't suspect me im contributing" type of deal. I find it hard to believe that a scum would just not post for this long now - certainly with all this pressure; and especially when there are three of them, and are most likely (don't see how they wouldn't be) communicating with each other by some other means to coordinate. 1 To that notion, the play by Janaan is concerning to me. I made a point in an eariler post about the focus he / she put on Kori's vote after the fact, which was kinda late. Now he / she counters almost every point Seviro makes in his / her latest post - seemingly to dismiss or discredit the analysis. 2.Show nested quote +On March 15 2012 03:26 Janaan wrote:On March 14 2012 22:32 Nova_Terra wrote:
Meanwhile, I would also like to draw a bit of attention to Janaan.
As i was looking through his filter, i often saw a trend. he would post something questioning somebody else, to get their reads on everything, and then not post much about his thoughts. Also, as a way of avoiding posting much about his own thoughts, he would say that nothing seems to have changed, or something of the sort.
Janaan, I would love it if you could make a post explaining your reads on people so far. too much happens by way of your posts and not enough happens that questions your posts.
Note that this is not an FOS. At the moment, there's been so much limited activity, I'm finding it hard to get decent reads off. I'm still waiting for an answer from Koritora, but at the moment, he's my best scum read for the reasons that I presented earlier. Phagga is looking pretty townie to me, his posts make a lot of sense to me and seem to have the right intentions behind them. Nova_Terra, I don't really know what to think about you, to be honest. It seems like you're trying to be active and helpful, but things like your defense of your actions on day 1 being very defensive and emotionally charged don't quite sit right with me. Neutral for the moment. Seviro actually looks a bit scummy to me, not enough to come out with any sort of case on him, but I'm keeping close watch on him. Moving on, there is a fishy link between Janaan, Phagga, and Nova_Terra. Nova's behavior has already been discussed so not going to bring that up here, but Phagga has not really has yet to been focused. He /she has yet to really offer any analysis except one post a few hours after the day 2 post, in which he / she focuses only on the people who voted for FirmTofu, and doing so dismisses Janaan rather easily as town. While on the issue of voting, he constantly wants to talk about the people who are lurking, but there is realy nothing to talk about considering that they are lurking.. Seems scummy to me to keep the town going in circles and wasting hours of actual analysis. Of course the lurkers could be mafia, but really nothing new here. Janaan also wants to lynch the lurkers, and easily agrees with Phagga. My money is on Janaan right now unless something else comes up. He is saying just enough to get by, without saying anything really at all. ##Vote: Janaan
1. Just a quick note, yeah it's certainly possible that the mafia are not lurking. But it's also possible that they are. The fact is, if we never put any pressure on the lurkers by voting for them, if it IS scum just trying to hide, then they have no reason to post more than the bare minimum. With so many players lurking/not posting right now, we have to find some way to get them involved in the game.
2. I already mentioned why I didn't bring up Koritora, so refer back to that post. As far as countering all of Seviro's arguments in one fell swoop by bringing up WIFOM and Confirmation Bias, I was merely pointing out the problems that I had with his posting. Like I said, it's not enough to bring forward as a case, but logic that is filled with bad arguments is a way for scum to make a case without it being valid. It does not automatically mean the conclusions he came up with are bad, but his thought process was.
As far as a connection with myself, Phagga, and Nova_Terra, myself and Phagga are definitely both focusing in on lurking players for now, so I guess that's a "connection". I'm doing so because of point 1. I don't know why Phagga is, you'll have to ask him.
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Glad to see some more activity today!
The cases against Gossemer seem pretty good after reading them over. I'd like for him to have a chance to respond to them before the vote deadline, hopefully he'll show up.
At the moment, I want to stick with my original read on Koritora, but there's enough evidence that I would be willing to switch to Gossemer if needed. I think it's possible that Nova_Terra is right about the whole thing, but I'm not sure.
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I find it interesting how Eleanthas just now came into the thread and, even with accusations and people voting against him, he still just posted enough to get his vote out for the day and left immediately. No defense, no nothing. It makes him look scummier to me. Since it doesn't look like a Koritora lynch will happen today, Eleanthas looks just as scummy right now, and as a general rule I dislike no lynches when there's a decent vote candidate:
##Unvote: Koritora
##Vote: Eleanthas
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On March 16 2012 16:03 Gossemerr wrote:
How in the world could understanding how the mafia are thinking be bad for us town? If we can accurately figure out why the mafia killed whom they did we can link it back to the individuals involved. Its a integral part of the analysis. If we just ignored all of the night phases and focused only on the outcomes of lynches that would be terrible. In fact that would be what the scum would want from us - to effectively lose half of the game's information. To not worry about their motives and to fight about the mis-lynches. I agree that the staight up kills can be misleading, but thats where the ANALYSIS comes in. Anyways, I still think there needs to be more discussion on Janaan, Phagga, and Nova - especially Phagga and Janaan.
Also, I guess my suspicion that Ele wasn't any more scummy than others was right..
This part of Gossemerr's last post concerns me a bit. I know Phagga already mentioned some of what I'm about to say, but I think it's worth saying again, in addition to some other comments I have.
I don't like how he readily admits that he is not only using WIFOM logic regarding night kills, he is using it to make his cases. I can forgive a slight usage of WIFOM if it is only there to supplement the rest of the argument, but Gossemerr isn't doing that. Instead, he's taking the night kill, assuming that he can "Accurately figure out why the mafia killed whom they did" and going from there with confirmation bias. The problem is that these assumptions may be incorrect. No amount of analysis will give you a 100% unquestionably right answer when you're dealing with WIFOM, and if you're incorrect, you have no way of knowing until a mislynch has been made.
The other part that I have a problem with, is that he obviously thinks that myself, Phagga, and Nova_Terra are scummy, but I have yet to see why. He wants there to be more discussion surrounding the three of us, but then seems to be relying on others to "do his dirty work". Instead of just coming out and explaining exactly why he still finds us scummy, he makes general comments and expect the rest of us to follow up on them. I'd say that this is trying to put suspicion on the three of us, without actually bringing anything new to the table.
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EBWOP: At the minute, I don't have any comments on the case on Nova_Terra or his defense, but it is interesting. If Velinath has more to say later about Nova's defense, I may have something to say about that.
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On March 18 2012 03:27 Gossemerr wrote:
@ Janaan:
I didn't say to only use WIFOM. Let me clear this up. After a night kill we can look back through the filters and enumerate possible reasons that said person was murdered. I don't see how trying to understand the motives of the scum, coupled with post-based arguements is bad idea. 1.
To your other point, how exactly am I getting people to do my dirty work? I didn't really ask any questions. I made an argument, which I thought was logical, and it was not well received. 2.
Also, pretty much all of your current in game analysis has been to call people out for WIFOM seemingly just to discredit them, or as said by others, to get other people to answer your questions. 3.
SO, Janaan will you please tell us what your TOP TWO scum suspects are at the current moment? Thanks
Also at the Vel vs. Nova case:
I agree with basically all of Vels points; however, I kinda of feel like Nova is just playing badly. He just seems emotional and may not be thinking clearly all the time. He was very wrong with the Ele thing, but so were others. His case was pretty weak too, so its not like he was able to convice everyone to vote for Ele when we should not have been. I am no hypocrite here, I voted for Ele, but mainly because he was lurker soooo hard, and didn't even try to defend himself.
1. Ok, maybe I misunderstood what you were saying. I still don't like using WIFOM to create cases, but if that's not what you're trying to do, then good.
2. My point was that you barely mentioned me in the post I quoted, then tacked on to the end that you found me suspicious and then left, saying people should pay more attention to me, which you yourself have not done. That's all.
3. I'm not trying to "discredit" people, I just don't want to take the risk of a lynch based off of bad logic. So I point it out when I see it. I don't know why you have such a big problem with that.
My top two scum suspects:
I definitely think that it's possible that Nova is scum. It's also possible that he's just playing bad, but sometimes, if a player looks like a scum, and smells like a scum, he just might be a scum.
I still think that Koritora looked scummy. If a replacement comes in, I'll be paying very close attention to him.
The trouble is, now that we're so close to LYLO, we really can't afford to make a mistake here. Especially with Koritora, my read isn't strong enough to justify lynching him right now.
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I said I had a scum read on Nova before, so I'm sticking with that.
##Vote: Nova_Terra
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On March 19 2012 12:28 Gossemerr wrote:
Dang you Janaan. If only I could have been more persuasive. Haha, good game guys.
Also Nova, I hope you don't hate me :/
Yeah, man, you had me pinned as scum. You just need to be more confident in your reads next time, and if you really think someone is scummy, push them HARD! I never really felt much pressure, because the only case you posted on me until after it was too late was the one showing connections with Nova and Phagga. Ask questions of your target, use FoS, and vote early. You tried asking me pretty open ended questions, but even when I gave pretty bad answers, I wasn't really called out on it. Part of that was 2 town players being totally inactive, though.
Another suggestion, you can take it or leave it, when you did your first case about me, Nova, and Phagga, after that you never really could muster any real clout, partly because, I think, you had already alienated 2 townies. Maybe next time try focusing on your strongest scum read (which would have been me) and make a case for them first, instead of trying to connect all the dots all at once. There may be 3 scum out there, but you still need to lynch them one at a time!
EDIT (by way of edit button  )
I really need work on my scum play. If the town wasn't so inactive overall, I probably would've been spotted from a mile away as scum. But, practice makes perfect I suppose. I think I'm gonna forgo my 4th newbie game, and head out into the open water of general TL mafia. Probably sign up for another game pretty soon.
Thanks GMarshal and Probulous for hosting!
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EPT
