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On February 20 2012 12:23 trackd00r wrote:I think it's time I have to catch the thread again. Personally, I'm not convinced with MidnightGladius case. I don't agree with the reasoning that jaj and ET gave. I'm not going to get into details about that, since we need to focus in other targets that don't create chaos. Alderan is lurking quite heavily now. And I need to say it. He has been one of the least contributors in this game so far. I have the feeling that he is just watching the thread, and watching us bash each other. + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 02:01 Alderan wrote:Hi guys, excited to get started. Ok so here are just my thoughts as I read through the thread (going to be pretty peacemeal as I catch up): As for my experience, most recently I played in SNMMIV as scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232826And before that I played a Vanilla towny in http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500. I've also read a couple games all the way through I see that next we entered the obligatory Lurker Lynch policy discussion so I will throw in my $.02. We need to approach this in a way where lurkers know they will get lynched if they do not post. Our philosophy should be that someone who is blatantly lurking WILL get lynched unless of these 2 situations happens. 1. Adequate involvement from everyone. I have seen town get so focused on lynching a lurker that when that person becomes active the bandwagon has already started rolling so fast downhill that there's no stopping it. That person ends up being town more often than not. 2. There is an obvious scum slip or we can identify someone almost assuredly as scum. Let's make sure we don't hit a blue in our insistence on lynching someone day 1, if the obvious choice is not there, it's not there. That will be decided much closer to the end of the voting period though. Stay diligent. This poll is comical. I still fail to see the reasoning behind it. While discussion is good, let's not go round and round about that, almost no substantive value to be had. More worrisome than the poll is how quick to the gun ET was. Without formally FoSing, in my opinion you have already semi-accused DoYouHaas, Sloosh, and gumshoe. Do you stand any of these at all? If so which is the most scummy? I don't like it, and by it I mean blasting away with the accuse cannon nonstop. We need to hear from Mannerkiss again definitely. Gumshoe you're absolutely correct about Midnight Gladius's ratio post. What is the easiest way to "contribute" without actually contributing anything thats not common knowledge? Speculate about the setup/discuss the ratios and KP, and inactive lists. Those things are not inherently scummy, but they must be followed up with additional contributions. This first reminded me a lot of Zarepath's first post in NMM3, where he turned to be scum. Starts off with a fluffy hypothetical talk about what happens if X situation occurs. Then it goes on and makes the obvious remarks: The poll, ET vs sloosh and calling out manner kiss. Notice how he is just checking the thread. Then his next 2 posts are about gumshoe. Nothing really worthy to add to the discussion. Then it goes this case against Dimmu. It's ok, a lurker, everyone can be suspicious about (even I did). But that's not the point. I would've expected to vote him right away to put some pressure. Instead he just waited to other chaos to set in to cast his vote, when everyone was having different suspicions in other people. He addresses other players in a very shallow way. His opinions to ET and gum were very light IMO. If you think that just writing a case in the easiest case and posting everyone 5-6 hours is going to work, you are wrong. What do you think about the MidnightGladius case? Or DoYouHas'? FOS: Alderan
Trakdoor whats your opinion on janaan?
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Sloosh, please consider if DYH is town, well mislynch again, than probally lose someone like Track, and the mafia will probably lynch you tomorrow for causing DYH's death, I wanted to cut off the hydras heads before we went for the heart, like Midnight suggested,maybe lynch Alderaan instead and then lynch DYH if alderaan comes up red, but this is what we have and I'm inclined to go with it. A no lynch Is NOT an option
##vote: DoYouHas
Midnight are you willing to vote for DYH? If not why do you think Alderaans case is stronger?
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Alright I'm going to sleep, but before I leave I wanna let DYH know what it'll take for me to unvote him.
1: An AMAZING case on someone else. (Be wary though that he might sell out a team mate if he is mafia.)
2: him focusing more on number one instead of defending himself.
3: someone else who is an active poster and a big contributor to town providing a very solid case for him.
Night night.
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On February 20 2012 21:52 zelblade wrote:Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads. No reasoning. No reasoning. Next to no reasoning. You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum.
Zell I want you to think back for a moment, remember the start of the game? DYH accused manner and manner had that wonky response for which DYH said he was mafia, this happened pretty early in the game so I am inclined to believe that they are not both mafia. Unless you are suggesting that DYH convinced one of his teamates to sacrifice himself that early on(which isnt outside MY scope of possibility but most people tend to be a bit less imaginative then me)
Your accusation against mittch is valid if DYH flips green. in which case mittch looks just awful. So save your accusation for then, right now it feels like your trying to crumb suspicion on mittch not for this vote, but the next. As if you've seen the hit your team is about to take and feel the need to ensure that a mislynch happens tomorrow on one of the most obvious suspects.
That said I am paranoid at the moment, so I'll drop my vague suspicion of you.
Right now we are discussing DYH, no one has offered a defence for him despite the fact that if someone tried hard enough they could pull a case together because of how seemingly active he's been. So I think scum are now trying to distance themselves from him.
Heres whats I think is useful to hear right now in my opinion.
A defence of DYH before the psuedo deadline and suggestions for where to go if DYH flips green or red.
me on if DYH flips greed: If DYH flips green we need to start taking safe bets, so a Mitch lynch would be good in that scenario.
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DYH do you have any other cases?
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On February 21 2012 00:19 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 23:39 gumshoe wrote:On February 20 2012 21:52 zelblade wrote:Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads. steveling reads as town to me No reasoning. ##vote: Doyouhas No reasoning. he(MG) could just have wrong reads... which is what i believe is the case Next to no reasoning. You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum. Zell I want you to think back for a moment, remember the start of the game? DYH accused manner and manner had that wonky response for which DYH said he was mafia, this happened pretty early in the game so I am inclined to believe that they are not both mafia. Unless you are suggesting that DYH convinced one of his teamates to sacrifice himself that early on(which isnt outside MY scope of possibility but most people tend to be a bit less imaginative then me) Your accusation against mittch is valid if DYH flips green. in which case mittch looks just awful. So save your accusation for then, right now it feels like your trying to crumb suspicion on mittch not for this vote, but the next. As if you've seen the hit your team is about to take and feel the need to ensure that a mislynch happens tomorrow on one of the most obvious suspects. That said I am paranoid at the moment, so I'll drop my vague suspicion of you. Right now we are discussing DYH, no one has offered a defence for him despite the fact that if someone tried hard enough they could pull a case together because of how seemingly active he's been. So I think scum are now trying to distance themselves from him. Heres whats I think is useful to hear right now in my opinion. A defence of DYH before the psuedo deadline and suggestions for where to go if DYH flips green or red. me on if DYH flips greed: If DYH flips green we need to start taking safe bets, so a Mitch lynch would be good in that scenario. It is entirely possible that both of them are scum. Remember, mafia, especially at the start of the game, arent gonna buddy each other up - it would be obvious that something was going on. It is entirely possible for DYH to throw out some pressure onto manner easily. What i actually find suspisious now that you mention it is this: at that time when DYH decided to throw out his pressure on manner, why him? There were so many others that hadnt posted at all yet, yet out of all of them he chose to call out mannerkiss. I'll just quote ur day 1 list here. + Show Spoiler +Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't.
blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one)
Alderan - Absent no alibi
Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) :
Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion
manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion
steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious.
track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect
midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so ) no reason to suspect as of yet
Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius
Janaan- is absent no alibi
tk hawakins- is absent no aibi
dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi
zell - is absent no alibi
jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. As you can see, so many of us (including me), were not active yet. Why did he choose to pressure mannerkiss out of all of them? I find this really wierd and it seems that DoYouHas could be distancing himself from manner. So no, I dont believe that my accusation is valid only if DYH flips green (rather unlikely). I also dont see how DYH flipping green would incriminate mattchew though. Could you point it out to me? And yes, I agree that the lack of defense for DYH is really wierd. This could obviously mean that we are: 1) Wrong 2) Its a bus! 3) Scum do not have much of a thread presence/are not being influential, and thus are not willing to take the risk to go ahead with a solid defence of DYH, and are thus, as you said, distancing themselves from him. Im currently sold on (3) personally. I dont believe that mafia would be actively bussing him at this point in time just for some town cred. Town cred is fickle and I would be pretty glad if they were doing so as they would be giving us a pretty dangerous scum on a silver platter.
To be honest I never intended to vote for matt even if DYH flipped green, look at these posts
+ Show Spoiler +
Hey guys... I have read a little but am about to go to Atlantic City for the night. I read through the top 3's filters (ET Dimmukok and Midnight) and I think that Midnight should be the lynch today.
No reasoning whatsoever to vote for Mg -_- just arbitraliy accuses him
+ Show Spoiler +Scumslip.
You hang tomorrow
Makes a vicious attack without evidence that was most likely meant to pressure me, which is a move I expect early in the game.
+ Show Spoiler +i changed my mind. midnight and gum are both bad lynches. gumshoe after more reading is trying really hard and is pro-town. midnight i am skeptical of but is not as good a lynch as doyouhas.
Completley pulls an opinion 180 which is always suspicious on day 2
+ Show Spoiler +thank you for both proving my previous post about the 2 of you true. lets go get the real scum
it looks like scum is bussing dyh or we are really far off base.
How can he not possibly not expect these two comments to draw suspicion to him if DYH flips green?
Matt strikes me as neither an overly flashy player nor a very lurky one, to me he sounds like someone whose posting as if the game has just begun and for him thats exactly the case. He's still flexible and a bit more free than us to say what he wants and change his opinions because he hasn't really had any fights or developed any enemies, Manner has, not him.
I wanted to hear more out of you about Matt so I pushed you a little, and your reasoning is solid so I retract my suspicion.
In response to what you said about DYH distancing himself from manner, you missed something crucial. It wasnt mutual
Manner
+ Show Spoiler +Doyouhas pretty strong townie feeling to me.
earlier I considered why DYH called out Manner, I went through all this back when I made my long accusation of DYH and a few other people, but dropped my suspicions on manner because I couldn't see why he would support DYH despite DYH's accusation... it would've been ideal for mafia if Manner hated DYH right back which creates more conflict.
Finally I will refer to what others have pointed out, townies are more likely to lose interest and drop out of games. Mafia tend to be a bit more invested, but that last part is complete wifome so disregard it if you please.
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DYH, you stand to be lynched very soon, if you really are town make some last contributions to help us out, you said you were suspicious of Hawk? Can you give us that case please before your lynched?
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On February 21 2012 02:40 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 02:11 gumshoe wrote:
DYH, you stand to be lynched very soon, if you really are town make some last contributions to help us out, you said you were suspicious of Hawk? Can you give us that case please before your lynched? Right now I am pretty convinced that you all are going to lynch me regardless of what I say, so I'm just going to try and get all my analysis out there by the end of the day. You are holding to another mislynch, and I can't argue you off it. I've tried and tried, and I'm tired of trying. So instead I'm going to pour my brain out into the thread so you will have as much DoYouHas analysis to look back at as possible.
Thats what I want out of you, would you mind starting with hawk?
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On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor?
Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died.
Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you.
Whats your read on Hawk btw?
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On February 21 2012 06:57 DoYouHas wrote:My thoughts on TKHawkins and JanaanTKHawkins+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. He echoes Midnight's sentiments and tells us about his lack of voting in the poll, which for the life of me I can't see a reason for explaining this. underlined- Then he proposes a policy of not going after lurkers early, which as I have previously mentioned, is convenient because he is one. But even beyond that, he provides some WIFOM reasoning as to why we should not go after lurkers which, as a number of you have pointed out, the scum could easily just read and act differently if we were to ever adopt this reasoning. He lurks for about 26hrs, then provides this weak analysis of Janaan + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:Janaan Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 17:11 Janaan wrote:
3. Something I'm really concerned about right now is that there seems to be a few players who have posted since the game started, but only in the most fluffy of ways. Specifically, jaj22, DimmuKlok, trackd00r, MannerKiss, and to a lesser extent, Steveling and TKHawkins. I understand if they didn't have the time to do more than just check in at the start of the game, but still, for so many people to just put out one or two fairly useless posts is overall not a good pro-town atmosphere. We HAVE to find some way to get people involved and posting.
One player that concerns me right now is MannerKiss. First he gets called out to provide some decent content by DoYouHas, then he posts a single sentence acknowledging DoYouHas's post, but doesn't post any content. I'm getting slightly scummy vibes from his play right now. It's worth looking into as we go forward.
1. In that quote he basically accuses almost everybody who had posted in the thread at the time of being lurkers or scummy. Its not really helpful to spray such accusations without backing it up. He complains about "fluff" posts but does not include Gumshoe in his list of people who are posting fluffy. 2. He then kinda jumps onto a DimmuKlok bandwagon based entirely on Alderan's post. 3. He says all the right things but isn't really contributing. @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? That list accused exactly who it said it would be accusing, the people who only had a couple of posts in the game so far and had yet to really get past the fluffy policy talk at the start of the game. It doesn't make sense that gumshoe would be on that list, he had posted frequently, and even if those posts were lacking merit, he was a center of conflict in the thread. 2. He is trying to frame Janaan as someone who was letting Alderan doing his thinking for him. But that is clearly not the case if you read Janaan's posts relating to Dimmuklok. 3. I also think he is saying the right things, and I think it is because he is Town. + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:Gumshoe does not follow direction well though. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 06:33 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 06:28 trackd00r wrote:On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote:
Ok, just woke up and caught on the action.
So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1.
The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone.
Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on.
But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation.
So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town.
What do you guys think?
I'm sorry Steveling, but I definitely think that no-lynch is no no. We are not close to night. We've only had played for 21 hours and that's less than half of the time. We still have plenty of time to build a strong case on anyone. There have been several stances where we could gather information and I know that we can use it to push out a lynch. If it turns out mafia, great. If not, we will see the bandwagons and those who are dodging the cases to make a good and hopefully successful lynch in the second day. Well, you have posted much more content than you did it on your previous post, but I insist, I disagree with a no-lynch. Gumshoe, sometimes I think that you are going more pro-town, but in some other instances I just don't understand your intentions. Even you manage to contradict your self: On February 17 2012 13:36 gumshoe wrote:Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't. blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one) Alderan - Absent no alibi Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) : Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious.track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so )  no reason to suspect as of yet Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius Janaan- is absent no alibi tk hawakins- is absent no aibi dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi zell - is absent no alibi jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. On February 18 2012 05:09 gumshoe wrote:
Now for stance number two! This ones about the lovely poll!
Unlike the topic of lynching lurkers, nearly everyone( with the exception of manner kiss and a few other lurkers) has stated an opinion on this matter, heres the breakdown of where everyone stands. Fore warning I'm a lot less objective here so take my opinions as you will.
Thinks I'm the nubbiest of noobs:
Blae(not much to say, just seems like he wants to move on from the poll which isn't really what a mafia would want)
Janan (just disregarded my poll and moved on, not very suspicious behaviour)
Steveling( hasn't commented to much, posted rather jokingly in response to my poll... Almost as if he wasn't worried about the prospect of me being mafia... Steve needs to post more.)
Midnight Gladius (didn't think I was mafia, not a suprise gladius dosent seem to take many risks)
TKHawkins( hasn't said much)
With this, I really want to make you think more carefully about you post. You say that Steveling has contributed to the discussion, when he actually didn't really at that point (he even loled at your poll) and then you suddenly realize deeper into the game that he hasn't commented much? I'm letting of the suspicion of you but please, please, think carefully every post you make. Instead of replaying to every post, try to start a case or at least draw your lynch candidates in a clear way. I swear that I can't even understand some of your posts, and not only to me, but all the town right here. For the moment, i'm lifting my suspicions about you and Steve I need to keep checking the filters and try to build up a strong case. There have been a lot of situations going on here and I'm starting to lose focus >_<. Expect more posting from me, I will. Understood officer wont happen again; I do not think he'd actually listen to scum telling him not to post like that. After all, people have already told him not to post like that here and he ignores everybody. He's definitely giving noob vibes. But a noob could be town or a noob could be mafia. The moderators assigning roles randomly don't care who gets what role. The idea of "he's acting too noob so he must be town because mafia would stop him" is a flimsy argument because he could just be a noob. I don't see how we are supposed to decide his innocence or guilty solely based on that.@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Hawk presents a similar reasoning to Midnight's regarding gumshoe then comes that underlined section. That first sentence is valueless. Then we get to his summary of the reasons that gumshoe could be town. Did anyone expect Hawk to decide gum's innocence or guilt based just on that? I certainly didn't, that wasn't my case. Now we get to his list of reads post, as I mentioned previously it is difficult to draw meaningful analysis out of a post like this, but I do have 2 thoughts. + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 01:19 gumshoe wrote:
As of now i really dont get any bad vibes from him,but i didnt really expect to suspect anyone this early in the game, that said gladus first posts explain the odds distribution in the game in a refined but obvius way, his other post was ano obvius but not hostile critique of my poll( the poll was also meant to garner hostile potentialy opotunity seeking mafia responses but his response was just polite and reasonay dismissive) he has not provided ano opinion on lynching lurlers FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Blae Quality post with a new argument against Ech for being too aggressive. Gets ticked at lurkers. Sees trackd00r and Janaan as pro-town. Blae feels very pro town to me. Would love to see more, but with the Europe timezone difference I think I will end up playing phone tag with him on the weekdays. Alderan Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes a case against DimmuKlok, Neutral until I can see more. Ech Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. DoYouHas Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious. MannerKiss There is a difference between lurking by not posting every 4 hours and lurking by actively reading the thread and then just not posting on it. Suspicious because is following the thread and not posting. Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Midnight I can't get a solid read on him. Slo0sh Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. Janaan Had a good explanation for a bad early post I pointed out. Seems to be trying to get other people's reads, so looks pro-town. DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much. jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. Every single one of us has earned a town/suspicious/null read from TKHawkins at this point, EXCEPT Midnight. He has since made the point that he is not the only person who had a hard time reading Midnight, which is true, I was one of them. However, I find it strange for 2 reasons. The first is that he managed to pull together a read on every other person, strange to me since I was having trouble with multiple persons. The second is that TKHawkins clearly had put a fair bit of thought into gumshoe, but didn't have an opinion on Midnight, who was highly involved with gum. Even I had at least looked at Midnight long enough to identify a few suspicious things in his play while I was preoccupied with slOosh. This is supposition, but I think there is a chance that TKHawkins tried to buddy trackd00r early. + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? Deferential tone. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Agreement. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
Strong pro-town read. Hawk's next 3 actions are to illicit blae's opinion on Midnight, defend Midnight by questioning jaj22's intentions, and vote ET, giving 1 weak reason of his own, and citing the reasoning that Midnight was using to put suspicion on ET. For someone who has no opinion on Midnight, I think TKHawkins has spent far to much time defending him and working towards the same ends as him. As for Janaan My opinion on him is pretty obvious if you read my points on TKHawkins. Janaan has been contributing, trying to pull information out of people, he pointed out that he made a mistake with his vote on ET instead of trying sweep it under the rug. And unlike a few of you, even though he is currently convinced enough to vote for me, he seems to be holding himself apart from the situation a bit to avoid tunneling, something that I appreciate.
Thank you for posting exactly what I expected out of you.
The issue of Tk Hawkins and janaan are linked, Tk has been tunnelling janaan for a while now and I think his case has some basis, but only if your scum. You accuse Tk of buddying despite the fact that you have had what I consider one of the most notable buddyings with Janaan, plus while Hawk has stuck by his opinions so far janaan began distancing himself from you( though without condemning you) a while back when you first became suspicious.
its really very simple, if you flip red we lynch Janaan, if you flip green we lynch Hawk, because the only thing hawk has done is really tunnel Janaan and I consider you and janaan linked so if you come up green then I support Janaan your opinion here on Janaan and I will suspect Hawk. i just wanted you to say Hawk was bad which would imply you think janaan is good. I appreciate you making things simpler for me.
After DYH has been lynched I will provide an in depth case on why I think we should lynch janaan if DYH was red or hawk if DYH was green.
One thing though, Hawk has had little to do with DYH just like Janaan, so this post by DYH may be an elaborate scheme to make us lynch janaan when DYH flips scum because he supported Janaan with this post and turned out to be scum, however I do not think there is even a remote chance that neither of these players are mafia.
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On February 21 2012 07:14 Steveling wrote:
Interesting read.
You made quite a few connections about midnight and hawkings but you didn't state your conclusion.
Are you actually saying that they are working together? Clarify please.
You missed the point -_- he thinks Janaan is town and Hawk is scum because he's been tunnelling Janaan(among other things) Did you just read the first half or something? He discusses Janaan clearly at the end. Do you think they're working together?
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On February 21 2012 07:21 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him.
Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded?
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On February 21 2012 07:26 Steveling wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 07:19 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 07:14 Steveling wrote:
Interesting read.
You made quite a few connections about midnight and hawkings but you didn't state your conclusion.
Are you actually saying that they are working together? Clarify please. You missed the point -_- he thinks Janaan is town and Hawk is scum because he's been tunnelling Janaan(among other things) Did you just read the first half or something? He discusses Janaan clearly at the end. Do you think they're working together? So, he thinks janaan is town, hawk is tunneling him, so hawk is scum? Yeah better let him explain. lol And anyway I'm not interested in town reads, I'm interested in scum reads.
Thats exactly what he's thinking and if you've been keeping track of the game you would know that Janaan and Hawk are the two most under the radar and unhelpful posters, both lacking excuses. I've been suspicious of them for a very long time, as of now Janaan doesn't even have his own case, he just bandwagoned onto DYH without individual reason, in the past his excuse for that has been I don't wanna say anything thats already been said about him, which is by far the most unuseful thing you can possibly say on a primary suspect.
Janaan lives in the states, his only time issue has been thursday (which he noted) he should be one of our most active posters, he should be posting things first before anyones considered them. He hasn't, his accusations all come off as fluffy pressure and have not yielded a single clue. He has bandwagoned twice, once one Dim and now on DYH I will post a more in depth case on him later when DYH is dead but Steveling how can you possibly dismiss how unuseful Janaan has been? Point out a highlight of his play for me that has made a real difference to town please.
As for hawk, I'll deal with him if DYH flips town.
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On February 21 2012 07:38 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 07:25 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 07:21 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded? It's way too deterministic. Deductive arguments like that work if and only if you are completely certain of the premises, and I've seen one town player tunneling another way too frequently. I'd be more comfortable following up on Alderan first, and seeing what develops from there.
I'll post my case when DYH flips, you know there are more than one mafia, are you at least willing to consider Janaan or Hawk instead of Alderaan?
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On February 21 2012 07:38 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 07:25 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 07:21 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded? It's way too deterministic. Deductive arguments like that work if and only if you are completely certain of the premises, and I've seen one town player tunneling another way too frequently. I'd be more comfortable following up on Alderan first, and seeing what develops from there.
Also whats your opinion of me? Do you still feel as if my posts just hurt town?
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On February 21 2012 08:01 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 07:17 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 06:57 DoYouHas wrote:My thoughts on TKHawkins and JanaanTKHawkins+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. He echoes Midnight's sentiments and tells us about his lack of voting in the poll, which for the life of me I can't see a reason for explaining this. underlined- Then he proposes a policy of not going after lurkers early, which as I have previously mentioned, is convenient because he is one. But even beyond that, he provides some WIFOM reasoning as to why we should not go after lurkers which, as a number of you have pointed out, the scum could easily just read and act differently if we were to ever adopt this reasoning. He lurks for about 26hrs, then provides this weak analysis of Janaan + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:Janaan Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 17:11 Janaan wrote:
3. Something I'm really concerned about right now is that there seems to be a few players who have posted since the game started, but only in the most fluffy of ways. Specifically, jaj22, DimmuKlok, trackd00r, MannerKiss, and to a lesser extent, Steveling and TKHawkins. I understand if they didn't have the time to do more than just check in at the start of the game, but still, for so many people to just put out one or two fairly useless posts is overall not a good pro-town atmosphere. We HAVE to find some way to get people involved and posting.
One player that concerns me right now is MannerKiss. First he gets called out to provide some decent content by DoYouHas, then he posts a single sentence acknowledging DoYouHas's post, but doesn't post any content. I'm getting slightly scummy vibes from his play right now. It's worth looking into as we go forward.
1. In that quote he basically accuses almost everybody who had posted in the thread at the time of being lurkers or scummy. Its not really helpful to spray such accusations without backing it up. He complains about "fluff" posts but does not include Gumshoe in his list of people who are posting fluffy. 2. He then kinda jumps onto a DimmuKlok bandwagon based entirely on Alderan's post. 3. He says all the right things but isn't really contributing. @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? That list accused exactly who it said it would be accusing, the people who only had a couple of posts in the game so far and had yet to really get past the fluffy policy talk at the start of the game. It doesn't make sense that gumshoe would be on that list, he had posted frequently, and even if those posts were lacking merit, he was a center of conflict in the thread. 2. He is trying to frame Janaan as someone who was letting Alderan doing his thinking for him. But that is clearly not the case if you read Janaan's posts relating to Dimmuklok. 3. I also think he is saying the right things, and I think it is because he is Town. + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:Gumshoe does not follow direction well though. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 06:33 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 06:28 trackd00r wrote:On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote:
Ok, just woke up and caught on the action.
So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1.
The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone.
Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on.
But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation.
So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town.
What do you guys think?
I'm sorry Steveling, but I definitely think that no-lynch is no no. We are not close to night. We've only had played for 21 hours and that's less than half of the time. We still have plenty of time to build a strong case on anyone. There have been several stances where we could gather information and I know that we can use it to push out a lynch. If it turns out mafia, great. If not, we will see the bandwagons and those who are dodging the cases to make a good and hopefully successful lynch in the second day. Well, you have posted much more content than you did it on your previous post, but I insist, I disagree with a no-lynch. Gumshoe, sometimes I think that you are going more pro-town, but in some other instances I just don't understand your intentions. Even you manage to contradict your self: On February 17 2012 13:36 gumshoe wrote:Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't. blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one) Alderan - Absent no alibi Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) : Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious.track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so ) no reason to suspect as of yet Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius Janaan- is absent no alibi tk hawakins- is absent no aibi dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi zell - is absent no alibi jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. On February 18 2012 05:09 gumshoe wrote:
Now for stance number two! This ones about the lovely poll!
Unlike the topic of lynching lurkers, nearly everyone( with the exception of manner kiss and a few other lurkers) has stated an opinion on this matter, heres the breakdown of where everyone stands. Fore warning I'm a lot less objective here so take my opinions as you will.
Thinks I'm the nubbiest of noobs:
Blae(not much to say, just seems like he wants to move on from the poll which isn't really what a mafia would want)
Janan (just disregarded my poll and moved on, not very suspicious behaviour)
Steveling( hasn't commented to much, posted rather jokingly in response to my poll... Almost as if he wasn't worried about the prospect of me being mafia... Steve needs to post more.)
Midnight Gladius (didn't think I was mafia, not a suprise gladius dosent seem to take many risks)
TKHawkins( hasn't said much)
With this, I really want to make you think more carefully about you post. You say that Steveling has contributed to the discussion, when he actually didn't really at that point (he even loled at your poll) and then you suddenly realize deeper into the game that he hasn't commented much? I'm letting of the suspicion of you but please, please, think carefully every post you make. Instead of replaying to every post, try to start a case or at least draw your lynch candidates in a clear way. I swear that I can't even understand some of your posts, and not only to me, but all the town right here. For the moment, i'm lifting my suspicions about you and Steve I need to keep checking the filters and try to build up a strong case. There have been a lot of situations going on here and I'm starting to lose focus >_<. Expect more posting from me, I will. Understood officer wont happen again; I do not think he'd actually listen to scum telling him not to post like that. After all, people have already told him not to post like that here and he ignores everybody. He's definitely giving noob vibes. But a noob could be town or a noob could be mafia. The moderators assigning roles randomly don't care who gets what role. The idea of "he's acting too noob so he must be town because mafia would stop him" is a flimsy argument because he could just be a noob. I don't see how we are supposed to decide his innocence or guilty solely based on that.@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Hawk presents a similar reasoning to Midnight's regarding gumshoe then comes that underlined section. That first sentence is valueless. Then we get to his summary of the reasons that gumshoe could be town. Did anyone expect Hawk to decide gum's innocence or guilt based just on that? I certainly didn't, that wasn't my case. Now we get to his list of reads post, as I mentioned previously it is difficult to draw meaningful analysis out of a post like this, but I do have 2 thoughts. + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 01:19 gumshoe wrote:
As of now i really dont get any bad vibes from him,but i didnt really expect to suspect anyone this early in the game, that said gladus first posts explain the odds distribution in the game in a refined but obvius way, his other post was ano obvius but not hostile critique of my poll( the poll was also meant to garner hostile potentialy opotunity seeking mafia responses but his response was just polite and reasonay dismissive) he has not provided ano opinion on lynching lurlers FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Blae Quality post with a new argument against Ech for being too aggressive. Gets ticked at lurkers. Sees trackd00r and Janaan as pro-town. Blae feels very pro town to me. Would love to see more, but with the Europe timezone difference I think I will end up playing phone tag with him on the weekdays. Alderan Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes a case against DimmuKlok, Neutral until I can see more. Ech Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. DoYouHas Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious. MannerKiss There is a difference between lurking by not posting every 4 hours and lurking by actively reading the thread and then just not posting on it. Suspicious because is following the thread and not posting. Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Midnight I can't get a solid read on him. Slo0sh Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. Janaan Had a good explanation for a bad early post I pointed out. Seems to be trying to get other people's reads, so looks pro-town. DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much. jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. Every single one of us has earned a town/suspicious/null read from TKHawkins at this point, EXCEPT Midnight. He has since made the point that he is not the only person who had a hard time reading Midnight, which is true, I was one of them. However, I find it strange for 2 reasons. The first is that he managed to pull together a read on every other person, strange to me since I was having trouble with multiple persons. The second is that TKHawkins clearly had put a fair bit of thought into gumshoe, but didn't have an opinion on Midnight, who was highly involved with gum. Even I had at least looked at Midnight long enough to identify a few suspicious things in his play while I was preoccupied with slOosh. This is supposition, but I think there is a chance that TKHawkins tried to buddy trackd00r early. + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? Deferential tone. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Agreement. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
Strong pro-town read. Hawk's next 3 actions are to illicit blae's opinion on Midnight, defend Midnight by questioning jaj22's intentions, and vote ET, giving 1 weak reason of his own, and citing the reasoning that Midnight was using to put suspicion on ET. For someone who has no opinion on Midnight, I think TKHawkins has spent far to much time defending him and working towards the same ends as him. As for Janaan My opinion on him is pretty obvious if you read my points on TKHawkins. Janaan has been contributing, trying to pull information out of people, he pointed out that he made a mistake with his vote on ET instead of trying sweep it under the rug. And unlike a few of you, even though he is currently convinced enough to vote for me, he seems to be holding himself apart from the situation a bit to avoid tunneling, something that I appreciate. Thank you for posting exactly what I expected out of you. The issue of Tk Hawkins and janaan are linked, Tk has been tunnelling janaan for a while now and I think his case has some basis, but only if your scum. You accuse Tk of buddying despite the fact that you have had what I consider one of the most notable buddyings with Janaan, plus while Hawk has stuck by his opinions so far janaan began distancing himself from you( though without condemning you) a while back when you first became suspicious. its really very simple, if you flip red we lynch Janaan, if you flip green we lynch Hawk, because the only thing hawk has done is really tunnel Janaan and I consider you and janaan linked so if you come up green then I support Janaan your opinion here on Janaan and I will suspect Hawk. i just wanted you to say Hawk was bad which would imply you think janaan is good. I appreciate you making things simpler for me. After DYH has been lynched I will provide an in depth case on why I think we should lynch janaan if DYH was red or hawk if DYH was green. One thing though, Hawk has had little to do with DYH just like Janaan, so this post by DYH may be an elaborate scheme to make us lynch janaan when DYH flips scum because he supported Janaan with this post and turned out to be scum, however I do not think there is even a remote chance that neither of these players are mafia. It is not very simple, if I flip red, then you cannot trust my cases period. You know that I already consider myself as going to be lynched. All my stances could be misinformation, either spreading suspicion on townies, or distancing myself from my team. The point is, you wouldn't know which because it is all WIFOM, and would have to end up relying on your own analysis again. Luckily, you won't have to worry about that because I'm going to flip green. But even after I flip green, all that tells you is that my cases and reads are coming from a townie, you will STILL end up having to rely on your own analysis again. The speculation in your post serves no purpose. You need to understand that.
I've been considering both Janaan and Hawk for a while, theirs is one of the minor conflicts thats been playing out in the back ground. I suspect them not because of your post, your post is a foundation if you flip scum and If you flip green I'll just you cite on the back of my accusation of Hawk. Thats all. You also seem to underestimate the benefits of knowing someone is not lying.
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On February 21 2012 08:20 Janaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 07:17 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 06:57 DoYouHas wrote:My thoughts on TKHawkins and JanaanTKHawkins+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. He echoes Midnight's sentiments and tells us about his lack of voting in the poll, which for the life of me I can't see a reason for explaining this. underlined- Then he proposes a policy of not going after lurkers early, which as I have previously mentioned, is convenient because he is one. But even beyond that, he provides some WIFOM reasoning as to why we should not go after lurkers which, as a number of you have pointed out, the scum could easily just read and act differently if we were to ever adopt this reasoning. He lurks for about 26hrs, then provides this weak analysis of Janaan + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:Janaan Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 17:11 Janaan wrote:
3. Something I'm really concerned about right now is that there seems to be a few players who have posted since the game started, but only in the most fluffy of ways. Specifically, jaj22, DimmuKlok, trackd00r, MannerKiss, and to a lesser extent, Steveling and TKHawkins. I understand if they didn't have the time to do more than just check in at the start of the game, but still, for so many people to just put out one or two fairly useless posts is overall not a good pro-town atmosphere. We HAVE to find some way to get people involved and posting.
One player that concerns me right now is MannerKiss. First he gets called out to provide some decent content by DoYouHas, then he posts a single sentence acknowledging DoYouHas's post, but doesn't post any content. I'm getting slightly scummy vibes from his play right now. It's worth looking into as we go forward.
1. In that quote he basically accuses almost everybody who had posted in the thread at the time of being lurkers or scummy. Its not really helpful to spray such accusations without backing it up. He complains about "fluff" posts but does not include Gumshoe in his list of people who are posting fluffy. 2. He then kinda jumps onto a DimmuKlok bandwagon based entirely on Alderan's post. 3. He says all the right things but isn't really contributing. @Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? That list accused exactly who it said it would be accusing, the people who only had a couple of posts in the game so far and had yet to really get past the fluffy policy talk at the start of the game. It doesn't make sense that gumshoe would be on that list, he had posted frequently, and even if those posts were lacking merit, he was a center of conflict in the thread. 2. He is trying to frame Janaan as someone who was letting Alderan doing his thinking for him. But that is clearly not the case if you read Janaan's posts relating to Dimmuklok. 3. I also think he is saying the right things, and I think it is because he is Town. + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:Gumshoe does not follow direction well though. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 06:33 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 06:28 trackd00r wrote:On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote:
Ok, just woke up and caught on the action.
So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1.
The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone.
Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on.
But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation.
So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town.
What do you guys think?
I'm sorry Steveling, but I definitely think that no-lynch is no no. We are not close to night. We've only had played for 21 hours and that's less than half of the time. We still have plenty of time to build a strong case on anyone. There have been several stances where we could gather information and I know that we can use it to push out a lynch. If it turns out mafia, great. If not, we will see the bandwagons and those who are dodging the cases to make a good and hopefully successful lynch in the second day. Well, you have posted much more content than you did it on your previous post, but I insist, I disagree with a no-lynch. Gumshoe, sometimes I think that you are going more pro-town, but in some other instances I just don't understand your intentions. Even you manage to contradict your self: On February 17 2012 13:36 gumshoe wrote:Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't. blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one) Alderan - Absent no alibi Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) : Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious.track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so ) no reason to suspect as of yet Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius Janaan- is absent no alibi tk hawakins- is absent no aibi dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi zell - is absent no alibi jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. On February 18 2012 05:09 gumshoe wrote:
Now for stance number two! This ones about the lovely poll!
Unlike the topic of lynching lurkers, nearly everyone( with the exception of manner kiss and a few other lurkers) has stated an opinion on this matter, heres the breakdown of where everyone stands. Fore warning I'm a lot less objective here so take my opinions as you will.
Thinks I'm the nubbiest of noobs:
Blae(not much to say, just seems like he wants to move on from the poll which isn't really what a mafia would want)
Janan (just disregarded my poll and moved on, not very suspicious behaviour)
Steveling( hasn't commented to much, posted rather jokingly in response to my poll... Almost as if he wasn't worried about the prospect of me being mafia... Steve needs to post more.)
Midnight Gladius (didn't think I was mafia, not a suprise gladius dosent seem to take many risks)
TKHawkins( hasn't said much)
With this, I really want to make you think more carefully about you post. You say that Steveling has contributed to the discussion, when he actually didn't really at that point (he even loled at your poll) and then you suddenly realize deeper into the game that he hasn't commented much? I'm letting of the suspicion of you but please, please, think carefully every post you make. Instead of replaying to every post, try to start a case or at least draw your lynch candidates in a clear way. I swear that I can't even understand some of your posts, and not only to me, but all the town right here. For the moment, i'm lifting my suspicions about you and Steve I need to keep checking the filters and try to build up a strong case. There have been a lot of situations going on here and I'm starting to lose focus >_<. Expect more posting from me, I will. Understood officer wont happen again; I do not think he'd actually listen to scum telling him not to post like that. After all, people have already told him not to post like that here and he ignores everybody. He's definitely giving noob vibes. But a noob could be town or a noob could be mafia. The moderators assigning roles randomly don't care who gets what role. The idea of "he's acting too noob so he must be town because mafia would stop him" is a flimsy argument because he could just be a noob. I don't see how we are supposed to decide his innocence or guilty solely based on that.@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Hawk presents a similar reasoning to Midnight's regarding gumshoe then comes that underlined section. That first sentence is valueless. Then we get to his summary of the reasons that gumshoe could be town. Did anyone expect Hawk to decide gum's innocence or guilt based just on that? I certainly didn't, that wasn't my case. Now we get to his list of reads post, as I mentioned previously it is difficult to draw meaningful analysis out of a post like this, but I do have 2 thoughts. + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:Gumshoe Has had to spend most of the game defending himself. Looking at what else he's done besides that, he suspects Gladius for spending too much time on commenting on the set up. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 01:19 gumshoe wrote:
As of now i really dont get any bad vibes from him,but i didnt really expect to suspect anyone this early in the game, that said gladus first posts explain the odds distribution in the game in a refined but obvius way, his other post was ano obvius but not hostile critique of my poll( the poll was also meant to garner hostile potentialy opotunity seeking mafia responses but his response was just polite and reasonay dismissive) he has not provided ano opinion on lynching lurlers FOS's MannerKiss. Comments on how DimmuKlok made an accusation against "the most obvious runt" (Manner) and and the "second most obvious seeming runt" (himself). Later comments on how Ech and him are now the most obvious votes and pushes for Ech. These are the comments of somebody scrambling to stay alive, not scum. Blae Quality post with a new argument against Ech for being too aggressive. Gets ticked at lurkers. Sees trackd00r and Janaan as pro-town. Blae feels very pro town to me. Would love to see more, but with the Europe timezone difference I think I will end up playing phone tag with him on the weekdays. Alderan Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes a case against DimmuKlok, Neutral until I can see more. Ech Throws FOSs and Votes out very impulsively. Does not seem to have a plan, and could just be trying to cause unrest. Why say you had more to say about MidnightGladius being suspicious and then not say anything more? It's almost as if he voted for Midnight and then forgot why he was going to say he voted for him. Which a town would not do. Suspicious. DoYouHas Mostly bogged down with Gumshoe. Trying to tag sl0osh as a good player who wouldn't make such mistakes. It makes no sense to try to meta analyze a player with only one game of background. DoYouHas is jumping on perceived mistakes. Suspicious. MannerKiss There is a difference between lurking by not posting every 4 hours and lurking by actively reading the thread and then just not posting on it. Suspicious because is following the thread and not posting. Steveling Pushes a no lynch and then says he just got confused on the day length. Pushes the gumshoe, who is already getting a lot of heat. Suspicious because no lynch is anti town, even if we had no real leads and because he focuses us back on gumshoe. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read. Midnight I can't get a solid read on him. Slo0sh Still think he reacted too strongly to Ech and DoYouHas accusing him. Why feel guilty as town? Focuses discussion back on Gumshoe, possibly to distract us from his scum buddies. Suspicious. Janaan Had a good explanation for a bad early post I pointed out. Seems to be trying to get other people's reads, so looks pro-town. DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral. Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much. jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. Every single one of us has earned a town/suspicious/null read from TKHawkins at this point, EXCEPT Midnight. He has since made the point that he is not the only person who had a hard time reading Midnight, which is true, I was one of them. However, I find it strange for 2 reasons. The first is that he managed to pull together a read on every other person, strange to me since I was having trouble with multiple persons. The second is that TKHawkins clearly had put a fair bit of thought into gumshoe, but didn't have an opinion on Midnight, who was highly involved with gum. Even I had at least looked at Midnight long enough to identify a few suspicious things in his play while I was preoccupied with slOosh. This is supposition, but I think there is a chance that TKHawkins tried to buddy trackd00r early. + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? Deferential tone. @Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. Agreement. Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
Strong pro-town read. Hawk's next 3 actions are to illicit blae's opinion on Midnight, defend Midnight by questioning jaj22's intentions, and vote ET, giving 1 weak reason of his own, and citing the reasoning that Midnight was using to put suspicion on ET. For someone who has no opinion on Midnight, I think TKHawkins has spent far to much time defending him and working towards the same ends as him. As for Janaan My opinion on him is pretty obvious if you read my points on TKHawkins. Janaan has been contributing, trying to pull information out of people, he pointed out that he made a mistake with his vote on ET instead of trying sweep it under the rug. And unlike a few of you, even though he is currently convinced enough to vote for me, he seems to be holding himself apart from the situation a bit to avoid tunneling, something that I appreciate. Thank you for posting exactly what I expected out of you. The issue of Tk Hawkins and janaan are linked, Tk has been tunnelling janaan for a while now and I think his case has some basis, but only if your scum. You accuse Tk of buddying despite the fact that you have had what I consider one of the most notable buddyings with Janaan, plus while Hawk has stuck by his opinions so far janaan began distancing himself from you( though without condemning you) a while back when you first became suspicious. its really very simple, if you flip red we lynch Janaan, if you flip green we lynch Hawk, because the only thing hawk has done is really tunnel Janaan and I consider you and janaan linked so if you come up green then I support Janaan your opinion here on Janaan and I will suspect Hawk. i just wanted you to say Hawk was bad which would imply you think janaan is good. I appreciate you making things simpler for me. After DYH has been lynched I will provide an in depth case on why I think we should lynch janaan if DYH was red or hawk if DYH was green. One thing though, Hawk has had little to do with DYH just like Janaan, so this post by DYH may be an elaborate scheme to make us lynch janaan when DYH flips scum because he supported Janaan with this post and turned out to be scum, however I do not think there is even a remote chance that neither of these players are mafia. Just got back from class and read through everything. Gumshoe, just as a reminder, you can't lynch someone just because you think that they can be connected to an already-flipped mafia. If you have an actual case on either me or Hawkins, fine! Present the case, just make sure it's not based in assuming that one of us is scum because of DYH's reads.
I will have a case ( : but it does hang a bit on whether or not DYH is mafia so I'll post it after today, in the meanitme
DYH
what do you think of alderaan and trak?
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[QUOTE]On February 21 2012 08:43 TKHawkins wrote:
Alright, back from work. After catching up with the thread, let me start by addressing points made against me.
[QUOTE]On February 20 2012 13:39 EchelonTee wrote:
Also, people who try to tip the end of the voting line to guarantee a lynch are under suspicion. That would be me and TKHawkins. If you think I'm suspicious for doing so I wouldn't blame you, but I had previously indicated suspicion on Dimmuklok, so my vote switch wasn't motivated solely due to, while TKHawkins had never revealed any qualms with Dimmuklok. His vote sealed the death; this isn't a massively incriminating factor, but it is something that should be noted.
[/QUOTE]
This is actually not true.
[QUOTE]On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
DimmuKlok Seems to be overly emphasizing that he is new to the game and busy. So am I, but I don't feel the need to state that every other post. Neutral.
[/QUOTE]
I thought Dimmu's posts were too apologetic. He was not contributing reads. The vote pulled away from Ech very quickly as the deadline approached. It was obvious due to the activity level and approaching deadline that the only lynch that we could get votes for were Dimmu's. I figured a lynch on a guy who I thought had a good chance to be mafia was better then no lynch at all. In hindsight it did not work. But it was still the right call at the time considering the information we had at the time and the cases before us.
As for gumshoe's analysis with me and Janaan, it boils down to that I have suspicions against somebody else that there is no bandwagon on yet. That's it. It is never too early to reevalute town reads.
On to DYH.
[QUOTE]On February 20 2012 09:24 DoYouHas wrote:
Ok, we need to look closely at jaj22's posts now. The three most common reasons mafia hit someone are because they are on the right track, because they are largely considered a confirmed townie, or because mafia suspect them of being blue. I did not spot any obvious things pointing towards him being blue in a quick run through of his filter. This makes me think that he was killed for either for being close to a confirmed townie or because he was on the right track. He consistently pushed Midnight, he leaned town for both gumshoe and ET. Those were the main points of his stances, there were a few smaller ones. I am definitely taking this as a reason to reevaluate Midnight.[/QUOTE]
He WIFOMs hard here. Which is often a distraction. But why does he need to reevaluate Midnight.
[QUOTE]On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
I have been trying to make a cohesive case on just 1 person and failing. Instead I'm going to present some of the things that I have been looking at while trying to make that case.
MidnightGladius: He has been acting largely how I would expect him to. My questioning of gumshoe's probability was largely to draw MidnightGladius out after gum responded. I think that Midnight's attacks on gumshoe are not something I can use against him for right now when analyzing. The thing that I find strange about Midnight's play so far is the number of one-liners that come off as trying too hard to be fearless once he came under fire.
[QUOTE]On February 18 2012 09:45 MidnightGladius wrote:
You're not even going to vote for me?[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Welcome back! The last we saw you, DYH was your first scumread. Now, he's "pretty strong townie"?[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers?[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]You apparently think that nonsensical attacks should be taken seriously. If nothing else, vote with the proper formatting so that it will get counted properly. You're missing a colon at the moment.[/quote]
He soft accuses Midnight earlier. There is no reason to "reevaluate him" if he was already still somewhat suspicious of him. He defends Midnight's reactions as correct, but then points to Midnight's one liners as “trying too hard to be fearless once he came under fire.” This is a soft accuse allowing him to jump on Midnight again today.
I'm confident DoYouHas is red. There are too many cases against him for everybody's read to be wrong. The scum slip where he forgot to remove himself from the list of eight suspicious people who could be mafia is a give away.
##vote: DoYouHas[/QUOTE]
If it makes you feel better I'm leaning towards Janaan right now not you.
I pushed DYH a bit about you because I wanted to see his response, why? Because Janaan is the common link between you and DYH( Janaan has supported DYH but distanced himself accordingly when DYH attracted suspicion meanwhile you were attacking Janaan) by asking him about you I was really trying to ask him about Janaan who are deeply connected too, if DYH flips scum I am almost positive Janaan is scum as well.
That said your case on DYH is sorta irrelevant at this point because he is going to get lynched, I would much rather you spend your time pursuing your case on Janaan or building a new case on one of the twilight players like Trak and alderaan.
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again where be my brackets at /:
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On February 21 2012 08:55 Alderan wrote:
You have got to start using preview gumshoe....
Alderaan! Your back! Hey whats your opinion on Trak?
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EPT
