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On February 20 2012 13:32 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:21 MidnightGladius wrote:
There is no way we're letting a no lynch happen, not after this Day 1. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:37 MidnightGladius wrote:
I'd be willing to switch onto either DYH or DimmuKlok, but I think the only one we can actually get a majority on right now is DimmuKlok. If more people post to indicate that they're active, I would rather lynch DYH instead. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:52 MidnightGladius wrote:
I told you earlier that I felt more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok, but that I didn't think that we could have had a majority on him. This remains true, because if DYH were scum we'd assuredly never get majority, and the people who were in the thread at the time had already posted suspicions of DimmuKlok but not DYH.
He has been awfully quiet and detached. I certainly would like him to speak up. Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 06:03 MidnightGladius wrote:
My next case will be on Alderan:
[case on Alderan]
Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 08:29 MidnightGladius wrote:
I'm staying out of the current DYH/sl00sh debate, because their responses are pretty valid. I think they're starting to talk past each other, now, and so I decided to look in other directions.
I was originally suspicious of DYH when he hadn't yet started responding to our questions, when he wasn't clear on his stance towards lynching, and when he stayed on sl00sh throughout the end of voting without being online to prevent a no-lynch. My thoughts of him now are that he's still being stubborn on the mislynch in hindsight, but I can understand where he's coming from.
You're looking really scummy to me right now MG. Unless you provide good reasoning why you think DYH is town, it is absolutely incriminating that you would bring up a new lynch suspect "who apparently isn't even on anyone else's radar".
That was before he wrote his "town list" post, which was definitely a huge signal. I would certainly be willing to lynch DYH today on the basis that that post contradicted most of the principles that he even admitted to standing for earlier.
However, I have to disagree that looking at other players is incriminating, especially when one player is facing a lot of pressure. It seems especially important to me to focus on players who haven't faced any previous scrutiny. Otherwise, we'd just see one obvious bandwagon after another.
On February 20 2012 13:33 slOosh wrote:
P.S. Get off Alderan's case. He said he is working and will be busier during the weekends. Let him respond.
He has plenty of time to respond, but he has to know that there is pressure on him to respond, and quickly. Especially with our time zone problems, I'm not willing to let him effectively skip a whole day phase without offering any new reads.
On February 20 2012 13:39 slOosh wrote:
P.P.S.
Gumshoe I like your improvement in posting - both in clarity and conciseness.
As you say in your first post, I'm predicting he will be making a case on MG. Whether it is a bus or not I'm undecided as I am waiting for MG's response first.
In any case we lynching DYH today. Don't let our votes be split between two mafia candidates (should MG also be mafia)
Of course he's going to be making a case on me, because he already has a case open on me. I'm not really sure what you're talking about here.
##Vote: DoYouHas
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Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity.
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On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia.
Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him?
Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor?
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On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw?
You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH.
There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM.
Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him.
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On February 21 2012 07:25 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 07:21 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote:On February 21 2012 05:34 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote:On February 21 2012 05:19 MidnightGladius wrote:
Alderan, your analysis isn't paired with any actual conclusions, and I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that town players shouldn't be inclined to share their cases and suspicions. Are you still getting town reads from DYH? You certainly don't seem intent on providing a defense. Your last sentence implies that your current scum read is trackdoor, but could you confirm that that is indeed the case?
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded?
It's way too deterministic. Deductive arguments like that work if and only if you are completely certain of the premises, and I've seen one town player tunneling another way too frequently. I'd be more comfortable following up on Alderan first, and seeing what develops from there.
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Mattchew, that's brilliant. So brilliant, in fact, that I have to wonder about the false positive rate of the "no mutual mentions" method. If you look through the filters, the primary way that players mention everyone else is to do so through a list, town/null/scum style. Players who don't use such lists are always going to get "caught" by your method, which is why I think it's far less telling than you insist.
You're right, I haven' talked to zelblade, trackdoor, or TKHawkins. I also didn't explicitly deal with Steveling, sloosh, Janaan, or DimmuKlok. The only players I've directly talked to have been those attacking me, or those that I've been suspicious of.
Guess what, you haven't been talking to everyone, either. No one has!
I'm not going to go through every other player's filter and do the same thing, because you should see the point. This method encourages confirmation bias, doesn't really discriminate between innocents and scum, and then sounds really really convincing unless you look at the bias in the process.
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Also, we decided on the deadline for a good reason. If we're all going to start switching, it's going to create a hell of an accountability problem, with people having a reasonable excuse in that they committed to their votes beforehand and weren't in the thread to respond properly. That will cause a huge amount of chaos, and it will destroy all of the progress that we've made today.
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There are a lot of players here, you and I included, that just play that way. It's an interesting note in theory, and in hindsight it does prove to be quite strong, but I think the high false positive rate makes it an unreliable predictive tool.
I do agree with you that it's more likely than not that there's 1 or more scum in his list, just going off of the odds and regardless of whether he's right or wrong. With 15 players, the odds were ~76%, and with two innocents dead it's ~82%.
It's way past my bedtime 
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GG DYH.
My activity during the week is going to be much lower due to my ungodly schedule of classes, and I won't be able to read or post much from 8:00-5:00 PST,
I find Mattchew's play to be hurting the town. His condescension is frustrating, he still likes making claims without feeling the need to explain himself, and I have this feeling that he was too confident about DYH. He might have admitted to experimenting with playstyles after the fact, but his posting was extremely suspicious, and his defenses weren't compelling. For Mattchew to be so sure and willing to taunt us even before the flip is uncanny. It's also not helping town atmosphere, as others have said, for him to be so focused on his four targets, when almost everyone else has displayed hesitation towards it.
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I don't follow your reasoning. We know that DYH is innocent, but that doesn't support or refute any of his reads.
I thought Sloosh had a good case, and I can forgive him his tunneling, because I too felt that it was the right thing to do at the time. Hindsight is 20/20, and we can't condemn him solely on the basis of his being wrong.
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On February 22 2012 11:51 Mattchew wrote:
to all of my accused.. (hawk track MG zel) I want each of you to post in detail what you all think of 1 another
I will never rule out I could be wrong (I don't think I am right now) but this will help any of you that could by some slight chance be town survive
Are you sure that you're even willing to be convinced at this point? I can see the writing on the wall, and I don't want to waste my breath when I could be doing something less frustrating and more productive instead.
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What a wonderful thing to come back to after my midterm :/.
GG GL!
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Gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
That was not pleasant, either to participate in or to observe. Well played, mafia, well played.
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Am I the only one who finds it hilarious that I was the only one to post suspicions on Alderan, prior to which no one had him on the radar. Afterwards, no one had him on the radar. And now in post-game, everyone says that no one was suspicious of him.
As for failing to defend myself properly, you're right, I probably could have kept on fighting up to the end, but school was really cutting down on my time, and with my midterm the night I died, I decided that I would be better off focusing on that, instead. You guys certainly didn't make it easy for me to try to exonerate myself.
Sometimes, I wonder why I even try to play this game :D
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EPT
