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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 2

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MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:13 GMT
#384
EchelonTee:

1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless.

2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?

3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes.

4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take.

5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:21 GMT
#388
There is no way we're letting a no lynch happen, not after this Day 1.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:26 GMT
#393
We have less than an hour to reach a consensus. How many people are even active right now?

Mattchew, I thought you wouldn't be around. Why are you voting for me?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:29 GMT
#395
On February 19 2012 08:13 MidnightGladius wrote:
EchelonTee:

1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless.

2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?

3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes.

4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take.

5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them.

Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:33 GMT
#396
People who seem to be active right now:

1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe

We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.

Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:37 GMT
#399
I'd be willing to switch onto either DYH or DimmuKlok, but I think the only one we can actually get a majority on right now is DimmuKlok. If more people post to indicate that they're active, I would rather lynch DYH instead.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:44 GMT
#402
20 minutes left. Are we seriously just going to sit idly and let the first day go by?

##Unvote: EchelonTee
##Vote: DimmuKlok
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:51 GMT
#406
In that case we still need 1 more vote on DimmuKlok to get majority. Where did everyone who was posting earlier go?

I still don't have replies from:
- gumshoe
- Mattchew
- Janaan

gumshoe was active all of yesterday, and now he suddenly decides to disappear? At the most important time? And then Mattchew pops into the thread, posts a one-liner, and vanishes again? When he said earlier that he wouldn't be back until after the lynch? Christ in buckets.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:58 GMT
#416
TKHawkins, you mispelled it. It won't get counted.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 18 2012 23:59 GMT
#422
In buckets!
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 00:24 GMT
#432
I don't know how feasible that would be, but I'm afraid that as we move into the weekdays, lots of people are going to be in class or at work at around this time in the afternoon. That may be our best option going forward.

I'm feeling really suspicious towards Mattchew right now. After replacing in for MannerKiss, he claimed that he wouldn't be active until Sunday, conveniently after the first day deadline. This absolves him of responsibility for the first lynch, but instead of voting for a lurker, he places his vote on me, without any justification.

Then he returns for this jewel of a post:

On February 19 2012 08:25 Mattchew wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?

##Vote: MidnightGladius

Scumslip.

You hang tomorrow


~30 minutes before the deadline. Not only does this directly contradict his earlier post, but he also didn't follow up on his reasoning for voting me.

Then, and this is the big issue I have with him: he disappears for the deadline, leaving his vote on me when it was unclear whether we'd be able to get a lynch at all. It's obvious that he hasn't just logged off, either, as he makes a post in the Werewolves thread 7 minutes later.

Why did he lie? Why did he fail to explain his vote against me? Why did he leave again, threatening to leave the town without a lynch?

It's unfortunate that I can't vote for Mattchew now, because I would strongly favor doing so.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 00:46 GMT
#442
I still don't like the methods EchelonTee used to pursue his case against me, and his actual case is pretty loose. That said, he did follow through on his stated intentions, and he gave us all a bunch of posts to sift through. I will be going through him in greater detail later, but for now the more glaringly suspicious player is Mattchew, and I think that we should approach our lynches in order of certainty.

On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?

What do you guys think of each other?


I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit.

However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so.


You're misinterpreting why I'm suspicious.

1. It's not that he voted for me, but rather that he voted for an active player (even admitting to reading my filter), without providing any reasons. If he had time to read a filter, how would he not have time to provide even a few reasons?

2. Mattchew could have easily justified his posting patterns, but didn't. If he's still here, then I invite him to just explain his decision to vote for me.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 00:49 GMT
#444
On February 19 2012 09:45 EchelonTee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2012 09:42 slOosh wrote:
I agree with you, but I wanted the information to be clear to everyone.
For instance, I'm not sure what MidnightGladius' stance on you is.



Fair enough, I do agree that it's a bit strange that Midnight did not want to pursue me further. 5 votes were on me, he had something rolling if he truly believed me scum.

So, that DoYouHas character, eh.


The same goes for you. Instead, you chose to play DOTA?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 00:52 GMT
#449
I told you earlier that I felt more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok, but that I didn't think that we could have had a majority on him. This remains true, because if DYH were scum we'd assuredly never get majority, and the people who were in the thread at the time had already posted suspicions of DimmuKlok but not DYH.

He has been awfully quiet and detached. I certainly would like him to speak up.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 00:53 GMT
#452
I have no idea what gumshoe thinks he's doing, and frankly I'm too burned out from arguing with him yesterday to relish the idea of continuing our debate :/
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 01:00 GMT
#454
I just meant to say that if you truly thought me to be scum, you could also have kept pushing up until the lynch deadline. Otherwise, the argument along those lines against me is baseless, and I'm kind of getting tired of it.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 01:07 GMT
#457
You're missing the point again. That argument (should've pushed harder if truly convicted) is weak coming from either of us, as neither of us actually did it. It's the pot calling the kettle black
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 21:03 GMT
#504
My next case will be on Alderan:

Alderan's behavior strikes me as strange for a few broad reasons, and there are some details that also don't fit. He is the first to nominate DimmuKlok as our lurker candidate of choice, but the fact that he actually went ahead and made a "case" - a point-by-point analysis of only three posts - is completely superfluous. PBPA is never helpful, as Alderan should know, considering that he's had two games of playing experience and has read through several others.

He soft-defends gumshoe, claiming that his play is too elaborate to be scum, and that the town's attention on him is "unnecessary." In addition, he says to look at those pressuring gumshoe (Steve and I), but he never follows through on that.

Then, after the lynch, he says that he's going to be doing vote analysis, which sounds like a great idea, but then that also never materializes. He has since provided a null read on DYH and nothing else.

In its totality, Alderan's posts are lacking in what I consider to be actual contributions to the town, and the way he pushed DimmuKlok seemed much too emphatic compared to the rest of his reads he's made so far. He hasn't followed up on several of his claims, and has instead provided several bits of fluff, like "stay active when accused."

Now would be a good time to take your own advice.

My other headaches remain:

1) gumshoe: He continues not to take advice, despite getting even more of it recently, writing huge walls of text full of WIFOM and jumping to more conclusions than I can count. My doubts really hinge on whether I think the mafia team would dare let one of their members play so carelessly, but the fact is that they very well could, so I don't think that that's a valid line of defense. My intuition tells me that he's town, but the actual evidence for his innocence just isn't there.

2) Mattchew: I acknowledge that players getting replaced in at this time of the game have a really high chance of being innocent, but two things stick out to me. One, that heuristic applies to players modkilled for inactivity, and MannerKiss was not modkilled, only replaced. Secondly, Mattchew's play since joining the game has not been reassuring at all. When Adam4167 replaced into NMM3, he had the advantage of being able to look at everything with a fresh set of eyes, not having to deal with tunneling, and as a result, he made some great contributions to town play. Mattchew, on the other hand, has barely improved on MannerKiss' original posting. I'm willing to hear him out, but he has a lot to answer for.

EchelonTee, I just reread your filter, and I really think that I'm running the risk of tunneling you :/. I'm going to look at some other players now, but I will come back later, with hopefully a fresh perspective on things.
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 19 2012 23:29 GMT
#515
On February 20 2012 08:10 Janaan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2012 09:52 MidnightGladius wrote:
I told you earlier that I felt more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok, but that I didn't think that we could have had a majority on him. This remains true, because if DYH were scum we'd assuredly never get majority, and the people who were in the thread at the time had already posted suspicions of DimmuKlok but not DYH.

He has been awfully quiet and detached. I certainly would like him to speak up.


I was hoping to get your thoughts on DYH, now that he's responded to accusations. Are you still suspicious? In fact, you say that you were actually more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok before the vote, but you never actually posted any analysis on him at all. In fact, you only have one post even mentioning him before stating that you'd prefer to lynch him. That post was:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2012 05:06 MidnightGladius wrote:
EBWOP:

To DYH: My one-liners were in response to obviously empty posts. There was nothing for me to say, but I wanted to let them know that I was there and ready to respond to more thorough allegations. When they never followed up with anything substantive, I had nothing more to say.

I'm going to read the rest of your post now.


I assume that you did, in fact, read the rest of his post, but didn't feel the need to address any of it? At what point and why did you start suspecting DYH, and what are your thoughts on him now?


I'm staying out of the current DYH/sl00sh debate, because their responses are pretty valid. I think they're starting to talk past each other, now, and so I decided to look in other directions.

I was originally suspicious of DYH when he hadn't yet started responding to our questions, when he wasn't clear on his stance towards lynching, and when he stayed on sl00sh throughout the end of voting without being online to prevent a no-lynch. My thoughts of him now are that he's still being stubborn on the mislynch in hindsight, but I can understand where he's coming from.

On February 20 2012 08:15 Mattchew wrote:
Hey guys, I am reading currently but probably wont post anything for awhile. Its nighttime anyway so its not too important to post a lot now. I voted Midnight because I got subbed in like 12 hours before the lynch, read through the top 3 and voted who I felt was scummiest.


Explain your behavior before the lynch, when you called out gumshoe and left without saying anything else. You do realize that that sequence was very suspicious, right?
Trust in Bayes.
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
February 20 2012 03:08 GMT
#543
I just got back from a rather exhausting shift at work, and I'm not really in the mood to get back into the rough and tumble.

I see that no one has brought up my case against Alderan, who apparently isn't even on anyone else's radar: There have been no references to him in the last 2 pages, and the ones before that all come from people putting him on a town list. This, incidentally, is why I think town lists are terrible, because if you're wrong, you're giving that player a blank check, and if you're right, then the mafia have a better choice of targets. He said that he'd be back by 7-8 EST, so he should have had a few hours now to respond by now. And he hasn't.

I'm personally perplexed by how people think I'm the most scummy here. We have among us lurkers (Alderan and blae000, who for what it's worth is getting replaced anyways), admitted liars (gumshoe), and players who still haven't explained their actions (Mattchew). I've been trying to play an honest and accountable game, but the major cases against me (EchelonTee, DYH) point at ulterior motives (not having a "town perspective," and not directly addressing a case that I felt had no merit, respectively). The frustrating part of all of this is that, by accusing my intentions and not my actions, you're leaving me with no way to convince you otherwise.

I'm really not sure where to go from here. I have a solid read on Alderan as mafia, but if no one's even going to consider what I've been saying, then I'm going to stop wasting your time. Hopefully, my mislynch will be enough to convince you that you've been going about this the wrong way all along.
Trust in Bayes.
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