Resistance 2 - Tunnel Rats - Page 6

On December 26 2011 17:03 Blazinghand wrote:


Assuming truly random picks, there's a (2/3) chance of picking a townsperson each time, meaning that there's a (2/3)^3 chance of getting 3 townies, or 8/27-- pretty bad.

I think it's reasonable to select yourself as part of your group. If you are town, it would be very unreasonable for you not to select yourself at this phase in the game when there have been neither successful nor unsuccessful missions yet. To yourself, you are a confirmed townie. Then you face somewhat decent odds of picking out two townspeople to come with you.

I think it's unreasonable to assume that there is 1 mafia among Zona/Palmar/Radfield. there could easily be 2 or 0. But EVEN ASSUMMING the layout is "1 mafia in Zona/Palm/Rad, 1 mafia in Jack/Grey/VE, 1 mafia in Blaze/Truth/Toad", the correct answer isn't to pick one guy from each group...

Because you, Radfield, know your own alignment. If you really think that there is 1 mafia in Zona/Palm/Rad, you should actually take one of Zona/Palm along with you! This is because you personally have the information that you're town, and can therefore say (assuming, again, that there's some distribution like that) that one of Zona/Palm is town. Therefore, you pick one of Zona/Palm, and you only have one pick left, and so you just need one solid-read town pick to create the following situation:

Team: Radfield (yourself, who is confirmed town to you), plus Zona (for example), plus someone who gives off a solid town read like, say, Blazinghand. If the mission fails, you can reasonably say "well I think this was Zona" (though others will not be able to do so). The beauty of this though is, assuming you're right about the "1 mafia among Zona/Palm/Rad", If your mission succeeds, you've pinned down a mafia member! (WIFOM alert: Mafia, knowing this, might intentionally not sabotage, etc).

Contrast taking a team like Radfield/VE/Toad, and a mission success-- Assuming your "1 mafia among Zona/Palm/Rad" idea is correct, this doesn't give us any info on who that was. Same with a mission failure.

So, if you really think one of Zona/Rad/Palm is mafia, and you are very sure of this due to the high relative skills of these specific players you, being Rad and knowing your own alignment, are in a unique position to form a team that grants you information-- so your current metric for forming a team is flawed.

I will not grant you a pre-emptive vote based on your ideas for acting on your reasoned assumptions.

THAT BEING SAID,

I do NOT think it it safe to say that there is one and only one mafia among zona/rad/palm. It's certainly possible, but it's also possible that Forumite was like "well I think this is a newbie game so I'm gonna stack the deck in favor of town and make a bunch of crap players mafia like that Blazinghand punk", or maybe he was like "lol man these guys gonna get rolled so hard, Zona, Rad and Palm all gonna be my mafia lololololol"

So, I also do not grant you a pre-emptive vote based on the assumptions underlying your ideas. I will wait to see the team itself.

That being said, I would not be unwilling to vote for your team once you have constructed it, should I determine it to be solid. I'm only pointing out that anyone who's thinking of pre-emptively yessing you (Truthbringer...) may want to put a wee bit more thought into it.

Just saying.