You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.

If you look on page 10 I was actually the first to suggest zarepath, you made your point on page 11, not trying to say anything I just wouldn't like to be forgotten about that.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

January 31 2012 03:11 GMT

#430

Wow guess we were right about both of them, we lost another town but at least MG's shot hit. Time to start scouring for the final two mafia, I'm feeling optimistic that today's analysis on top of previous parts will bring down another mafia. Now for whom I think I would have to go with zelblade and either SS or chocolate, but zelblade is at a 75-80% probability in my mind and the others at about 60%. Not the best odds (to me at least from what I saw, this is all personal opinion) but its something to go off of at least (trying not to get tunnel vision)

P.S. My compliments to dreamflower for making the story much more interesting :D

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

January 31 2012 03:36 GMT

#433

On January 31 2012 12:26 DoYouHas wrote:
I will be making my case against [red]Simberto[red] today. This will include why he is mafia, why he is the most dangerous to the town atm, and why he needs to be lynched today above all others. This will be another wall of text post and so I encourage you to look into him yourself since it will take me a while to write. Don't just use his filter either, you need a sense of what was going on in the thread in order to see what I've seen.

I like that you bring that up, I just started looking through his posts and what he reacts too, and am starting to get a feel for what you might say. Hopefully I see your post before I go to sleep, but until then I will be looking into him more.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

January 31 2012 03:42 GMT

#434

One thing I would like to point out right now because I might not have time to post again is that Simberto targets zelblade nearly 100% of the time only when it seems like there is no way zelblade is talked about or targeted by others does he seem to talk about others. This just rubs me the wrong way but its not truly condemning until further evidence might show up.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 01 2012 03:16 GMT

#486

On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something.

Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise.

Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode.

I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him.
##Vote Chocolate

One thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of Them

So I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later)

Interesting points, after reading a lot of previous posts I think that my new top three that might be mafia (I know there is only two left) would have to be chocolate simberto zelblade though I doubt both simberto and zelblade would be mafia together, still not even close to 100% on any of these so i think I will hold my vote off for a bit.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 01 2012 21:20 GMT

#507

Gah, the three whom I said I thought most likely to be mafia before are still in my mind, but now things are getting so convoluted that its just hard to make up a decision about any of them. I think its time to start looking for whoever is posting A LOT after someones analysis (especially about them) and seems to be trying to clog this up.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 02 2012 00:49 GMT

#525

I am still not 100% on anyone, but I will not want a no lynch so in order to at least get a vote in I am going with simberto, whom I suspected earlier but wasn't totally sure on, also who is currently set to get lynched. Just in case anyone changes I feel I will stick with simberto

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 02 2012 02:27 GMT

#529

@Cosmas, why do I get this feeling that you absolutely hate committing to anything in this game? You're last post makes me feel like you want to show initiative that you are being a townie, yet don't want any responsibility of a miss-lynch. Is it just me, or is anyone else reading that? Do cat-foot around. You seem so wishy-washy.

Bromancipate, I don't hate committing in this game, just at this moment I do not feel that there is a strong enough candidate as mafia for me to completely go behind, I have said before that I am trying to look at the bigger picture of things and not to focus on one person, I don't know who is mafia and who isn't and until I see enough evidence to form my own opinion of a person I try not to simply go for them. Now I am voting for simberto because 1: He is on my list of who I feel is most likely to be mafia, and 2: he is the majority vote right now, but its very close and I'd rather see someone on my list get lynched then someone to change their vote and there be a no lynch. And frankly your aggressive tone towards everyone in this game doesn't rub me the right way, not trying to insinuate too much I will just be watching you closer from now on and looking closer at your past statements.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 02 2012 03:36 GMT

#536

Well I guess 1 on my previous thought list had to be town (here's hoping the other two are correct) but time to re-evaluate again (not blaming anyone in particular but this is why I wasn't 100% on this) and yea 24 hour day cycle would be fine with me now that the game is moving along

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 03 2012 00:48 GMT

#556

I don't see why I am suddenly a target again, but I feel a zelblade lynch would be best at this point simply based on the options left. Bromancipate bugs me but being a hydra is a pain to try and read and study, so I am not sure who is talking when or what their specific opinions are at that time. A team between the two is plausible but we can only really wait until one of them dies to make an astute conclusion about that.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 03 2012 03:13 GMT

#571

If he was this makes me feel like he was on the right track with chocolate, not clearing zelblade but 1:how do you know he was shot, 2:why the instant jump to zelblade (i still feel zelblade is mafia, not trying to say he isnt)

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 03 2012 03:48 GMT

#576

On February 03 2012 12:40 Bromancipate wrote:

Show nested quote +

He claimed medic, that is the only way he would know if Adam was shot. I think he is sold on Zelblade.

Yea I assumed he was medic after that statement, I just don't see a reason to paint a target on his back like that for mafia, he wasn't in danger of being lynched and adam wasn't either. I guess adam being shot helps the point on chocolate, not so much on zelblade, adam barely seemed to talk of zelblade recently.

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 03 2012 03:52 GMT

#577

On February 03 2012 12:47 DoYouHas wrote:
Alrighty then, the time has finally come. I am the Detective. You know this to be true, but to make sure, I have been breadcrumbing.
The first night I investigated CosmosXAM, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +

First character first line, second character second line, x=x. Forms the word checking in a diagonal line pointing to CosmosXAM in this post.

The second night I investigated SacredSystem, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +

In this post I formed the word investigate out of 'inv'entory, 'esta'blish, 'gat'her, lik'e', all leading to SacredSystem.

The third night I investigated zelblade, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +

In this post I did the same thing as with SacredSystem, except with the words 'in', 've'ry, 'sti'll, waitin'g', 'at, th'e', leading to zelblade.

So now, what to do with this information? I have not checked sl0osh, Adam, Bromancipate, or Chocolate. Given the nature of the day1 performances of all the people I have checked so far (lurking) I find it unlikely that a godfather is among them, especially with Bromancipate on the board. I have strong town reads on sl0osh and Adam, and apparently Adam has been saved tonight, (still waiting on confirmation). This leaves our remaining mafia as Bromancipate and Chocolate.

Genius my friend! :D well that settles it for me
##Vote: Bromancipate (never really liked the hydra anyway)

CosmosXAM

United States121 Posts

February 03 2012 04:07 GMT

#580

On February 03 2012 13:04 Adam4167 wrote:
I was shot last night, as I was expecting.

Grats on the zealot dreamflower =)

I had DoYouHas figured out as the cop very early on, but I knew he didnt check Simberto on night 2, since he posted his reads at 11:59, before a cop check would have come back. Hence why I took such offence to Chocolate pointing it out (albeit with flawed reasoning)

Well, we cant count out the possibility of a GF, one of your innocent checks may infact be him. They have no roleblocker, so 4 goons vs a Cop, Medic and 1-shot vig sounds a bit unfair, giving heavy weight to a GF being present.

Sloosh, did you protect n2? i thought for sure if we had a medic, he would have protted MG after claiming vig. Either way, boss saves bro.

Whos taking the first swing today?

if there was a GF I dont see how he could get two mafia goons, unless one is a miller which I doubt we have but no one can know that for 100%