Hammer Mini Mafia - Page 2

I don't like this post. In fact this plan is very bad. If I was mafia, I would love this plan and support it, because of an easy counterplan.

First of all, look at the concept of stability. Sentinel proposes that stability is more important in the early game than in the late. This is very wrong. Stability is more important in the late game than in the early.
In the early game, although it is bad if the mafia suddenly gets 5 extra vote power Day 2, we still have time to account for it. However if the mafia suddenly gets 5 extra vote power Day 3, it could suddenly lose the game.
Day 1/2 we have the freedom to try to achieve information at the risk of loosing vote power, day 3/4+ we do not simply because there is the high chance of loss

My plan accounts for that because it focuses on stabilizing the late game, after a very tumultuous night 1.

Secondly, look at information. Sentinel makes the fundamental assumption that circle-jerking will provide meaningful information. It won't, but it will provide a lot of WIFORM. However vote transfers will always have lots of information because every vote transfer is known. People will need to account for their votes.

Sentinel's plan achieves neither of his goals of stability. In fact, there is a very dangerous counterplan that guarantees mafia an overwhelming advantage day 3

Counterplan: Between Day 1 and Day 2, give town 1 VP, and give mafia 1 VP
1: All mafia live. N3 Mafia has 13 VP, town has 17 VP. If town gives up 2 VP.If one townies mistransfers, mafia wins
2. 1 Mafia is lynched. N3 Mafia has 10 VP, town has 20 VP. If town gives up 5 VP, mafia wins. More likely, 1-2 townies will mistransfer leading to Mafia entering with 12-14 VP, and town having 15-16 VP. This sets up lylo as the town has to be unanimous in order to unseat mafia.

I believe this flaw is intentional and therefore I have a Red read on Sentinel

Conclusion: I should read the thread before posting. And
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel

On January 29 2012 07:11 LSB wrote:
We have about 3 hours to get a lynch in and I will spend this time to push forth what I think is the best lynch, [UoN]Sentinel.

I can see similarities between my mafia play in previous games and his play here. One of effective plays a mafia can do is to blatantly play for the mafia side. Sometimes town doesn’t notice, and sometimes a few people do notice but they don’t do anything till it’s too late

In addition, this play is very effective for this setup, even if you are exposed, you could simply transfer 2 of your votes away to your team, minimizing a loss of a sacrifice.

As I have stated here, the plans that [UoN]Sentinel proposes all have effective mafia counterplans:
-Circlejerk is obvious, but mafia friendly
-His wait 2 nights and then free trade is disastrous, and results in either a D2 or D3 lylo.
-His wait 1 night is almost as bad, and put on shaky reasoning
To say that I am ‘giving him too much credit’ or ‘he can’t possibly scheme that for ahead’, would be an unfair underestimation. His posts demonstrate he is capable of thinking ahead and the ability to formulate intricate counterplans.

Although he had a change of heart in the later stages, this only happened after I called him out on his plan, and it is standard play to drop any obvious mafia tactics as soon as possible. Because of his blatant attempts to mislead the town, to me he is the most obvious mafia