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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 29 2011 21:06 GMT
#1041
Hmm, maybe L is right about chez? The fact that L has enough votes on him and chez has never been in the thread. L is mafia, chez must be mafia (I don't see the bussing thing helping mafia in LYLO). L is town, then I can't really see chez not being mafia. Whatever I'll keep my vote on L, because alot of the talk here seems very opinionated. I haven't reached the conclusion that L is mafia through analysis, which seems faulty.

Trust the gut. And mafia being pansies.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 03:20 GMT
#1047
Do your best meapak. We believe!
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 03:41 GMT
#1048
Oh wait lynch ends in a little over an hour. Update us before that with your best thoughts.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 05:16 GMT
#1053
Fuck L you know how to worry the shit of people. I'm still torn on chez/meapak, but I think it's retty likly they are scum. Sheth or someone was obviously saving face. I'm not completely sold on anything though.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 05:24 GMT
#1055
I'm fine with that. Imagine if people saved their bullets! Don't worry, I'm counting about 3 other vigis.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 15:02 GMT
#1062
@Meapak, Don't think too much about it, chez is wierd

@prphlz I don't see any reason not to claim, the remaining mafia aren't all of a sudden going to start being mean, and I wanted to give a lead night 2 on L:


On December 28 2011 13:58 bumatlarge wrote:
Well, I'm gonna claim, don't see much reason not too.

Surprise, I'm a vig as well. I'm a good manner vig, so if I could prove to Host that someone is being mean, I could shoot them. I assumed mafia would know about my role, so I played a little wacky to make people mad.

People who got mad:
Palmar

Thats about it. And he was traitor. I'm fairly certain mafia is playing around triggers, including mine. L has been a huge offender of this, picking up on what I was hinting at and not chancing that I was a defensive or investigative role. What if I was a DT who could check people who discuss set-ups, or a medic who can protect people who quote me 3 times or something. Because to mafia, I'm only ever going to be a vig. There is no other blue roles except vigs.

Also, I could probably shoot WBG, so he's either a super ballsy scum, or an innocent townie. I'm leaning latter. Kinda funny how the best way to use my role against passive scum is to never use it. But I'm proud of how I played it. Would secretly ally with chezinu again. I really have no idea what chezinu's alignment is, despite my interactions.


But Foolishness actually shooting him and crumbing the hit completely overshadowed it. There isn't much else to explain, I could have jumped on RoL along with the rest of you and we could have lost. It's better for you to trust me. I mean, I have quite a few triple posts in this thread, and you shot WBG over me, so you must think I'm pretty townie
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 17:54 GMT
#1071
I doubt kita is scum. He has had extremely similar play to myself if you disregard the chez era. Sure L, could have been a bus, but if we were both scum, we could have simply unvoted without fear and won the game? If only one of us, then Chez obviously take precedence.

I never hinted at chez being confirmed town at all. Just the oposite. I just feel bad for meapak. He didn't hammer a vote on to L, which seems rather straightforward if there are already 5 townies on L. Anyone not pushing meapak tomorrow needs to share with the class.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 17:56 GMT
#1072
On December 31 2011 02:47 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Right now my reads are

Leaning town heavily:
Prplhz
Syllogism
RoL
Myself

Leaning scum
Kita
Meapak

Borderlands
Bum


AINT NO REST FOR THE WICKED, MONEY DONT GROW ON TREES

Scum:
Meapak
Sheth

Everyone-else:
who cares

Chill dudes:
Me
RoL
Kita
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 30 2011 19:22 GMT
#1074
On December 31 2011 03:59 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 31 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote:
I doubt kita is scum. He has had extremely similar play to myself if you disregard the chez era. Sure L, could have been a bus, but if we were both scum, we could have simply unvoted without fear and won the game? If only one of us, then Chez obviously take precedence.

I never hinted at chez being confirmed town at all. Just the oposite. I just feel bad for meapak. He didn't hammer a vote on to L, which seems rather straightforward if there are already 5 townies on L. Anyone not pushing meapak tomorrow needs to share with the class.


This is something that I disagree with. If you all took your votes off, there would have been a no-lynch on l. Then its 5-3 at night, you'll have two KP. However town now KNOWS who the 3 are. I didn't say this earlier, because I was hoping they would do this. So hopefully town has 1-2 shots of their own. So at the end of the night its probably 3-2 town ahead, which leads to a 3-1 town after the lynch and then 2-1, and town wins. Thats with only 1 kp vig shot.

Just pointing out I think your logic is wrong bum, and you pointing that out as logic for why your not mafia is scary to me. Your reads are also a bit weird, why do you say "everyone else" : who cares. I care about each and every one of you. :/


Why would I care who is town? The object of the game is to oust scum, not figure out who is town. If they aren't on my radar, then I really don't see a reason to worry about them.

Hopefully isn't a guaranteed town win. If town had no viable shots or mafia has more then 1 roleblocker, we would have got off scott free. And that doesn't explain how kita and I generated the L lynch. The L lynch would not have happened and you guys would have stuck around on the RoL wagon for the rest of the lynch. I don't think there was much reason to go through all this trouble and then have this conversation if we could have been having a post-game conversation.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 31 2011 01:14 GMT
#1078
Isn't that a reference to modkills? I mean really, you guys could tone down constant questions. I think I said this before, but it doesn't help as much as you think it might.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
December 31 2011 23:08 GMT
#1107


Now your making it hard to lynch you! Though, I think you're too nice to say that, so you must be last scum!
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 01 2012 04:32 GMT
#1110
I think it;s just bad luck that it fell during this week. i don't have much time either to really digfar into this, but we do get 2 lynches, so I'm going to place my vote on meapak, though I find the meapak/Kita hit fishy for some reason. If I didn't already think kita was town, I'd say he could hide behind hitting the same person as meapak. I think it's more likely that meapak's claim as scum never hurts him. If syllo didn't die, well then he claims roleblock, along with sheth. Syllo did die so it makes him look good. If meapak died instead of syllo, syllo's position would be arguable. I'm thinking that if there was a scum medic, it was syllo, and he protected meapak so that scenario would never come up. I little reaching, but then every scenario makes perfect sense. Sheth RB was 50/50, as I couldn't prove someone was being mean, an kita was the only option.

I'm pretty torn between meapak and sheth, but I could be wrong about kita. Is there any situation that RoL is scum? prphlz was pretty set on a bus for some reason, but I feel the events RoL came through are too favorable to ignore the others. I would have shot RoL over prphlz myself as scum.

Meh, I think claiming is pretty safe now, alot of us could have been punished last night and were not. There is no reason to use vig hits from now on. I'd like to hear more thoughts on the motives and roles and hits and moles
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 01 2012 22:47 GMT
#1118
I've agreed with everything kita has said this game, and it doesn't look like it will be stopping anytime soon. Sheth has a pretty damning resume, and I don't think meapak is as as scummy as sheth has been.

##Vote Liquid`Sheth

I do want to hear from RoL first, it would be a shame if the day went by without real game posts by him. Not his fault.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 02 2012 00:48 GMT
#1123
prphlz is dead sheth. It's 4v1

I do like the idea though of people triggering my ability. In the event that we mislynch twice and I'm the final townie, it will tie the game. I don't think shooting is better then lynching at 3v1, so that would be the only scenario I think it would be useful.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 02 2012 14:22 GMT
#1140
Well, if I don't get killed tonight, mafia effectively can't win unless the last person is a roleblocker. Sheth was a roleblocked, and prphlz had already used his shot, so there is no way there was more then 1 between the last two scum. At best it's 50/50, and if I'm alive we can guarantee there is a roleblocker or that I am scum.

Obviously, sending me a big ole "fuck you" will earn you brownie points the sooner you do it. As to who is scum, I really think it's meapak. I think even chezinu would have some subtle reasoning to claiming RB if he wasn't, and that actually has some sense if he's scum.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 02 2012 20:38 GMT
#1153
On January 03 2012 05:20 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2012 04:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
...........It sounds like something Chezinu would do. Which sucks for us. This means we should ignore facts for analysis because they don't help at all.

That being said, who do you guys think the last scum is? I am doing an analysis now and cleared one person, I believe the other is leaning town.


To be honest RoL, I'd rather hold off while it is night. The last thing we should do is give everyone our reads going into a 2v1 LYLO.


Yeah, but someone will die. A last minute post should do nicely.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 02 2012 21:27 GMT
#1156
On January 03 2012 05:37 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 31 2011 04:22 bumatlarge wrote:
On December 31 2011 03:59 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
On December 31 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote:
I doubt kita is scum. He has had extremely similar play to myself if you disregard the chez era. Sure L, could have been a bus, but if we were both scum, we could have simply unvoted without fear and won the game? If only one of us, then Chez obviously take precedence.

I never hinted at chez being confirmed town at all. Just the oposite. I just feel bad for meapak. He didn't hammer a vote on to L, which seems rather straightforward if there are already 5 townies on L. Anyone not pushing meapak tomorrow needs to share with the class.


This is something that I disagree with. If you all took your votes off, there would have been a no-lynch on l. Then its 5-3 at night, you'll have two KP. However town now KNOWS who the 3 are. I didn't say this earlier, because I was hoping they would do this. So hopefully town has 1-2 shots of their own. So at the end of the night its probably 3-2 town ahead, which leads to a 3-1 town after the lynch and then 2-1, and town wins. Thats with only 1 kp vig shot.

Just pointing out I think your logic is wrong bum, and you pointing that out as logic for why your not mafia is scary to me. Your reads are also a bit weird, why do you say "everyone else" : who cares. I care about each and every one of you. :/


Why would I care who is town? The object of the game is to oust scum, not figure out who is town. If they aren't on my radar, then I really don't see a reason to worry about them.

Hopefully isn't a guaranteed town win. If town had no viable shots or mafia has more then 1 roleblocker, we would have got off scott free. And that doesn't explain how kita and I generated the L lynch. The L lynch would not have happened and you guys would have stuck around on the RoL wagon for the rest of the lynch. I don't think there was much reason to go through all this trouble and then have this conversation if we could have been having a post-game conversation.

This is stupid. It is much easier to get a town read on someone then it is to get a scum read. By knowing who is TOWN you can narrow town your possibilities of who is actually scum. Scum are trying to not look scummy, but generally only that. They don't tend to jump to the other spectrum because that would start harming their win condition.

So there is a huge purpose in recording and acknowledging your town reads, that way you can narrow down the gray area of mafia scumminess.

Anyway bum, its pretty much me and you, which of the other two do you find scummy? One of them has to be hiding behind the hit, but its a tough decision. What do you think?


I'm not certain on anyone right now. Kita has been constantly active this entire game, and reading his posts more, he has quite a few hiccups in his reads. He goes all over the place, calling Sheth, Foolishness, prphlz, BC, then actual scum in L. I think I need to read more into the L lynch to see if mafia were really "Fuck it, vote L", like syllo did as the 5th person on the wagon. Kita made his read on L very clear an hour after I voted L.

On December 29 2011 06:52 kitaman27 wrote:
I'll write something up against L later today.


This is a few hours before anyone even mentions L as a lynch target, and it was after a whole response to Sheth's kita analysis. Kita as scum could have just put his vote on Sheth after calling him scummy, but he decides to push L instead. If the scum team was Kita/L/syllo, I don't understand why kita didn't take the easy way out with pushing sheth which I proabably would have gotten behind or jumping on RoL. It explains sheth being roleblocked, if they feared him shooting Kita, but that's all I can reason out. I believe kita did shoot syllo, though Kita didn't mention that he had a strong read on syllo before the shot. Kita has not been posting scared, and all his actions have a very townie perspective, even though he only started getting results late-game, and then he posted everything I was thinking. I'm gonna say Town.

Meapak/Chezinu has been a rough read, because a relevant part of the game was played by chezinu who I can't really decipher well, and I pride myself in being a good judge of random posters. Meapak's reads thus far in the game have been a claimed shot on syllo (there was no in-thread analysis, but there was only a night cycle for him to do this), and a sheth lynch, which all of us are guilty of. Other then that, I'm not mustering much townie points in his favor.

The abscence of his vote at a lylo scum lynch; a non-refunded shot dual claim on, in my opinion, a less prominent scum; and a random Roleblock claim that has zero reason behind it. Suspicious shifty shit shapes scummy standards.

I just need to review RoL again. I'm still hazy on the roleblock thing and what not. L went ballsdeep on RoL (sexy) the day he got lynched. I think we are basing RoL being confirmed based on his BC hit right? Hmmm. It does seem pretty straightforward if during the night you make me out to be superduper town and then shoot me because you aren't a roleblocker. If there was a scum medic, then that would explain both GM and Foolishness missing their hits. No, I am not content in throwing that in the trashcan.

Mostly I'm certain Kita is town. If he's not he deserves to win. Kita, I think it's gonna be down to you deciding who is scum between Cheazpak and RoL. I'd probably go with Cheeseypak, because RoL being scum does require him to be a scum-vig (or some awful townie vig) and having a scum medic.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 02 2012 21:28 GMT
#1157
I like how I say something like "I'm not certain on anyone" at the beginning of my post, and then rebuke it half-way through THAT SAME POST. META.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 03 2012 03:41 GMT
#1162
Well shit, I have all these logical epiphanies while I'm thinking about this game, but then each time I go to post something about it, I end up hitting a roadblock that ends up with you 3 equaling out with how scummy I think you are. For instance, I think I've established in my previous post that my behavior reads label you scummy to townie in the order.

1. Meapak
2. RoL
3. kitaman

Yet, when I look at the direct information and the possible scum teams and the reasoning behind their actions, I get the opposite result.

1. kitaman
2. Meapak
3. RoL

The reasoning being Kita's hit has the weakest claim. If Kita had been shot instead of prphlz, Meapak's claim would have been 100% accepted. We would have never known kita had shot as well. However if meapak had been shot and kita alive, kita as town would probably be better off not claiming he used his shot to threaten mafia with unknown information, even if he was sure his shot had gone through and meapak's shot refunded. Kita as scum would be in such a weak position against prphlz and RoL, that he might as well claim a shot against anyone and claimed RB. If he had claimed the hit before results, he would be nearly confirmed in my eyes. With this, there is a lot of room for him to be scum. It looks desperate. That said, I still hold him as my top town read. The L lynch look way to spontaneous in scum shoes.

Meapak's absence during the L lynch really get's me when you look at it from scum perspective. L/syllo: "Well we can't control the lynch as well without our 3rd member present, so we will have to push someone as best we can. Ah L is getting hammered, we can't afford to chance all the townies jumping on the same vote. Meapak/chez might not as well vote at all, and we just let L get lynched."

With RoL as the third member, then prphlz is pretty on point, that they don't care who gets lynched, they are just trying to buy town points either way. Then on top of this, this requires RoL to have had a particular scenario play out that is practically out of the question unless you specifically force RoL as scum in your head. L looks much more like he is trying to get rid of a dangerously close to confirmed townie player rather then bussing a teammate who is in such a good position for scum that it would be hard if the RoL lynch got passed through and to pass it off as L brilliantly deciphering the correct scenario. It takes a very estranged mind (bum's) to really consider RoL as scum.

Or maybe I'm fucking up with RoL's position. If he survives the night, I think that is a big topic that needs explaining. Or maybe you guys are fluent in "RoL's alignment"-ese. Fuck thinking my head hurts. My fingers are hitting the backspace more then all the other keys combined.
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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 03 2012 03:42 GMT
#1163
Wow, that's not the opposite result. Lynch meapak I guess lol.
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