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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
If you think that my lack of vote alone makes me scum then you need to broaden your sights a bit. Right now in your scenario, I'm scum and I claim to have shot syllo... to what end? If I'm scum then I already used my shot on prp, but I can't force syllo to die. My only option is to claim RB but wait, I already rb'd sheth. If I had called my shot after the day post and saw syllo had died it would have made a lot more sense because now I have syllo's death to back me up. But I claimed before the deadline. If I'm scum then how do I know that syllo will die, and furthermore, what is my backup if I already rb'd sheth. If syllo doesn't die then I'm forced to claim rb, but then sheth cc's me. Even if I get a mislynch on sheth, when he flips green I've still outed myself. Do you see where the problem is Bum? | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
On January 04 2012 00:06 bumatlarge wrote: Oh, if both you and syllo were alive and scum, and you managed a mislynch on sheth, you would win. 3-2 after night with no vig shots then 2-2, since now it's confirmed to me that there is still a roleblocker. But here's the thing, if syllo and I are both scum, when sheth flips we're both confirmed scum basically you and kita blast us, we can only kill one of you and town wins with two people left. Sure we could hope that town wouldn't be smart enough to shoot us but with the caliber of people left in this game that's not a gamble I think any of us still alive would take. Let's walk through it again. I make my claim (as scum) and syllo lives (remember I have no way of controling syllo's death at this point since I've already shot prplhz). I HAVE to claim rb'd. But the problem is I already rb'd sheth so I KNOW there will be a counter claim. As expected Sheth claims rb'd. Yes I can mislynch sheth but when he flips town I'm basically confirmed as scum along with syllo. The following night Bum and Kita shoot us and it's game over. Now let's look at my actions from a town perspective. When is the optimal time for a townie to claim? Right before the day post. Unlike scum they're not concerned about whether their target lives or dies because if their target doesn't die then they can legitimately claim rb'd and do so without the pressure of lying. I can't keep stating this enough. As scum, it's stupid for me to claim before the day post because I have no control over the outcome. Meanwhile as town I have nothing to fear because regardless of what happens I can tell the truth whereas a scum is basically outing themselves in a situation where they don't have full control over the procedings. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
In terms of real time questioning I'm around right now, I have something at 5pm PST until 9:30pm PST but if you're still awake after that we could talk then as well. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
Also this may not matter much any more but fuck you bum, I hate you so much you're terrible at this game you should seriously go and jump off a building so we never have to play with you again. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
 Kita...Also for those waiting for my RoL analysis, it's on hold until I figure out the hits in a way that's satisfactory to me. At the moment I haven't found a scenario where RoL is scum and the hits line up. If it's not RoL my next best bet would be Bum except that my town oracle (foolishness's filter) called him town :/ | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
So the final mafia is kita. Right off the bat he starts putting soft pressure on Sheth. Super easy target this is like Sheth’s second game, it’s not gonna be hard at all to get a ball rolling against him if you want to. He also brings really soft pressure against Foolishness, BC, and his favorite target of Sheth who he has mentioned three times out of seven posts. Here is the quote: On December 22 2011 00:24 kitaman27 wrote: Foolishness trolling -_- Apparently we're not allowed to touch him because he is too good? I haven't seen any attempt from him to establish himself as a pro-town player. Where is the effort? :/ I find it strange that BC comes in and tells Palmar to step up his game considering he only has one post, while complaining about him discussing neutral topics. He just finished spending three paragraphs describing why RNG is worse than analysis. Of course it is. I was worried Palmar not really pushing his influence on the lynch at first, but he seems to have picked things up. chaoser, would you mind explaining what you think GM is doing? And, GM what are you doing? Finally..... ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xTYrk.jpg) On the surface this is just calling for more activity, however the way it’s done is very fishy. Rather than actively call out these players, he vaguely mentions that they need to post more and does so in a manner that tries to take influence away from them. By this I mean he’s speaking in dismissive terms such as “Apparently we're not allowed to touch him because he is too good” (about foolishness) and “He just finished spending three paragraphs describing why RNG is worse than analysis. Of course it is.” (about BC). Here’s the thing about this post, a townie doesn’t need to subtly take shots, a townie just wants people to post. Also, this whole thing wouldn’t be as significant except that both BC and foolishness flipped town. In that light this looks a lot like a mafia attempt to discreetly discredit two very strong players. In his subsequent posts he continues to call out BC, and Foolishness and Sheth. This pattern continues for the rest of the day until we get to the lynch. At this point, Kita keeps his wording vague. Using phrases such as “I'm leaning scum on GM and uncertain/null on LSB” Kita keeps his reads very muddy and uncertain. If either GM or LSB are lynched and flip town then you certainly aren’t going to be able to associate it with him. This is important in two ways, one because mafia never want to be in the center of attention, and the other is to distance himself from WBG who is one of the pilots of the day one lynch. Kita first votes for GM saying “I know it may look like an OMGUS, but this really isn't the GM town play that I'm used to, so that is where my vote is going for the moment.” With this enourmous vote of confidence (sarcasm) kita finishes this post by once again asking people if they would like to lynch foolishness. With 20 minutes left in the day, kita completes his distancing of himself from a lynch that would have killed a townie either way and votes for foolishness. In his post lynch thoughts, kita comes up with this gem “Chezinu or Foolishness obviously wasn't going to get lynched” -_- dot dot dot, guess who had his vote on foolishness at the end of the day. He then bashes RoL for putting a placeholder vote on chez but if he’s angry about worthless votes then there’s someone a lot closer to home who needs some attention  Now we’re on to the next day, you’d think we’d be ready to hear more about foolishness however Kita punts on this one, “Looking back at his [foolishness’s] past games on day one, they all seem pretty similar, with minimal posting and a bit of trolling regardless of alignment. I'm still learning scum on him based on his general attitude and would probably be willing to lynch him today, but I'm having trouble coming up with a strong case against him from the current set of posts. As for his case against bugs, I'm leaning town on bugs at the moment. “ This is just terrible. Not only do we have continued shots at foolishness’s credibility, we also have kita calling WBG likely town after the LSB debacle. It’s actually not so much the lynch itself that kita is defending WBG against, it’s foolishness’s accusations which have a history of being chillingly accurate. This is actually a pretty big deal right here. Foolishness was a huge threat to the scum team this game, he nailed half of it. Kita has spent the entire game trying to discredit him and here he is directly defending a confirmed scum, and not only that, a scum that foolishness named. The rest of that post is devoted to analyzing prplhz, of which he does a terrible job. One of his points is that prplhz called BC scum but didn’t back up his accusation. This is deliciously ironic. Not only did prplhz do an analysis on someone kita thought was scummy (something kita never did), he accuses prplhz of doing exactly what he did, which was call foolishness and BC scummy and then not vote for them (at least not until 20 minutes to then deadline when it didn’t matter anyway). I just have to quote this next post because of how hypocritical it is: On December 24 2011 23:36 kitaman27 wrote: What exactly has he done so far that "looks exactly like his town play"? Could you be more specific? As for BC, what makes him different than another lurker, say GGQ? So syllo (who is scum) shoots down his idea of lynching prplhz. He then suggests that he’d like to lynch a lurker and BC would be his number one choice. What does kita say? If you all guessed “he says yeah I’ve been calling BC scummy all game long let’s do it” you’re wrong. Instead he says “lol wut about GGQ.” -_-. Here’s what I think happened. Kita isn’t agreeing with syllo just to be on the safe side and it doesn’t appear that they are buddying. Kita read syllo’s post and decided to just deflect the topic about BC so he doesn’t get associated with syllo. This is the only explanation I can think of. A townie who hears someone agree with them generally goes “yeah me too, let’s look into it” a townie doesn’t know the alignment of who they’re talking to, all they know is that someone else thinks they’re right so why not explore this option. But Kita doesn’t do this. He instead casually distances himself with syllo by not fully engaging him. After this debacle kita makes two posts in a row where all he does is ask questions. Then he votes for BC for these reasons: On December 27 2011 13:55 kitaman27 wrote: You're always here for me bum. Really bad reasoning on the vig shot and no evidence that he cares about the town. ##Vote: BloodyC0bbler Let's see if anyone else is willing to hammer. Seriously? He just flat out says that BC made the vig shot. Nothing like “oh he’s lying about the vigi shot, he’s only mentioning it now because it seems like a safe claim.” No arguments like that. Instead he’s gonna lynch him because he made a bad vig shot. That’s just plain pants on head retarded if you’re town, kita admits in his post that BC made the shot sooooo doesn’t that make him a confirmed townie? No one cc’d him. It’s just poor reasoning. A better argument against BC would have been that he’s lying about the vigi shot because that would at least mean there’s a possibility of being BC being scum. However from a scum perspective this slip actually makes sense. Kita knows that BC made the shot and he can truthfully say that it was a stupid shot. He’s forgotten along the way however is that a) BC could be lying about the shot and b) if he’s not then the shot is confirmed. So as a tl;dr there are two problems with his reasoning. One is that he’s attacking BC from a non townie angle. The second is that if he does accept that BC is telling the truth (which according to his post he did) then he’s blatantly voting for someone who is confirmed (at least according to his logic). This next post is really important: On December 28 2011 14:03 kitaman27 wrote: Current Reads: Probable scum team: Foolishness- Not relevant in either the day one or day two lynch. Brings up a single case, but doesn't push it at all. BC- Bad reasoning for the vig shot. Nearly all of his discission has been based on his vig shot, rather than talking about who he suspects as scum. prplhz- See previous post. L- Seems to be discussing a lot of things that aren't very relevant distracting town. Hasn't given us any solid analysis. If not in the top four, the remaining are likely here (I know this is practically the rest of the town but activity has been really awful) Liquid`Sheth syllo Mr.Wiggles GGQ RoL Chezinu Look at his scum team. He’s got his favorite targets of the entire game, but look who else made the list (drum roll fanfare) L! now other than a briefly directed question, Kita has never called out L at all. This is an extremely random scum suspect. What is the motivation for putting L here? I admit that I don’t know how kita thinks, but my bet would be that he felt like he should put one mafia on his list to make it more believable. It’s the same reason syllo made his secondary list. The thing is, none of the town know that L is mafia so putting him there really serves no purpose except it plays into the inherent guilt of scum. It doesn’t matter that we don’t know L is scum, kita knows and in a subconscious attempt to make his list more believable he’ll put in L. It also gives L (and to a lesser extent syllo) something to go back to and quote if Kita gets killed at some point. His next post is defending himself against Sheth. No offense to sheth but his analysis was pretty bad and kita has no trouble knocking it down. However at the very end he promises to write up something on L, how tantalizing… Next up is Kita’s current claim to town fame, his lynch on L. Here’s the thing, he’s not actually the first person to go after L on day 3. Bum is actually the first person to call out L with his very first post of the day. Kita isn’t even the second person to mention L as possible scum, prplhz, and RoL call L scum. Even Syllo beats around the bush saying that “In terms of balance L is probably scum but I don’t think we should kill him today” (paraphrase( and this is the main reason why I killed syllo for posterity sake)). The pressure on L doesn’t stop there, Bum continues to call him out going so far as to flat out say that L is scum. Keep in mind, this has all happened before kita does his analysis on L. Even Sheth manages to call L mafia and since Chez was absent, that’s every player in the game who is not L or Kita who has called L scum or at least hinted at it on day 3. Bum starts the voting on L, everyone in the game has called L scum at least once except for kita. If I’m in the scum QT, it’s pretty obvious from reading the thread that L is lost. It might be possible to force a mislynch but doing so would expose the entire scum team and even though it’s LYLO, there probably aren’t enough role blockers to prevent vigis from destroying you. Your best course of action at this time is to sacrifice L, and better yet, have one of your cleaner member become a key element. This is where Kita comes in. He’s the heroic second vote on L and with a flawless analysis to boot. But of course it’s flawless, L is scum and might have even helped Kita write it, and while Kita may be the second vote on L, he’s the last person to call him scum. Now look at L’s posting. Look who his scum team is. Bum, RoL, and Kita. L knows which way he’s going to flip, why not throw kita’s name in there to give him a little extra town cred as L makes his exit. The rest of the day is pretty boring. Everyone already thinks L is scum, it’s just a matter of people coming around and Syllo desperately trying to cover his ass. L makes a lot of noise and manages to call Kita scum a few more times. So what now? Kita and syllo are on their own. they’ve got a role block and a hit. Who do you hit? The person who is confirmed townie by shooting scum: prplhz. Who do you role block? The only person who’s called kita scum: Sheth. At this point kita and syllo are in good shape. Syllo has never been called out and tomorrow they can probably force a mislynch of Sheth without being obvious thus winning them the game. However I shoot syllo. Suddenly kita is in a jam. Why? Because at this point everyone knows that everyone is a vig. I’ve used my shot, RoL has used his shot, Bum, Sheth, and Kita haven’t used theirs. But as mafia, Kita can’t spare a shot to prove he’s a vig, not having a shot is a HUGE liability. But he got lucky that I shot syllo. It gives him a free out. And since mafia knows the blue role rules he knows he can safely say he lost his shot. Since everyone has claimed at this point except for me and sheth, kita has a wide variety of claims he can make because LSB and GM already proved that multiple of the same role can exist in the game. Kita doesn’t deviate from what I’m assuming the mafia’s plan was. Everyone is suspicious of Sheth so he gets that started. It makes a lot of sense. Sheth played poorly and at this point Kita just wants people dead. With new years and all, the rest of us don’t really complain, probably just hoping sheth is the last scum to avoid a situation like this one we’re in. The case is an easy one an everyone derps along (myself included :/). So Kita got the mislynch. But he can’t kill anyone at night. Regardless of who he kills, attention will come back to him. He could kill Bum, but Bum’s pegged Kita for a townie, same with RoL. If he kills me, when I flip town people will suddenly take a much harder look at his vigi claim. At this point, his safest bet is actually to role block bum and then take the risk of facing three players at MYLO rather than two at LYLO. ##Vote Kitaman27 | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
I've been reading the thread again and I'm feeling very confident that kita is scum at this point. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
Will someone who knows the roles please PM me? I PM'd Ver but I'm waaaay to impatient | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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