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On December 06 2011 20:55 syllogism wrote: Yes, that was inappropriate but his farewell post was quite ridiculous
Maybe he's thinking ahead to future games where he might actually be mafia. Then he can purposely not post and quote himself. It's ingenious!!
If I get killed tonight, I'm going to have to come up with a really good multi-purpose death post as well.
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On December 07 2011 05:16 annul wrote: okay hi people
i just got home from florida civil procedure 4.5 hour final exam. my brain hurts. i dont want to think.
someone tell me what is going on as of like 10 pm yesterday until now cuz i dont wanna bother reading
Congrats on writing your final! How do you feel it went?
A summary of major events occurring between approximately 10 pm EST and now:
- There was a strong bandwagon forming on Hier based on nothing more than the "we need to kill SOMEONE" mentality.
- I finally got to post my analysis on Refallen with a few more lines tacked on denouncing him and attempting to pressure mafia into using more votes.
- Some discussion was still going on but the game was pretty silent.
- Hier flipped Vanilla Town.
- Drazerk claimed Roleblock Immune Medic who is forced to claim Night 1.
- Discussion on the motivation and timeline of vaderseven shooting Soap.
- Discussion on the veracity of Drazerk's claim.
- Discussion on the pros/cons of talking at night.
- Interspersed between these major events are players posting thoughts on each other.
Here are some of my thoughts before I post an in-depth analysis on specific players:
Hier flipping Vanilla Town -
On December 06 2011 14:56 kingjames01 wrote: So... for those of you who thought that flipping Hier would give Town an advantage, what did you learn? Why don't you share your amazing revelations with the rest of us?
Discussion on the motivation and timeline of vaderseven shooting Soap - A simple question: is it normal that the kill order be posted in the thread and not required to be in a PM to the mods?
Talking at night: If you have something important to share with the Town then you better get it into the thread. If you die we'll have more information from your flip and posts than if you took your secrets to the grave with you.
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On December 06 2011 16:52 Drazerk wrote: I CLAIM ROLEBLOCK IMMUNE MEDIC ...who has to claim night one.
Drazerk, how does your role work? Specifically, does it state that you will know if your medic save actually saved your target? Does it say whether your target knows that s/he was saved?
This is important because annul states the following: + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 14:38 annul wrote: apparently someone shot me but it was negated somehow On December 07 2011 14:41 annul wrote: i just asked and was told someone medic'd me. <3.
ok so reds have 3 kp then
annul, what do you mean, you "asked"? Did you ask the mods how you were saved? Is that what you meant?
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Come on guys, take a step back and think about this.
If Palmar was mafia, what was his intention with threatening vaderseven? During the day mafia want Townies to get lynched. They will jump on pre-formed bandwagons. They will drop hints or suggest that someone is mafia with the hopes of getting them lynched. They will keep pressure on Townies if they feel a bandwagon is falling apart. If they have to, they will make up fake analyses as to why certain posts are scumtells.
The ultimate goal during the day is to be able to use their vote.
Palmar's intention was to make vaderseven produce personal notes 13 hours before the lynch deadline! Slow down and think about this critically. How does this fit in with the idea that Palmar is mafia? What do you think was his play?
That vaderseven was lying so that Palmar could start a bandwagon? If vaderseven was lynched and flipped and it turned out that he wasn't mafia, Palmar would be the first target. This scenario does not make any sense. What does make sense is that Palmar was attempting to force vaderseven into a mistake.
Let's all relax for a bit and actually look for real evidence instead of sticking to EASY justifications for voting.
REMEMBER: mafia needs a reason to vote. Stop giving them places to hide! Force them into making analyses and detail their reasoning in order to cast a vote. Pressure for more substantial justifications than, "Uh... he made vaderseven shoot. scumtell!"
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Wait, I'm posting something.
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Consider what I have to say first. Actually, I'll just post this tidbit.
On December 07 2011 18:33 Refallen wrote: If that's the case, and annul is scum, what do you make of his saying mafia has 3kp? Where did the last kp go? Did someone get saved or did Mafia doublestack? I'm assuming that if you got saved as town you should declare it as I feel like that would be helpful for town.
WAIT A MINUTE! DIDN'T YOU SAY THAT YOU'VE NEVER PLAYED BEFORE?
On December 04 2011 17:06 Refallen wrote: Hello! First time at this, let's have a fun game!
How do you know what a "Mafia doublestack" is? Did you discuss doublestacking with your teammates overnight??? MAFIA
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I am not convinced that annul is mafia. In fact, I think it's a false dichotomy to say that either annul is mafia or Palmar is mafia.
Stop giving mafia easy votes! Force them to make fake analyses and the game will get much easier.
Anyway, these are the players who I have been keeping an eye on: Mafia Suspects
- Refallen
- Zephirdd
- Corrupt
- mattchew
I have previously posted my thoughts on Refallen in order to delay Hier's lynch and to force mafia to use extra votes. I will repeat it here for completeness.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 11:11 kingjames01 wrote:I just got home. Bad weather, slow traffic and dinner really screwed up my evening. I read through the last 20 pages or so and I'm going to say that I'm not convinced on either of these two candidates, Hier or Palmar. My impression is that Palmar was attempting to apply pressure and bad things happened. It seems that vaderseven wanted to be a hero and win the game singlehandedly with his gun. Soap flips Red -> Lynch Palmar who would flip Red and vaderseven's name is recorded forever in TL Mafia history. Unfortunately, vaderseven's instincts aren't that great. The case against Hier is to lynch a non-contributing lurker to avoid a non-lynch scenario. I don't know if I can support that. Especially when I have such a strong mafia candidate. Here is my copy and paste from the text that I sent to myself from before: I hinted at it before but I haven't had a chance to post before now. Refallen is mafia. Let's examine his posting history: Refallen's PostsAfter discarding a few inconsequential posts we get to these: In this set of quotes Refallen asks other players to justify their votes without providing his own comments. The purpose is to redirect the focus onto other players while distracting the Town. + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2011 23:33 Refallen wrote:hyshes why are you voting for syllogism? On December 05 2011 02:00 Refallen wrote:redFF why do you say Palmar is acting scummy? These next four excerpts are from the SAME post! + Show Spoiler +On December 05 2011 10:01 Refallen wrote:Show nested quote +Oh, I forgot to confirm.
I read my PM etc before I made any posts once the day had started (just to be clear that I am aware of my role align in all of my posts etc etc). I thought this was weird by vader, wouldn't this be automatically assumed? Not sure what to make of this though, whether it leans him more to a powerrole/mafia or just nothing special. On December 05 2011 10:01 Refallen wrote: I agree with redFF's analysis for the most part, and I especially found it weird that Palmar proposed the no-day lynch, which indicates him to be maybe scum. On December 05 2011 10:01 Refallen wrote:You know, I find this post a bit weird. It sounds like you're trying to get people to vote Palmar... On December 05 2011 10:01 Refallen wrote: Right now I think Corrupt looks pretty scummy but he hasn't really had a chance to speak out and defend himself yet. Still, if day ends now I would vote him to be mafia. More of the same: + Show Spoiler +On December 05 2011 11:43 Refallen wrote: Yes, what prplhz said about VE is what I was thinking as well. On December 05 2011 13:47 Refallen wrote: (Also I find it interesting that the other person who has called out Drazerk is VE, who I think to be slightly suspicious as well) On December 05 2011 14:30 Refallen wrote: I haven't been "jumping on easy votes" at all, I didn't agree with Palmar/Corrupt and said so, and I also laid out my reasoning why I thought Soap was scum. Obviously, I wasn't aware of prior metagame history which makes me think that he isn't so scummy anymore. How many people do you actually suspect, Refallen? Where is your analysis on these players? Why do you spend so much energy redirecting/distracting the Town? By the way, his reasoning as to why he believed that Soap was scum was that: Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 13:35 Refallen wrote: I feel that that was a definite attempt to redirect/distract which seems scummy to me I see, Refallen... By your logic, are you not then mafia? He was one of only 2 people to vote for Soap. In fact, he jumped on that vote as though he needed an excuse to cast his vote. As soon he realized that no bandwagon would form, he needed a reason to retract his vote: + Show Spoiler +On December 05 2011 23:11 Refallen wrote: Also, ##unvote, since from reading Soap's previous game he acted similarly and was town too. We now get to the present and from his more recent posts: Refallen's next few posts are directed at Palmar and vaderseven. He's joined the vote against Hier. My conclusion: Refallen is mafia and anyone he votes, I will not.
Here is an updated analysis: + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 15:40 Refallen wrote:Oh good, so I got back home from school and now I see kingjames is accusing me of mafia, so I want to respond to those allegations a bit. Show nested quote +In this set of quotes Refallen asks other players to justify their votes without providing his own comments. The purpose is to redirect the focus onto other players while distracting the Town. - Hide Spoiler - On December 04 2011 23:33 Refallen wrote:hyshes why are you voting for syllogism?
On December 05 2011 02:00 Refallen wrote:redFF why do you say Palmar is acting scummy? Kingjames posted this and said that it was an attempt by me to redirect/distract the town. That's not true at all; I have not been redirecting votes. What I have been trying to do was ask questions in order to gain more information about people's claims. For example, for the first quote, I noticed hyshes voted for syllogism in the voting thread without posting any reason in this thread, so I wanted him to clarify. Similarly, redFF posted this Show nested quote +We are not even discussing nolynch until much later on in the game. It is the worst thing we can do day 1 because it gives us no information and mafia free kills. end of discussion.
Palmar looks kinda scummy right now.
##Vote Palmar and so I wanted to seek additional clarification about why he was voting for Palmar, which he duly gave. I hardly see how getting more information about people's votes = scum. Again, the next few set of quotes were me trying to give my analysis on players. You stated that I was trying to redirect/distract people, but that's not what I was doing at all. I was actively trying to give my thoughts on players which other people were discussing to be scum. On the contrary, Soap's post was much more of a redirection/distraction in the sense that he stated there was no useful information in 15+ pages of posts, and so decided to random lynch someone? At least, to me, that seemed completely weird. Though maybe I jumped on the wagon too fast. Perhaps I followed annul's vote too fast, but it appeared to me that Soap was clearly scummy, which I later retracted after being told about his past posts. And your claim that this was merely an excuse to retract my vote is quite baffling. In the wake of new information, one should appropriately change his vote. As for the Palmar/V7 thing, again, I was just trying to clarify the situation. I also wanted to try and defend Palmar/V7 because I didn't think they were scum. I joined the vote against Hier because I felt that my most intended target, visceraleyes, would not have been able to get the 13 votes needed, and as some players pointed out earlier, lynching someone lurking>not lynching at all. I hope that addressed your concerns about me being mafia.
To be honest, this doesn't convince me at all. It still appears that you were doing EXACTLY what I said you were, namely, looking for reasons to vote and when bandwagons didn't coalesce, looking for reasons to retract your vote.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 13:42 Refallen wrote: Right now I guess a reasonable course of action is to look at players that the two who died think is suspicious?
This includes:
kingjames (by both syllo and supersoft) Lanaia annul
What are you guy's thoughts on the night's happenings?
This doesn't even make sense. You can't blindly look at a dead Townie's suspect list and then say, "AHA! Mafia!" This post is very typical of an inexperienced mafia. Are you hoping that the Town will eliminate players that are suspicious of you?
+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 18:33 Refallen wrote: If that's the case, and annul is scum, what do you make of his saying mafia has 3kp? Where did the last kp go? Did someone get saved or did Mafia doublestack? I'm assuming that if you got saved as town you should declare it as I feel like that would be helpful for town.
WAIT A MINUTE! DIDN'T YOU SAY THAT YOU'VE NEVER PLAYED BEFORE?
+ Show Spoiler +On December 04 2011 17:06 Refallen wrote: Hello! First time at this, let's have a fun game!
How do you know what a "Mafia doublestack" is? Did you discuss doublestacking with your teammates overnight???
+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 18:46 Refallen wrote: One more question Palmar, what do you think of Drazerk at the moment? I know you thought he was scum earlier in the middle of day 1 (which you never really elaborated on). With his role claim at night and now that Day 2 has arrived, what do you think about him now?
Still doing it... Why don't you do a little bit of legwork on your own, rather than to redirect everyone else's focus?
+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 19:25 Refallen wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 19:15 TruthBringer wrote: I made a decision at the start of this new day that I would give Palmar a second chance to prove his townliness, but as I suspected he would, he started day 2 off being just as worthless as he was on day 1.
Some guardian angels saved him yesterday when he was receiving lots of votes ("let's switch to zero suspicion hier!")
Bring it on, try and save him again without giving yourselves away.
##vote Palmar I completely disagree actually, I've had my misgivings about Palmar but I believe he's been showing himself to be quite pro-town the more he posts. Why do you say that he started day 2 off being worthless Truth? What are your thoughts on his posts on day 2 so far? Also, I've noticed you've been bandwagoning quite a lot. For example, you bandwagoned with kingjames to vote me on day 1 and now you're doing the same on day 2. You look more the scum than Palmar atm Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 18:46 Refallen wrote: One more question Palmar, what do you think of Drazerk at the moment? I know you thought he was scum earlier in the middle of day 1 (which you never really elaborated on). With his role claim at night and now that Day 2 has arrived, what do you think about him now? I think he's useless, and given that I think annul should be the guy we're talking about today I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I cannot be certain of his alignment either way at this moment. Yes, right now I believe annul, maybe kingjames should be the guys we're talking about today too. They need to defend themselves in the thread. On December 08 2011 01:13 Refallen wrote: And yeah Toad, obviously the votes are not set in stone yet. Have to wait till annul comes on and defends himself. At this point in time I feel he's definitely the best lynch now though. Still, we still have a good 36 hours in the day, so that's plenty of time for counter-arguments and more discussion.
Why? Cause dead Townies who CANNOT possibly know our alignments were suspicious? Are you perhaps mafia and you wanted them dead BECAUSE they were suspicious of us? You weren't successful hitting annul due to him being saved and you couldn't kill me directly because I had only denounced you and that would have put a lot of heat on you? Mafia trickery.
Refallen is mafia.
##Vote: Refallen
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Never mind, VisceraEyes is correct. However, I did make a mistake in the Voting Thread... Forgot to bold my vote but I fixed that.
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Toad, are you taking responsibility for the hit then?
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annul, were you required to announce your kill in the thread? Or do you send it in as a PM to the mods?
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To everyone else: I keep asking but no one is answering. Is it normal for a Daytime kill order to be announced in the thread?
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annul and vaderseven, do you get to choose a role once every cycle? Don't give out any specifics that can harm you.
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On December 09 2011 10:34 Toadesstern wrote: Guys, how can we both be mafia? That's just not possible unless you think the vote was massively rigged my mafias. Do you really think people like hyshes, rad, V7, palmar, and so on are mafias? No? Well do you believe he made you guys chose me by some super awesome psychic powers? I don't think so.
Right now I think annul is town for the same reason I think V7 is town.
Actually, he didn't ask people to vote who got to use his shot. He asked if people trusted YOU, specifically.
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On December 09 2011 10:40 Toadesstern wrote: I see no possibility of setting this thing up unless you believe that Annul is scum, I am scum, Rad is Scum and hyshes is scum.
I actually don't think annul is mafia but I could be mistaken. I also don't believe that Palmar is mafia.
This is the update player list now that prplhz has been shot.
Player List: 1. supersoft, Townie 2. prplhz, Townie 3. Refallen 4. Radfield 5. Palmar 6. Erandorr 7. hyshes 8. Zephirdd 9. Drazerk 10. Jackal58 11. sandroba 12. syllogism, Vigilante 13. TruthBringer 14. Toadesstern 15. annul 16. kingjames01 17. Corrupt 18. Soap, Townie 19. Lanaia 20. Risen 21. VisceraEyes 22. vaderseven 23. Mattchew 24. Hier, Townie 25. redFF
From these players, I am still wary of:
Mafia Suspects
- Refallen
- Zephirdd
- Corrupt
- mattchew
I have a few more, but I won't say who they are. I'm watching for any slip-ups though.
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On December 09 2011 10:25 Refallen wrote: I already addressed the doublestack point; come on, that argument is so weak it's not even funny.
You're right. I concede this point. I hadn't read Mafia XLVII so I was unaware of this possibility. However, my case does not rely on that premise.
On December 09 2011 10:25 Refallen wrote:Show nested quote +Why? Cause dead Townies who CANNOT possibly know our alignments were suspicious? Are you perhaps mafia and you wanted them dead BECAUSE they were suspicious of us? You weren't successful hitting annul due to him being saved and you couldn't kill me directly because I had only denounced you and that would have put a lot of heat on you? Mafia trickery.
I don't get this point, can you rephrase it?
My intent here is that you cannot rely on dead Townie's suspicions to find mafia. Many times mafia will kill a Townie PRECISELY because that Townie suspected the wrong person.
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On December 09 2011 11:17 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 10:55 kingjames01 wrote:On December 09 2011 10:25 Refallen wrote: I already addressed the doublestack point; come on, that argument is so weak it's not even funny. You're right. I concede this point. I hadn't read Mafia XLVII so I was unaware of this possibility. However, my case does not rely on that premise. On December 09 2011 10:25 Refallen wrote:Why? Cause dead Townies who CANNOT possibly know our alignments were suspicious? Are you perhaps mafia and you wanted them dead BECAUSE they were suspicious of us? You weren't successful hitting annul due to him being saved and you couldn't kill me directly because I had only denounced you and that would have put a lot of heat on you? Mafia trickery.
I don't get this point, can you rephrase it? My intent here is that you cannot rely on dead Townie's suspicions to find mafia. Many times mafia will kill a Townie PRECISELY because that Townie suspected the wrong person. Why are you here debating something outrageously irrelevant to the current situation. Day 1 you threw your vote away after lurking hardcore, you are doing the exact same thing again. You've popped up at the end of each day making a case on an irrelevant player while barely commenting on any of the goings on of the day. You also continue to talk in generalities. Please step it up.
It's not irrelevant. Just because you believe it to be so doesn't make it so.
I have here a GENUINE mafia candidate who I am voting instead of speculating between players who I actually believe to be Town.
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On December 09 2011 12:21 Refallen wrote: We NEED to lynch someone today, otherwise it'll be lylo really soon. Put your votes on annul and if he flips blue then go ahead and lynch palmar and those with him but we have to lynch someone today.
This is RIDICULOUS!
Translation: "Hey, everyone, we're almost at LYLO so let's accelerate the process! We'll kill a Blue tonight and then when he flips Blue we'll kill Palmar, another Town.
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On December 09 2011 12:27 Refallen wrote: The point is that town is in a very confused and disorganised spot now. We desperately need the lynch to be able to clarify town situation. Right now you, annul, and Palmar are the two main polarising targets; more likely than not, if one of you flips town the other will be scum, and in so doing it will help to clarify the town situation so much if one of you is lynched. If we hold a no lynch today what exactly is our plan for future days? Continue on being in two desperate disorganised camps, while losing 2 townies at the night too? We need to lynch tonight. I'll go so far as to say that even if we lynch you and you flip town annul the info gotten will be so good as to justify it. Plus, there's a very decent chance you'll flip scum.
Just because one is pitted against the other doesn't prove that 1 is Town and the other is mafia. Stop using false dichotomies.
Just come out and admit that you are, in fact, mafia
On December 09 2011 12:30 Refallen wrote: And Matt we have half an hour to get 6 more votes on red or 3 more votes on annul. Yes, red looks scummy. Is it realistic to lynch him tonight? Doubt it. God why did you guys choose to unload this drama so close to day end?
On December 09 2011 12:33 Refallen wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 12:32 Mattchew wrote: anyone on palmar looks really scummy v7 just gave concrete proof hes town Annul is on palmar!
Why are you so desperate to lynch annul? So that you can kill Palmar when annul fllips Blue?
On December 09 2011 12:39 Refallen wrote: Matt if you can find 5 more votes I'll switch
Why would you switch your vote from a player who you are convinced is mafia?
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On December 09 2011 12:45 Refallen wrote: Kingjames that's not what I said at all my point is that the info we get from lynching annul or palmar will be better than no lynching as we can use that info, even if he flips town, to stand a better chance in the following days, as compared to if there is a no lynch + divided town
This doesn't even make sense. annul still has 1 action left to use. You want to kill him before he can use it. Why are you so desperate? Are you afraid that he might find out something about or your scum brothers?
We're heading towards LYLO. It doesn't make sense to kill Town just to see what they flip. Your plan is to flip annul and then flip Palmar. What if they're both Town? Why would you want that?
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