...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 04:07 GMT

#768

We need to lynch every day at this point unless we want to count on the slim chance of a hero medic save. And a medic save just buys us a day of no-lynch at this point. Worth having the confirmed townie over the possibility of another save before he dies.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 04:21 GMT

#773

Also, those probabilities are only if we are completely guessing, which I hope we can do better than :-P

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 04:30 GMT

#775

It would be 100% WIFOM now that we've said it. They could pile on on townie or scum and we would never know the difference.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 04:32 GMT

#776

That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 17:55 GMT

#785

Saying who you protected night two can really only help town. Scum already know who is town. If it is somebody besides me or Ciry...then we have the whole scum team and we win. If it is one of us, then I suppose at least it will help remove any doubt that someone might have still.
Also, I was kinda hoping medic was anyone but you since based on my analysis the previous day/how easy it would have been to lynch you, I was now confident you were town, so anyone else claiming would have given me the full scum team :-P

But, good to know for 100% sure now :-)

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 18:00 GMT

#787

@Bunneh
Everyone in that group of 4 only has one choice on a scum team, so I don't care what their scum team is. Getting input from those 4 is getting 3 poisonous opinions and one valid one, not something I care to be influenced by. You were supposed to answer my request preferably before the night kill, but at least before the medic claim for it to be worth anything. Also, I'll go look more closely now, but I have a feeling you're scum, which means I care even less ;-)

Time to go filter our 4 suspects and see what their interactions are.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 18:03 GMT

#788

@Sermo
You never would have gotten Toad lynched. I was vehemently against it, and Ciry opposed it. Scum is smart enough to know they couldn't get him lynched. Based on what we know now, there were 2 or 3 scum backing it, the medic backing it, and 0 or 1 townies. Your argument is WIFOM.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 18:40 GMT

#789

The main interaction was xsksc starting the day 3 voting for Drem, which nearly got him lynched. If we assume that xsksc had no reason to bus a teammate there, that means our two possible scum teams are:
Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala
Drem, Sermokala, Bunneh

Which means Sermokala and Bunneh would both have to be scum either way.

So...
##Vote sermokala

@Skrammen
Just saying it again in case it gets buried, who you protected night 2 would be useful information.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 19:39 GMT

#793

@Skrammen
Don't forget to vote at some point :-)
As for Sermo and Drem, Drem lightly calls out Hackle once when it looks like he will be mod-killed. Sermo called Drem scum in passing once but never did anything about it or mentioned it again. Neither of them did anything to endanger the life of the other, nor put suspicion on them at a time when there wasn't suspicion already.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 19:48 GMT

#794

And wait a second...hahahahaha, you saved me? No wonder Bunneh put off that post analyzing me, he thought I'd be dead.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 11 2011 22:52 GMT

#797

Either way, from your perspective sermo is 100% scum, so why aren't you voting him?

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 12 2011 03:04 GMT

#799

But protip, we know that of the 4 of us, 3 must be scum right? If you think it's me, despite me doing far more to try and help us than people like sermo, xksccsx, and Drem (who has succeeded pretty well in pushing attention just around him) then by all means go ahead and lose us the game. Or you could do the smart thing and vote for someone who is far more confirmed red than me and make your judgement based on that.

I'm also not the one who spent a day saying "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE STUPID THIS GUY IS OBVIOUSLY RED", and when they flipped green, spent my next few posts telling everyone "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID SHEEP WE LOSE NOW GG"

We all need to agree on a lynch right? At least agree on one you actually know, rather than a half-assed "It all adds up!"

Do we have until tonight or tomorrow night?

Argues he isn't scum.
Knows we need to lynch or we lose.
At the time he last posted there were not enough votes to pass the lynch.
Claims to be unsure of the deadline.
Doesn't vote with us on Sermokala who should essentially be confirmed scum to him before a time he thinks the deadline might be.
MAKES PERFECT SENSE

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 12 2011 22:20 GMT

#803

##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement.

...what?
You don't need to trust my judgement at all, and that is a silly reason to vote for him. Here are the only things that can be argued at this point that would give you a reason to not vote for Sermokala:
1) You think Ciry is scum.
2) You think Skrammen is a liar, and therefore myself, him, or both of us might be scum.
3) You are scum along with Sermokala.

If none of those are true, then Sermokala should be a vote you are fine with. Either because you are town, trust me/Ciry/Skrammen to be town, and therefore the other three are scum, or you are scum and he isn't and you should want him dead anyway. Being hesitant to vote for him and having to "trust [my] judgement" only makes sense if one of the above three is true.

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 13 2011 00:58 GMT

#806

So you think a non-scum confirmed me as town by saving me from being shot night 2? That doesn't make much sense...

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 13 2011 04:41 GMT

#818

GG, wp Ciry.

@Gmarshal
I know he wasn't confirmed townie, but I didn't start doubting him until the last day really, and at that point I figured it was too late :-P
Also, I totally thought the scum team was Sermo, Bunneh, and xsksc...if I lynched the other two first, pretty sure it still would have been a town loss, just with 2 scum dead first :o

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 13 2011 05:00 GMT

#824

Define cleverly encrypted. SHA-512?

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 13 2011 05:24 GMT

#830

If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways.

I was confused when they actually shot someone, as I realized this as well :-P

Until the end the lynches Ciry pushed tended to be one of the two people I was most suspicious of, so I came to trust him as a townie. Combine that with Sermokala's odd statements upon being subbed into the game (like immediately saying he couldn't be scum since no mafia goes inactive, that felt incredibly out of place), as well as repeatedly calling me scum, and that set him up to be the last mislynch for a scum win :-( One of Bunneh's posts was actually the biggest tipoffs to me that Ciry might be scum, but at that point it was too late.
The post:

##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement. It's a vote to at least make it clear I'll be voting with what you think is best regardless.

Considering Ciry started the vote, that post just screamed that 1) You were scum and 2) Ciry might not be town. But 6 hours before the final lynch at lylo...a tad late to realize things :-D

HarbingerOfDoom

United States508 Posts

November 13 2011 08:16 GMT

#836

One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them.

I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.