EPTOr, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day.
Newbie Mini Mafia - Page 5
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Or, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
I've got some hope-based play. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Options as I see it: No medic claim -> we mislynch we lose ~80% of the time as soon as night ends, the other 20% we have to lynch correctly basically every fucking day to win it. Unsure on odds of us lynching correctly today. No medic claim -> we no-lynch, go down to 4v3 tomorrow, hope for the best Medic claim -> we mislynch we lose 100%. Unsure on how much this improves the odds of us lynching correctly today. Medic claim -> we no-lynch, go down to 4v3 tomorrow, hope for the best. Unsure on how much this improves the odds of us lynching correctly vs the no claim option. So the question is...is the info gained going to be worth it? If we are lynching today, I think I'd prefer to get a medic claim. If we aren't, we wait until tomorrow and then if medic is still alive, claim and see what we can do. Lynch today or tomorrow, either way we'll still need every goddamn townie on board to do it. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
| ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
| ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On November 07 2011 11:41 Skrammen wrote: So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention? Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me? | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Town has vote majority the whole game. We lose when we don't have it. Scum is the one trying to achieve a majority. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
If you could elaborate a bit on your change of heart regarding toad that would be appreciated. I am obviously a bit skeptical of it considering it came after the lynch on him fell apart, and was also already partway through the night. (read: You could be scum that decided to shoot him, but to come out in favor of him before doing so) | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Scum are very likely to be willing to bus one at this point as well...they only need us to mislynch one out of 3 for a win... | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Looking back through day 1 and 2 (pre hyshes blow-up), we have Skrammen attacking Drem and voting for him, Zanfada calling out Skrammen as well as voting for him, xsksc voting for him, and Bunneh starting the day 2 voting on him. Obviously myself and Ciryandor also called him out day 1 and both voted for him then. Now, given all that, try building a sensible scum team of 3 players with him on it. Can you do it? I can't. My current recommendation is to not lynch Skrammen. I haven't decided on if there is somebody I think should be lynched today yet. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + And Bunneh, posts mentioning him in some way other than listing him in a vote count or asking why I voted him: + Show Spoiler + So assuming I rule out Harbinger for the time being, we have to go back on what we had prior to the hyshes thing. In my mind it continues to be as follows: 1) Skrammen or Toad. Only 1, but almost certainly one. Otherwise I'll be a monkey's uncle and entirely thrown through a loop. 2) Drem. More to come on that, but he's been semi-active, and some dodgy posts. 3) No idea. Perhaps Chocolate? I'd have thought possibly hackle, but my real guess is that he was a townie who just lost interest from the start. I don't have a real lead on a 3rd at the moment though. I'd like to hear more from xkxdkskd though. [purple]Unknown[/purple] Zanfa xksxksd These are 2 I simply can't place. I don't think either has posted enough to get a particularly good read from, and through my guessing above, one of the 2 has to be scum. In my opinion Zanfa has come off as more scummy to me. He's quietly slipping onto the bandwagons, and reading his posts it almost seems like he's trying to avoid creating any kind of waves that might cause people to focus on him. xkskckxk has been more committed when he has tried to apply pressure, and seems to me just like a bit of a newbie who didn't want to go out on a limb early on, as his posts have increased recently, whereas Zanfa's seem to just stagnate. Food for thought. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
I don't know how new of a suspect you want to consider xsksc. I wanted him dead yesterday (game time, not real days) too. Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are considered about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions. To be fair, and it was brought up before, it's not like anyone has really put pressure on me either. Yeah, it was brought up by me. I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible. Ciry, do you have any alternative scum team possibilities? The only other way I can make one is if they were willing to bus Drem or Skrammen. Also, if we want to no lynch today, I recommend voting in pairs. That is, you vote for someone, and they vote for you. Two town votes on someone would mean the three scum could last minute switch and cause a mislynch and then win with their night shot. That being said, I am also willing to take a chance at lynching the shit out of someone rather than prolonging things. :-D | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are concerned about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions. Wrote considered instead of concerned, because my mind was already further ahead in the sentence. Whee. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Do you have a proposed scum team? | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Remember, 2 town votes on the same person means scum can last minute switch for the mislynch and then if they get their night kill off they win, so nobody follow me on this vote or I'll cut you. Heading out now, not sure if I will be back in time for the deadline...and I don't want to get modkilled, and I am fine with a no-lynch. So... ##Vote Ciryandor No hard feelings, just voting is mandatory :-) Also, pretty sure it is suicide for anyone else to vote on you :-D Remember, 2 town votes on the same person means scum can last minute switch for the mislynch and then if they get their night kill off they win, so nobody follow me on this vote or I'll cut you. Also, unless you are fine with taking the blame for a mislynch if a last-minute switch happens from scum, please spread out to one vote per person. If you feel 100% sure on your vote, then I suppose you can take the chance, but... | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
I hate you all the mafia is going to win. The mafia kill someone tonight they automatically win. Going from 5v3 to 4v3 = town loses? I mean we'll still be in bad shape and we'll need a correct lynch...but we also would have lost with a mislynch today. If you think I am mafia, you are either scum, or completely lost. If you think I am mafia with Skrammen, you can only either have not read the thread, or be dumb. I was among the first to accuse him day one and I put the vote on him to bring him to one vote away from death with a few hours to go before deadline.You people are the dumbest sheep ever. Hod,skrammen, and drem are the mafia. GG wp @Zanfada Ciry/HoD I am little bit suspicious of you two because mafia have been doing really well this game and you two are the best players still alive. I have no good proof of anything but I see this as a major possibility. Mafia are doing well because people haven't posted enough nor well enough to be elevated to the level of being considered townie. Look at the team melee game, it started after ours, had 18 people playing 9 roles, has already ended, and yet has over double the post count of our game. And yet, even that activity was low enough that a parity cop ended up being the saving grace for town. I also see no reason to consider us the best players alive. We are the most openly pro-town and active players. That does not mean we are the best. I don't know what more I can do to prove to you I am town. If you read through this thread and really think I am scum, then there is simply nothing more I can offer. As for Ciry, I obviously believe him to be town, but if he's scum then I am beyond fucked. Also keep in mind, anyone that knows their own role, and is willing to accept Ciry and myself as town, actually has more information than Ciry or myself, and can therefore make a better judgement than we can. The problem, of course, is that nobody else has the trust of town built up enough to eliminate the possibility of them being scum leading us astray. Thus the people leading are also the ones who are the most in the dark.@Ciry How could we be any more screwed than we already are? Either we will go down to 4v3 and it will be lylo, or stay at 5v3 and it will remain mylo. Either way we need every lynch to be right. I'm getting a bit worried that Sermokala might be hyshes 2.0 :-/ I also couldn't help but notice that only Bunneh seems to care to address this post of mine: I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
| ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
| ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
If we lynch scum tomorrow we're still in a shitty position, it just means we don't necessarily lose. Right now I'd put the odds of a town win at between 5% and 20%. If we hit scum tomorrow, I think it goes up to 15-35%, if we don't obviously we lose. Of course, that is with the assumption that Ciry is town. If he isn't, then I put our odds at 0%. As for being labeled inactive, I'd consider the majority of the players in this game largely inactive. If you wanted to help your case as town and wanted to encourage useful/positive discussion, posting a thorough explanation of your scum list would help. Helps limit the time spent filtering each player on it and reading through for interactions. | ||
|
HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Medic, roleclaim. Once that happens we have myself, Ciry, and the medic as essentially confirmed townies, leaving us with 3 scum among 4 players. If we can't hit scum with those odds combined with our reads, then goddamn do we deserve to lose hard. If scum counterclaims and we are not sure which one is lying...then we have 2 scum among 3 players to pick from and can ignore the medic situation. Then if scum wants to kill the medic, the only way to do so is to sacrifice their player that counter claimed. Let's lynch some scum. | ||
| ||
