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HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 02:16 GMT
#624
Holy fuck looking at the list of jumpers makes this look bad, but something tells me we don't have time for another switch, please let this be a mafia bussing after seeing the resistance to the Toad voting *crosses fingers*
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 02:31 GMT
#628
You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.>

Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 02:35 GMT
#630
Skrammen, I have minimal confidence. Nobody wanted my original target though. :-( I think we're pretty boned. If he doesn't flip red, and scum successfully kills tonight, I think I'd be willing to concede if the rest of town agrees with it. (Can we do that?) Although if Ciry, Toad, and I are all alive still maybe we'll have a shot. Lynch everyone that isn't us ftw :-D
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 02:36 GMT
#631
I meant that sermokala accused me, which didn't win him any points in my book, not you.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 02:48 GMT
#633
This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 03:08 GMT
#636
I'm pretty sure I've seen scum concede before...is town allowed to concede? If so, what's the procedure?

Depending on who is alive tomorrow (and whether or not I am), I think conceding may offer approximately identical odds for us as playing it out -_-
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 03:36 GMT
#639
You would have been vote number 5, so as long as we could have gotten one more we would have lynched Drem. I wasn't pushing him too hard, but was certainly willing to lynch him (as evidenced by my vote on him).

What are your thoughts on Zanfada, Bunneh, xsksc, and Sermokala? Any of them you would like to see lynched?
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 07:23 GMT
#642
Doing a bit of re-reading, and yeah, we could have gotten a drem lynch off I am pretty sure...damn :-/

I also wonder if I was wrong in not floating xsksc as an option to switch to, you had him third on your list earlier today, and I think support from the two of us may have been enough, or at the very least might have given us more information in terms of who resists such a push.

Here's my rundown on everyone:
Ciry - I'm just going to go ahead and consider him confirmed townie. If he is somehow scum, he can safely endgame me as the odds of something coming up to get me to vote against him are rather minimal.

Toad - Nearly confirmed townie for me. At the very least he is clearly willing to follow me and Ciry in voting...so if he is scum willing to follow us and bus scum-buddies in the process, then at the very least he isn't very dangerous for now.

Zanfada - Not as solid for me, but definitely leaning town. Has stirred up discussion, was not afraid to step up early with his pressure vote, play is largely consistent with how he played as town last game. Again, seems at least somewhat willing to follow me/Ciry, which means he is less dangerous, even if he is scum.

Bunneh - Very slight town leaning. He has been oddly elusive in terms of receiving pressure from others though. Depending on the night kill, could easily move back out of town-leaning territory.

Drem - Poor Drem. I don't have much to say on him that hasn't already been said. The most townie thing he has going for him is that nobody seems willing to defend him, and everyone seems to be fine with him ending up dead. I'm still split on whether he is scum that they are aware they might have to bus, or town. Upon reviewing his day 3 activities though...I might be willing to switch him with Bunneh in my town to scum lineup. Hmm...

Sermokala - Hasn't been here very long, but still managed to need a spoiler, how about that? + Show Spoiler +
Seems scummy to me, but I didn't make any push for him today as I didn't believe there was enough posted by him yet to give us any leads if he flips red, nor enough posts to make a solid case against him. These posts largely sum up my thoughts on him so far:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558&currentpage=26#518
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558&currentpage=29#577
His cases made so far have been questionable to say the least. Also, wtf is this about? Is this actually supposed to be a defense of any kind?
They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive
He has been dropping down my list pretty fast since he first piped up.

Also, mostly unrelated, but a closer rereading made me lol a little at this, said by Sermokala:
I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole.
When considered with this post of Chocolate's:
##Vote toadesstern
sermo's reasoning is very good
he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game

Skrammen - You get a spoiler! + Show Spoiler +
His day 1 activities were very sketchy, and his defense questionable at best. Since then he has shaped up a good deal. Here he is talking about Hyshes.
If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them.
Sounds like a pretty townie thing to say, and I don't know if scum would have thought to slip it in there, considering scum knew what Hyshes's flip would be. Very minor town cred for that statement. Overall, his early scumminess with his later slight towniness has pretty much balanced out to a null read for me. Being one of 4 people without at least a slight town leaning from me does not give you great odds of being clean. Hell, even if the 3 scum are amongst the 5 I think are least townie, not very good odds of being clean.

Xsksc - This man also earns himself a spoiler. + Show Spoiler +
My short summary from earlier:
The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by.

Now to add to it. From him:
I voted skrammen day 1 because a vote on Zanfada would have been a wasted vote in that situation.

If he voted on Zanfada or on Toad, the two people he had called out earlier, he would have made them tied in votes with Skrammen. He is correct in that doing so would probably have increased the odds of a no-lynch, so I'll consider him mostly absolved here, but not entirely. I hadn't double checked the timing of his vote when I posted that.
Something I found rather amusing, after I clearly poke him and indicate I have some suspicions of him by posting this:
Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.

The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc.
He seems to wake the fuck up, making sure to include a pressure vote and a number of questions for Drem in his post answering them. He also posts this as the reason for his vote: You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation? And then when I vote him, he seems appalled that I don't have a good explanation posted with it.
Also, I don't think I've been lurking or posting filler. Every day so far I've kept you up to date with my FoS list, reads etc. Sure I don't spam as much as toad for example, but I'm letting you guys know what I think.
He has 3 instances where he has gone in excess of 23 hours without making a post since the game has started. Interestingly, his reads have gone basically unchanged since: November 03 2011 17:40 He has only changed his number 3 scum from: 3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle to: 3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps.
Considering Hyshes was dead at that point, he clearly had to change it...and he changes it to nothing certain at all.
I'm not claiming to be 100% on him by any means, as he is largely a null-read for me, but at a time when we are down to 8 excluding myself, I'm at least leaning town on 4, and there are 3 scum left to find...well, I think you know where I'm going with this


Obviously who gets shot at a stage of the game with so few players left could change a lot of things, and posting this increases the risk of scum shooting as high up my townie list as they dare, but I want to work out as much as possible with Ciry during this night in case one of us ends up dead tomorrow. I'm not sure if scum is shooting for the medic, or taking their chances elsewhere, but at this point I think town needs to play with basically everything out in the open to have a shot at this. (Note, medic, this does not mean you should claim during the night, that'd be dumb and would get you shot) We can't risk another mislynch, so we need as much coordination as possible to avoid scum influence.

So, Ciry, thoughts? Anyone else that would like to chime in is obviously welcome to, as I have definitely said at least something about everyone.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 18:32 GMT
#650
Bunneh, I really like your spelling of xsksc. It changes every time it seems :-P

I'm tempted to just RNG my bottom 4 or 5 and go with some hope based play. Questions/comments/concerns?
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 18:52 GMT
#651
@Toad
Yeah, after the vote switches we got I was increasingly unsure of lynching chocolate, but our only other option at that point was a no-lynch. If we had enough people still on/enough time I would have preferred to try to switch over again, but alas, that's in the past and cannot be undone.

RIP Chocolate :-(
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 07 2011 19:31 GMT
#655
@all
Assuming scum doesn't get their hit blocked tonight, we will need every town vote to get a lynch without scum help.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 00:43 GMT
#658
@Sermokala
So would that make your scum list: Me, Toad, Ciryandor?
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 01:34 GMT
#661
I got Ciryandor because we've clearly been trying to coordinate in the thread. Also, you know, all the me, him, and Toad considering each other as townies as stated in the thread as well. (To be fair, Toad seems to have the slightest suspicion of Ciry) Or do you think he is just completely fooled by both of us?

Also, I can't tell if you are trolling or just scum right now. Or horribly confused.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 03:35 GMT
#663
Saw that coming :-(

Are you done being silly now Sermokala?
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 04:06 GMT
#666
@Drem
Remember the night without a kill? They can only shoot so far up the townie ladder without a high chance of being stopped by a medic.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 04:18 GMT
#667
On November 07 2011 10:18 kitaman27 wrote:
Day 3 Update

Toadesstern

sermokala
IMABUNNEH
Chocolate
Skrammen
Drem903

Drem903
xsksc
Toadesstern
Zanfada
HarbingerOfDoom

Now let's see...2 scum on Toad, 1 on Drem, or 3 scum on Toad? Hmm...
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 04:31 GMT
#670
Day One Update
Chocolate
Skrammen

Zanfada
hyshes
Drem903

Skrammen
Chocolate
Ciryandor
Toadesstern
xsksc
Zanfada
HarbingerOfDoom

Toadesstern
hacklebeast (now sermokala)
IMABUNNEH
risk.nuke


Or, if you prefer to think of me and Ciry as town:
+ Show Spoiler +
Day One Update
Chocolate
Skrammen

Zanfada
hyshes
Drem903

Skrammen
Chocolate
Ciryandor
Toadesstern
xsksc
Zanfada
HarbingerOfDoom

Toadesstern
hacklebeast (now sermokala)
IMABUNNEH
risk.nuke
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 04:35 GMT
#671
So Ciry...should medic claim now? Would that be wise? Worst case scenario scum counter claims, they both say who they protected each night and we take a guess on which is the liar?
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 04:46 GMT
#673
Medic
You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, you are notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
HarbingerOfDoom
Profile Joined December 2010
United States508 Posts
November 08 2011 04:50 GMT
#676
And my thinking is, if we mislynch, we lose if he can't make a save. Scum will shoot for a town left that is not me or you, they should hit ezpz, if they aim for medic they hit him every time, everyone else...how can the medic be sure who to save?

If he claims, we have another confirmed townie in the medic.
If there is a counter-claim, if we really can't decide, we no lynch. We then take what info we can from the night kill, and go from there in a lynch of lose situation.
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