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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903 These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
Ok i'm going for it. ##vote Toadesstern | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
##vote Toadesstern | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 03:14 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Sorry for the three posts in a row, I've kinda been responding to things I think I should respond to as I read the thread. ....What? I'm really going to need a much more thorough analysis of how you think Ciryandor is scum. Additionally, I want to know why in the hell you think either Ciryandor or Toad could be scum if Drem is, considering Ciryandor called out Drem's posts as something to keep an eye on, and now we have Toad being the first vote of the day and placing it on Drem. I really want to hear how this makes the slightest bit of sense to you. First of all, i don't see toads vote as a legit one. If i want to distance myself from someone but still don't want to risk him getting lynched, i would vote for him very early in the day cycle. Very little chance that that lynch is going to happen. I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me. It was to close to the deadline to not call it out. There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 04:15 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Risk and I both made one post putting a small amount of suspicion on each other, does that mean we're scum buddies? Oh wait! He flipped green! But seriously hyshes, you're going to have to make a much more solid case than that if you want me to believe those 3 are scum. Since I am not on your list of scum, I assume you'd want to get me voting in line with you, so please prove it by giving some actual analysis. As for this: So he either should have voted him or explicitly typed FOS? He clearly stated in his voting post his preferred order was Skrammen over Drem, and he can't vote for both. I wasn't aware you need to type out FOS to let people know you are suspicious of someone, I thought saying "hey, this person has done a ton of suspicious shit which I have listed and explained here" is much stronger than saying nothing but a line or two and FOS on whoever. These three are the only ones that make sense to me after the risk mafia kill. That kill was so strange that there must be something strange going on. I reread the thread twice now, this is the only explanation i could figure out. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated. Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little. On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 07:14 Toadesstern wrote: Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 07:21 Toadesstern wrote: Yeah and that's the reason why I changed my mind and started believing you. The thing that's weird right now still is this post: I still think it's wrong and so does harb. Probably a couple other guys too. I'm just not sure why you posted it :p I posted that bc i thought it was obvious. I think it had to be stated. Eventhough i don't like hackle's inactivity, i really dislike how you 3 are posting. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
##Vote Drem903 Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2? Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 15:08 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: I was thinking of waiting until I have some more info, but the more I look at it the more confident I am. Hyshes is SCUM Why do I say this? To start, let's begin with some simple facts: 1) The only people with knowledge of this game not contained within this thread are scum, or a detective. 2) People with the same knowledge, reading the same thread, should come to similar conclusions, and these conclusions should converge as time passes and information accumulates. And then Hyshes drops this on us: Well what in the fuck is that? Ciry is near the top of most people's town lists. Now we have Hyshes listing him as scum? Then there is Toad, this guy is very active, answers anything asked of his immediately, and his posting method seems to be make the post, and double post if he needs to edit it. That carefree and transparent posting manner seems pretty townie to me. Given that besides Hyshes only Drem and Skrammen have called any suspicion on Toad so far today, and even they do not put him on top of their lists. I think it is clear at least most people do not see Toad as very scummy right now. As for Drem...well, he is actually a target for some. Perhaps he was included to try to give some more credibility to this list? Also, given this: + Show Spoiler + Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics. So how could his list make sense? I think we have three options here: 1) He is a dt, checked Ciry, and Ciry came up red. We are not even guaranteed to have a dt, and if we did I would find it absurd that they would check Ciry first. I will be generous and give this 1% probability. 2) His reading comprehension is awful at best, and he therefore managed to come to a conclusion very different from anyone else. This is a newbie game, and his country listed on his profile isn't an english speaking one, so I will again be very generous, and give this a 9% chance. 3) He is scum and his list makes sense because he knows who really is scum, and because he wants to do as much as possible to discredit and cast suspicion on townies. I give this the remaining 90% probability. So, just from that it is looking very likely to me that Hyshes is scum, but let's go into some more detail. I will present my arguments in order of what I think their strength is, with the strongest ones first. What about his overall presence in the game? + Show Spoiler + He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity: @IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off. Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread. So who is left on the list of non-poster? A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself.Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything) Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something.btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game? Once again a filler post.And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum. Next, let's investigate his issues regarding the vote deadline: + Show Spoiler + I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it) that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet. How about his lovely analysis to support his position? + Show Spoiler + Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little. On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3. You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out". I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes. His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise. Now, lets take a look at his day 1 voting: + Show Spoiler + Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him. Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh. And now his day 2 voting: + Show Spoiler + ##Unvote Toadesstern ##Vote Drem903 Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad. Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well. In conclusion, Hyshes is SCUM, lynch him. ##Vote Hyshes Yeah sure, lynch me. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
Lynch me red: wohoo! scum kill green/blue: please promise me that you will lynch the obvious ones | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
##vote hyshes | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3.. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 22:52 Toadesstern wrote: if you flip green we know exactly nothing except for the fact that you've pulled an emo here. It's not like harbs red because he went for you. If that'd true EVERYONE has to be red in here because everyone once accused someone (I guess) If you flip red we know why you did it. No emo here, just not up for your shitty logic. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 04 2011 02:22 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Well, I was expecting to see some form of defense when I came back, not some dramatic martyring. Also, Hyshes, I regret to inform you that from the rules: 4. You may not vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. ##unvote hyshes | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 04 2011 02:41 Toadesstern wrote: that unvote isn't chaning a thing. You still tried (don't know if you knew about the rule or not) and if we now just stop voting for you we will establish a game were everyone who's accused to be mafia can just vote for himself, unvote himself later on and therefore we got to unvote you too? That's just still not makeing sense at all. I forgot about that rule, thats all. | ||
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