EPTAs mentioned a lot of people got a space in between those # and vote and copy&pasted. Also a lot of people only wrote unvote while unvote Player is required. At least that's the reason why zanys switch to edwin wasn't counted I think. So I'm not sure if joshs voting is correct, too, because he only has unvote without my name.
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VI - Page 2
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
As mentioned a lot of people got a space in between those # and vote and copy&pasted. Also a lot of people only wrote unvote while unvote Player is required. At least that's the reason why zanys switch to edwin wasn't counted I think. So I'm not sure if joshs voting is correct, too, because he only has unvote without my name. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 30 2011 00:00 Ciryandor wrote: Why not zany? What do you think of him anyway, given that he's the only real read in terms of voting we have really got? And do explain the ratios? I will vote on zany as well if we get something there, no problem, still got 11 hours to discuss this :p I think right now both zany and josh are equally "scummy" because both made no sense with what they said earlier. Zanys still lacking the answer but changed his vote, although with a wrong format. I still got the feeling this could have been a mistake and sure if he were the only one I would be all over him because that'd be all we got and we could not hold back. However we got that post from josh as well. But yeah, both sound silly. Either way, if there's not going to be a good damn explanation by those two I'm going to try to get both lynched, no matter in what order unless there's something that really screams scum from someone else. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 30 2011 01:22 Ciryandor wrote: Well, then I think we ought to really pressure zany for dodging the whole issue then. Still, from reading Josh's post, unless he replies to my questioning his talk on probabilties, I think he may know something we don't. ##Vote zany_001 exactly my though. So I think he's just being stupid right here, switching to zany as well ##UNVOTE JoshKirby ##VOTE zany_001 For the probabilities: Yeah that sounds legit but really isn't of course we get a higher chance to get a safe or a good dt check if few townies are alive and a lot scum are. Hell if there'd be 5 townies alive and 3 scum it would be a 3 out of 8 chance to check a scum and a 1 out of 5 chance to get a nice safe. Still you probably won't suggest to kill townies just to get better safe/check rates. Surely that's not what you're saying, but it's what it comes down to if you think through what you just said. Also, we don't even know if we got a medic and/or a dt, at least I don't. I know what you want to say with your math and the math behind it may be right, but it's not helping town to get a good safe/check ratio because if town is in that situation the game is either over right away or is 1 day away from being over. The only reason to vote for someone that is active in this thread is a scum read. Also note that "active" is not to be meant as "posting at all", but as "posting quite a bit", while lurking is more of a "yeah posted a bit but not really something" and being absend is having no posts at all. So we should first of all try to get a red. Obviously it's hard to get a good read on day1, especially with so few discussions (active or lurking) If that's not going to happen we probably should go after someone who we think might be scum. Could be wrong, but still a chance (active or lurking). If that's not going to happen we probably should go and try to kill a lurker, the chances to hit a red are way higher that way (only lurking) If that's not going to happen a push on someone for information might still get us something. That's basicly my thought process right here. I don't think the read on zany or you is clear but it's something, so right now I'm going for the 2nd scenario while you are going for something thats on the bottom of my list. You're trying to get a lynch for information although I'm active. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Obviously mafia won't vote for zany if he's red => we don't get 7 However if zany turns out to be green mafia won't have a problem lynching him => we might get 7 if the rest gets active within 60 mins.  | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I think I'll have internet and probably will check once or twice today out of curiosity but won't post something. However pms are fine (from our two hosts) if somethings happening and I will check them a couple of times, just not f5-ing all night. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Rayne is mafia, which was obvious and mentioned before. Nothing new here but nice to get a "lynch" for free. Zane is still kinda weird but our best guess so far. I thought his excuse might be correct but with raynes post and rayne flipping red zane pretty much is mafia. Not as sure as rayne was but still our best guess. Rayne did not vote for him. I don't know why, maybe he was scared that we might get enough people to lynch zane although we had quite an activity problem. If Zane was green, rayne would not have had a problem voting and lynching him. After all it would be another townie kill for free for mafia. So we need to see this scum dead. There is just no point in not wanting zane to die as a mafia unless he's red aswell, no matter what zane is trying to make you think. That's 2 almost 100% safe red calls here. I'm not sure who's the third, could be a couple of guys but zane is our best call right now and we need everyone to vote him and stop being inactive! | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
##VOTE zany_001 Not gonna lie, there needs to be a miracle to make me stop voting for zany | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Kinda funny. If that was to be true I would be sabotating the game, as you stated. Probably you too if that's right because you're telling everyone I'm mafia. In that case the two of us will be modkilled. If you're trying to get a strange defence here that is a complete lie what you said is not true and therefore neither you nore I will be modkilled. Let's see if we both get modkilled, shall we? :p I mean, it is a funny and clever thought of you since you're not getting out of this alive, but it got that one little flaw I just poined out, still you got some balls to go for it :p | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
That's why I did not want to lynch you on day1 but everyone else went for you and I had to join. But since raynes scum which was clear since day1 you got to be scum too, at least about 95% while the other 5% are occur if raynes a mafia that does not want to kill a townie. Oh and I would have made everyone lynch him today and forget about you if it wasn't for the modkill | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I would like to know why Thnikkaman47 and FranzP did not vote for zany on day1. Clearly he and rayne are mafia. Rayne didn't vote for him to safe him because he was scared we could get a majority and therefore we could have lynched zany. What was your reasoning behind NOT voting for zany. You know, not voting for a mafia looks kinda mafia but obviously there's only three so I'd like to hear what you've got to say. And the rest of you guys, start talking I don't want mafia to have an easy time lurking since every townie is lurking as well. We got this game if we get zany lynched today and you guys start posting. If this goes on the lynch on day3 could become a townlynch if everyones hiding makeing it hard to get a proper read. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Zany has obviously not voted and won't vote for him so it's up to Thnikkaman47, jish17 or FranzP to get us one more vote. Jish probably isn't mafia as he pushed for rayne as well so I guess we can count him as town and unless he went inactive will give us the needed vote. Thnikkaman and FranzP both seem to be scummy while only one can be mafia. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Just a last note. We probably don't have a medic. If we had one Ciryandor wouldn't be dead, so don't count on that one. So it's either a dt for us who checked someone green (really?...) and therefore is not giving any clues or mafia's got a roleblocker and we're not having a single blue, or the last possibility: We do have a dt but he's not posting at all to cover and not get killed by mafia until he got a red check and mafia's just 3 goons. Given that noone said he got roleblocked last night I'm guessing we got a lurking dt in town. If that's correct get a check on either Thnikkaman47 or FranzP and we win after the zany lynch. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Really thought the third's going to be either thnikkaman47 or FranzP. Would be awesome if we could get an update on page 1 :p That's kinda stupid. Mafia probably will kill someone tonight until we got a hero medic. That way it is 2 town 1 mafia and we have to get a 100% sure mafia lynch or we're dead. Just saying :p | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Medic try to save who you think is the most likely to get killed by mafia. DT try to stay low, don't let you get killed by mafia and just check the guy and kill him on day3. Don't know which of those 2 is what we got but we one should be right :p Medic or DT would have flipped blue instead of green right? | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/6l8Hq.jpg) Ok let's see what we can get out of a thread that has literally nothing... going to change vote-formates, to not screw with hosts strg+f. First of all: All four of us voted for edwin on day 1 I think (did not check that actually), switched to zany on day 1.5 and voted for zany on day 2. So nothing there to be found. I'm going to make 3 major spoilers. One for each of you to get things organized. First spoiler is stuff about zanfa, second one stuff about josh, third one is stuff about jish. Easy isn't it? -------------Zanfa------ + Show Spoiler + 1) On September 30 2011 08:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh, and i'm going for Zanfada tonight.. *vote* Zanfada confirmed mafia voted for zanfada. Could be nothing as he should know that we're not going to get a lynch on Zanfada but I don't think he got the balls to post that if zanfas was red all along. Could be a tell that zanfada is green but noting confirmed. 2) On September 29 2011 04:58 Zanfada wrote: from that post it would seem that Toadesstern cares about the game yet he hasn't posted at all. It seems like he is either not caring/playing or not contributing/lurkering *vote* Toadesstern *vote* Toadesstern Totally legit. I haven't made a single post at that point of time. An awesome analysis and really pro town. 3) On September 30 2011 04:17 Zanfada wrote: *unvote*: Toadesstern *vote*: zany_001 my vote for Toadesstern was to get him join us, which he has. I mentioned zany earlier about his half assed clue thing which did strike as an odd post more fluff then anything (scum tell.) Then he joins the kill Edwin group for no real reason other then to kill anyone. The kill edwin group grew rather fast and I think it was mostly mafia trying to blend in and pick off an easy kill without drawing to much attention. Zany still hasnt responded to anything really. So I would like to hear thoughts ans suspicions on what has been going on in the game so far. Till then he has my vote. Again, could be a smart mafia seeing that his vote on zany is not going to matter but this really looks like town. The zany vote could have happened on day1 with a bit luck and a possible-modkill getting active on the last voting day. So if he's mafia he got balls of steel and showed us an awesome game :p 4) On September 28 2011 03:30 Zanfada wrote: Hi all, This is my first time playing mafia but I have played werewolf a few times so I am not a total newb. @raynpelikoneet I think there is an advantage personally playing with someone before because you have actually interacted and not read the manuscript of what was said. However we are getting sidetracked. zany implies there are clues in a half assed way, either he is a stupid town wanting to get us to start talking about nonexistent clues or he is a mafia looking to side track us with stupid nonexistent clues. I am going to be watching him more closely. Again a nice post from Zanfa. He says he's going to have an eye on zany and that could easily mean someone else is wondering what zany's doing as well. So another post that sounds like town from zanfa. -------------Josh----- + Show Spoiler + 1) I still got a grudge on Josh for trying to get a lynch on me with this stupid math thingy which was wrong (except for the part "let's kill someone who's not getting modkilled). As far as I am concerned I looked preeeeeetty much town at that point, like a 90% sure town and still he went for me for the sake of getting a lynch. He could easily go for zany in the first place (as we had a vote on him already I think) or established something on his own, like I did with my edwin vote to get at least a bit of information out of voting behaviors rather than the actual lynch itself as it was a modkill-lynch. So he still looks kind of scummy to me. I totally ignored it since going for zany+rayne was way easier and afterwards just going for whoever did not vote for them (thnika and franzp) sounded way more scummy. So he's back on my radar for that post. 2) Jish and Josh both were the last to switch to zany on day1. That could be a mafia waiting to see how many votes he got and decide whether it's safe to vote zany or not. -------------Jish----- + Show Spoiler + 1) On September 30 2011 10:06 jish17 wrote: You rebel scum! *vote* zany_001 Actually I don't know what that was meant to be. When he said "you rebel scum" was he talking about zany because of his vote or was he talking about raynes scumslip just one post above him? If it was meant to be a "rayne, you rebel scum" it sounds green, if it was directed towards zany it's nothing, really. 2) Jish and Josh both were the last to switch to zany on day1. That could be a mafia waiting to see how many votes he got and decide whether it's safe to vote zany or not. 3) On October 02 2011 11:56 jish17 wrote: Pretty obvious... ##Vote: zany_001 jish being last to vote for zany. Also sounds kinda frustrated in my opinion, could be about how stupid this game is as well... (see what I did here ? :p ) 4) On September 27 2011 22:55 zany_001 wrote: Assuming this game has clues (the OP seems to imply it may or may not have clues?)There are 17 red words in the day post, and one of the players is jish17. *vote* jish17 hopefully some other clues are found, I doubt i'm very good at clue analysis. Probably one of the more important quotes. It's not about the clue thing but about his vote! He voted for jish. Now we all know zany turned out to be red and mafia wants town to get a town-lynch. Why would he (a confirmed mafia!) push for jish when he's actually red? That either makes no sense or it was a brilliant set up by mafia. You know, zany could have known all along there where no clues, once gm told him there are no clues -> he was sure noone would follow him on a vote -> he can switch np and have his mafia buddy preeeeetty safed for all game unless he screwes up. Not gonna lie, I'm going with the easier explanation, the first one which means jish looks to be town. So that's about it. One of us is going to die tonight unless we got the hero-medic and no dt. I want you at least to read it and make up your mind. In my opnion Zanfa and I am town 99%. That leaves jish and josh. All I got from josh is that one math post that sounds stupid. Jish on the other hand has multiple things that make him look a little scummy. I'm not sure if I'm right here but I think it's all we got here. If I die tonight and flip green you guys know what I said was an honest interpretation and no mafia shit trying to get you vote one someone else. If you want to know if I'm town or mafia before I flip, analyse what I said so far... I'm not going to do that for you as well. Knowing what I just posted I might as well make a last statement about the activity. Although it was very low all the way through. Jish turned out to post the fewest out of us 4. Now I did a hell lot of posts to get you guys talking which pretty much failed. Josh and zanfa both did a couple of posts, while zanfas turned out to be really good and joshs ... well I don't know could have been helpful it just turned out he wanted to lynch me and maybe that's why I don't like those because I know for sure they're wrong but maybe it makes sense from another perspective. Well and jish just posted pretty much nothing except his votes. Both zanfas and josh votes turned out to be a vote + explanation, at least a couple of lines. Now jishs posts most times (it's kinda hard to find any at all) turned out to be a one-liner or a vote plus a one-liner. According to my search that's actually all he ever said:+ Show Spoiler + On September 30 2011 10:06 jish17 wrote: You rebel scum! ##Vote: zany_001 On October 02 2011 11:56 jish17 wrote: Pretty obvious... ##Vote: zany_001 So my final conclusion: - I know I am town ( :p ) - I think Zanfa is town 99% and I'm not 100% sure about those other 2 guys - Jish got one read that makes him look pretty green to me. And since it's from a dead mafia that's a pretty heavy one. But he looks way more scummy with everything else and lurking hardcore. - Josh looks a little scummy to me but got nothing that really makes him look green. Guess one of those 2 is our medic/dt while the other guy is mafia and it's up to the two guys remaining to try and figure it out where my analysis was wrong or incomplete. Zanfa totally could be our medic/dt as well since noone really postet a lot but in that scenario it's either jishs townplay or joshs townplay that ended up hurting town the most. So guys go ahead and claim detective or medic like 1 hour before the night/day change with a list of what you did night 1 and night 2! If you're a medic I want to know why the fuck you did not protect cyri on night1. And no, "I was roleblocked" is not a plausible excuse because you would have had to tell us you got roleblocked that day. You could easily have made it look like you're a VT who got roleblocked out of the blue (or perhaps red :p ). I'm going to bed now. Lets hope we see tomorrow again :p | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
GL for town from now on, we still got this in our/your hands so make it work! | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On October 06 2011 13:18 zany_001 wrote: Yuss gg all, sorta. I should note my role claiming mafia was intentional and calculated; it was most probable that I would be lynched anyway (assuming active town lol) so I decide to go out and take toad with me. Rayn pulling out like that messed things up and I thought it would have been over without risky attempts like mine; plus me calling mafia drew suspicion away from josh, what little there was. I got to agree here about the mafia claiming. He was dead anyway and nothing he could have said could have changed that. Maybe he should not have said it but it was not MEANT to be "cheating" ruining a game because I believe him when he says that he thoughts he's 99% dead. And even if there's only a 10% chance to get a townie as well, that's probably better than a 99% death IMO. So I'd like you to think about that as well gm. Also I think going after someone else here would have worked out better. If zany did that with jish instead of me, town oulde have been screwed preeeeetty much. On the josh lurking thing. I don't know, I had him voted on day1 so I was pretty sure he was mafia. At least I got a gut feeling he is. After those modkills I pmed wherebugs (a coach) to discuss my night actions and asked him what he thinks about my analysis. I basicly told him I don't know about zany, I am 90% sure about raynes and if rayne's red zany got to be red as well. For the 3rd mafia it's either josh, franzp (for not voting) or thnika (not voting, too). My mistake that I did not realize that those 2 where inactive at that point. Once they both flipped I was something like 70% sure abotu josh being red, which was the reason I checked him on night 2. Sadly I wasn't able to make you guys think that way too, neither on day1 nore on day 3 (day 2 was all about raynes and zany). Actually my conclusion in my final post said something like "I'm 99% sure zanfa is green, as well as me and about the two others I'm not sure. I'd say jish 30% mafa and josh 70%mafia" but reread it, thought from what the post is about it sounds actually the other way around (70%jish, 30% josh) and made it a 50/50. But yeah nothing "sure", just a gut feeling. Next time I'll listen to it :p Oh and about my checks. holy wtf, no I dod not check zanfa why would I even do that :p Raynes on night 1 who turned out to be red. Who would have thought after his claim! Josh on night 2 who turned out to be red. Even got the confirmation he's red and I asked sinani why he told me :p Btw about that math-post thingy, thought it's trivial. You stated that lynching a town, which is the worstcase for us makes dt and medic better because of 3/8 instead of 3/9 while having the same amount of days left. Well that's the mistake, the dayes change by 0,5 (that way we could have made one mislynch for example I think). Mafia can only kill one guy per night so a 3/9 chance isn't only a 3/9 chance but most likely a 3/9 and a 3/8 next day together, while a 3/8 is only a 3/8 Also around that post josh made a couple of turn arounds. First he said we need a lynch for town, telling people a modkill lynch is not going to help, next post he said a no-lynch probably would be the best for town. That sounded pretty strange, but giving it is a beginners game I thought you maybe did just change your mind. Was that change after we switched to zany? Because if it was after that switch we all made a mistake by not finding that quote in time :p I found those 2 quotes and thought they're looking odd, but didn't check at which time they were posted so I did not inclue them in my final post because it could have been just nothing, | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Thought that might make zanfa vote for josh instead but it didn't Maybe I just thought his posts are scumslips because I knew he is scum, don't know. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
| ||
