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On September 17 2011 11:01 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2011 05:38 tnkted wrote:
Just tell them jackal, the info is pro-town and if you're killed it confirms my alignment anyway which mafia does not want. Vice versa if you're killed. Why don't you tell us? This sudden claim stuff is hella shady to me. It came at a really strange time of day, and it's not making any sense yet other than Jackal "confirming" tnkted as town. I find it weird that it's been put out there that tnkted is town but there's almost no explanation as for why or how. If you actually are town you'll get shot for sure (which is just dumb to me, idk why you would do that) and if you're not it makes sense as a gambit to get another mislynch today and get us closer to mylo.
I think this lowers their suspicion level to me. here is why:
Note when Jackal posted his assertion that tntked was town for the first time. Before the night post. Before that point a lot of us were talking about tntked and his behavior the previous day. The best reason I can see of this is that jackal thought the chances were good that he was going to die that night, so he posted information he had somehow obtain that tntked was town, in hopes that his death, flipping green/blue, and his post would prevent another mislynch on tntked today. The more complicated explination is that he is mafia, he fabricates a post about his scumbuddie tntked being town, and posts it in hopes the above argument is assumed, and a vig doesnt hit him or tnkted making him look guilty, or tntked isnt lynched anyway, exposing jackal as a liar, and now the scum is down by 2. I do not see any senario that would occur if only one of tntked or jackal was scum. in my eyes both have to either be town, or scum. Occam's Razor dictates that the first senario (with them both being town) is more simple, and therefore more likely. However, I await your explanation as to what in the hell is going on.
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On September 17 2011 11:16 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2011 11:11 GreYMisT wrote:On September 17 2011 11:01 wherebugsgo wrote:On September 17 2011 05:38 tnkted wrote:
Just tell them jackal, the info is pro-town and if you're killed it confirms my alignment anyway which mafia does not want. Vice versa if you're killed. Why don't you tell us? This sudden claim stuff is hella shady to me. It came at a really strange time of day, and it's not making any sense yet other than Jackal "confirming" tnkted as town. I find it weird that it's been put out there that tnkted is town but there's almost no explanation as for why or how. If you actually are town you'll get shot for sure (which is just dumb to me, idk why you would do that) and if you're not it makes sense as a gambit to get another mislynch today and get us closer to mylo. I think this lowers their suspicion level to me. here is why: Note when Jackal posted his assertion that tntked was town for the first time. Before the night post. Before that point a lot of us were talking about tntked and his behavior the previous day. The best reason I can see of this is that jackal thought the chances were good that he was going to die that night, so he posted information he had somehow obtain that tntked was town, in hopes that his death, flipping green/blue, and his post would prevent another mislynch on tntked today. The more complicated explination is that he is mafia, he fabricates a post about his scumbuddie tntked being town, and posts it in hopes the above argument is assumed, and a vig doesnt hit him or tnkted making him look guilty, or tntked isnt lynched anyway, exposing jackal as a liar, and now the scum is down by 2. I do not see any senario that would occur if only one of tntked or jackal was scum. in my eyes both have to either be town, or scum. Occam's Razor dictates that the first senario (with them both being town) is more simple, and therefore more likely. However, I await your explanation as to what in the hell is going on. I don't think you can tell either way. Either they're both townies, and Jackal knows something about tnkted so he's trying to prevent him from getting lynched. Or they're both mafia making a gambit to gain towncred. Look how fast half the town believed tnkted. What's weird to me is that tnkted seems to know how Jackal knows he is town. This makes very little sense to me, since certainly tnkted would back up Jackal when Jackal is defending him, but then why would tnkted push Jackal to explain it, in a way that seems as if tnkted already knows HOW Jackal knows? It just doesn't add up to me.
Hmmm I did not think about that. The only way that i could think up is the fact that maybe a mason-like role exists in the game. This also comes up a bit empty because how would jackal hold more pieces to the puzzle.
Tntked, any info is better for us than no info at all. Please explain what to your knowledge is going on here.
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I think i figured it out actually through extensive research, not 100% sure yet though. I will wait for jackal to let us in on what's actually up.
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@Jackal I think i know what pony you are, of course that doesn't give me any info on your role other than what you have provided. But moving on...
It appears we have two choices at this point in time. Lynch Jackal to confirm tntked, with the risk of losing a small PM circle (along with whatever else jackal has), Or we accept this claim for now and move onto scumhunting until we learn more information. I am in favor of the latter at the moment.
So I would like to direct your attention to
Nisani201
*insert picture of gasping ponies*
Basically my reasoning stems from this post right here.
On September 16 2011 23:35 Nisani201 wrote:
##Vote: tnkted
Up until this point I essentially had a null read on Nisani, and I was not looking closely at what he was doing/saying, at least not with my magnifying glass. This post made me curious, curious enough to bust out said magnifying glass and search the thread for some analysis on nishani's play. this is all that has been posted that I could find
On September 15 2011 10:34 DroneAllDay wrote:well damn I decided to read the thread more (I'll be honest, i skimmed cuz i was afraid the vote was coming soon and I figured that i needed to vote then) filtering Curu's posts and not looking at them at 6:30 A.M. well that vote was how you say really REALLY + Show Spoiler + dumb Sorry about that, thankfully my classes are gonna be lighter for now so I won't be doing this again. So with that, reading(NOTE: NOT SKIMMING) this time Nisani has too many posts with too little content (some of nothing useful and others of agreement) Show nested quote +On September 12 2011 10:39 Nisani201 wrote:
I don't have a favorite pony, because I love ALL of the ponies in Ponyville! Show nested quote +On September 13 2011 01:01 Nisani201 wrote:
god damnit you guys
talk about the GODDAMN MAFIA that's going to kill us all do horrible things to us! Show nested quote +On September 13 2011 08:28 Nisani201 wrote:On September 13 2011 08:25 Jackal58 wrote:Did you guys know diphallia is a common disorder amongst the sub order Eunectes of constrictors? nowai Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 14:37 Nisani201 wrote:
Me: I believe in pressuring lurkers, but not lynching them.
Curu: WTF man, you want to lynch lurkers, but you're not!!! OMG SCUM HERPADERP and wherebugsgo found this which I find interesting Show nested quote +On September 15 2011 00:57 Nisani201 wrote:
Also, I might not be as active during this portion of day becauSBe Minecraft 1.8 is out, and I will probably have a lot of homework. You had a problem with me being inactive (BECAUSE I WAS SLEEPING) but you are planning on being less active during the most important part of the day? The day ends in like 3 hours. Also, you even said you wanted to hear from Forumite but you knew he is in another time zone and that's why you knew he wouldn't respond till later. So why did it never cross your mind that I could be sleeping as well? Nice double standards, scum. and so with that ##UNVOTE##Vote:Nisani201
Not the best analysis, honestly just posting a link to his filter would have been more effecient.
With this lack of analysis, nisani must have been really active and contributing right?
well i decided to go read his filter in context and...
nothing.
Nisani has managed to slip under most every single radar. I plan to remedy that.
The focal point of Nisani's current activity is around the time when Sinani was in danger of getting lynched. It is important to note, however, that Nisani does very little actual defending of Sinani, while making it look like he is. Let me elaborate.
On September 15 2011 02:52 Nisani201 wrote:
I am going to Unvote: Curu. I feel like we were all just arguing while scum watched and laughed. IMO there would have been more people in the conversation if one of us were scum.
I will move my vote over to wherebugsgo, because he was perfectly active until we started arguing. He has posted no opinions on it because he doesn't feel the need to; he can afford for any of us to die. He simply comments on the same things that Curu has been bringing up, which is "Sinani played horribly in Ace's game, so we should lynch him."
##Vote: wherebugsgo
On September 14 2011 12:26 Nisani201 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 12:16 Curu wrote:What do I see upon entering this game? sinani trolling. Discussing game mechanics and the meaning of the word majority instead of anything relevant. What do I see after he is called out? sinani voting with a completely nonsensical reason for the person who voted him. Like what the hell is this: On September 14 2011 11:16 sinani206 wrote:
This is a pressure vote, to prompt an answer to my question, "Why lynch a lurker if we have a perfectly good other lynch candidate?"
Perfectly good other lynch candidate? He hasn't even mentioned another player until chainsaw voting on dreamflower. This post is very much bullshit. So much so, that I will be putting my vote on you. This kind of behavior is anti-town. ##Vote: Curu
Note how in these posts he establishes a connection to sinani, he clearly does not want him lynched and believes him to be town. In fact, he even presents WBG and curu as alternative targets. Also notice, however, that he never really tries to get people to vote for WBG or Curu because he knew he could get sinani to die. Because of said connection, and Sinani's green flip, Nisani has not been looked at that much today, because we associated their connection as two townies defending each other.
I propose this assumption is incorrect. I think that Nisani is Scum, and tried his very best to look like he was defending sinani, when in reality he was really doing nothing of the sort.
So when day 2 rolls around, he picks up on our newest target, tntked, and thinks he can get a wagon rolling right off the bat. but at what point has nisani ever expressed interest in voting tntked? thats right, never.
##Vote Nisani201
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tnkted, how do you feel about my analysis on nisani?
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Jackal, what do you feel is the best course of action? lynch you to confirm tntked? because we need to get to scumhunting as soon as possible.
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You said you have the "item" right? are you aware of what happens to the item in the event of your death?
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On September 18 2011 04:50 Curu wrote:
GreyMisT can you explain your reasoning? If you believe their claim, you should believe they are Townies. Yet you say you feel like WBG knows what's going on, which following your belief would mean he knows they're Townies, but he's not being honest about it and trying to get them lynched? So we should back off him too?
Say what?
I believe you mixxed together my and forumite's post directly above you
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Forum, what is your pick for a good lynch target today, if we are to assume that you, WBG, tntked, and jackal are all town for the moment.
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Those forum breadcrumbs still take place before Jackal even mentioned having an element, not even mentioning the fact that they were in halves. That makes it look less like a gamble, and more like we have even less idea of whats going on.
Cyber_Cheese, welcome to a truely messed up situation. care to weigh in? what do you think of the current events at the moment, and who do you feel is our best lynch today?
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"Honesty" is an element of harmony
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As far as i can tell, the 6 elements of harmony probably all exist in this game. Judging from flavor posts and from the discussion taking place at the moment, It is probable that the elements are released in stages, not all at once. if they were realeased all at once then why don't we have more claims from townies about their elements? We really don't know.
As far as I can see the day started out alright, but then went to shit mega fast. This is, at least for me, due to the fact that people without a piece of an element have no idea what is going on. Therefor i think anymore discussion regarding the potential mechanics of this game need to be kept to a minimum. All we can do for now is trust that those townies with the pieces don't act stupid with them. That is until we gain more info from a flip, DT check, or the day/night posts.
We got an extra 15 hours guys, but we need to be talking about lynch targets. At the moment I have noticed a conspicuous absense of dreamflower. She was not the most active day1, but she did have detailed posts. I'd like her to weigh in.
I'm keeping my vote on Nisani for the reasons i stated earlier, and until he explains the hell out of this.
On September 18 2011 10:29 Nisani201 wrote:
I dunno, all I can do is confirm that Forumite does indeed have an Element of Harmony, and it was obtained on D1.
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So you are in a PM circle with Forumite, who claims to be linked to and trusts WBG, and yet you still vote and push a case against WBG.
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Gah, I'm about tired of the entire landscape of the game changing every 5 minutes.
##Unvote Nisani201
His past behavior makes more sense in the context of recent events.
Really need Dream,Sevyrn, and Cyber to contribute a bit more, we need to turn today's discussion back to scum hunting. ~24 hours left by my count.
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Lucidity, how do you explain the fact that WBG gave his piece to tntked? and that tntked confirmed that he received said piece?
between the two major canidates, Im going to have to go for lucidity, his argument for WBG is based almost completely off meta from 1 game where he was blue, and a tracker at that. The play you described as a "tunnelwhore extrodinare" fits the play for a tracker, but not that for other town aligned roles he might get this game.
On top of that there is this post
On September 14 2011 19:55 Lucidity wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 00:18 dreamflower wrote:
At the moment, I am more in favor of lynching an inactive, because town lurkers still don't help the town if they're not sharing their thoughts or giving us information and Mafia lurkers are, well, Mafia. I am currently unconvinced by the cases so far, as they tend to be based on post-by-post analyses of posts made on Day 1, when most of us were unsure of what we should be discussing or trying to accomplish. Generally, I tend to be skeptical of post-by-post analysis, as they often are just nitpicking at small contradictions or confusing phrases in posts that perhaps the poster just didn't think through clearly and they seem to assume that Mafia will give themselves away a little in every post, which they usually don't. Right now, the cases made against Forumite and Greymist strike me as being more like townies accusing townies, so I'm hesitant to vote for a lynch based on those cases.
I did think it was a little odd that Forumite asked for a DT check on Jackal. But it seems like Jackal is a pretty well-known player, so I suppose it makes sense that he is subject to the scrutiny that well-known players tend to receive, like Ver or Ace. Jackal himself also seems quieter than I expected, though perhaps that is only because it is so early in the game.
So, I would much prefer lynching a lurker right now. The lurkers that stand out most to me are Sevryn and DroneAllDay. Of these two, the latter has specifically stated that he is very new and will be lurking a lot, which on one hand could be an honest statement of confusion but on the other hand could be a Mafia trying to look like a clueless newbie. The former, Sevryn, has made only a few game-related, non-pony-discussing posts, most regarding the Day post and how it'll give us more to talk about. Yet, he himself hasn't said anything substantial after the Day post except "Oh yay Day post. So, what are the Elements of Harmony?" I would very much like to hear from these two players sometime soon. I also wouldn't mind hearing about everyone's thoughts regarding the merits and flaws of lynching inactives versus lynching someone in particular. Essentially this post served two purposes: - Introducing the idea of really attempting to lynch a lurker today. Getting a feel for our willingness to follow such a strategy with the last sentence.
- Discrediting the cases brought forward so far.
Lynching lurkers should be a last resort. Going after lurkers (and by lurkers she actually means INACTIVES) allows scum to not offer any opinions and simply sheep onto an easy vote. This is not an ideal situation to say the least. She discredits the cases against Forumite and Greymist, by simply saying that she doesn't like post by post analysis and that she thinks townies are accusing townies. Could you explain why you think townies are accusing townies dreamflower? You offer no reason to doubt the case based on actual discussion points. Simply "oh I'm unconvinced". Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 00:25 dreamflower wrote:
Bah. And now that I posted, Sevryn has posted and even voted for Forumite. -_- I'm still a little cautious about the case on Forumite, as people seem to be basing it mostly on that one post and making him defend his ideas. I agree that his defense has also been inept, but I don't think it necessarily means he is Mafia.
For now, I guess I will just vote for DroneAllDay. And learn to refresh the page a lot better while I'm posting.
##vote DroneAllDay Note the displeasure when she sees that someone else voted Forumite. So instead of waiting for other's opinions on the LaL strategy she proposed, she goes ahead with it to try and divert attention away from real scum hunting by voting for DroneAllDay. Look at the reasoning in that post. She is visibly upset with another vote on Forumite.
She thinks his defense is inept.
But somehow he does not deserve any attention.
Instead she "guesses" she'll vote for DroneAllDay. Point? She's defending Forumite with no real reasoning. She puts her vote on an inactive, not a lurker. Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 02:23 dreamflower wrote:On September 14 2011 00:32 Jackal58 wrote:
Dreamflower lynching inactives is counter productive. Inactives are most likely going to be mod killed. Lurkers on the other hand are a different animal. There is a difference between the two. When you said inactives I'm pretty sure you were still referring to lurkers. Ah, true. Yes, I was referring to lurkers when I said inactives. My apologies. A lot of my thinking still dates back to the olden days before inactivity modkills or the Ban List, so please excuse me if I phrase things oddly like that. I also agree about OriginalName, whom I'm a little annoyed about not noticing myself. I also noticed that DroneAllDay's statement of Mafia newness came very soon after he signed up and long before roles were sent out, so that pretty much rules out his being a Mafia trying to masquerade as a newbie. My mistake there. OriginalName's one contribution to the thread after the Day post has been to call Forumite's post "a huge pile of fluff," but after that he hasn't said anything else at all. That does look more like lurking than outright inactivity.To add my own opinion on the merits of lynching lurkers, I think it is a good idea early on, when we don't have much information to work with. I agree that lynching lurkers doesn't yield much information afterward, but I don't think going after "real" targets always does either. The people who argue for a townie to be lynched or vote for their lynch are not necessarily Mafia themselves. So, I don't think either approach can give us much in the way of useful information. The part highlighted in red essentially explains why ON is where her vote should be. DroneAllDay is an inactive, which she doesn't want to go for. She wants lurkers, and ON is one. Yet her vote stays on DroneAllDay. She dedicates an entire paragraph to explaining why DAD is a bad vote, and then doesn't change it. Then she goes on to try and push the LaL objective. We shouldn't be lynching for information. DEFINITELY not on Day 1. We should be hunting scum. Lynching lurkers (inactives) is not scum hunting. It doesn't give us any information, which you think is important? Yet you still advocate lynching lurkers. Going after "real" targets actually DOES offer us information ito voting patterns, defenses e t c . Not that, that is our first priority, but it blows your LaL policy out of the water. tl;dr Defends Forumite and greymist with no reasoning. Pushes anti-town objective of lynching inactives instead of scum hunting. (Note that she really means inactives when she says lurkers, even though she indicated otherwise. Her posts make that clear enough.)
What happened to your case on Dreamflower lucidity? if she was playing this bad for the town, you would think you would carry over your pressure into day2, but it has been absent.
This, coupled with forumite's points above are why im going for lucidity
##Vote Lucidity
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Im not on you because you are not voting for an inactive player. at the beginning of this day we did not know that dream would be innactive, and yet we heard nothing from you about her at all.
And also:
On September 18 2011 18:32 Lucidity wrote:
##Vote wherebugsgo
I'll post my reasoning later when I get home. His angar like in the post above is one of the reasons.
Am I the only one not in a PM circle? Fuck that shit.
Also, dreamflower is on course to get modkilled?
His anger is one of the reasons you are voting for him.
Interesting.
On September 19 2011 06:33 Lucidity wrote:
Are you fucking with me?
She has been completely inactive. I haven't seen scum being modkilled before so I put it on hold. I'm pretty sure the replacement is for her. She has had scummy ideas wrt lurkers and no lynch, but WBG is much more scummy imo.
You're willing to lynch me because I'm not going after an inactive player? That's terrible.
How am I more scummy than WBG? Explain this to me please. WBG's role as tracker only explains his tunneling of one candidate on his last day. The rest of his play was not influenced by that. WBG voted for tnkted AND jackal while he apparently believed their claim. Explain this to me. WBG forgot when he received the element of harmony. Explain this to me. !@$^&@#^ WBG repeatedly pointed out how scummy sinani was, but "never supported the lynch". EXPLAIN THIS TO ME.
Forumite SKIMMED MY ANALYSIS. SKIMMED. What the fuck is that. This is retarded.
If you're town, how can you possibly think your contribution is passable greymist?
[QUOTE]On September 19 2011 06:43 Lucidity wrote:
[QUOTE]On September 19 2011 06:05 Forumite wrote:
You say it was a bait, I just see a FoS without any substance behind it, after getting WBG more or less confirmed, at least in my eyes. Scum would want to discredit any correct attempt to confirm Town, which makes pushing WBG at that time scummy. Of course I think you look scummy for it.
I´ve read your case on WBG, skimmed it at least.
Him forgetting when he got his piece, does it make him more scum? N1 makes less sense, as it must have come from Sinani, as Sinani wouldn´t have kept his piece when he was getting lynched and WBG didn´t look like the best one to send it to. The thing is, that when he got it doesn´t make him Scum, wether or not he lied about it might, if for example another Scum got it and that Scum told him the wrong day. Is that what you think?
What looks weird is him pushing for more info from Jackal, even though he allready knew what they were talking about. He should have accepted earlier. That´s the part of your case on him I can agree with, at least before he gave up his piece. [/QUOTE]
No substance? Top of page 38. !#&($^*@^#(%@#&%*!@%#&^%
Why would you think I'm trying to discredit a "confirmed townie" in your eyes WHEN YOU DIDN"T TRUST HIM AT THE TIME? That doesn't add up.
I'm completely amazed.
Perhaps Forumite is WBG's scumbuddy after all.
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EBWOP: formating error
Im not on you because you are not voting for an inactive player. at the beginning of this day we did not know that dream would be innactive, and yet we heard nothing from you about her at all.
And also:
On September 18 2011 18:32 Lucidity wrote:
##Vote wherebugsgo
I'll post my reasoning later when I get home. His angar like in the post above is one of the reasons.
Am I the only one not in a PM circle? Fuck that shit.
Also, dreamflower is on course to get modkilled?
His anger is one of the reasons you are voting for him.
Interesting.
On September 19 2011 06:33 Lucidity wrote:
Are you fucking with me?
She has been completely inactive. I haven't seen scum being modkilled before so I put it on hold. I'm pretty sure the replacement is for her. She has had scummy ideas wrt lurkers and no lynch, but WBG is much more scummy imo.
You're willing to lynch me because I'm not going after an inactive player? That's terrible.
How am I more scummy than WBG? Explain this to me please. WBG's role as tracker only explains his tunneling of one candidate on his last day. The rest of his play was not influenced by that. WBG voted for tnkted AND jackal while he apparently believed their claim. Explain this to me. WBG forgot when he received the element of harmony. Explain this to me. !@$^&@#^ WBG repeatedly pointed out how scummy sinani was, but "never supported the lynch". EXPLAIN THIS TO ME.
Forumite SKIMMED MY ANALYSIS. SKIMMED. What the fuck is that. This is retarded.
If you're town, how can you possibly think your contribution is passable greymist?[/quote]
On September 19 2011 06:43 Lucidity wrote: Show nested quote +On September 19 2011 06:05 Forumite wrote:
You say it was a bait, I just see a FoS without any substance behind it, after getting WBG more or less confirmed, at least in my eyes. Scum would want to discredit any correct attempt to confirm Town, which makes pushing WBG at that time scummy. Of course I think you look scummy for it.
I´ve read your case on WBG, skimmed it at least.
Him forgetting when he got his piece, does it make him more scum? N1 makes less sense, as it must have come from Sinani, as Sinani wouldn´t have kept his piece when he was getting lynched and WBG didn´t look like the best one to send it to. The thing is, that when he got it doesn´t make him Scum, wether or not he lied about it might, if for example another Scum got it and that Scum told him the wrong day. Is that what you think?
What looks weird is him pushing for more info from Jackal, even though he allready knew what they were talking about. He should have accepted earlier. That´s the part of your case on him I can agree with, at least before he gave up his piece. No substance? Top of page 38. !#&($^*@^#(%@#&%*!@%#&^% Why would you think I'm trying to discredit a "confirmed townie" in your eyes WHEN YOU DIDN"T TRUST HIM AT THE TIME? That doesn't add up. I'm completely amazed. Perhaps Forumite is WBG's scumbuddy after all.
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On September 19 2011 06:49 Jackal58 wrote:
I'm thinking Lucidity is probably town. I think he's wrong but right now I'm thinking he's probably town.
Sevryn, Curu and Cyber_Cheese need some love though.
##VOTE: Sevryn
What makes him seem scummy to you?
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I will go take a look at sevryn again, the problem is we dont have much info on him, at least in regards to where he stands on the current events.
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EPT
