TL Mafia XLIV

On July 22 2011 18:34 Palmar wrote:
lol, I can see why people say you're good Ace, you somehow convinced half the thread that a random lynch on day 1 is a good idea?

Like, I've played 8 mafia games, 5 of them we've lynched scum or 3rd party on day 1. That's far higher than 25%.

Is this just some clever ploy to start a discussion or try to figure out who is going to be the scummy white knight who trashes your plan?

btw, Killing ace day1 is stupid, just lynch him day 2 because the mafia will shoot him if he's not part of their team.

On July 22 2011 21:26 Palmar wrote:
your mother.

But it's still interesting.

Ace proposes terrible plan, Jacinto and VE don't like it, DragonReborn actually likes it. Like.. would scum actually take the chance? The lynch isn't really 25% chance because the mafia can co-ordinate their votes, if they so please, so I think what DragonReborn did was stupid, but probably not scummy.

On July 23 2011 03:15 Palmar wrote:
Ace's argument is basically revolved around this sentence.



This is brilliant, from this sentence, Ace pulls two things that simply aren't true.

point a) he says I claim to speak for town.

This is incorrect, I say this in a general way "Looking at any given mafia game from the perspective of the town players" would've been more accurate, but I assumed that people wouldn't try to twist things that aren't there.

and point b) he says that I'm throwing around false facts, again, just not true.

If people actually bother to read the sentence, you can see I specifically say "and judging by the 8 games that I have played". Any statistician will tell you the sample size is too small to really mean anything, but it's all I have, so I throw it out there. Feel free to provide more statistics.

So, Ace is being guilty of exactly the thing that he has accused me of, namely putting words in people's mouth. Sure, I felt after initially reading the thread that there was more support for the RL plan than there actually was. And I wrote the post on DR without actually checking if he had explicitly suggested we RL, while in truth he had simply said he'd be fine with it.

Now, that this is out of the way, I really want people to take a look at the list that DR posted, it really, really is something that strikes me as very odd.

And yes town, this is Ace leading a bad lynch, I'm not still sure if it's because he is scum and this is the best thing he could come up with, or if it's because he simply didn't read/understand my posts.

On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote:
And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn:




His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar.

Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens:




LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you.

I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day.

Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so.

Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it.

Vote Sevryn.

On August 23 2011 07:17 BrownBear wrote:
k, xtfftc:




This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't).



Ok, fair enough, I'm sure you'll come back later in the day cycle to see how the discussion is panning out and see if you're opinion needs changing...



Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Also he and supersoft get in a small catfight over "please vote lists" which is completely inconsequential, so I'm gonna ignore it.




A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten.

I approve of the apology to supersoft tho. Good sportsmanship there, keep it up!



Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.)




This is "The Big Slip" that everyone keeps talking about. He explains it away as "town kills = kills by town" later, but... ehhh, lets look at it more.

The way I think he meant it is, he wanted to use our lynch vote to hit someone else, then let Sevryn get modkilled to take out the maximum number of people that day. This brings us to ye olde "Double Vote Conundrum" from back when double votes were standard in games. Thing about DVs is, sometimes they nail us 2 mafia and we are happy. Sometimes they nail us a mafia and a town, and we're like "ok, cool, I guess." Most of the time, we lynch two town and basically give mafia a free extra kill. In a situation where we have confirmed scum (like a DT check or something), then this can be an alright thing to use. In our case on day 1, the other suspicious players were me (not scum), DropBear (probably not scum), Palmar kinda (not scum), and Rayzor (no clue). This is NOT a situation where we want to kill an extra person - we'd argue a bunch, probably settle on one of the 4 people above (most likely Rayzor, given how he almost got switched onto), and then... what? We'd have possibly 2 town dead for nothing, scum still gets to kill at night, we're one day closer to MYLO than we would have been.

Someone's gonna say "But BrownBear, Sevryn was town! How dare you say an extra lynch would be a waste!" Yes, NOW that we know sevryn was town, we should have lynched someone else. DId we know sevryn was town at the time? No. The only person I saw who straight-up said Sev was town was Palmar, and I'm suspecting he just said that cause he was tunneled in on me and wanted everyone else to switch to me. Most other people either thought he was scum, or were convinced enough he could be scum to vote for him over a no-lynch. Towards the end of the day it got a little more vague with the switch, but clearly since everyone switched back, everyone preferred Sevryn to nobody, which is not the tack you'd take if you were 100% convinced sev was town.



This is a very random post. Supersoft and QS is a bit of an OMGUS, which he admits.

His post about the Bears (it's BrownBear btw ^^ ) contains nothing to back up his accusations, which are wrong to begin with (wasn't going aggressively against inactives at all, posted in ONE POST "hey we should look at the guys who have only posted a few times and have contributed nothing", then Palmar jumped down my throat and made it seem like it was this huge thing that was the centerpiece of my evil plan to mislead and destroy town). Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. Whatever tho bro, continue to sheep along different paths without ever contributing your own ideas.




Raises the concept of a no-lynch (this was in the period where everyone was thinking "wait a minute what if Sev's just dumb town?).




This is true, he was the first to dump an accusation on Rayzor. Perhaps we should look at Rayzor more, now that I think about it. We did almost lynch him, after all. xtfftc does harp on his accusations of rayzor a LOT from this point out, so I'll gloss over the posts that are literally just "hey guyz i was the first to suspect rayzor did you know I still suspect him?"

Although, he goes to mig as a better candidate. Let me highlight the part of his post that makes no sense to me:



So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one?

After this post, it basically boils down to VE discovering xtfftc's big slip, and xtfftc frantically defending himself.

VERDICT:
He's focused a LOT on Rayzor and is "very suspicious" of him, but has always seemed to find a better lynch candidate (with really shitty logic usually, i might add.) His HUGE EFFING SLIP OMG is pretty damning - it seems he takes the "kill everyone and hope we hit mafia" approach, which I don't like one bit, because it's not a very town-favored viewpoint. He has yet to really contribute anything besides his Rayzor argument, and he hasn't backed that up too well. He's very comfortable sheeping along behind more vocal townies. He wanted stories that were already fully developed to "develop further".

In short, he's very wary of putting his ass on the line, and he's using very misleading and bad logic, and he's slipped.

I'm comfortable lynching him.

##Vote: xtfftc

On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:

BrownBear

So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two.

There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him:




I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion.

He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other.

The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people.

Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.

BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point.

Next post, after demanding contribution from me:



The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same.

I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear.

The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory.

This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active".




Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is:



Re-read his posts.

Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town.

I think we have a great lynch candidate here town.

BrownBear is scum

##Vote BrownBear