TL Mafia XLIV

On August 19 2011 05:08 GreYMisT wrote:


Im not sure that 6 for 1 trade was good for us. sure killing the demon is good, but throwing one of our mods into the depths of hell?

On August 19 2011 08:37 Lucidity wrote:
Well
Well a lot of the players on TL are arrogant and aggressive... Not exactly the most encouraging atmosphere for new players to share their thoughts. But to anyone who might feel intimidated or hesitant to post... Don't. You have nothing to lose \;D/ And you'll actually be helping town. So post post.

On that note, how do you feel about Lynch All Lurkers Curu?

On August 19 2011 08:40 Navillus wrote:
Text wall

On August 19 2011 08:57 Lucidity wrote:

/discussion

On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote:
Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie
## vote DropBear

On August 20 2011 01:09 xtfftc wrote:
Sorry but who/what is Nemesis?

On August 20 2011 01:56 Palmar wrote:


read both posts.

notice the different attitude. He's calling shit stupid and has balls in werewolf and ptp2. He's being super-duper cautious this time around.

READ THEM AGAIN NEMESIS, READ THEM

On August 20 2011 04:22 GreYMisT wrote:
Alright I'm back and caught up, for the most part it seems. some stuff still confuses me though.

Palmar, I think multiple people agree that we are going to need additional reasoning behind your HEAVY aggression on DB. Just because he posted a policy post is simply not enough. He did it in the werewolf game and flipped medic. That being said...

DB, though I agree that a no-lynch must be avoided, I think electing an informal mayor is a terrible idea. the mayor could end up being mafia. Nominating yourself is a little bit odd, as well as supplying the reasoning "and most importantly I am town." This sounds like something someone would say who defiantly isn't town. additional to that is the fact that nominating yourself mayor makes you a very high priority target for the mafia on night1.

Though i disagree with your reasoning and methods palmar, i am inclined to feel a bit wary about DB myself. I look forward to being potentially swayed by your evidence.

On August 20 2011 06:52 BrownBear wrote:


I asked for something of substance and this is what I got?

Oh, you.

Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths.

What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it.

I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion.

That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho.

So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.

Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder.

##Vote: JeeJee

On August 20 2011 23:38 chaos13 wrote:
Let's take a brief look at the sevryn bandwagon. Did it build up quickly? Has there been any noticeable defense that appears flimsy or false or nervous? I don't think he's scum.

On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote:
Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie
## vote DropBear

On August 20 2011 03:41 Sevryn wrote:
That was my whole point I didn't say it was a pressure vote untill after he responded and I took my vote off because palmar has a shitty case and I didn't want people to lynch me because they thought I was just bandwagoning

On August 20 2011 02:46 DropBear wrote:
OK wtf Palmar? I actually don't understand. What is your problem with me exactly? Nearly all of your posts are one liners that are some variation of "Kill DropBear".


The "not safe" post you link included a joke about Harry Potter, a complete throwaway vote on kitaman27 and a joke about sandroba's plans. My first post in this thread advocated forcing people to change their vote, how is that so incredibly safe compared PTP2?

I don't actually understand your case, I will talk to you more if you actually come up with something.

---

My posts are 2 pages after the game started. 2 pages. Half the players hadn't even posted yet and most of the ones who did posted nothing other than "/confirm".

How do you expect me to have reads on people before they have even posted, through divination? Time travel?

What's with the random defence of your actions at the end? It's like you know it's a stupid idea, but you're doing it anyway.

On August 21 2011 02:26 Palmar wrote:
chances of sevryn flipping scum: ~0.2%

On August 21 2011 02:31 Palmar wrote:


I'm pretty amazed that you don't see this, because normally your town play is relatively solid and your reads good.

On August 21 2011 04:55 RayzorFlash wrote:
Town right now loses NOTHING by lynching Sev. If he flips red, we immediately know who to go after next, i.e. the people defending him, or the people trying to get someone else lynched first. If he flips green, we can target the ones who have most aggressively tried to get him lynched. Its a win-win situation.

On August 19 2011 20:42 nard wrote:
regarding the early accusations: i see nothing yet which lets me believe we have a scum for certain. but i am damaged from last mini mafia: if dropbear ever dies and turns out to be not scum, Palmar is on my hit list :D

On August 21 2011 08:26 Lucidity wrote:
Hey guys. Sorry I've been afk. Was at a wedding today. It's 1:30am and I'm fucktried. Who are the 2 main suspects so that I can filter their posts? I don't want to make an absolutely useless vote.

On August 21 2011 10:14 Navillus wrote:
Ok guys, all the scum voting for Sev obviously won't switch their votes, but if you are town and you are voting for sev please switch it's very unlikely that he's scum because he got bandwagoned so easily and when there were plenty of options he was the one bandwagoned, scum wouldn't let that happen to one of their own this will also let us get better reads on the people who leave their votes on sev.

On August 23 2011 00:41 Jackal58 wrote:
Mig/Vain. Either one. Pick one and lynch the fuck out of them. If Mig flips scum I'm willing to look at Palmar as more of a townie. If Vain flips scum I'm willing to give Foolishness another look see.
Neither Foolishness nor Palmar give me a warm fuzzy feeling atm but looking at how Mig and Vain hammered home the lynch on Sevryn without so much as a howdy do I am pretty certain one of them is scum if not both.

On August 23 2011 00:56 Palmar wrote:
Foolishness made some correct observations on day 1. In addition he claimed a shot in a way I don't think Scumishness would've done. However, the medic who saved him should absolutely claim at some point, I've not concluded how and when is the best point to claim. I think claiming before this night would be stupid. Perhaps just as this night ends in case he gets shot? I don't know.

On August 23 2011 01:00 Palmar wrote:


Are you being intentionally thick?

On August 23 2011 01:10 Palmar wrote:


So what do you think about lynching Mig?

On August 23 2011 07:08 Foolishness wrote:

You were in DrH's experimental game with Mig. Does anything about his behavior this game resemble that game?

On August 23 2011 10:28 Mig wrote:
I know some people are going to cry omgus omgus vote here but I wanted to go back and look through all the posts of the people jumping on my bandwagon first. And dropbear looks extremely scummy to me. Here are the points against him

1) His play at the start of the game. Dropbear starts the game off with fluff posts concerning no lynches and his mayor thing. While palmar is attacking him and generating actual discussion that can be used to find scum, db is deflecting the discussion onto unrelated subjects. And as soon as soon as palmar calls him out on this db tries to turn it around and tries to actually take credit for getting discussion started. When really he has done 0 scum hunting and all his posts are bland ways to look like you are contributing.

2) Contradictions. Look at some of these quotes by db.





Ok so he wants to lynch hiro for not giving reasons for his sevryn vote, he also thinks there is no case against me. Then this is his post where he votes me on day2.



Gives absolutely no reasons for voting me even though he had said earlier there was no case against me huh? What changed your mind dropbear? He also states he is fine with hiro now for trying to deflect the sevryn lynch when I had done the exact same thing.

3) Activity. Don't look at the amount of posts DB has overall but look at when he is active. He was extremely active right at the start of day 1 posting where he has a bunch of fluff and tried to claim town cred for it. However what about after that? He pretty much disappears then shows up right before the end of day 1 makes 2 short posts attacking hiro and chaoser and disappears. So he introduced 2 new candidates right at the end of the day BUT didn't stick around to actually push for their lynches. He knew sevryn was going to flip green and didn't want to get any backlash from it so instead he posted a couple short cases against people not in danger of being lynched and then vanished to let the town argue amongst themselves. And what about day2? We are 24 hours in and db has one post. This is classic mafia activity. Active right at the start of the game where he is trying to buy town cred for himself but once we get deeper in and real analysis starts he is completely MIA.

So seriously look at DB's posts and ask yourself what his motivations are. Has he put any effort into scum hunting? Does he care if town makes the correct decisions? No. He comes in posts a ton at the start to buy credit but afterwards he basically sits out of the sevryn lynch, doesn't push for the people he actually thinks are scummy to be lynched at all and then on day2 he votes for me because it is a chance to jump on a bandwagon to get a strong town player lynched even though he had said earlier there was no case against me.

#Vote Dropbear

On August 23 2011 09:24 Jackal58 wrote:

Sure I did. It was a coin flip between you and Vain. It was your late vote on Sevryn to hammer home a lynch when it was almost shifted to Rayzor.

Explain please.

On August 23 2011 12:27 Foolishness wrote:

I don't know what OMGUS means. If you care about the town then type out what you want to say, don't hide behind acronyms.

Mostly meta? I accused him of bad posting yesterday. Chaoser found a contradiction today. No meta there. I look at his past games to verify my accusations. So far it's not in his favor. If his attitude this game was like when he was town (XLIII for example) then I would rethink my analysis and would not be pushing him this hard.

In response to "you don't think there's some lazy vote parking and contradiction there either?" no I don't. If there is point one out to me. Chaoser found a contradiction in Mig's post. That's pretty good in itself. I bring forth these arguments about "meta" because they serve as further evidence that I'm on the right track.

You clearly did not read the last paragraph of my previous post. I'm not building a case on this. I'm not building a case on this. I'm not building a case on this. My case is built upon his contradiction and bad day 1 posting. Everything else I've said only builds on top of that. Look at the big picture. The individual pieces are what make the big picture, and that's where you find the mafia. Examining one individual piece does not find you mafia.

For those that are wondering, I think xtfftc is town at the moment. I'm not thoroughly convinced, but the evidence against Mig just fits too well together.

This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange.

...

not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't).

On August 23 2011 18:30 xtfftc wrote:
Wall of text incoming:

[spoiler]
Of course townkills have nothing to do with modkills. Townkills are made by town, modkills by mods. What is the problem?

On August 23 2011 22:11 Palmar wrote:
Millers do not know they are millers.

On August 23 2011 22:16 Palmar wrote:


Because that's how millers always work.

On August 23 2011 22:26 Jackal58 wrote:

Who the hell scares you more as scum? Mig? Or Vain? I had issues with both. I asked the same question of both. I'm still undecided on both.

DB vs SS
Lynch SS. If he is not what DB presents him as we lynch DB. It's a 1 for 1 trade. Scum don't like 1 for 1 trades.I don't know why there is any issue with this. Inspite of Barundars best Ace impersonation lynching the DT first is stupid.

Errandorr - Flavor text is the storyline in your role PM. Instead of - You are townie, you get a story.

On August 24 2011 01:09 DropBear wrote:
Cos I'm an idiot. Can we drop it please. Forget it happened. Stop the derailment. Mafia will be laughin their arse off right now.

Get back to scumhunting. RayzorFlash you have disappeared.
##Vote RayzorFlash

On August 23 2011 21:43 Kurumi wrote:
DB, didn't Foolishness claim RB? Unless supersoft flips RB You're fucked and You know it. But Supersoft might flip miller or regular goon(or anything else goes).

On August 24 2011 04:12 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, this town is full of WIFOM, and it has a name: Dropbear.

This exact situation happened in wherewolfs. day2, someone claims DT, we keep him alive. Town then spends 2 days trying to decide if the claimer is telling the truth or not. we kill him 2 days later: he was a DT. Knowing this, I wish I would have lynched him right when he claimed. We would have lost a DT, but established an important meta: claims that cannot be confirmed must never happen!

claims that cannot be confirmed must never happen

I say there is a 50/50 chance that DB is scum. considering all thats happened today, thats good enough to lynch off of.

##Vote: DropBear

DB, If you town, I am sorry, but you left us in a terrible situation.

xtfftc defense has been fairly reasonable. he has not back away from what he said, and he seems to general feel that he has done nothing wrong. good on ya xtfftc, lets scum hunt.

Also, apologies to GreyMist for calling him out when I didn't notice he was asking for a replacement.

On August 24 2011 04:12 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, this town is full of WIFOM, and it has a name: Dropbear.

This exact situation happened in wherewolfs. day2, someone claims DT, we keep him alive. Town then spends 2 days trying to decide if the claimer is telling the truth or not. we kill him 2 days later: he was a DT. Knowing this, I wish I would have lynched him right when he claimed. We would have lost a DT, but established an important meta: claims that cannot be confirmed must never happen!

claims that cannot be confirmed must never happen

I say there is a 50/50 chance that DB is scum. considering all thats happened today, thats good enough to lynch off of.

##Vote: DropBear

DB, If you town, I am sorry, but you left us in a terrible situation.

xtfftc defense has been fairly reasonable. he has not back away from what he said, and he seems to general feel that he has done nothing wrong. good on ya xtfftc, lets scum hunt.

Also, apologies to GreyMist for calling him out when I didn't notice he was asking for a replacement.

On August 23 2011 06:26 hiro protagonist wrote:
btw, I will put up an analysis on xtfftc when I feel like it.

On August 24 2011 04:42 chaoser wrote:
You all know where my vote stands and there it shall stay.

Dropbear's odd timing and then his claim as the medic that saved Foolishness, combined with the fact that no one has counterclaimed it leads me to trust his claim. As a consequence of that I trust Foolishness to be town.

On August 24 2011 04:49 Kurumi wrote:

nah let's lynch Mig

On August 24 2011 04:55 Kurumi wrote:

We have important Foolishness+DropBear link on that lynch, couple of players who are here for a while (chaoser and Jackal58), the more we know about these people (who are quite active and well-spoken) the better for us. I dunno I should re-read the thread since I've got time now.

On August 24 2011 07:10 Palmar wrote:


I would very much want to lynch BrownBear, but I'm not sure I can build the support for that case today.

Of the other candidates there are some for points and some against.

Hiro Protagonist has either very much stepped up his scum play, or I'm right and he's town, I don't want to lynch him today.

xtffcasdio is much more scummy than hiro. But there is a certain impulsiveness in his posts. I can't exactly put my finger on it, but he's not gone below the "fishy" category for me yet.

Which leaves Mig. The entire argument against Mig, is that he has done very, very little fingerpointing that matters this game. Mig is one to usually tear up the thread as town and find scum left and right. He says he's fed up with mafia at the moment, but I mean, it's huge wifom if he's actually telling the truth in that regard.

There are other daming things in Mig's play. He has stuck down a total of 3 fos's in this game. One on Sevryn, where he called him lolscum, only to back it off later and try to switch the town to lynch chaoser. I don't know if Mig ever thought he could sway town with this switch, but it sure didn't look like he was pushing it.

Lastly he wrote an analysis on DropBear, who has... well... played questionably throughout the game. I don't really mind this case, what I mind is the fact that Mig was wrong again, and seemed to be going for a target that was easy to hunt down.

As I said much earlier in the thread, I have a fuckton of respect for Mig as a player, and given that respect, I don't think he can have done the things he has done unless he is either completely and utterly fed up with the game, or just not town-aligned.

I find the latter more likely.

##Vote Mig

On August 24 2011 07:47 Palmar wrote:


I form opinions, and I then try to objectively read the thread after that, but it's hard. I'm not afraid of being wrong, and I've quite often been right. Maybe this is the game where I'm wrong on all accounts, but I expect others to be able to pick that up.

Also, why do you basically declare me town? Do you know my alignment?

here are my notes on hiro, will read up on Mig now. i have no idea what agenda hiro is pushing, except a way to obvious scummy one.

On August 24 2011 09:22 xtfftc wrote:
Palmar, are you happy to push Chaos13's lynch with the condition that in case he is town, you die next?

On August 23 2011 06:36 BrownBear wrote:
Anyway, I'm looking through xfftc, Mig, Vain, and Hiro's posts. A lot of you guys have already done this, but those of you who haven't should do so!

On August 19 2011 08:46 xtfftc wrote:
I don't have anything to add really - as long as we're all active, all is good. I'd just bear in mind that people don't want to die, even in a game.

On August 19 2011 18:06 xtfftc wrote:
I already explained my position on lurkers and their effect on the game. Asking me to repeat myself is generating spam - and we all know who benefits from spam.

On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote:
##Vote: Palmar
…
I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour.

On August 22 2011 22:28 xtfftc wrote:
Nah, I'm just bored of Supersoft. If anyone else has questions for me, I'd gladly answer them.

On August 22 2011 23:30 xtfftc wrote:
I was the first to point the finger at Rayzor, feel free to filter my posts and re-read my arguments against him.

On August 24 2011 08:38 xtfftc wrote:
We have 8 votes for Mig and 6 for Hiro. They are followed by DropBear and myself with 2 each.

I am leaning towards Hiro at the moment. I can see how his voting pattern might actually make sense for a mafia player. He has taken a stance against pretty much everyone accused, so in a way he has pleased everyone without focusing on a specific target.

Also, this:

How can a 100% confirmed townie's death be better than a no-lynch? It's not like Hiro's death is going to give us some concrete information.

So,
##Vote: hiro protagonist

I will check the thread before I go to bed in ~45 minutes and I'll switch to Mig if we are facing the prospect of a no-lynch.

On August 27 2011 00:51 xtfftc wrote:
Nard, what do you think of Mig's claim?

Curu, check my voting history again, please.

And I'm up for switching to BrownBear as well.

This is why at the moment I'd go for Mig. Although he improved after his early post about Sevryn, he did not provide anything substantial. Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.

On August 27 2011 01:52 xtfftc wrote:


So I was mafia because I voted Mig and now I'm mafia because I didn't vote Mig. And although you are basing your accusation on Foolishness' theory about the connection between the wagon for me and the reduced pressure on Mig, now you think I'm mafia even if Mig flips red. Right.

On August 31 2011 01:48 Pyo wrote:
bumatlarge - no idea really, I thought BB was scum, but the sub (and the need to be subbed in the first place) has thrown me off so I don't really know. WBG's analysis of him felt like bullshit though.

On August 24 2011 03:37 Curu wrote:
Actually this makes more sense to me the more I think about. If he was Mafia, he has an excuse for not being touched by Mafia because he led a mislynch and is under fire, he can get through 2-3 more people, claiming guilty on each one, then at the end claim he is actually paranoid and skate the rest of the way.

On August 20 2011 19:26 Pyo wrote:


woah, woah, woah... BrownBear? I thought you wanted DropBear dead?

On August 21 2011 07:15 Pyo wrote:







I'm confused. What do you mean by this? What exactly has changed that would warrant you changing your vote? The only thing I can see is that he's received the critical mass to actually have a lynch so he'll get lynched even if you change your vote. Are you trying to cover your tracks for if/when he flips green?

On August 24 2011 07:22 Pyo wrote:


Wow, DT claim into medic claim? I don't think I believe him, but then again, if he's for real, he'll be dead by the hands of the mafia.

I'm going to keep my vote on Mig. He's gone with the "I'm burned out on mafia" defense of his posting into one-liners, which is as scummy as anyone else here (except for DB's role claiming). That said, I don't think he's going to get enough votes to actually be lynched.

On September 03 2011 11:00 Pyo wrote:
I'm pretty sure that the scum team can be found within Rayzor, supersoft, chaos13 and Navillus

I was going to write up more analysis of them but i ran out of time.

On September 05 2011 13:27 Pyo wrote:


If he hadn't the game would be over if mafia used both their KP... 3 modkills means we're in LyLo so we can't afford to lynch me now - we also can't afford to no lynch. After tonight it will be 4 - 3, so if there are any traitors present at all (who will likely push for a no-lynch), it's game over. The only hope is for mafia to kill off said traitors. *crosses fingers*

On September 06 2011 22:35 Kurumi wrote:
we have 2 dts and we are killing the one which gave us a red lynch?

On September 08 2011 11:12 RayzorFlash wrote:
You won't get a chance, its game over... Why won't people just trust me for once, XD