So in my analysis of the mechanics I left one thing out, which may be obvious, but it's still something worth considering. I think it's quite likely GF is the one who sends in the kills or at least is around at the time to approve them. Assuming this, we can make a list of players who have been around at the time of the kills and have a reasonably good chance at determining who is GF.

I've been fairly lenient in terms of what I consider "being around", mainly because it's possible that there is no host around when the PM is sent. Some players can be removed from consideration as they aren't realistic GF candidates or even players who would be sending in mafia kills. Palmar initially wasn't around for the first kill and in fact wasn't initially going to participate, so I don't think he can be the GF, just based on the fact he wouldn't have been elected due to being absent or uncertain to participate. Further, the real time aspect of the game makes it likely the GF is someone who can be around at the time of the day post.

The only person who has without a doubt been around every single time is youngminii. Mr. Wiggles has been around at least 4 times and Gmarshal 3.

Of course, it's entirely possible to decide on the kills beforehand, but the kills haven't been sent immediately after the day posts and appear at least somewhat reactionary. It's also possible for the GF to be lurking, but generally GF is very active.

This isn't damning evidence, but taking into account who the likely GF candidates are in terms of experience, thread activity and finally the known scum team, I think there's a high chance one of above is GF. Youngminii is obviously my pick so far.

Oh and I just noticed youngminii actually knew that the game has 4-5 KP and then later "mistakenly" thought mafia has only 1. To be fair, as he pointed out, he is co-hosting Closed Casket mafia, which only has 1. He also was somewhat asking to be DT checked here. Seems odd he wanted possible GF candidates to be checked and included himself. Finally, Dropbear publicly disagreed with youngminii's "case" against me. Some here obviously disagree, but I think the case was really weak and I find it curious Dropbear bothered to adress it even in this length. Could have just been him distancing himself from Youngminii. Oh, and Dropbear was a roleblocker and they both australians, making it easier to coordinate.

A lot of WIFOM above, but when combined with my earlier case against youngminii, I think youngminii is a good lynch today. Someone should compile another list of players who were active at the time of the kills to make sure I got it right.

Youngminii is GF

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 16:55 GMT

#1132

You are right, I did have to assume a lot, which is why I asked that question on irc on day 1

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 16:59 GMT

#1134

Don't they pick both RB and GF? Obviously such a thing has no meaning in a regular game, but this is the first game played in real time on these forums, correct? I didn't put much relevance to that tidbit, it was just something that occurred to me

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 17:00 GMT

#1135

But yes, if everyone on the scum team can act independently, most of what I said above is meaningless. I was made to believe GF usually does send in the actions.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 17:05 GMT

#1137

I played in XLII and some other forums, but yes

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 18:44 GMT

#1142

Oh I didn't believe that at all, it was just something worth considering. It doesn't even have to be the GF, but you can infer things from activity during kills regardless of whether it was the GF who send in the kills.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 19:54 GMT

#1151

He still hasn't provided any analysis of his own. I would definitely vote for him if youngminii isn't a realistic lynch today

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:06 GMT

#1156

We won't lynch him today because he is almost certainly correct about his presence on tomorrow's lurker tomorrow. If there's no one-shot vigi and thus no lurker shots, we may have to lynch him tomorrow, though given how dire the mafia situation currently is, I find it unlikely he would be so willingly be a target on himself. I should stop assuming mafia is playing well though, given Drazerk's play and their choice of kills.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:06 GMT

#1157

Wait, I guess we will lynch VisceraEyes today

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:09 GMT

#1160

Unless someone with more experience of these setups thinks 3 DTs is even remotely possible. Do remember that that would mean 6(!) lurker checks on day 2.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:15 GMT

#1162

We already know his "checks": Drakerz and Varpulis. Conveniently Varpulis died before Viscera was forced to reveal his role.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:39 GMT

#1170

Viscera checking Drazerk frankly doesn't make sense. Mafia not killing him immediately after day 2 post makes no sense. Do you know why? It's quite possible medics would either send in their PMs too late or still be stuck with their previous targets due to it lasting 36h. These could be explained by mafia being inept of course, but it just to the suspicion.

What is the alternative method of dealing/confirming him then? Make him do the same check tomorrow? Mafia could kill proposed targets and giving him too much leeway would allow him checking another mafia. Moreover, the target would likely be VT. Unless we get lucky, I don't think we can trust him unless he gives us a red.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:40 GMT

#1171

EBWOP: adds to the suspicion

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:51 GMT

#1174

I would like Viscera to reveal when and why he checked Drazerk. Also explain why you saved your check so late into the day, only to check the person who was already being pushed hard.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 20:55 GMT

#1177

If you read Chaos' later post, he wanted to get Varpulis or VE checked. I'm not sure what that implies because he had ample time to react to the results, assuming he didn't waste his check on someone else earlier. VE can also be GF who shows up as DT, which would explain the bus and the gambit.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 21:04 GMT

#1180

That makes sense except for the part where you says he could stop town from mislynching, as he could just as well be diverting a lynch from his scum mate.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 21:09 GMT

#1182

Well as long as there are at least 2 other mafia around, we can keep him around, but it's unlikely he will be helpful. If VE is red, lynching him today would drop mafia KP to 1. I'm up to lynching Youngminii/sinani201 still, obviously.

VE should still clarify the time line/reasoning behind Drazerk check

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 21:15 GMT

#1186

It's not a major WIFOM, because 3 DTs a setup with 2 lurker checks per DT every 3 days is extremely unlikely. I'm willing to entertain the possibility as long as we have other solid lynch alternatives, but I don't believe it.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

July 01 2011 21:20 GMT

#1188

Also VE voting Kenpachi today is interesting, given his flip and his presence on the lurker list