EPTAll I can really say is that I had a horrible read, apparently.
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Karshe
United States212 Posts
All I can really say is that I had a horrible read, apparently. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
This definitely isn't a bad start. I still worry about the amount of information we have, but I guess that can be remedied in the coming days. First thing to do is try not to overthink the situation. There is a chance the mafia might have voted for Giyg as soon as they saw him as a potential target, but the obvious and much more accessible solution is to approach the problem from the point of view that mafia didn't vote for mafia. So unless any major clues get revealed, the first thing to do is to analyse and understand everyone that got on the wrong side of the vote, and try to find out who was genuinely wrong and who had malicious intent. Karshe Hiro Protagonist Wunder Nard Palmar It's more than likely that both the remaining mafia can be found in this list. I will break down everyone's posts in this list, except of course myself, that's a job for someone else, and provide analysis in the coming day. | ||
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
My safe list contains: deepblu2 Skrammen (myself obviously) (viscera) This of course needs qualification. I actually just found out that deepblu was on to giygas before me. Not very active, still right. Skrammen. 1 post. Still right. I think it´s safe to assume Mafs are going to be active. Way more active then these 2. I put Viscera half on the list. He may be all over the place and not the most solid player, but he is constant. No change in behaviour even after my initial small analysis. That means he either doesn´t fear suspicion because he knows he is innocent or he has My main suspects as of right now are Palmar and Karshe. On the other hand, we shouldn´t really do that much at night. Maybe pray that we got a favorable setup. | ||
Wunder
United Kingdom2950 Posts
Anyways, sorry for the wrong vote - decided to go with the safer vote rather than have a bunch of suspect innocents. I'll hopefully participate more tomorrow! Just to clarify, we can PM anyone here right? To have like secret conversations? | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On May 18 2011 18:18 Wunder wrote: Hi! Sorry, can dead people still post? Probably not, right? Anyways, sorry for the wrong vote - decided to go with the safer vote rather than have a bunch of suspect innocents. I'll hopefully participate more tomorrow! Just to clarify, we can PM anyone here right? To have like secret conversations? PM's are *not* allowed this game, so no, you cannot PM anyone, unless you are mafia, in which case you can PM your mafia buddies. And dead people cannot post | ||
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DeepBlu2
United States975 Posts
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
Although you were right to be suspicious, hell, I would be too. Yesterday was the national day in the cold north, so I did not have a lot of time to make a thorough and constructive post. I am glad, however, that we did get the mafia. Was it obvious, or a stroke of luck? I found him suspicious. I am eagerly awaiting some new posts. I'm not able to deduce anything of import from these posts, but I guess, as someone put it earlier, that I am terrible at this. | ||
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stefftastiq
Norway205 Posts
else: nice to see a mafia lynch first day - if it was luck or good thinking by us, right now, who knows? As for now I'm a bit suspicious about everybody  | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Before you might be scum-killed On May 18 2011 11:08 VisceraEyes wrote: @prplhz I had no desire to change my vote until your 11th hour scum-switch. What was that about? Why did you want to change your vote after my "11th hour scum-switch"? Who did you want to change your vote to? I am very curious abouts this. | ||
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
And I claim of course magnificient scumhunting that led to successful lynch. Magnificient  | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On May 18 2011 12:26 Palmar wrote: Alright, turns out he was indeed a terrible mafia! This definitely isn't a bad start. I still worry about the amount of information we have, but I guess that can be remedied in the coming days. First thing to do is try not to overthink the situation. There is a chance the mafia might have voted for Giyg as soon as they saw him as a potential target, but the obvious and much more accessible solution is to approach the problem from the point of view that mafia didn't vote for mafia. So unless any major clues get revealed, the first thing to do is to analyse and understand everyone that got on the wrong side of the vote, and try to find out who was genuinely wrong and who had malicious intent. Karshe Hiro Protagonist Wunder Nard Palmar It's more than likely that both the remaining mafia can be found in this list. I will break down everyone's posts in this list, except of course myself, that's a job for someone else, and provide analysis in the coming day. Here's my problem with your approach here Palmar. Everyone on that list voted for Skrammen for one reason: Because he's inactive and you (among others) were gunning hard for inactives the ENTIRE GAME. I don't even have to analyze your posts...they all say the same thing. "Inactives are a threat to this town, we must get rid of them first." What I find interesting is that after spending all game saying this, the very first post you make after we find some scum is "Forget inactives...let's start looking for scum now!" As Mataza pointed out, 2 of the 4 most inactive players voted rightly for who they thought was scum. The other 2 bandwaggoned on someone more inactive than they are. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
At the time, you were top of my list for people who are red. Mainly because you were targeting me and I suck. At any rate, one of the things I said to you earlier was "Unvoting is NOT suspicious...timing of unvoting IS suspicious." You have to admit....pulling a 9:59 switch totally betraying the people who were voting for the inactive....it looks pretty scummy. I had no desire to switch my vote until you did this. I dont' know who I would've switched to, but I know that I didn't want my vote to lie with yours, scum in my eyes. | ||
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Karshe
United States212 Posts
He was going so out of his way to discredit Giygas who ended up flipping red. Either he's a great townie, or a very ballsy mafia. I am most suspicious of VisceraEyes at the moment... going to re-read all of his posts today and see what I can come up with. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
[sarcasm]Yeah, I agree...someone who had GiygaS on his official, posted scum-list should have MOST of your suspicion.[/sarcasm] Unless we have a doc, I postulate that Mafia intend to murder Mataza and discredit me to try and get me lynched d2. | ||
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Karshe
United States212 Posts
I would love to be proven wrong, though, since you both have been very active/useful players. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 19 2011 01:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Here's my problem with your approach here Palmar. Everyone on that list voted for Skrammen for one reason: Because he's inactive and you (among others) were gunning hard for inactives the ENTIRE GAME. I don't even have to analyze your posts...they all say the same thing. "Inactives are a threat to this town, we must get rid of them first." What I find interesting is that after spending all game saying this, the very first post you make after we find some scum is "Forget inactives...let's start looking for scum now!" As Mataza pointed out, 2 of the 4 most inactive players voted rightly for who they thought was scum. The other 2 bandwaggoned on someone more inactive than they are. I mean, great success on the first day might render my approach irrelevant in this game, but you can't count on every game getting lucky with a loud-mouth the first day. Sometimes that same loud-mouth will be a bad townie. I don't want to lynch inactives. I want to threaten them with a lynch to the point they are forced to contribute to the game, and then we can start scumhunting. While written information for analysis is the best way to approach scum hunt, as I'm sure both you and mataza will agree with me in, vote patterns are also something you can base scum-hunting on. I am all for putting pressure on inactive people to step up and provide us with information, but I did not get much support for it last night, so I'll just admit... I'm kind of giving up on that approach, and gonna go with the ammunition I have at hand to get the baddies. I had a bad read on Gyig, looks like I had a good read on Mataza. I actually thought they were both townies pointing fingers at each other. But yeah, Mataza looks really clean now. But listen up here: I'm going to retract my first statement about only analysing the people who did not vote for Giyg. I went back and re-read all his posts, and he's so chaotic and bad, that there is a possibility of the mafia simply throwing him under the bus to gain trust, because he was always going to get lynched anyway. I'm not going to start pointing fingers just yet, but someone like purplehaze looks really damn safe now after being the deciding vote that got a mafia lynched. It's not far-fetched to think that any smart mafia would consider throwing their useless buddy under the bus to buy safety. Lastly: It is important to no end that VisEyes and Mataza leave their thoughts in this thread before day breaks, you two are by fare the most likely mafia targets. Of the townies that actually contributed on day one, myself and Kersha are probably safe, seeing as it'll be easy to convince the town to vote against us. purplehaze is in a weird spot, but I don't think he'll get murdered. Might post your thoughts anyway though. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
So you did not consider that it might be quite obvious that you voted for GiygaS to disguise your own scummyness but knowing that he would not get lynched. And then when I did my "11th hour scummy" change of vote you noticed it too late and accidentally contributed to lynch a fellow scum? | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
It's reasonable to assume that my reaction was noob scum-tell. Allow me to explain my thought-process behind what I said. At the time of your switch, I was in a bad place in the game. I'd been trying to analyze all day, tried posting my thoughts on various people, anything I could to try and help hunt scum. You had posted something which I thought was suspicious, so I analyzed the post. I had clearly asked you to clarify a few inconsistencies in the post, but you just waved them away refusing to answer them. Claiming that I was saying something I wasn't. Add to that Palmar's assertion that everything I was doing was useless, and you could see my frustration. Now, on to the post in question. Your switch made me imagine two likely scenarios. First, that you were scum and at the last minute you switched your vote knowing that as it was so close, you knew you were hitting GigyaS. Otherwise, you were scum, and you were hitting GigyaS in an attempt to clear you of suspicion when GigyaS flipped red. I decided before I posted that the most likely scenario was the second and left my vote unchanged...as you'll note, I DID post before voting was closed after you switched. I had ample time to switch my vote. So what you're saying is that I not only outted myself as scum by commenting on your switch, but that I in my noobiness forgot to unvote and save my scummy friend. Is that correct? | ||
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