EPT- No contribution
- Massive lurking
- Voted Kurumi day 1, Cthazsa day 2, EM Day 3 all townies
- Doesn't feel obliged to do analysis
- No reasons given for any votes
TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 9
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DropBear
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- No contribution - Massive lurking - Voted Kurumi day 1, Cthazsa day 2, EM Day 3 all townies - Doesn't feel obliged to do analysis - No reasons given for any votes | ||
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DropBear
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On May 20 2011 15:58 Xedat wrote: I like that more dead people than people still alive post -.- I think everyone's waiting for the second coming of chaoser to lead the masses to victory. On May 20 2011 09:43 kitaman27 wrote: @DropBear: Guess you will have to ask mafia why I'm not dead. Scum had a long list of confirmed towns to plow through, though I have to admit I was kinda surprised it wasn't me last night rather than varp. There were 2 posts in the last night saying people were suspicious of you. You are the most experienced one left, give us something more than just prodding lurkers. Staying on AO. Will switch to jaminz before lynch time if I can't anyone to join my bandwagon  | ||
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DropBear
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It's readjustment time again. Jaminz' flip is revealing. Big post coming from me just before daybreak. | ||
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DropBear
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On May 21 2011 17:18 Xedat wrote: After this night it will be 6 town 2 mafia, time is running out. I just looked at the votes, the only one ho voted for Impervious and Jaminz is Mig, but I don't think that this is too scummy as 3/4 of all people with many votes (Imp,Jaminz,redtooth) have flipped green, the only one who also had many votes was orgolove and I am quite certain that he is not red. Dropbear has been on AirbladeOrange for a while, if he could link to an analysis of AirbladeOrange I could be inclined to vote for him today. I have the feeling that one mafia hides beteen the more inactive players and one between the active players, but you can't be too certain on that. Here on AO. A few things have changed since then though, I had him tied to ilovejonn. He still hasn't really done enough to make me leave him alone tbh. | ||
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DropBear
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. Will read up and do some analysis now. RIP Forumite and it looks like orgolove is preeeeeeeeetty fucked right now | ||
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DropBear
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![[image loading]](http://www.johnarroyo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/2356i_m_back.jpg) Sorry been quiet the last few days, been chasing a female. With a colossal fail it's back to mafia! The general consensus is that orgolove should go today. This post is just before Forumite's death. On May 22 2011 05:01 Forumite wrote: Scumhunting is hard. I think orgolove is scum, but whenever I look elsewhere it gets tough, partly because of the tunneling on orgolove, everything else gets distorted around it, like ilj, orgolove has been tunneling on him for so damn long. This suggests to me that he either checked orgolove the night he died or that he checked him before that and he flipped green. It also suggests the possibility of him having checked ilovejonn and him coming up green. Forumite has been pushing the hell out of orgolove and everyone has wagoned on him today based pretty much entirely on this. To be honest I'm not completely convinced. Forumite has been pushing orgolove but he wasn't 100%. As for you AO... On May 22 2011 02:10 AirbladeOrange wrote: These two quotes are from page 97. I'm getting more suspicious of DropBear because he continues not only to push me without any good evidence but also he has a pretty bad voting record. These two posts were when sinani206 was under a lot of pressure and DropBear seems to be publicly trying to help him out and gain him some town credit by urging him to defend himself then repeatedly states he now thinks sinani to be town. I'm not convinced on DropBear but he might be a good candidate for the other goon assuming the godfather is a more experienced player. ilovejonn gets town credit because of this (probably coached) attack post by sinani after there was a good chance he was getting lynched: AO you haven't really done ANYTHING since an early analysis of Cthazsa. I'm trying to get you to help. You are continually making decisions with absolutely no reasoning provided. The more it happens the more worried I get. On May 17 2011 03:53 AirbladeOrange wrote: I did not feel compelled to do an analysis on people who voted for Kurumi. But I still say it would be a good idea. I thought Mig had a good chance of being mafia. I thought there was a good chance EternalMisfit was mafia. You still haven't answered these. WHY MIG AND EM? WHY NOT DO ANALYSIS? On May 12 2011 03:05 AirbladeOrange wrote: I haven't been posting much lately because I don't really know what to do or say. Are we generally agreeing to pick out two people to vote on again? I'm leaning toward EternalMisfit at this point. I'm going to vote now since I might not be back before the end of the day. I think what I'm going to do later is look at the first day of the game and see who was voting for who and who was defending who out out our suspicious people list. I want to look at the posts that weren't necessarily suspicious at the time but might be now. No reasoning for EM. Your vote analysis never transpired. On May 16 2011 13:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Oroglove is my number one and redtooth is my number two. Why? On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote: orgolove is my vote again. Next in line are probably DropBear and Kita, maybe jaminz. I don't feel like I have much to go by now though because there is too much to go by. Why? The analysis you provide of me today is pretty much the first thing you've done since day 2 that wasn't a one-liner. Also, pretty sure that I pointed out that sinani's ilj analysis looked coached before anyone else did, directly after it. On May 14 2011 14:31 DropBear wrote: Lol it's almost a perfectly split lynch again. Sinani I agree with most of your analysis and I've been backing you but.... that post is very different to ones you've made previously. Is there some scumcoaching going on there I wonder? On May 14 2011 15:00 DropBear wrote: This is sinani's day 1 analysis. This is his analysis just now on Day 4 on the opposing lynch target. The style and confidence are different. He is much more structured now that he is under pressure. This seems counter-intuitive. Oh fuck I'm having a sandroba moment. Why is everyone being so quiet? Due to my confusion I offered an alternative. | ||
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DropBear
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On May 22 2011 14:19 chaos13 wrote: Day 4 thoughts on Mig here.I have a few problems with what you're saying: -You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it -You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town -You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather. Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum. AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig? Since then Mig has: Voted for sinani206 on the day he was lynched Voted redtooth then switched to Impervious Voted Jaminz His voting record is quite bad. His posting looks alright though. I can't find much that is suss at all. Everything he does he gives a reason for and clearly states it. It all seems to be in order. I feel much much better about Mig than I feel about most of the others. Chaos, not everyone thinks kita is town. You yourself accuse him here. And I don't understand what you mean when you say that Mig has more information? Could you explain please? | ||
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DropBear
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This is the last post from Amber[Light]. On May 09 2011 11:59 Amber[LighT] wrote: Damn you mothers day! Terrible analysis by the town. No wonder you were pushing bullshit for the last few days. Chaoser and Sandroba, not actually good at scumhunting. Remember that town. This is after chaoser named GGQ, sinani and oohed and ahhed about ilovejonn. Obviously it was trying to divert attention away from chaoser's list. In the event that orgolove flips green I will probably vote ilovejonn tomorrow, depending on who survives the night. In the event that orgolove flips red, it's down to kita, AO and elmizzt.. Xedat, Mig, chaos13 are clear townies to me and ilovejonn would be cleared completely after being the alternative target to both orgolove and sinani206. | ||
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DropBear
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I think we should keep it quiet tonight guys. Mafia will be trying to avoid taking out people that are found suspicious. Keep your analysis to the morning, or post it at the very last second of the night. | ||
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DropBear
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On May 24 2011 14:20 Mig wrote: Why would we keep quiet? Mafia is not gonna kill you/elmizzit/ao/ilj tonight regardless of what we say. We should not be quiet when one of the only active people left is going to be killed. We need to discuss what our best play is now while we have the chance. If we keep quiet you are going to quickly find yourself trying to scum hunt with people who have posted 3 times in the last 2 days. Alright fair point. Mig, Xedat and chaos are clear as far as I'm concerned. The remaining 2 mafia are certainly amongst kitaman27, ilovejonn, AO and elmizzt. Of these: kita has been the most vocal. ilovejonn has done nothing bar attack EM and defend himself against orgolove AO has attacked Cthasza and done nothing else. elmizzt defended himself against me and not much else. If I was a betting man I'd say it's the last two, possibly ilj. | ||
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DropBear
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On May 24 2011 16:04 Mig wrote: So who specifically do you want us to vote for tomorrow db? And why. I'd like to keep it to AO and ilovejonn, possibly elmizzt as well. Neither of them are contributing at all. They have both been lurking like crazy. They both have atrocious voting patterns and are 1 and 2 on orgolove's vote analysis. They were both on chaoser's list of potentials. On May 09 2011 12:12 chaoser wrote: Ok, so here's why I pulled my plan and claimed so late. As you all can see, the votes between Cth and Amber was pretty fucking close just before my claim, which people bumping Amber further ahead near the end. What does this mean? This means mafia was resisting Amber's lynch as hard as fuck. That means probably anyone who voted for Amber[light] to get lynched is townie. I'm not 100% sure on this, but I am pretty sure. That being said, there's going to be a lot of mafia on the Cthsazsa vote list. And I'm going to point out a few of them: And also Sinani Chaoser's Mafia List: sinani ilovejohn GGQ EternalMisfit I will explain why each of them are as such Look in the spoiler. ilovejonn and AO are both there on the list of voting for Amber early. Everyone else on the list except Xedat is now dead. I reckon we can get one more at least. | ||
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DropBear
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DropBear
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DropBear
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On May 25 2011 09:38 kitaman27 wrote: I find it interesting that you list all the people who voted to save Amber, but omit yourself solely due to the fact that your vote came after GMarshal's update. I've already pointed this fact out. On May 13 2011 11:58 DropBear wrote: I'm probably unlikely to get killed tonight, I've been wrong way too many times. But just in case, here goes. This may change depending on who dies tonight. He actually forgot me. I was on the Cthazsa train as well, I voted late in defense of Amber. I missed the post by Forumite. It's interesting to say the least. | ||
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DropBear
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Voting AO, at least until he explains himself which he is aggressively avoiding. Is that even proper grammar? I dunno cos its... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-Naa1HXeDQ On May 25 2011 11:50 kitaman27 wrote: Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep. This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion. | ||
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DropBear
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On May 26 2011 11:49 AirbladeOrange wrote: Alright. Lay some questions on me. Let's start with these. Why did you think EM and Mig were Mafia? Why not do analysis on the Kurumi vote list, despite pointing out yourself that it would be a good idea? Why were orgolove and redtooth your number 1 and 2? Why me and kita? On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote: I don't feel like I have much to go by now though because there is too much to go by. What does this even mean? Why are you so quiet? | ||
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DropBear
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On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote: Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately. Wtf? You've got large numbers of posts in almost every forum except this one the last few days. You're obviously active. You worry me man. Yes you are going to be critiqued. But if you are town, stand up and help. We don't have chaoser to lead us anymore we need everyone contributing. Speak up! | ||
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DropBear
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On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote: Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. This doesn't make sense to me really. I would have thought that if you'd cleared someone who has been the topic of a fair amount of discussion you'd want to back him pretty heavily. | ||
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DropBear
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ON ELMIZZT I did analysis on elmizzt on day 3 but it was pretty shitty including misinterpreting two of his posts. With him having caught my eye early and still being alive this late in the game I will try again. Elmizzt has been very quiet. He has 21 posts on day 1. His activity drastically drops after this, with 21 in the next 6 days and 7 nights combined. He has 118 posts on TL this week alone and is obviously active due to him replying to kita extremely quickly. I'm starting to see a few similarities between elmizzt's posting in this game and in Surprisingly Normal Mini 1, in which he was mafia. These might be a little bit of a reach, I'd like second opinions on whether they are relevant or I'm trying too hard to make them fit. SNMM 1 When Scholeosis, the other Mafia member, was under extreme heat Day 2 elmizzt refused to discuss his buddy at all. XXXIX AO is under pressure today. On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote: I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis  I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight. On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote: Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately. In both circumstances he is unwilling to provide solid opinions regarding AO despite the fact that he has obviously been keeping up to date. Assuming AO is scum, this is a similar reaction he had to a teammate being under the pump in SNMM1. Additionally he has several "lol" posts of little to no input in both games. There are only two references to elmizzt from confirmed scum players and both are extremely indirect: GGQ attacking kita who is attacking elmizzt. sinani lists inactive people on day 2 as being suspicious and neglects to include elmizzt who had 3 posts, all of which were in the strange interaction with kita about him blending in. On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote: Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out? This exchange is still strange to me and as far as I am aware was never really explained. Defense of AO. Chooses ilovejonn over AO with no reasoning ilovejonn, despite stating that he is on night shift and is busy, has almost as many posts as these two combined. If AO is lynched and flips red, elmizzt is a good person to go after next. | ||
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DropBear
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On May 27 2011 02:55 AirbladeOrange wrote: I thought EM was mafia because I found other people's analysis to be convincing and the general vibe I got from his posting seemed like he was hiding info for something. Mig I had a suspicion of a while ago and I don't really remember why. He seems to be better now. I didn't feel like doing analysis on Kurumi's voting list. oroglove and redtooth both really turned my off because they each seemed arrogant. Oroglove just stopped posting things he thought were useful and started to do the one liners and "I told you so" type posts. Redtooth did a similar type thing where he seemed to not understand why people didn't see things the way he did, and he seemed to give only chaoser credit. I just felt both were being manipulative. I'm still undecided on who my top suspects are but Kita is because he is an alive vet and you are because I don't underestimate your ability in this game even though you are a fairly new player. But really I don't have much of a clue right now. WTF why? Why this vibe? Why is Mig better now? Why don't you feel like it? You haven't voted yet man. If you end up being a townie I'm gonna be so pissed off at you! | ||
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