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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 21 2011 10:41 jaminz wrote:
I'm not confident enough in my suspicion of orgolove to lynch him over myself. He's at least been active, which isn't something I can say for myself.
If you were town, how is a 0% chance of catching scum with you getting lynched better than an uncertain lynch with orgolove? And you're saying he is active? Maybe day one, but certainly not lately. My vote will be staying on you.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 21 2011 18:58 Forumite wrote:
Correct Lynches:
6:2 night 6
6:1 day 7
5:1 night 7
5:0 day 8 - Town win
1 Mislynch:
6:2 night 6
5:2 day 7
4:2 night 7 - LYLO
4:1 day 8
3:1 night 8
3:0 day 9 - Town win
2 Mislynches
6:2 night 6
5:2 day 7
4:2 night 7 - LYLO
3:2 day 8
2:2 night 8 - Scum win
If I´m correct, and I´m not 100% I am, we have one mislynch left, no more. There is the possibility that there´s a vigi left, but even that will only delay Scum a little, if at all. If the next lynch doesn´t hit scum or identify the rest of scum, then we´re done.
I think you're missing a lynch. It will be 8:2 after night 6, won't it?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 22 2011 01:03 chaos13 wrote:
I was convinced he was town, but I was also somewhat intrigued by how he seemed to attack almost anyone who posted in the beginning of the game. He doesn't outright accuse them of being scum, but generally just pressures them. I would like to get the thoughts of a few other players on him.
Err that's called scum hunting. Why wouldn't I pressure people to see if they slip up?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
....What? Is that a serious post?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Whoa 200+ posts? I think I'll save that for tomorrow -_-
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
I think we need to seriously consider that kita could be mafia, and the likely GF. He is an active, good, veteran player and he hasn't been killed yet. It seems really suspicious to me that the mafia is just going after likely townies and not someone who is a good known player.
You do realize this is probably why I'm still alive right? Scum saw how much I wanted jaminz dead so they allowed me to live until I pushed him and he flipped green and then use the godfather suspicions against me to get me lynched late game, simply because I've played a couple more games than everyone else. That's weak.
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
Along with that his analysis of jaminz and impervious ended up being completely wrong, which looks suspicious coming from a good player.
So if good players are wrong that makes them scum? jaminz and impervious were both acting scummy. I stand by my votes. You even agreed enough to vote for both of them.
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
day2- voted for cth late in the day when the lynch was close between him and amber (could have tried to save a potentially helpful mafia member)
You're ignoring the fact that I was the first person to call a day vig on Amber when I saw how close the lynch was. If both our day vig's weren't completely absent this game, I'm confidant they would have shot. Would a scum really risk losing their best player and a kp when Amber appeared to be relatively safe for another day before the chaoser dt claim?
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
day3- voted sinani
day4- voted sinani - makes him look a bit better but sinani was worthless, would have been a good mafia to vote for to try and build town cred
Again, a scum kp was on the line. At this point you are tunneling as you call all 3 of my votes against scum an "attempt to build town cred".
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
And overall I just have an off feeling about kita's posts.
Yet you conveniently omit any.
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
If orgolove flips red I think we can just about clear ilj and lynch kita.
How does this make sense? How am I connected to orgo?
I'm not sure of the motives behind your post, but either way, it seems that we are in agreement that orgo dies today.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 22 2011 14:34 Mig wrote:
Kita my motivation is that I am trying to find the gf. Who do you think is the godfather? Do you really think they picked like AO or elmizzit as gf?
I think your posts have been mostly pro town other than being wrong about jaminz and impervious.
But look I still think the mafia are much more likely to pick a veteran player to be their gf, looking back through old games 80% of the time they picked an experienced player. The only 2 vets left are you and ilj. If orgolove flips red I don't believe that sinani and him would have just been bussing ilj constantly for the last 4 days. So by process of elimination you are a prime suspect.
And even though you have been wrong how can you deny it isn't suspicious that you are still alive? It is extremely dangerous for mafia to leave a good, active vet alive this late.
I've only ever been scum once and we chose annul as our godfather in his first ever game. The same exact argument was used in Haunted and it ended in a town loss because nobody suspected the newbie. Also, why would scum give me godfather over Amber when it was extremely likely he would be dt checked on night one?
I'm not sure one way or another on AO or elm. I'll have to take a closer look at them in the next cycle. Dropbear is another person I will probably have to further examine. You can use this post to hold me accountable to post my thoughts then.
I won't deny I'm surprised I'm still alive, but scum has clearly been prioritizing their hits on lynchability. There is no chance they are going to hit me over people like chaoser, Cthsazsa, kenpachi, or sandroba who would be nearly impossible to have lynched.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 22 2011 15:00 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2011 14:51 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not sure one way or another on AO or elm. I'll have to take a closer look at them in the next cycle. Dropbear is another person I will probably have to further examine. You can use this post to hold me accountable to post my thoughts then. I suggest you do it today. We pretty much have a free day to discuss, seeing as I doubt anyone will be voting for someone other than orgolove, so we may as well take advantage of it. I'll assume you overlooked my question earlier. What do you think of Mig?
mkk, bedtime now but I'll post my thoughts tomorrow.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 22 2011 15:06 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2011 15:00 chaos13 wrote:On May 22 2011 14:51 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not sure one way or another on AO or elm. I'll have to take a closer look at them in the next cycle. Dropbear is another person I will probably have to further examine. You can use this post to hold me accountable to post my thoughts then. I suggest you do it today. We pretty much have a free day to discuss, seeing as I doubt anyone will be voting for someone other than orgolove, so we may as well take advantage of it. I'll assume you overlooked my question earlier. What do you think of Mig? mkk, bedtime now but I'll post my thoughts tomorrow.
I'll include my thoughts on Mig too after I take a look back at his posts.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
If only we had a priest this game :p
I know I said I would post analysis today, but I'm feeling pretty dead at the moment, so it will come tomorrow. Sorting through hundreds of posts is a pain -_-
Still hoping to hear from dropbear as well.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 23 2011 12:20 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2011 10:26 kitaman27 wrote:
I know I said I would post analysis today, but I'm feeling pretty dead at the moment, so it will come tomorrow. Sorting through hundreds of posts is a pain -_-
Promising to post analysis and then refusing to? Scum.
Twisting my words? Scum.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
chaos13- Townie. It appears likely that Forumite checked him and he has been one of the few people who haven't dropped off the face of the earth. There is a godfather possibility, but his posts don't lead me to believe so.
Mig- Leaning Townie. The best thing going for Mig is his willingness to throw around accusations. Scum usually prefer to let others do the dirty work, rather than get caught up in scum hunting. His posts have been generally pro-town, with the exception of the EternalMisfit lynch and an average voting history.
Xedat-Null Read. I'm torn on Xedat. There isn't anything in particular that makes me feel suspicious about him, but his counter-part Conversion doesn't have a pro-town post to his name. I doubt I would consider voting against him in the upcoming lynch, but I feel as town needs more information about him.
elmizzt-Suspicious. I probably sound like a broken record, but is he really still playing? The entire game he has been lurking hard. I had that weird exchange with him about blending in a while back, but that is really all I have to go by. There isn't exactly a clean argument against him, but he is someone on my radar. He was off on the Amber lynch, but gains some town cred for pushing orgolove early, assuming he pops red.
ilovejonn-Suspicious. I made an argument about him early on in the game about how he was trying to buy town cred, which he didn't deserve. Since then he has been rather quiet, playing a bored townie role. If orgo flips red, he also gains a decent about of town cred due to the whole spreadsheet argument.
I'll probably post my thoughts on DropBear and AO before night hits. I would prefer mafia did not know my opinion of these two at this point as one is rather strong.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 24 2011 17:06 DropBear wrote:
Second Edit lol: Kita is on the list and he is still alive as well actually....
I find it interesting that you list all the people who voted to save Amber, but omit yourself solely due to the fact that your vote came after GMarshal's update.
On May 09 2011 11:15 DropBear wrote:
##Unvote sandroba
##Vote Cthasza
After writing a fairly long argument against AO, I've come across a post that I originally missed that may have changed my mind. I probably won't be able to stay up until 11 tonight to post it before the day post so I will post it tomorrow, assuming I survive the night.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 25 2011 09:41 chaoser wrote:
lol...this game is still going on?
Maybe if you weren't so wrong about EternalMisfit then we wouldn't be in this situation. :p
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 25 2011 10:01 Mig wrote:
Primarily I want to know which AO post possibly changed your mind.
It will probably help mafia more than town if I post it now. If I happen to wake up before 11, I'll post it. No guarantees though. >.<
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 21 2011 13:26 Forumite wrote:
I don´t think AO is scum. He was out scumhinting early, and put many FoS on players who have been confirmed scum since.
Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion.
Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check.
I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.
EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<)
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EPT
