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On May 21 2011 19:12 DropBear wrote:Here on AO. A few things have changed since then though, I had him tied to ilovejonn. He still hasn't really done enough to make me leave him alone tbh.
This has actually furthered my convictions that AO is not scum. Why is that? Because there are two or three points you made that don't quite seem to point to him being scum. I have noticed in my attempts at analysis in mafia games that if there is just one moment while writing something up that I go "hmm...this doesn't make sense if he's scum", then the player is probably a townie.
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I would really appreciate it if everyone looked over kitaman27's posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=kitaman27&gb=date
I was convinced he was town, but I was also somewhat intrigued by how he seemed to attack almost anyone who posted in the beginning of the game. He doesn't outright accuse them of being scum, but generally just pressures them. I would like to get the thoughts of a few other players on him.
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Oh shit. We had a DT. We need to go back and read over his posts again and see what he was saying about players.
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Alright, I'm down to AirbladeOrange, Ilovejonn, and orgolove as candidates for my vote today. The post ilovejonn just quoted makes me think that Forumite hadn't yet checked orgolove, and that he hadn't actually checked a scum. If I was a DT and checked a scum player, I would be pushing for their lynch as hard as I could, complete with full analysis of those players.
I will go back through his posts and find any that might be referring to a DT check.
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Oh lol, many more posts quoted there. I just saw the very last one.
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Looking back at Forumite's votes, he was the first on sinani206 on both day 3 and 4. He was also the first on orgolove day 5 and 6. Checking over his posts now. There's a lot of them -.-
I'll report my findings when I'm done.
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Who I think Forumite checked:
Night 1 - Beneather
Night 2 - GGQ
Night 3 - chaos13
Night 4 - sinani206
Night 5 - orgolove
Night 6 - N/A
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^^that is all based on every one of forumite's posts from night 1 onward, who he attacked, who he defended, etc.
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I never even thought of that -.- GG town lol
I really hope orgolove isn't a miller. I'm just going to go ahead and vote him now. I think the other scum is either AO or ilovejonn
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elmizzt, Xedat, and Mig, what do you think of AirbladeOrange?
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On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
I was very suspicious of AO before for how little he has contributed but now I am not so sure.
What made your opinion on him change?
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On May 22 2011 14:05 Mig wrote:
And if orgolove does flip miller we really have to consider why the mafia would kill formite instead of kita.
Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite.
If orgolove flips red I think it mostly clears ilj and we can safely lynch kita.
If orgolove flips miller we still lynch kita because then it doesn't really make sense for them to kill formite and let kita live.
And what do we do if orgolove flips vanilla townie?
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I have a few problems with what you're saying:
-You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it
-You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town
-You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather.
Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum.
AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig?
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On May 22 2011 14:05 Mig wrote:Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite.
There are a few reasons they may have killed Forumite.
1. To send town into WIFOM - "He was pushing hard for orgolove, we should kill him."
2. orgolove is scum, and they didn't want the lynch leader alive for another day.
3. They picked up on a huge blue tell, as quoted.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 07:04 Forumite wrote:
Keeping with Sandrobas suggestion, I´m checking Amber and Cthsazsa. Unfortunately I can´t get a good read on them.
About Amber. Reluctant to point fingers. Talks a bit about Chaoser, but mostly defending himself. Calling attention to the nightkills. Would have lurked much better unless tunneled by Chaoser.
Vote on Kurumi for the weak posting. Good music in his Profile.
OMGUS: Wall-of-text'ed Chaoser, not a real Omgus but that wall was almost as scary as Redtooths rules.
Took no votes at all during Day 1, but tunneling from Chaoser.
Cthsazsa, initially no real accusations, talking about inactives and how noone looks scummy. Claims noobtown. Soon starts with FoS. Objects to redtooth and his rules. Defends himself by brushing away accusations or being rude. Not afraid to get attention.
FoS and votes on: AO, Conversion, Irish, Beneather, Forumite, VarpuliS
OMGUS on: Conversion, Chaoser, possible others
2nd most votes Day 1 (5 after Kurumis 13)
Fun fact: Jackal who voted on Cth died.
_________________
Crude postcheck, I probably missed a lot of things against them. Right now I get red/bluetell from Amber, red/green from Cthsazsa. A lot of it depends on who you decide are obvTown, because the accusers are more or less the same for both. With Cth battling or accusing Conversion, Irish, two scummy players, makes me doubt the idea of lynching either of them.
I´m having trouble backing a lynch on Cthsazsa OR Amber, and will keep my vote on Irish for now.
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On May 22 2011 14:47 Mig wrote:
1. Do you really believe this is true? Forumite has argued for and voted for ogolove for 2 days straight if he was still alive he would still be pushing orgolove. If orgolove is town they would want forumite alive. Instead they could have easily killed kita who is a pro town vet. The only reason for them to kill forumite if orgolove was town is if they didn't have another good option to kill but kita is right there.
2. Right if orgolove is scum gives perfect motivation for forumites death.
3. I doubt this is the case. If they picked up on a blue tell they probably would have killed him much sooner. That post is from like day2.
1. Probably not, but it is still a possibility
2. Is the most likely
3. There is no way to tell for sure. They could have gone looking back through the thread to see if they could find a blue tell.
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On May 22 2011 14:51 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not sure one way or another on AO or elm. I'll have to take a closer look at them in the next cycle. Dropbear is another person I will probably have to further examine. You can use this post to hold me accountable to post my thoughts then.
I suggest you do it today. We pretty much have a free day to discuss, seeing as I doubt anyone will be voting for someone other than orgolove, so we may as well take advantage of it.
I'll assume you overlooked my question earlier. What do you think of Mig?
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On May 22 2011 16:18 Mig wrote:
ILJ and AO both voted recently. What are your guy's thoughts on me/kita?
Who do you think is suspicious / want lynched after orgolove?
Chaos what are your thoughts on me and kita?
kitaman27 - I am quite sure that he is town at this point. It is rather strange that a veteran player would still be alive at this point, but if I'm not mistaken, ilovejonn and one other (AO?) are relatively experienced as well. I had a strange feeling about him earlier, and went back to make a case against him as being scum, and I was nowhere near convinced by my own argument. His posting has been consistently pro-town.
Mig - You are one of the player who didn't quite stand out to me as much. I looked back through your posts and figured you were town. It took me a little while to find where forumite was pushing orgolove so hard, so I thought it odd that you were pushing for orgolove's lynch so hard. I decided to put a little pressure on you, and you responded well enough for my suspicions to be allayed. I am still not entirely sure that you are town, but I think you're more likely town than scum.
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On May 22 2011 19:32 orgolove wrote:
Hm. If Forumite actually checked me he probably wouldn't have kept accusing me.
Still.
I'm holding my vote on ilj. And I made my point plenty of times why my vote is on it. Don't make me repeat myself.
An up to date post analysis would be helpful. If you start acting pro-town enough you might actually make me believe you're a miller.
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On May 22 2011 16:40 elmizzt wrote:
I voted orgolove last cycle, and I will do so again based on the same reasoning as before. Forumite's role reveal only strengthens my belief that org is scum.
On May 22 2011 21:35 Xedat wrote:
Second of all, I don't think kita is scummy only because he is alive, as mafia kills the people that are most trustorthy and not the ones that are most veteran.
All lynches after todays greatly depend on weather or not orgolove is mafia.
What do you two think of AirbladeOrange?
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On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Next in line are probably DropBear and Kita, maybe jaminz.
Why? (jaminz is dead btw)
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EPT
