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I looked through like the last 120 of forumite's posts. It is very very obvious that he checked orgolove and he came back red.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 11 2011 22:27 Forumite wrote:ANALYSIS: Why orgolove is Scum ____________ Early posts. + Show Spoiler +Defending confirmed scumOn May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote:
Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly. Diverting attention to TownOn page 35, after EM posted his excelsheet, orgolove posted that the ones who looked suspicious to him was EM, chaoser, kurumi (and DropBear), two of which are confirmed [green]Town[green]. On May 06 2011 04:15 orgolove wrote:
Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22. On May 06 2011 04:20 orgolove wrote:
Oh and 17 too. Trying to look helpfullNothing came of this, even though the spreadsheet could be easily recreated. On May 06 2011 04:23 orgolove wrote:
Can you give me this spreadsheet? I may have some pattern recognition software that I might be able to gather, and coordinate the time of the accusatory posts with the contents to see if a particular group of players (reds) were on-line and accusing the same person at around the same point in time. ____________ Tunneling on helpfull Town-leader, redtooth+ Show Spoiler +Following are a few posts that implicate redtooth as scum, 9 of them. After the first 5 posts against redtooth, he suddenly becomes convinced redtooth is Town, but quickly after, he posts 4 times urging a lynch on redtooth, including a ##Vote. On May 07 2011 09:30 orgolove wrote:He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended). Trying to save Amber by lynching a probable Town as an information-lynchOn May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote:
I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute. During Night 2, just 15minutes before the daypost. It didn´t show us anything that the voting thread didn´t allready show. Seriously, the post contained NO usefull data. On May 10 2011 11:47 orgolove wrote:
This is in progress - I'm posting this just in case I'm killed in the night (though not likely)
[url blocked]
The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers. ____________ First attempt at analysis, during day 3. + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473The analysis was full of conditions that turn Cthsazsas from +1 to -17, conditions easily tweaked, added or removed to get the desired outcome, or even asking his scumbuddies to vote in a way that makes them look Town to his conditions. This is also referenced later to try and get DropBear lynched. He sends out his FoS, summarized in the next spoiler Focused accusations. Has been trying to get these lynched since Day 1
FoS DropBear 6
FoS Ilovejonn 2
FoS AirbladeOrange 2
FoS VarpuliS 2
FoS Eternalmisfit 2
FoS redtooth 9
Votes on helpfull Town-leaders, Town, and one post on Amber, which he milked for Town-points.
Votes!
Day 1
##Vote Redtooth ##unvote
##Vote: Chaoser ##unvote
##Vote: Kurumi
Day 2
##Vote: Redtooth ##unvote
##vote: Amber[Light] -(tieing Amber with Cthsazsa, for which his analysis makes him more Town)
Day 3
##Vote: ilovejonn ____________ His latest post, which was 27h ago. He´s confident that Town will mislynch, so he´s been lurking ever since, there´s no need to interfere. Show nested quote +On May 10 2011 18:39 orgolove wrote:
Hm. All right - I won't claim my effort as of now is 100% flawless, as after all, it's only dealing with two days worth of data.
It's really late - good night. ____________ Conclusion+ Show Spoiler +Unhelpfull analysis, the few times he gives it, voting on Confirmed Town or in a way that is used only to gain Town-credit. Defends Irish and Amber. Lurks now that noone is thinking about lynching him. Scum.
This post was on page 83 so for the last 35 pages forumite has been pushing orgolove. There is a 0% chance he wouldn't have checked him in this time frame.
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I am very concerned about millers. But forumite has been pushing orgolove the hardest of anyone besides ilj.
I know forumite was pretty close to confirmed town after he pushed sinani for so long but if I were mafia I probably would have let him live if orgolove was town.
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I am pretty confident he checked you also chaos but I wasn't going to mention it since I didn't want to make you the next target lol.
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I was very suspicious of AO before for how little he has contributed but now I am not so sure.
I think we need to seriously consider that kita could be mafia, and the likely GF. He is an active, good, veteran player and he hasn't been killed yet. It seems really suspicious to me that the mafia is just going after likely townies and not someone who is a good known player.
Along with that his analysis of jaminz and impervious ended up being completely wrong, which looks suspicious coming from a good player.
If you look at his voting
day1- voted for irish late in the day when it didn't matter (a good way to get town cred for voting for an unhelpful mafia member)
day2- voted for cth late in the day when the lynch was close between him and amber (could have tried to save a potentially helpful mafia member)
day3- voted sinani
day4- voted sinani - makes him look a bit better but sinani was worthless, would have been a good mafia to vote for to try and build town cred
day 5- voted impervious (town)
day 6 - voted jaminz (town)
And overall I just have an off feeling about kita's posts.
I just don't really buy that mafia made AO or elmizzit gf and xedat having to be replaced is almost certainly not. There is a small chance they could have made chaos or db gf, but I think db is still too inexperienced to get picked and this is chaos' first game on tl. So I think either ilj or kita must be the gf. And after rereading iljs posts I get more of a town feel from him. If orgolove flips red I think we can just about clear ilj and lynch kita. If orgolove flips miller then we should decide between those 2 for who we should lynch.
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And if orgolove does flip miller we really have to consider why the mafia would kill formite instead of kita.
Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite.
If orgolove flips red I think it mostly clears ilj and we can safely lynch kita.
If orgolove flips miller we still lynch kita because then it doesn't really make sense for them to kill formite and let kita live.
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On May 22 2011 14:00 chaos13 wrote:
What made your opinion on him change?
Ah I worded it a bit wrong, I am still suspicious of AO. But if you look at AO/db/elmizzit they all have suspicious things about them. I think there is a decent chance one of them is mafia but there is a high likelihood that we would mislynch trying to find them.
We have a better chance of lynching a mafia at this point by focusing on trying to find the gf (after orgolove).
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On May 22 2011 14:11 chaos13 wrote:
And what do we do if orgolove flips vanilla townie?
We kill ourselves because our DT inexplicably just tunneled and voted for someone twice without checking them.
I think the odds of that are so low I wouldn't even give it serious thought before it actually happened.
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On May 22 2011 14:19 chaos13 wrote:
I have a few problems with what you're saying:
-You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it
-You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town
-You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather.
Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum.
AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig?
Orgolove can't be gf if we assume that he came back as red for forumites dt check. If you look at my last long post where I talked about suspects I thought he was a likely gf candidate before this.
I voted for amber who was also mafia. But I agree my voting is still somewhat suspicious.
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Kita my motivation is that I am trying to find the gf. Who do you think is the godfather? Do you really think they picked like AO or elmizzit as gf?
I think your posts have been mostly pro town other than being wrong about jaminz and impervious.
But look I still think the mafia are much more likely to pick a veteran player to be their gf, looking back through old games 80% of the time they picked an experienced player. The only 2 vets left are you and ilj. If orgolove flips red I don't believe that sinani and him would have just been bussing ilj constantly for the last 4 days. So by process of elimination you are a prime suspect.
And even though you have been wrong how can you deny it isn't suspicious that you are still alive? It is extremely dangerous for mafia to leave a good, active vet alive this late.
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deny it is suspicious I mean
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On May 22 2011 14:40 chaos13 wrote:There are a few reasons they may have killed Forumite. 1. To send town into WIFOM - "He was pushing hard for orgolove, we should kill him." 2. orgolove is scum, and they didn't want the lynch leader alive for another day. 3. They picked up on a huge blue tell, as quoted. + Show Spoiler +On May 08 2011 07:04 Forumite wrote:
Keeping with Sandrobas suggestion, I´m checking Amber and Cthsazsa. Unfortunately I can´t get a good read on them.
About Amber. Reluctant to point fingers. Talks a bit about Chaoser, but mostly defending himself. Calling attention to the nightkills. Would have lurked much better unless tunneled by Chaoser.
Vote on Kurumi for the weak posting. Good music in his Profile.
OMGUS: Wall-of-text'ed Chaoser, not a real Omgus but that wall was almost as scary as Redtooths rules.
Took no votes at all during Day 1, but tunneling from Chaoser.
Cthsazsa, initially no real accusations, talking about inactives and how noone looks scummy. Claims noobtown. Soon starts with FoS. Objects to redtooth and his rules. Defends himself by brushing away accusations or being rude. Not afraid to get attention.
FoS and votes on: AO, Conversion, Irish, Beneather, Forumite, VarpuliS
OMGUS on: Conversion, Chaoser, possible others
2nd most votes Day 1 (5 after Kurumis 13)
Fun fact: Jackal who voted on Cth died.
_________________
Crude postcheck, I probably missed a lot of things against them. Right now I get red/bluetell from Amber, red/green from Cthsazsa. A lot of it depends on who you decide are obvTown, because the accusers are more or less the same for both. With Cth battling or accusing Conversion, Irish, two scummy players, makes me doubt the idea of lynching either of them.
I´m having trouble backing a lynch on Cthsazsa OR Amber, and will keep my vote on Irish for now.
1. Do you really believe this is true? Forumite has argued for and voted for ogolove for 2 days straight if he was still alive he would still be pushing orgolove. If orgolove is town they would want forumite alive. Instead they could have easily killed kita who is a pro town vet. The only reason for them to kill forumite if orgolove was town is if they didn't have another good option to kill but kita is right there.
2. Right if orgolove is scum gives perfect motivation for forumites death.
3. I doubt this is the case. If they picked up on a blue tell they probably would have killed him much sooner. That post is from like day2.
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On May 22 2011 14:17 kitaman27 wrote:
You do realize this is probably why I'm still alive right? Scum saw how much I wanted jaminz dead so they allowed me to live until I pushed him and he flipped green and then use the godfather suspicions against me to get me lynched late game, simply because I've played a couple more games than everyone else. That's weak.
A couple more games is a bit of an understatement. This is my 2nd game, this is elmizzit's 1st, AOs 2nd, dbs 2nd, chaos 1st on tl, conversions I think 3rd. You and ilj are way way more experienced than the remaining players.
I've only ever been scum once and we chose annul as our godfather in his first ever game. The same exact argument was used in Haunted and it ended in a town loss because nobody suspected the newbie. Also, why would scum give me godfather over Amber when it was extremely likely he would be dt checked on night one?
I agree my argument isn't 100% but in the history of tl mafia it is more likely for vets to be picked. And the part about amber applies to everyone still left in the game.
So my argument isn't just 100% omg you are the last vet you must be gf but it's the fact that A) its more likely for vet's to be chosen than newbs B) you are a good vet and yet you are still alive in the game while inexperienced players (varp and forumite) are being killed C) you were on the wrong side of the huge amber/cth lynch and you were incorrect on impervious and jaminz when you are a skilled player.
None of it is solid evidence but I think all of it combined makes you look pretty suspicious to me.
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ILJ and AO both voted recently. What are your guy's thoughts on me/kita?
Who do you think is suspicious / want lynched after orgolove?
Chaos what are your thoughts on me and kita?
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On May 22 2011 16:40 elmizzt wrote:
I voted orgolove last cycle, and I will do so again based on the same reasoning as before. Forumite's role reveal only strengthens my belief that org is scum.
The orgolove vote is obvious and everyone will vote him. But who do you plan on voting for after his lynch?
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Yea AO/db/ilj/elmizzit all voted without taking any relevant stances :/. I would like to hear kita's thoughts on everyone.
Like I said before I am not 100% that kita is scum but with this few people in the game we should be discussing all possibilities and not take anything for granted. And I would like to hear everyone's opinion on it.
Would anyone have a problem if we moved the lynch up to tonight, instead of tomorrow? It seems a lot of people are just going to wait until after orgolove is killed before actually saying anything. If that is the case we might as well get it over with instead of just sitting here for a day. Especially since everyone has already voted.
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Jonn by taking a stance I meant besides on orgolove. Everyone is going to vote orgolove it is obviously the correct play. But after orgolove who do you plan on voting for? Who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town? These are the things we should be discussing because orgolove is pretty much a dead issue.
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Even tho orgolove wasn't red I mean it was obvious the town had to lynch him. He could only be miller/mafia after it was clear that forumite checked him. When we lynched him we all knew there was a big risk he was miller.
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One of the main things that has really crippled town this game is just the complete lack of townies defending themselves. Jaminz, impervious sacrificed themselves pointlessly and orgolove did nothing along with every post of his was about as anti town as possible.
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Chaos almost always either you or I will be killed tonight, most likely you unfortunately. So we should discuss who we think should be lynched tomorrow. I expect AO and elmizzit to remain completely useless and post pretty much nothing. This night might be the last chance for any real discussion to happen.
And I don't think it matters if the mafia know who we are considering it's not like there was any chance they were going to kill AO/ilj anyway.
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On May 24 2011 13:24 DropBear wrote:
I guess miller was an apt role for him. RIP orgolove.
I think we should keep it quiet tonight guys. Mafia will be trying to avoid taking out people that are found suspicious. Keep your analysis to the morning, or post it at the very last second of the night.
Why would we keep quiet? Mafia is not gonna kill you/elmizzit/ao/ilj tonight regardless of what we say. We should not be quiet when one of the only active people left is going to be killed. We need to discuss what our best play is now while we have the chance.
If we keep quiet you are going to quickly find yourself trying to scum hunt with people who have posted 3 times in the last 2 days.
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EPT
