• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 10:27
CEST 16:27
KST 23:27
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Siren's Call8[ASL22] Ro24 Preview: Summer's End9Serral wins HomeStory Cup 2915Serral wins Maestros of the Game 244ByuL, and the Limitations of Standard Play3
Community News
Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20)5Weekly Cups (August 24-30): Patches' balance mod takes over2New 3v3 BGH Ladder (and more) on ShieldBattery!38Weekly Cups (August 17-23): Zerg dominate the week6Weekly Cups (August 10-16): SHIN doubles3
StarCraft 2
General
Weekly Cups (August 10-16): SHIN doubles Weekly Cups (August 24-30): Patches' balance mod takes over SC4ALL II: SC2 Player Announcement 6/8 - Maru How would you feel about frequent/monthly balance patches for SC2? Weekly Cups (August 17-23): Zerg dominate the week
Tourneys
Stellar Fest TWO the Moon (Dec 16-20) 2026 GSTL Announcement PIG STY FESTIVAL 8.0! (13 - 23 August) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament IntoTheTV X SOOP SC2 League : Weekly & Monthly
Strategy
[G] Having the right mentality to improve
Custom Maps
Nexus Wars 2021 GUIDE [M] (2) Industrial Park
External Content
Mutation # 541 Binary Choice The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 540 Dodge This Mutation # 539 Thunder Dome
Brood War
General
ASL22 General Discussion Which box art did your first copy of StarCraft 1 have? BW General Discussion New 3v3 BGH Ladder (and more) on ShieldBattery! XUN appreciation thread
Tourneys
Escore Tournament - Season 3 [ASL22] Ro24 Group F BSL LAN Party - Kraków 29-30 August - OPEN SIGNUPS [Megathread] Daily Proleagues
Strategy
Replay Review Process - What do you do? Game Theory for Starcraft Odyssey Mineral Stack Saturation Fighting Spirit mining rates
Other Games
General Games
General RTS Discussion Thread Nintendo Switch Thread Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Anyone here play Quakeworld back in the day? EVE Corporation
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
[TL LoL EUW IHs] Teemo shall perish TSM pausing esports and CLG Dead
Heroes of the Storm
Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Power Rank TL Mafia Community Thread NeO.D_StephenKing vs This Guy From 1 Million Dance
Community
General
Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
MarineLorD Fan Club The Creator Fan Club The ShoWTimE Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
Football (Soccer) Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 MLB/Baseball 2023 NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Northern Ireland Global Starcraft
Blogs
Regacy Esports: The Bh…
regacyesports
Violent Games and Crime Rate…
TrAiDoS
LOCKPICKING NOOB
LUCKY_NOOB
Cathedral Of CS And NY pizza a…
FuDDx
Please support my new stand…
Peanutsc
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 6986 users

TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 Next All
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 22 2011 07:40 GMT
#2372
I voted orgolove last cycle, and I will do so again based on the same reasoning as before. Forumite's role reveal only strengthens my belief that org is scum.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 25 2011 23:10 GMT
#2450
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:
This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion.


Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check.

I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.


EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<)

I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis

I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 25 2011 23:43 GMT
#2452
Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 28 2011 08:36 GMT
#2525
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

Show nested quote +
On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.

d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 28 2011 09:49 GMT
#2529
On May 28 2011 18:32 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.


Lol. That first post wasn't a defence. It was clarifying something I didn't understand.

Smelling blood? How does a scum person get really excited when they kill their own teammate?

Plus look at my posts. I've been overexcited the entire game, not just about killing kita. I posted a scum team with 7 people on it in day 1 lol.

I've been saying I trusted Mig for the last several days. I also posted a big analysis of you yesterday mate.

You wanted to look away from ilovejonn? Why?

1. It completely was a defense. You questioned kita's actions as not mafia-like. Of course, it was extremely weak and obvious, but that was your intention. You just needed a quick post of any content to bus him with.
2. You get excited when you kill your own teammate because it gives you the necessary town-cred to influence the next game-winning lynch.
3. It was more than just the overexcitement. This is different. You're pushing hard to close the book on kita in order to gain the aforementioned town cred.
4. Nice. I trust mig too.
5. I already stated why I wanted to look away from ilj. In case it wasn't clear, the quietness when the focus was on ilj/ao speaks to mafia feeling comfortable enough that they have no need to intervene to influence town opinions. Therefore, it would follow that ilj looks towny.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 29 2011 08:33 GMT
#2605
On May 29 2011 12:08 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:
I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum.

Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes.

On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (:


On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
On May 05 2011 08:13 Jackal58 wrote:
On May 05 2011 07:13 Cthsazsa wrote:
Why would we vote off inactives? We should leave them be. If they are mafia, well they aren't that much of a threat to us since they're not participating. On the other hand, if they're a townie then that'll just put a crutch in us. We'll lose a townie, PLUS we'd have wasted our votes.

People insisting that we vote off inactives just seems suspicious to me.

Scum aren't a threat????
I know where my vote is going.


Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.


The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away.

On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him?

##Vote: Beneather

This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.


Hey look, the scum are giving each other pats on the back for their analysis! How cute.


Well, beneather had stated that he was going to be "extremely active" then suddenly disappears once roles were distributed. At the time, this was the first argument that I felt wasn't based mostly on conjecture, which is why I backed it.

On May 29 2011 12:08 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:53 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:52 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:47 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:
I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum.

Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes.

On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (:


On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
[quote]

Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.


The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away.

On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him?

##Vote: Beneather

This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.


Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in...


And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid.


Heh looks who's talking? You've got one post yourself this cycle. You mentioned you would post your thoughts tomorrow evening. We're still waiting.

On May 08 2011 11:38 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:
I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum.

Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes.

On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (:


On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
[quote]

Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.


The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away.

On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him?

##Vote: Beneather

This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.


Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in...

Yea, I'm not a heavy poster in mafia, but I read everything.

And don't you think posting less would be sticking out, and posting more blending in?


No, posting less allows you to lurk with the 10 others that have only a handful of posts, including the guy you just voted against, Beneather. Posting more allows us to have a better idea of where you stand and will eventually result in scum slips if you are red.

Then why did I stick out to you?


Because I'm looking for scum. Are you concerned about sticking out?

Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out?


The weirdest exchange in the entire thread. I call elm out for lurking and he responds that "posting less would be sticking out". How does this make any sense whatsoever? Does nobody else find this incredibly odd?


My beef here is more with the general application of lurker=mafia to every single situation. Explain to me this: if posting less is blending in, why did I seem more suspicious to you based on a low post count? Seems to me I stuck out more to you in this situation because I was posting less. When I asked you to clarify this contradiction, you dodged the question. Not that I blame you, as this is more of a theoretical dispute, not really relevant I guess. take it for what you will, I'm happy to discuss this further if anyone likes

On May 29 2011 12:08 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 16 2011 11:13 elmizzt wrote:
On May 15 2011 14:19 orgolove wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Here's the spreadsheet with updated vote results.

http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsx


First, the criteria again:
[image loading]


Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red.
[image loading]

[image loading]


Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that.

[image loading]

[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]
How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol


Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha)

Here's the summary.
[image loading]


I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia.

To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds.

Look dude, I appreciate your efforts with this statistical analysis, but the bottom line is, there is no way the conclusions can be accurate. Beyond the influence of intentional red manipulation, you simply don't have enough data to go on. Your sample size is pitifully small. It's not your fault, just a symptom of the game. It is far more beneficial to reach conclusions based on post content.


Discredits the spreadsheets since they implicate his buddy jonn.

I discredited the spreadsheets because they were complete horseshit lol. It's just straight up statistically invalid.

On May 29 2011 12:08 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 26 2011 04:49 DropBear wrote:
This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion.


Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check.

I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.


EBWOP: AO or ilovejonn (unless he wants to lynch himself >.<)

I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis

I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.


So you're saying you spent 2 hours yet refuse to make an opinion on anything?

Scummy, scummy, scummy. Everyone re-read this post.

Show nested quote +
On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote:
Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately.


Show nested quote +
On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.
On May 28 2011 15:23 DropBear wrote:
Well well well. Kita needs an explanation.

The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1?

This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:

On May 28 2011 15:55 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game.

The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active.

I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir!


More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :
On May 28 2011 16:20 DropBear wrote:
Ya, I was going to say elmizzt as well. Despite their wierd interaction on Day 2 they haven't gone after each other at all.

On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.


They voted together yesterday incidentally.


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.
On May 28 2011 17:05 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

Alright done.

Let's kill these motherfuckers.





On May 28 2011 16:30 DropBear wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:
On May 28 2011 16:22 DropBear wrote:
There is this just before Xedat's death though...

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!


Which part of that post worries you?

The fact that he's fingering elmizzt.

But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it

Let's do this!


DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.



Bam. Hook, line, and sinker. These are consecutive posts. He goes from "not having anything to say" to jumping right on the kita bandwagon. All I have to say is LOL.

Don't expect to hear from him again this cycle either. It's pretty obvious he is reading though. Dirty lurker.


Um, the "not having anything to say" was more of an explanation of why I hadn't posted much previously, and not a projection of future intentions. Also, yea you say that these were consecutive posts, but you fail to take into account that they were 57 (!) hours apart, and during that period, AO was mislynched, throwing town into turmoil.

I'm going to try to clarify my position: Yes. I haven't posted much. Why? I don't like to post on conjecture. I find it difficult to make an argument unless I'm completely (or very close to completely ) sure of my statements. I'm not the best creating analysis, but when focused, I'm more than happy to dismantle the bs that people come up with. With the fewer numbers of players in the game, and more variables taken out, it's become much easier for me to post, because I can do so with a much higher confidence level in my beliefs.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 29 2011 08:40 GMT
#2607
On May 29 2011 14:56 DropBear wrote:
This game needs moar roleclaims

I don't really understand this, so if you could please clarify what the purpose of everyone roleclaiming would be, I'm interested to hear

btw mig, if you don't mind, my name is spelled elmizzt, not elmizzit please! <3
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 29 2011 08:45 GMT
#2609
On May 29 2011 17:40 Mig wrote:
So you are going to leave your vote on kita I assume elmizzit? Do you still think DB is the other mafia?

Also if you end up being town I am going to hate you forever.

Yes. Yes. aw sorry

On May 29 2011 17:41 Mig wrote:
haha my bad, maybe if you posted more actively I wouldn't confuse it.


LOL low blow. Guess I deserve that.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 01:26 GMT
#2617
sen so beast. drewbies army just melted
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 01:28 GMT
#2618
On May 30 2011 10:26 elmizzt wrote:
sen so beast. drewbies army just melted

LOL oops wrong thread
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 01:38 GMT
#2620
On May 30 2011 02:45 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2011 17:33 elmizzt wrote:
Um, the "not having anything to say" was more of an explanation of why I hadn't posted much previously, and not a projection of future intentions. Also, yea you say that these were consecutive posts, but you fail to take into account that they were 57 (!) hours apart, and during that period, AO was mislynched, throwing town into turmoil.


You're digging your own grave. Two consecutive posts, 57 hours (!) apart? Talk about lurking hard. Yet when we question you, you show up in ten minutes? Now that you saw I was up for lynch, you jumped on the opportunity to cement your victory. Problem is, you were too greedy.

lol. kita keeps jumping and dodging arguments. bouncing back and forth between stances.

Your original argument was that my stance switched very quickly between two consecutive posts. I responded that they were actually very far apart in terms of time and circumstance. You responded by dodging, and making statements that I have already explained. nice try =/
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 01:56 GMT
#2623
On May 30 2011 10:51 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2011 10:28 elmizzt wrote:
On May 30 2011 10:26 elmizzt wrote:
sen so beast. drewbies army just melted

LOL oops wrong thread


Show nested quote +
On May 30 2011 10:38 elmizzt wrote:
On May 30 2011 02:45 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 29 2011 17:33 elmizzt wrote:
Um, the "not having anything to say" was more of an explanation of why I hadn't posted much previously, and not a projection of future intentions. Also, yea you say that these were consecutive posts, but you fail to take into account that they were 57 (!) hours apart, and during that period, AO was mislynched, throwing town into turmoil.


You're digging your own grave. Two consecutive posts, 57 hours (!) apart? Talk about lurking hard. Yet when we question you, you show up in ten minutes? Now that you saw I was up for lynch, you jumped on the opportunity to cement your victory. Problem is, you were too greedy.

lol. kita keeps jumping and dodging arguments. bouncing back and forth between stances.

Your original argument was that my stance switched very quickly between two consecutive posts. I responded that they were actually very far apart in terms of time and circumstance. You responded by dodging, and making statements that I have already explained. nice try =/


Haha even further evidence that you are lurking so hard. The fact that you felt it necessary to respond to one of my random points shows that you don't want to look bad for accidentally posting in the thread.

Why do you keep stating that i am lurking hard like it's some grand revelation lol.
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 02:59 GMT
#2630
On May 30 2011 11:58 DropBear wrote:
GUYS VOTE ELMIZZT

d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:01 GMT
#2634
On May 30 2011 12:01 ilovejonn wrote:
fine

wtf
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:03 GMT
#2638
On May 30 2011 12:02 Varpulis wrote:
wait, wasn't the night post supposed to come, like, 2 minutes ago? will that vote count?

Desperately want to know the answer to this question >.>
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:04 GMT
#2641
On May 30 2011 12:03 elmizzt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2011 12:02 Varpulis wrote:
wait, wasn't the night post supposed to come, like, 2 minutes ago? will that vote count?

Desperately want to know the answer to this question >.>

ah, the vote was on the hour
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:10 GMT
#2644
On May 30 2011 12:09 GMarshal wrote:
this is not the night post

lol this is funny cause I'm the only player that knows what node is writing
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:16 GMT
#2650
GG
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:18 GMT
#2653
On May 30 2011 12:16 ilovejonn wrote:
Way to play a veteran elmizzt, thanks for the win.

lol

sorry. =/
d=(^_^)z
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 30 2011 03:19 GMT
#2658
On May 30 2011 12:18 kitaman27 wrote:
GG Town.

Nice job sticking with your gut Mig.

Don't feel too bad DropBear, you clearly put a lot of effort into the game. Once you start getting things right you will be a strong player.

Sorry if I came off hard on you elm, I still <3 you. You just happened to be the easiest to pick on.

<3
d=(^_^)z
Prev 1 2 3 4 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
OSC
13:00
King of the Hill #261
EmpressLilyy36
Liquipedia
GSL
11:00
2026 GSTL: Main Stage Day 4
IntoTheiNu 1230
CranKy Ducklings SOOP209
Rex36
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Maru 71
SHIN 60
herO (SOOP) 36
Rex 36
Zoun (SOOP) 24
Trap 18
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 43887
Calm 5978
Shuttle 2987
Bisu 2392
EffOrt 636
Horang2 502
Light 474
BeSt 410
Mini 394
Larva 372
[ Show more ]
Soulkey 291
Snow 241
Rush 231
Stork 211
Hyuk 196
Mong 156
Sea.KH 88
Dewaltoss 84
Leta 73
Mind 73
Zeus 72
Pusan 59
ToSsGirL 46
Barracks 42
Sexy 28
soO 27
Aegong 22
NotJumperer 22
Shine 19
sorry 19
Terrorterran 18
Hm[arnc] 18
Rock 13
zelot 13
ajuk12(nOOB) 13
Sacsri 13
SilentControl 12
Noble 10
Dota 2
Gorgc5289
qojqva3067
syndereN1586
Dendi1483
Counter-Strike
zeus551
Other Games
singsing1654
hiko845
B2W.Neo738
Lowko321
OGKoka 123
RotterdaM109
Pyrionflax72
ArmadaUGS68
Mew2King64
QueenE27
Organizations
Other Games
BasetradeTV22
[ Show 10 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Nemesis3573
• TFBlade892
Upcoming Events
PiGosaur Cup
9h 33m
Kung Fu Cup
20h 33m
Replay Cast
1d 9h
The PondCast
1d 19h
IntoTheTV X SOOP
2 days
CranKy Ducklings
3 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
4 days
OSC
4 days
Afreeca Starleague
5 days
Soma vs Shuttle
BeSt vs Rush
WardiTV Weekly
5 days
[ Show More ]
Afreeca Starleague
6 days
Leta vs ggaemo
Jaedong vs Queen
GSL
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

BSL 2026 LAN: Kraków
PiG Sty Festival 8.0
Light Tournament 2026

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 3
K-JUNGMAN
ASL Season 22
Super Anchor Qualifying S3
CSL 2026 AUTUMN (S22)
RSL Revival: Season 6
Big Dog Cup 2026 Div 1
BLAST Open Fall 2026
Esports World Cup 2026
Esports World Cup 2026: LCQ
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
BLAST Bounty Summer Qual
Stake Ranked Episode 3
XSE Pro League 2026
IEM Cologne Major 2026

Upcoming

Acropolis #5
Acropolis #5 - TRS
Escore Tournament S3: King of Kings
Blizzard Classic Cup 2026
Acropolis #5 - GSA
Acropolis #5 - GSB
Acropolis #5 - GSC
HSC XXX
SC4ALL II: StarCraft II
Kung Fu Cup 2026 Grand Finals
RSL Offline Finals
Calamity Invitational
BLAST Rivals Fall 2026
IEM Beijing 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 5
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
1win Private Club #2
Thunderpick World Champ. '26
ESL Pro League Season 24
Stake Ranked Episode 4
1win Private Club #1
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
SL StarSeries Fall 2026
FISSURE Playground #3
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.