TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 10

On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote:
But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments.

You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched.

This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies.

On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way?

I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change.

On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote:
Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_-

I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town!

On May 28 2011 16:24 Mig wrote:


Which part of that post worries you?

On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote:
Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left.

For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now.

On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote:
The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear.

First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good.

However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch.

Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it.


Mig smashes it, as DB had expected.

DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig:



More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" :


The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play.




DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous.

On May 28 2011 18:49 elmizzt wrote:

1. It completely was a defense. You questioned kita's actions as not mafia-like. Of course, it was extremely weak and obvious, but that was your intention. You just needed a quick post of any content to bus him with.
2. You get excited when you kill your own teammate because it gives you the necessary town-cred to influence the next game-winning lynch.
3. It was more than just the overexcitement. This is different. You're pushing hard to close the book on kita in order to gain the aforementioned town cred.
4. Nice. I trust mig too.
5. I already stated why I wanted to look away from ilj. In case it wasn't clear, the quietness when the focus was on ilj/ao speaks to mafia feeling comfortable enough that they have no need to intervene to influence town opinions. Therefore, it would follow that ilj looks towny.

On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote:

I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis

I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight.

On May 28 2011 22:54 kitaman27 wrote:


This is untrue. I specifically remember asking in the thread "Is nobody going to switch over to impervious?" I then proceeded to repost my analysis of him. As for recent discussion, orgo and AO were dt checks. I'm not going to argue against dt checks. Conveniently, the town is pushing aside my attempt to point out AO's dt check and save him. Why would I try to give a townie a confirmed status when there are only 8 people remaining in the game?

On May 18 2011 11:31 kitaman27 wrote:
Careful Mig, if only you switch then it becomes 4-4 with orgolove. If you switch, we need someone else to switch too.

On May 25 2011 11:50 kitaman27 wrote:


Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep.

On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:


Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check.

I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn.

On May 29 2011 14:04 Mig wrote:
Ok first question I have is are you going to be online close to when the lynch happens tomorrow? Doesn't have to be super close but within a couple hours should be fine.

2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this.

On May 29 2011 14:10 kitaman27 wrote:


Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum.

On May 29 2011 14:15 kitaman27 wrote:


The fact that I was trying to prevent a redirection of the sinani lynch rather than trying to save him.

What are your thoughts about my analysis on jonn and elm?