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Sleeper Cell Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 08 2011 19:10 GMT
#12
Starting after XXXVIII? I'm /in
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 18 2011 04:28 GMT
#49
All ready here, I already won XXXVIII :D
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 24 2011 02:00 GMT
#67
GF's role is to let his agents know who their fellow agents are, but according to the rules he can't outright say the names or breadcrumb them, so it kind of sounds like he's not supposed to talk about the agents at all. What's considered a breadcrumb, then? If all the agents vote for agent 1 is saying 'you guys voted for an agent' a breadcrumb? Is taking words from an agent's posts to use as the night message a breadcrumb?

I suppose I'm just confused since it seems like the GF has to toe some mysterious line where anything past it is considered too easy to decipher. :S
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 24 2011 08:08 GMT
#75
Oh, I thought the message would be broadcast to all agents! Hmm, that changes things...
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 02:50 GMT
#247
First post!

On April 25 2011 23:04 Ace wrote:
1.) Eiii

If I recall I played in a Mafia game with him a long time ago. I think he's the only one here that was around more than 2 years ago? If so I could send him a message and it would be clearly obvious it was from me.
I think you have me confused with someone else-- my first game played was getting subbed into salem, and I've never actually been in a game with you (though I have played one and a half games you hosted).

I really don't have anything to say yet, so I might as well address ace's three-scumbuddies question but I don't know how to approach it! People seem to be picking who they'd want as sleepers based on how easy it would be for them to communicate in a five-word message who they were. If that's the case then I can just send 'XXXVIII I'm winning assassin' (and then an extra word of encouragement-- maybe 'victory!' or 'yeah!') or something and be totally set no matter who I send it too.
If the point is to list players who we think would be the strongest to have on a team as scum then we might as well just compile a list of vets instead (and in that case I REALLY don't get what this is about).

Also:
On April 26 2011 00:51 Ace wrote:
That will become clear soon, I'm just waiting for more lists.

Rean, why, Kenpachi, Zorkmid, Vain, darmousseh, and GGQ still have to post their lists.

:C
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 18:01 GMT
#274
On April 08 2011 14:51 iGrok wrote:
This is a semi-closed setup. Some Roles and their abilities will be disclosed, however role counts will not be. There is at least one of every Roles below. There may be other Roles not listed.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 18:49 GMT
#283
He's just trying to draw attention to himself. If he wanted to breadcrumb silently, he could.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 21:20 GMT
#296
I could, in theory, run through the thread and try to squeeze some sort of meaning out of the 5-20 posts everyone has made so far but I don't think anyone'd be better off for it. I understand that discussion like that is overall a good thing, but at this point I don't feel I could come up with anything that doesn't make me look bad :/ This early game time is by far what I'm worst at at the moment-- without anything having actually *happened* yet I have a really hard time seeing anyone as scummy or innocent.

Of your list of three lurkers up there, GGQ is the most suspicious to me atm-- I remember him being fairly active in XXXVIII and very active in Insane 2, but so far he's made four posts, two of which have been about the rules/setup.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 21:51 GMT
#298
I'd be happy to answer your question, but like I said I don't really get how you even want me to approach it
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 22:02 GMT
#302
Alright, fair enough. The first order of business for the cell leader would be to inform all of the agents of each other, but that can easily be done in one five-word message for each. So since I apparently get to pick who the agents are I guess I'm just building a strong scum team.

Ace -- ofc. Never played with you, but everything I've read makes you seem like a strong player
Jacakal -- very disruptive style of play, ever since insane 2 I've been thinking he could be really good on a scum team if he played right
Tackster -- Partially because it'd be funny to make jackal bus him, and partially because his more calm and straightforward style of play would counter the more argumentative/'you suck' style coming from ace/jackal. Diversity is good afaik
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 26 2011 23:08 GMT
#305
for all I know that's the truth
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 01:36 GMT
#323
Yeah, I was under that impression as well :S
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 01:43 GMT
#328
On April 27 2011 08:46 GMarshal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 27 2011 08:27 GGQ wrote:
On April 27 2011 00:26 GMarshal wrote:
Jackal, I like your accusation, however I would leave tnkted alone for now as if he has a weird role as he claims the mafia is much more likely to hit him


You are approaching this like a regular game. Because of the agent mechanic, the other mafia don't know if he is mafia or blue, so they won't risk hitting him.


I disagree, I think mafia are going to hit him anyway, because his role has provided something they can all see as a focus point. Cell agents all vote together for who they want to kill, almost like a mini lynch, with no way of knowing who is scum or town, so they are going to go for people they perceive to be playing the way town would/not they way scum would. What kind of retarded scum would publicly breadcrumb? Therefore the agents will conclude he isn't one of them and kill him, since they know he isn't a member. My thought process if I were an agent at least.


Hey, remember that time we were supposed to watch out for posters who try to direct the cell agents...?

anyway I'm gonna vote for kenpachi (for now) since he's self-confirmed as useless. If tackster's gonna be modkilled then we should probably throw all our votes into him, though.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 02:12 GMT
#334
On April 27 2011 10:18 chaoser wrote:
GGQ, Mr. Wiggles, Rean, Eiii, Tackster, and Vain all need to vote or they will be modkilled.
[/b]

He still hasn't voted, and his last post said he'd be off for the night :/
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 02:34 GMT
#338
...how did you even remotely think night 1 was ending when day 1 is a couple hours away from finishing? And then there's this:
On April 27 2011 11:28 tnkted wrote:
I didn't realize Ace was so well regarded in the mafia community, but apparently he is and he's probably going to be killed tonight. If I were scum I'd vote for him.

so that's a massive FoS
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 19:23 GMT
#375
On April 28 2011 00:18 Ace wrote:
So the top players that the Detective should check tonight: myself, GM, Jackal and Mr.Wiggles. We are the players that were mentioned the most as players that would be picked to contact.


I still have no clue what the point of this was. You know the gf doesn't get to pick his scumbuddies, right? Is this some kind of metagaming thing where you're trying to figure out who would be most likely to be picked, or are you gf and do you know something about how the scum side works that we don't?

Ooooor was the point to just assign a unique keyword to a set of players to make communication easier?
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 19:40 GMT
#378
Either that or one of mafia's abilities is to force someone to ragequit
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 27 2011 22:28 GMT
#389
On April 28 2011 06:57 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2011 04:23 Eiii wrote:
On April 28 2011 00:18 Ace wrote:
So the top players that the Detective should check tonight: myself, GM, Jackal and Mr.Wiggles. We are the players that were mentioned the most as players that would be picked to contact.


I still have no clue what the point of this was. You know the gf doesn't get to pick his scumbuddies, right? Is this some kind of metagaming thing where you're trying to figure out who would be most likely to be picked, or are you gf and do you know something about how the scum side works that we don't?

Ooooor was the point to just assign a unique keyword to a set of players to make communication easier?


Yes we know that. The point is that if you see players in the thread change their behaviors toward one another or start typing those unique keywords then there's a chance for secret communication. Did you read my entire post?


That's a given, everyone should have known from the start that when a player mysteriously does a 180 (or less even!) overnight it's something to be looked at.

You didn't answer why DT checks should be directed at those who were basically voted to be a scum dream team. I still don't understand why this tally has any influence whatsoever as to who looks scummy or not.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 29 2011 08:26 GMT
#465
Alright, busy day but I'm back. And there's been a lot to come back to!

okay so this is the third time I've tried to type this up, because each time I get halfway through I realize something and restart. HERE WE GO, LAST TRY

Bum's dt claim doesn't really make sense if he's town. Why do it now, especially with such a questionable result as 'no information'? Since he's so sure of who jackal's scumbuddies are, why not wait one more night and confirm that? There isn't even a chance that he could get killed and have all this be for nothing if he's smart enough to type up his case against jackal, post it a few minutes before night ends, and if he survives by the time the day post is up (and his results have gotten back) he could potentially finger the CL AND a red along with it. That seems like ideal play to me.

...so what does claiming this early get him, as blue or red? It's a huge distraction, but reds can't afford to trade one of their own just to keep town distracted for a day. The thing is, bum's DT result didn't actually show that jackal was scum, so if jackal flips green he can easily claim he just tunneled jackal... and it wouldn't even be one for one, because the next day he could say 'look to prove it I found a red last night' and just name someone kind of lurk-y who he doesn't have much of a red read on. Best case it's a green/blue and the trade becomes two for one, with town having wasted two lynches and worst case it's another red and bum gets 'confirmed'.

...anyway, that's how I see the thought processes for this claim. Neither really makes a ton of sense to me, because both are so risky. I'm holding off on voting for now, but this suspicion around bum by no means clears jackal and ace. We need to keep an eye on them, ace and bum especially.

Also tnk, weren't you supposed to claim your super weird role come daytime?
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 29 2011 22:49 GMT
#499
I can't stand people talking about the numbers anymore so here they are:
+ Show Spoiler +
Time to Bayes it up!

I is 'An inconclusive result is returned'
C is 'The player investigated is the cell leader'
There were 13 players when bum chose who to investigate.

ALRIGHT LET'S DO THIS
[image loading]
The probability that a randomly selected player is the cell leader is 1/13, so the probability that a randomly selected player is NOT the cell leader is 12/13.
[image loading]
Given that the player investigated is not the cell leader, there's a one in four (25%) chance that the investigation returns inconclusive.
[image loading]
But given that the player investigated is the cell leader, an investigation will always give an inconclusive result.

That's all we need. Plug it into Bayes' Theorem:

[image loading]
(That's the probability of 'A randomly selected player is the cell leader given the investigation on them returned inconclusive' on the left there)

[image loading]

[image loading]
Done.
If you don't want to look through all that stuff up there, I'll spoil it for you: Disregarding all analysis and looking only at the numbers, there's a 25% chance jackal is CL if bum is telling the truth. Lynching him mostly-- or even partially-- because of the numbers is dumb, we need to fall back to the analysis.

...that said, I don't think the analysis is very strong. I'm at a loss as to what to do today. Our best bet is to vote for the scummiest player, and the player who has claimed DT in a noncheckable way at a time that didn't make any sense for town and completely dominated the day's discussion, and focused town's attention on him/his target is more suspicious to me at the moment than the guy who had a few posts that could be breadcrumbs.

##vote bum
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 30 2011 03:44 GMT
#543
Alright, I'm all for a switch to vain.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 30 2011 03:46 GMT
#546
If vain doesn't get a majority I'll switch back to bum a couple minutes out, but I'm really iffy about today's lynch and would rather just lynch vain since he's going to die anyway.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
April 30 2011 03:57 GMT
#548
Alright, no vain lynch then :/
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 01 2011 05:45 GMT
#593
yo tnk

roleclaim
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 02 2011 22:46 GMT
#695
To be honest, I kind of felt we had lost this game before last night. Then some good shit happened, and the next time I read the thread there was a lot of confusing stuff going on that I still can't sort out. So here's how I feel at the moment:

tnk's roleclaim is the most convenient role for scum to claim ever. Then again, the role is designed to make tnk seem scummy. I don't really know why he would claim right now. I'm confused. As a side note, in insane 2 when blues proposed everyone should claim partial words in their role so they could double-check some roles people had, kavdragon jumped at the chance and later used that setup to claim a protown role when he was actually red or black or something, I can't remember. Anyway, breadcrumbing something like this is pretty easy. The role tnk claimed excuses his lurking. That's pretty nice for him :/

Ace feels really sketchy to me. First, his day one plan that clearly accomplished pretty much nothing-- it got some activity going, yeah that's good but as a 'plan' coming from a vetran player I expected more than just a list of names and associated keywords that he tells people to watch out for. So that's weird. Then his most recent claim-- seems reasonable, but it seems like a weird time for him to claim like that. Mafia accidentally kills one of their own -> opportunity for cl to claim vig and another to claim vet? But CL gets the hit list before the day post, as I understand it, so why wouldn't he take the chance to claim the hit in advance and make himself look better? If he actually is something vig-y, why didn't he do the same for the same reasons? Also, anotherthing that seems off to me is that his three-word interceptions of the five word messages seem too complete by themselves. They feel contrived to me, basically, but that could be due to a fake claim or because the role gets three useful words from each five word message sent.
So again, nothing for ace really lines up town or scum for me. I'm confused.

Of the non-lurkers, I would be most comfortable lynching ace right now. I'm also going to try to not lurk so I don't get lynched :X
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 03 2011 00:08 GMT
#706
I'm still here. Paying attention. Just trying to figure out what to do.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 03 2011 00:09 GMT
#707
and to answer your question ace, if I had a night hit and planned on claiming, I'd do so like a minute before night ends, not just after it ends.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 03 2011 01:03 GMT
#709
Hoppin' on the to-be-modkilled bandwagon.
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
May 04 2011 22:48 GMT
#771
Jackal is getting a lot of heat, but I'm pretty convinced he's town-- his play seems similar/identical to how he played in insane 2.

Impervious/Ace are the two active players I think are most suspicious-- I've said why I think ace could be red before, and now looking back on things impervious has moved from thinking ace was red day 1 to completely believing his claim to saying that they 'need to work together'. Ace being kind of sketchy and impervious doing a 180 recently on him smells a lot to me like a CL/sleeper relationship.

obviously bb is suspicious because he's still lurking and not doing anything and that sucks
:3
Eiii
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States2566 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-06 04:47:48
May 06 2011 04:45 GMT
#857
......uh, I thought day ended tomorrow. Fuck, sorry about that. :/

EDIT: Oh, of course. It's may 5 where I am but may 6 on tl -_-
:3
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