EPTSleeper Cell Mafia
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I suppose I'm just confused since it seems like the GF has to toe some mysterious line where anything past it is considered too easy to decipher. :S | ||
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On April 25 2011 23:04 Ace wrote: I think you have me confused with someone else-- my first game played was getting subbed into salem, and I've never actually been in a game with you (though I have played one and a half games you hosted).1.) Eiii If I recall I played in a Mafia game with him a long time ago. I think he's the only one here that was around more than 2 years ago? If so I could send him a message and it would be clearly obvious it was from me. I really don't have anything to say yet, so I might as well address ace's three-scumbuddies question but I don't know how to approach it! People seem to be picking who they'd want as sleepers based on how easy it would be for them to communicate in a five-word message who they were. If that's the case then I can just send 'XXXVIII I'm winning assassin' (and then an extra word of encouragement-- maybe 'victory!' or 'yeah!') or something and be totally set no matter who I send it too. If the point is to list players who we think would be the strongest to have on a team as scum then we might as well just compile a list of vets instead (and in that case I REALLY don't get what this is about). Also: On April 26 2011 00:51 Ace wrote: That will become clear soon, I'm just waiting for more lists. Rean, why, Kenpachi, Zorkmid, Vain, darmousseh, and GGQ still have to post their lists. :C | ||
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On April 08 2011 14:51 iGrok wrote: This is a semi-closed setup. Some Roles and their abilities will be disclosed, however role counts will not be. There is at least one of every Roles below. There may be other Roles not listed. | ||
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Of your list of three lurkers up there, GGQ is the most suspicious to me atm-- I remember him being fairly active in XXXVIII and very active in Insane 2, but so far he's made four posts, two of which have been about the rules/setup. | ||
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Ace -- ofc. Never played with you, but everything I've read makes you seem like a strong player Jacakal -- very disruptive style of play, ever since insane 2 I've been thinking he could be really good on a scum team if he played right Tackster -- Partially because it'd be funny to make jackal bus him, and partially because his more calm and straightforward style of play would counter the more argumentative/'you suck' style coming from ace/jackal. Diversity is good afaik | ||
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On April 27 2011 08:46 GMarshal wrote: I disagree, I think mafia are going to hit him anyway, because his role has provided something they can all see as a focus point. Cell agents all vote together for who they want to kill, almost like a mini lynch, with no way of knowing who is scum or town, so they are going to go for people they perceive to be playing the way town would/not they way scum would. What kind of retarded scum would publicly breadcrumb? Therefore the agents will conclude he isn't one of them and kill him, since they know he isn't a member. My thought process if I were an agent at least. Hey, remember that time we were supposed to watch out for posters who try to direct the cell agents...? anyway I'm gonna vote for kenpachi (for now) since he's self-confirmed as useless. If tackster's gonna be modkilled then we should probably throw all our votes into him, though. | ||
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On April 27 2011 10:18 chaoser wrote: [/b]GGQ, Mr. Wiggles, Rean, Eiii, Tackster, and Vain all need to vote or they will be modkilled. He still hasn't voted, and his last post said he'd be off for the night :/ | ||
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On April 27 2011 11:28 tnkted wrote: I didn't realize Ace was so well regarded in the mafia community, but apparently he is and he's probably going to be killed tonight. If I were scum I'd vote for him. so that's a massive FoS | ||
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On April 28 2011 00:18 Ace wrote: So the top players that the Detective should check tonight: myself, GM, Jackal and Mr.Wiggles. We are the players that were mentioned the most as players that would be picked to contact. I still have no clue what the point of this was. You know the gf doesn't get to pick his scumbuddies, right? Is this some kind of metagaming thing where you're trying to figure out who would be most likely to be picked, or are you gf and do you know something about how the scum side works that we don't? Ooooor was the point to just assign a unique keyword to a set of players to make communication easier? | ||
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On April 28 2011 06:57 Ace wrote: Yes we know that. The point is that if you see players in the thread change their behaviors toward one another or start typing those unique keywords then there's a chance for secret communication. Did you read my entire post? That's a given, everyone should have known from the start that when a player mysteriously does a 180 (or less even!) overnight it's something to be looked at. You didn't answer why DT checks should be directed at those who were basically voted to be a scum dream team. I still don't understand why this tally has any influence whatsoever as to who looks scummy or not. | ||
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okay so this is the third time I've tried to type this up, because each time I get halfway through I realize something and restart. HERE WE GO, LAST TRY Bum's dt claim doesn't really make sense if he's town. Why do it now, especially with such a questionable result as 'no information'? Since he's so sure of who jackal's scumbuddies are, why not wait one more night and confirm that? There isn't even a chance that he could get killed and have all this be for nothing if he's smart enough to type up his case against jackal, post it a few minutes before night ends, and if he survives by the time the day post is up (and his results have gotten back) he could potentially finger the CL AND a red along with it. That seems like ideal play to me. ...so what does claiming this early get him, as blue or red? It's a huge distraction, but reds can't afford to trade one of their own just to keep town distracted for a day. The thing is, bum's DT result didn't actually show that jackal was scum, so if jackal flips green he can easily claim he just tunneled jackal... and it wouldn't even be one for one, because the next day he could say 'look to prove it I found a red last night' and just name someone kind of lurk-y who he doesn't have much of a red read on. Best case it's a green/blue and the trade becomes two for one, with town having wasted two lynches and worst case it's another red and bum gets 'confirmed'. ...anyway, that's how I see the thought processes for this claim. Neither really makes a ton of sense to me, because both are so risky. I'm holding off on voting for now, but this suspicion around bum by no means clears jackal and ace. We need to keep an eye on them, ace and bum especially. Also tnk, weren't you supposed to claim your super weird role come daytime? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Time to Bayes it up! I is 'An inconclusive result is returned' C is 'The player investigated is the cell leader' There were 13 players when bum chose who to investigate. ALRIGHT LET'S DO THIS The probability that a randomly selected player is the cell leader is 1/13, so the probability that a randomly selected player is NOT the cell leader is 12/13. Given that the player investigated is not the cell leader, there's a one in four (25%) chance that the investigation returns inconclusive. But given that the player investigated is the cell leader, an investigation will always give an inconclusive result. That's all we need. Plug it into Bayes' Theorem: (That's the probability of 'A randomly selected player is the cell leader given the investigation on them returned inconclusive' on the left there) Done. ...that said, I don't think the analysis is very strong. I'm at a loss as to what to do today. Our best bet is to vote for the scummiest player, and the player who has claimed DT in a noncheckable way at a time that didn't make any sense for town and completely dominated the day's discussion, and focused town's attention on him/his target is more suspicious to me at the moment than the guy who had a few posts that could be breadcrumbs. ##vote bum  | ||
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roleclaim | ||
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tnk's roleclaim is the most convenient role for scum to claim ever. Then again, the role is designed to make tnk seem scummy. I don't really know why he would claim right now. I'm confused. As a side note, in insane 2 when blues proposed everyone should claim partial words in their role so they could double-check some roles people had, kavdragon jumped at the chance and later used that setup to claim a protown role when he was actually red or black or something, I can't remember. Anyway, breadcrumbing something like this is pretty easy. The role tnk claimed excuses his lurking. That's pretty nice for him :/ Ace feels really sketchy to me. First, his day one plan that clearly accomplished pretty much nothing-- it got some activity going, yeah that's good but as a 'plan' coming from a vetran player I expected more than just a list of names and associated keywords that he tells people to watch out for. So that's weird. Then his most recent claim-- seems reasonable, but it seems like a weird time for him to claim like that. Mafia accidentally kills one of their own -> opportunity for cl to claim vig and another to claim vet? But CL gets the hit list before the day post, as I understand it, so why wouldn't he take the chance to claim the hit in advance and make himself look better? If he actually is something vig-y, why didn't he do the same for the same reasons? Also, anotherthing that seems off to me is that his three-word interceptions of the five word messages seem too complete by themselves. They feel contrived to me, basically, but that could be due to a fake claim or because the role gets three useful words from each five word message sent. So again, nothing for ace really lines up town or scum for me. I'm confused. Of the non-lurkers, I would be most comfortable lynching ace right now. I'm also going to try to not lurk so I don't get lynched :X | ||
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Impervious/Ace are the two active players I think are most suspicious-- I've said why I think ace could be red before, and now looking back on things impervious has moved from thinking ace was red day 1 to completely believing his claim to saying that they 'need to work together'. Ace being kind of sketchy and impervious doing a 180 recently on him smells a lot to me like a CL/sleeper relationship. obviously bb is suspicious because he's still lurking and not doing anything and that sucks | ||
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EDIT: Oh, of course. It's may 5 where I am but may 6 on tl -_- | ||
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