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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
On April 14 2011 04:01 CubEdIn wrote: Actually, no. I'm a substitute for someone whose role was also chosen when there were 8/40 mafia. I got his role, I didn't get assigned a new one.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
On April 14 2011 04:14 CubEdIn wrote: I am aware of that lovely gem, "thank you for the extra 33%!", but I don't see why it applies here. I'm confuzzled. Are you saying that the mafia removed 4 people, by being aware of what role the guy I've replaced had? It's a bit of a strech. But do please explain, I'm always open to having my math mind tickled. (and no, I'm not good at maths, I just like statistics) Hm, this feels like derailing, so people analyzing the thread just skip over this post. when our roles were given out, everyone had 8/40 chance to become mafia. If we assume that latrommi or whatever his name was' inactivity is unrelated to what his role was, we can assume that he also had and 8/40 chance of being mafia. (in this analogy, mafia = car, and town = donkey) when 5 townies died, it was like they revealed 5 donkeys. then you were 'given the option to switch your door' you did switch, and even though latrommi had an 8/40 chance originally, because a bunch of donkeys were eliminated, switching your door will always make it more likely that you reveal a car. However, I am not going to use this as a diagnostic tool, and no one else should either. There are too many unknowns at play for this to be a pure mathematical recreation of the monty hall problem. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
Since his gambit to get elected failed, he would need to switch his claim to something that would draw a medic protect...so a blue DT. If this is the case, either Coag is a fellow mafia and they are bussing him, which would probably mean that protact is a high profile role in the mafia. Or Coag isn't mafia and he is just trying to take someone out before we find out and lynch him. Which doesn't really matter since, because his mayor gambit already failed, his days are numbered already. Also, if and when we do find out that protact was mafia, I think that heaps a ton of suspicion on Doctor Mayor. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
On April 15 2011 09:08 Rean wrote: You're playing exactly the same as in Insane Mafia 2. Both games I called you scum, both games you ignored me. I'm not letting you get away with the same shit twice Lemon. Defend yourself and start posting useful content. If you're town (yeah rite), stop being a mindless sheep and analyze rather then going "fw is lying so i'm going to follow drh mindlessly". When did you call me scum? | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
You are just flinging shit on me because you got FoS'ed and you want to cover your ass. I don't think you are scum...at least I don't yet, but bring some REAL arguments to the table as to why I am scummy and I will answer to them, but right now all of your reasons for how scummy I am are either just plain wrong or rely on the fact that you trust protact and I don't, which I believe to be a reasonable choice considering his various claims all seem like risky scum gambles or attempts to save himself from a lynch. Also fuck you my jokes aren't bad. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
And if so what is the punishment? | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
Flamewheel (this we knew) Ver Incognito | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
No one is allowed to PM. This is 3 people communicating outside of the game. I believe that this is cheating. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
This means that, in my eyes, Coagulation is almost certainly mafia, and it is likely that LSB is mafia as well. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
On April 12 2011 14:01 BrownBear wrote: Gmarshal: 13 Lanaia Robellicose Coagulation OriginalName AirbladeOrange M0nsterChef Kenpachi Serejai Barundar Lemonwalrus GMarshal tnkted Latrommi List of people that voted for GMarhal during his campaign, not sure if we will have the whole mafia team here (doubtful) but good chance there are at least a few in there. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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