TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 22

On April 17 2011 22:18 Conversion wrote:
Also, is DocH busy? He hasn't been contributing much aside from one liners recently.

On April 18 2011 15:22 Barundar wrote:

Unless there was a mistake from the hosts. Im not stupid enough to fakeclaim roleblock and trade myself 1 for 1.

On April 19 2011 14:07 Barundar wrote:

Already asked. There was no mistake. 2 roleblockers.

On April 21 2011 13:14 DropBear wrote:
MR MAYOR
You know this guy is dodgy. Help me out here. I just made a rookie mistake and I'm getting shat on for it.

On April 21 2011 17:51 Barundar wrote:
Since there isn’t much to talk about during night, I thought I would run some numbers.

8. Kenpachi
9. ilovejonn
11.chaoser
15.TranceStorm
18.urashimakt
22.The_Roist
23.kitaman27
24.Lanaia//bumatlarge
25.jaminz
26.DarthThienAn
27.DoctorHelvetica
29.AirbladeOrange
30.MetalFace
31.Barundar
33.redFF//Zorkmid
39.Conversion

16 players remaining total. 3 mafia.

This is the worst case scenario, with no medic saves and only mislynches:

Night 4: 13 vs 3 – current situation
Day 5: 11 vs 3 - Mislynch
Night 5: 10 vs 3
Day 6: 8 vs 3 – MYLO if DrH is mafia
Night 6: 7 vs 3
Day 7: 5 vs 3 - LYLO if DrH is dead/lieing about being a veteran
Night 7: 4 vs 3
Day 8: 2 vs 3 – LYLO if DrH is veteran.


What this means is:
Basicly if DrH is town, mafia have to gun for him. Otherwise he is able to win the game alone. All the mafia has been pretty confident about their chances though, so I’m a little worried here.

If we mislynch tomorrow, we can effectively mislynch DrH at no cost for extra information.

If we hit 1 more mafia, town KP=mafia KP, making our odds pretty good. In that case we could lynch DrH to get 2 extra days in case he is mafia.

Thoughts?

On April 23 2011 06:28 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Here's what I'm thinking right now:

I feel like mafia's best strategy would be taking out the bodyguards then Doc. H because of his voting power this late in the game. Both people we think to be bodyguards as is Dr. H. Are the mafia just banking on Doc. H. screwing this up? Are they just playing poorly? Maybe I'm wrong here. I would really like to hear from some experienced players as I'm getting suspicious Dr. H. is just playing us. His play has been much different from the beginning of the game to now. He was just spamming shit in the beginning. He made some early calls that were bad, which is easy to overlook when the game is in its early stages. However, he repaired his image with good analysis and hunting. But now he is more inactive than our inactive list. It's tough to know what to make of it and I want to hear what other people think about this.

I'm still most likely going to be voting for conversion at this point as I did before. He has done nothing to ease the suspicion of him from before. And now it seems like he has given up. Frustrated, poor-posting townie or frustrated scum? I'm going with frustrated scum. Maybe he's afraid the more he says the more trouble he will get himself into.

On April 23 2011 08:13 jaminz wrote:
Ok, after the events of last night, I feel like I have to reveal this.

I'm a Watcher and I saw AirbladeOrange visit kitaman last night. He was the only person to visit kitaman, and as kitaman was killed last night we know for sure that Airblade is Mafia

He's trying to get us to kill the bodyguards & Dr. H because that takes pressure off the mafia. I know this will probably mean I'll be a target for the next night, but I don't want Airblade & the rest of the mafia taking this game over.