EPTInsane Mafia 2 - Page 5
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I'm awaiting an explanation of why Lemon is still alive from Bum. Obviously some stuff got screwed up, but It didn't say anything about a KP failing. The assassin kill definetly came afterwards, and should be considered a separate KP. Unless Coag's gun is actually a day-vig, we are missing two KP by my count. Coag: Who did you shoot? Since it is unlikely that he would have shot Rean OR Chaoser, I think it's safe to say that scum hit them. The post didn't say anything about KP failing, so it seems that there were only two shots fired. LSB was asking for night actions right before the day came, so it's possible that one of the two scum factions forgot to send in their actions. Black has only one KP, so they couldn't have pulled off both hits, which means they must have forgotten to send in their actions. I think I know why iGrok was hit, though. I saw this earlier, but it obviously couldn't say anything about it without alerting e Gmarshal's PM: You are the Bodyguard. You have the thankless job of being a meatshield for the king. However, the king promises to reward you if you manage to kill the assassin. I wonder what he will teach you... On March 29 2011 03:44 iGrok wrote: This quote was from Return of the King. Looked like a breadcrumb to me, so I thought that he was the king. But then Chaoser came out with his claim and GMarshal's breadcrumb looked pretty legit. Chances are the assassin was looking for this sort of thing, so if I saw it, he probably saw it too. Once Chaoser was revealed to be the bodyguard, the king would have been vulnerable, and the assassin probably took a shot at iGrok. Though I'm still confused as to why iGrok would breadcrumb that... Anyways I'm tired, and i'm trying to do logic to stuff. Never a good idea. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 01 2011 05:09 Lanaia wrote: I know this is unrelated to the game, but why isn't the mafia forum open to everyone without asking for access? Is this because it would be a pain in the ass to take care of? Jeez, I'm so bored and no one's here to talk about/with. They probably don't want people coming in and spamming the mafia threads. If someone here does that, they can remove access to the thread. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 01 2011 15:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: + Show Spoiler + Obviously there will be no analysis of igrok as he died so instead I plan on analyzing ilovejonn or someone similar. A note on activity: Lanaia is right, we are currently failing pretty hard as town. The thread has ground to a standstill and that's a huge red flag that the town is in trouble. I'm not asking for spam like the first 180 pages, I'm asking for meaningful contributions, however length is not a problem for me; I'd be more than happy if the thread grew 40 pages a day IF it was all good posting. Honestly I feel like tnkted, Lanaia, deondou, and to a certain extent GGQ are the only people really playing this game any more. Things I find odd atm: why isn't Coag driving for Lemonwalrus to be lynched. I know jackal quit so I'm figuring he's not mafia but the only information we have on Coag is his own word. The IG game is getting pretty small and its most vocal participant has gone silent. The scum didn't seem to shoot into the IG last night which I found odd because if walrus was scum it was their last night to win it because they should have known walrus was most likely the next lynch once Tackster flipped. The only explanation I could think of is if they thought they already had the IG won because of "confirmed" townies. I dunno, I'm sick of the item game and I'm confused about the new game and have no idea where the hell pandain came from and I'm pissed at the towns play and I wish I didn't feel like I was the only person actually trying to scum hunt rather then just let the roles win the game. Did anyone ever actually analyze tack and say "yep he's been playing scummy" how about walrus, has anyone anlyzed him? I didn't do it because I kept waiting for the IG players to do it themselves because I dont have access to their PMs and therefore couldn't get the whole picture... Maybe I should have tried anyway. Town is just sheeping and lurking and it fucking pisses me off. Analysises take a long time to do and take a lot of work but if the town is unwilling to use them then I don't see what the point of me making them is. We're not going to win this game with roles people, the blues are half dead so we can't rely on them to magically win the game. I'm doing one more analysis tomorrow and if the town can't get their act together then I'm done putting effort into this game and I'll just sheep along with the rest of you. Please don't give up. Your analyses have been good, but I think there's a fundamental flaw in your play: The town only has one lynch a day. I've made this mistake before, and I still forget it, but you have to remember that we can't take more than one thing at a time. You need to spend more time aggressively pushing for someone that you are sure it scum. Heck, even if you aren't sure, press them aggressively, because their reactions are really telling. I have a feeling that people aren't saying much because the lynch is more or less set, and they feel like they have nothing to do till day 4. I've not had a ton of time to contribute as much as I would like. I'm going to really try to contribute more though, because I'd hate to see you join the sheep. First off: Coag. Coag, you said that you didn't shoot because you didn't want them to MC your shot. This is a problem. We cannot let MC bully us out of our one KP. To this end, I think we need to theory craft how we can stop them from doing that. If everyone is quaking in their boots because they are afraid of MC, we will lose. Flat out. We must use our abilities, they can't MC us all. A thought that just occurred to me: What if Tnketd busses you with some random person every night. That way they can't mind control your shot. (They would have to MC the bus, but then they wouldn't be able to MC you...) This could be defeated if Tnked is RB'd, but again, we cannot be indecisive because of a small possibility of the mafia manipulating it. I'll post more soon, but I wanted to get that out for you Meapak. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I realized one problem with what I was saying earlier about only focusing on one person at a time. This is insane mafia. Town has more than the lynch. To that end, I think that we should set up a unofficial system where we use Coag's KP as another lynch. Even if people dissagree with it, it should still help the town: We need to be able to pressure people to get reactions. This is a problem because NO ONE is going to feel pressured at the moment, because Lemon's lynch is so set in stone. However, we can still kill people with Coag's gun! This means that we can use the unoficial system to put up people to hit, thus pressuring them. I used a similar tactic to great effect in Mafia XXXVI, where I called on vigs to hit certain people. Some people who were lurking hard-core popped up right away. Turns out there weren't any vigs, but it didn't matter: The threat is all that is needed. Now, of course we need to be ready and willing to carry though with the threat, or it holds no weight, but I don't think that that will be hard. Right. Now that I've said that, Ima call on coag/vigs to hit Kenpachi tonight. I've already done an analysis on him, and his response was essentially a big OMGUS. If anyone doubts, feel free to read my analysis, or just read his posts yourself. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, onto your concerns about people going inactive: I completely agree. there's one post that I think sums it up quite nicely: You seem to be around more recently ON, but your not contributing that much. If you are "around" why aren't you contributing? Do analysis on someone! Just sitting around doing nothing is really anti-town. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I just realized that we have the fighting ring too. We need people to do analysis on those in the ring. We may not be able to fight directly, but we can still direct those who can. I see no reason why we should leave the decision of who dies solely up to those in the ring. Otherwise mafia just get two guys in and kill everyone who enters. Thoughts on this? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
used your redacted. 5,10,15,20, 25,30,35 respectively. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 01 2011 18:59 CubEdIn wrote: EBWODP: the "it surely came from scum IMO." part was directed @ kav. Us blues did not RB you afaik. No, I'm not saying no one claimed roleblocker, I'm saying that no one claimed that they were roleblocked. I was RB'd. This confirms that there is a RB'er. So who did he RB the first night? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Seriously, this is a problem. I'm not saying that BB had many contrabutions, but the fighting ring is NOT about just making aliances and killing random people. It's another way for town to kill scum. I want to hear reasons as to why BB was picked by Pandain and Insanious. You guys didn't post ANY reasons iirc, and that's not acceptable. Personally, I would have killed either of the other two over BB, because Insanious was scummy, and Pandain has been somewhat spammy and not helpful in the short amount of time that he has posted (In addition to the fact that RoL was similarly unhelpful). We also need to decide who they will vote in tonight. We cannot let them make all the decisions. Scum will have influence in and out of the ring. This is essentially a PM circle with the power to lynch. We need to use this like a double lynch. With that in mind, I suggest that Kenpachi get's voted in. I really doubt that LSB would put three townies into the ring, and make us auto kill a townie because we didn't have a chance to vote a scum in. Because of this, I strongly believe that one or both of the remaining fighters are scum. It could even be a black and a red, thou I kinda doubt it. I'd like to see some analysis done on those in the ring. I've already analysed Insanious, and thought that he looked scummy, but that was a while ago, and I need to re-evaluate him. I will probaly analyse Pandain first though, because no one has done any analytical work on rol/pandain. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
The arena: Town's second lynch. Past: Why did BB die? Insanious, you are fairly cleared as a townie, but I want to know why you voted BB. Pandain, You are not cleared, so you'd better have a damn good reason for voting him. The only analysis that i remembered being done on BB was by meapak, and it showed him as most likely being town. (HERE) Why was there no real discussion amongst yourselves? Were you active in PM's? Present: Who should die now? Right, Pandain seems to be the obvious arena lynch, here's why: Three people are in the arena to start. It would be stupidly unfair to us the town, (especially if we are behind like the Cubedin is saying), if all three of them were townies. I seriously doubt that LSB would force us to lynch a townie with that. This means that of the three original people in the ring, one almost certainly scum. BrownBear was killed, and flipped green. He's as clear as they get. Insanious had his whole Villiage Idiot thing, and then his role was switched. We are still at 6/6 Mafia according to the OP, so I'm pretty dang sure that this clears him. Pandain replaced a lurker veteran player, and procceded to post spam. (Halarious spam, but spam nonetheless). He FoS'ed Cubedin (lol), and otherwise has made no contributions to speak of. Even without taking my theory of scum being in the original fight into account, he still looks scummy. ## Fight: Pandain Future: Who do we add to the ring? This is actually kind of a nice mechanic, because it will give us something to talk about at night. I think that we should approach this as a second "night lynch". It will be different in that the person will have a full day cycle to defend them self once they are put into the ring (assuming pandain is killed tomorrow, the addition will have that whole day to defend himself, and the next addition the next day and so forth.) This will be an excellent way to pressure people, because we show that we are ready to lynch them by putting them into the ring, but they will still have time to defend themselves if they are innocent. At any rate, I think that we should decide by discussing it in thread, then letting the blues make the final decision. They will be with us for tonight at least, so that will work for now. After then I'd say that we should turn final decisions over to confirmed townies, but i'm hesitant to give that power to jackal or eiii. Oddly enough, I'd be half comfortable with coag, as I've seen him build pretty good scum lists early in games before. He can be a little over confident, and he's not great at making a case, but his scumdar is better than many people. We should discuss amongst ourselves, and let the blues make the final decision tl;dr Brownbears killing needs to be explained Pandain should be killed tomorrow We need to decide TONIGHT who to put into the ring. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I think that he's certainly worth putting into the ring. Other people who I think might be worth looking into are Amber[light] and Kevconsim. I believe someone claimed Kev, but if it's not out sooner or later I'm taking it. FoS those who think that Meapak is mafia. It's possible that he's black, but if you even half of the analysis he's done, it's glaringly obvious he's not scum. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 02 2011 16:12 Coagulation wrote: well i think meapak is suspectable and IM UN FOSABLE and i will probably die tonight if i dont get med prot -_- I see what you did there. W/e. I've not done an analysis on him, but he's done more analysis than anyone else, so he gets a clear in my book. On the topic of analysis, I'm trying to compile a list of all the analyses that have been done thus far. I don't have the best memory, so if people can point out those that I've missed, I'd appreaciate it. Link to Analysis Analyers read: Confirmation of read Eii by Meapak Scum: Unconfirmed Amber[light] by Meapak Scum: Unconfirmed BrownBear by Meapak Green: Correct Annul by meapak Scum: Incorrect Kenpachi by kavdragon ScumUnconfirmed Insanious by Kavdragon Scum: 90% sure it's Incorrect | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 02 2011 16:39 Eiii wrote: Ken's meta is pretty important to take into account-- he ALWAYS spams the thread with short, useless posts. I've been in a few games with him, and the only weird thing about his behavior this time around is that he made an attempt to put up a formal analysis post. Is that him trying to play better or scumbuddies pushing him to contribute more to town? Hmm. This is a good point. I don't remember playing with him, so if there's a meta history that I'm missing, please let me know. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 02 2011 16:42 Eiii wrote: Heh, claiming village idiot and then getting thrown in a subgame gets insanious 90% green but after I get confirmed by a blue I'm still 'unconfirmed'?  also three 'i's! Heh. Fail. I was only confirming those that died, then I decided to throw in insanious. I missed you. I'll update that for the next time I post it. I'll take the blues word as at least a 90% confirm. (Cause it's INSANE, i'm not getting higher than 90% till death.) | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Oh snap. I just realized what i was suggesting earlier: If pandain is actually scum, and we vote in another scum, the will be able to kill the townie. I mean, it would give them up, but still...That's a dangerous think to do. I think that given possible meta explinations, we should kill amber and vote kenpachi into the ring. Hmm. The more I think about two scum in the arena, the more I'm wondering what they could do... LSB, If we lynch someone in the arena, and kill another with the fight, does the last man vote in two people? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On April 02 2011 16:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Kav I also did an analysis of Beneather (although you're excused for missing it, it was minuscule lol) Link please? Anyone else who points out an analysis, please give me a link so I can add it to my list. =D thanks. Also, I'd suggest going over the analysis done on those who we are talking about. Amber by Meapak is something worth looking at. I agree with it's judgment. | ||
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