EPTSurvivor Outwit, Outplay, Outlast (Experimental) - Page 17
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
Day 3 Evening: Wiggles Good with Words Challenge Winner Congrats to Mr. Wiggles for winning the challenge. He won very quickly. I guess he is the detective finder after all. Tribal Council Mr Wiggles is immune. If you wish to use your immunity idol, then please do so according to the instructions I sent you. You have 24 hours to vote. | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Mr. Wiggles' Clue Analysis Like others, I have been looking at the clues left in the day posts. The Serial Killer is a serious threat to everyone in this game, as if he makes it to the final two, he will automatically win. To win as the serial killer you must be on the island on the last day. You will immediately kill the only other person left on the island. It is important to vote off the serial killer before the last day. This means that if the Serial Killer makes it to the end, everyone loses, there is no final vote, and all the effort people have put in to the challenges and their alliances will be for naught. This is why I decided to seriously look at the clues and try to unveil the identity of the Serial Killer, as I fear I he may indeed make it into the final three. This is my analysis as it pertains to LunarDestiny. It's a little ironic, because I actually started looking at the clues in a different light when LD himself posted that the second day clue might infer the killer was in the larger alliance. I then decided to look at people's profiles, because that was how the other large clue game I was in worked. (Mafia XXXVI). I'm also considering that parts of the clues are flavour and we just need to look at the meanings intended to really solve them. All my evidence is from behavioural analysis and LD's profile. + Show Spoiler + "Crazy. Karma is a b****. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!" -Proceed to lose winning streak, lose 4 games in a row, injure himself, miss 2 games. --------------- Mafia Diary (played 9 games, role claimed in 7 games) ROTK: Town, Day Vig Bang Bang: Mafia, Godfather XXVI: Town, Townie Insane: Town->3rd Party, Bulletproof Harry Potter: Town, Lover XXV: Town, Townie Merc: Town, Day Vig DLYM: Mafia, Stalker (DT and VIG) XXXVI: 3rd Party, Serial Killer First clue: + Show Spoiler + Born in a hut, I was raised for war. At a young age I strived for battle. Every victory brought me closer to becoming god. When I became a man, I traveled across the sea, searching for victory. I struggled, but I conquered whenever I could. I gave no man respect least he deserved it. The striving for battle from a young age refers to Lunar playing mafia for a while, and being somewhat experienced. He played a lot, and is decently skilled at the game. Searching for victory, struggling, and conquering wherever he could all refer to Lunar Destiny's self-proclaimed win-streak in his profile. Giving respect to no one unless they deserve it could refer to his roleclaiming, being brave enough to do that while being wary of others in the game. Second clue: + Show Spoiler + A sacrifice was neccesary. Sacrificing my closest allies, I surpassed the most high. It was my greatest battle, but also my greatest disappointment. I had allies still, but I could not overcome anything else. I was desperate. "A sacrifice was neccesary. Sacrificing my closest allies, I surpassed the most high." He kills his ally, annul in order to further himself in the game, whittling down both alliances at the same time. "It was my greatest battle, but also my greatest disappointment. I had allies still, but I could not overcome anything else. I was desperate." This might refer to his mention of a losing streak in mafia, and then missing two games from his profile Third clue: + Show Spoiler + After many years I still struggled and slowly grew stronger yet again, but I was disappointed. I grew angry, cursing my enemies. The time had come. I have come home, never to return to that place. I still strive for war, but my enemies are weak. I have no friends or enemies any longer. "After many years I still struggled and slowly grew stronger yet again, but I was disappointed." Getting stronger might refer to his winning immunity for the night preceding the clue, and possibly winning the hidden idol as well. The reason he's disappointed is because his plan failed. He wasn't aware that we were going to kill Jackal, and so he put in his hit on Amber, with the understanding that I'd be voted out, keeping the alliance numbers close. This fits in with the kills, and particularly the next part of the clue. "I grew angry, cursing my enemies. The time had come. I have come home, never to return to that place. I still strive for war, but my enemies are weak. I have no friends or enemies any longer." He's mad, because he was completely blindsided by the Jackal vote. A lot of the better players have been voted out and killed now too, so that might be the "my enemies are weak" part. Also, his alliance is effectively broken now, so "I have no friends or enemies any longer", refers to the fact it's a free for all. All of this together, leads me to conclude that LunarDestiny, is indeed the Serial Killer. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
Day 4 Morning: The end is near ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/sqWrO.jpg) Tribal Council The challengers looked nervous, not because of the fear of getting kicked off, but because of their fear of staying. The Serial Killer was still loose and they had hoped their analysis would help them kick him off before taking any more risks. The players individually quietly walked up. The past few days had been nervewracking. One of the challengers pronounced "ITS TIME FOR SK TO DIE" The votes were in LunarDestiny Mr. Wiggles [he is immune so it counts for nothing] Gmarshal LunarDestiny. The immunity idol remained unused. With that LunarDestiny the Survivor was cast away. A sigh of relief, but also a sigh of disappointment was heard before he left. As the night settled, the final 4 bunkered themselves down as best they could. They constantly watched each other to see if the serial killer would make a move. No one slept. When the sun rose they found that Gmarshal the Survivor was motionless against a tree. It appeared he died many hours ago and simply was sitting there dead the entire time. That sent chills down the players spines. An autopsy would reveal he died to poisoning in his sleep. Challenge Three challengers remaining. There are no more challenges remaining, no more immunity except the hidden immunity idol. You have 24 hours to vote for the next person to be removed from the island. If the Serial Killer is still on the island after the vote he will win. Good luck figuring out the clues. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
 Going to reevaluate, hope this isn't true, I would facepalm: | ||
GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
im putting my money on you ggq | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On March 01 2011 11:28 Coagulation wrote: hmm yup one of you fuckers is sk im putting my money on you ggq That doesn't make any sense. If I was SK, I wouldnt have gotten in contact with Amber to betray our alliance. It has to be one of you two, that weren't in the alliance. One the one hand, Coagulation admitting he's the SK in the thread would be exactly the sort of WIFOM shit that he'd do. On the other hand, Wiggles has been working much harder than anyone else to win the immunity challenges, which makes me feel like he's sure that he'll win as long as he doesn't get voted off. | ||
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On March 01 2011 11:50 GGQ wrote: Hmm well I just looked back through the thread and for the hidden immunity idol, Coagulation never even submitted a picture. I know I didn't win it, which means Wiggles must have won it (unless LunarDestiny or GMarshal got it, but darmousseh made it sound like the idol is still in play), which means he can activate it today and become immune to this vote, right? Which means if he's SK then he's already won. I can tell you that I didn't win the hidden immunity idol, and that I've been working hard for immunity, because I'm normally pretty decent at clues, so I was expecting the SK to kill me to stop me from any kind of analysis. That's also why I was pretty surprised to live through the night I didn't have it, and so I made my analysis of Lunar, hoping to kill the SK before the final three. I'm looking at the clues again now, because neither of you two have posted terribly much in the thread, so that's mostly what I have to work with. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Mr. Wiggles' Clue Analysis 2.0 So the Serial Killer has indeed made it into the final three. My last clue analysis didn't seem to be very accurate, but I'm going to give it another go, and it should be easier with there being only two people to look at. Judging by their profiles and my general suspicions, I think I can narrow it down to one person, whom I think is the Serial Killer. As such, here is my analysis of the clues as they relate to GGQ. (Again, all evidence comes from profile and behaviour/strategy theory). + Show Spoiler + Hey all, Canadian English student here. Sucked at Broodwar (was a top player in aoe3!) but loved watching it, Bisu for Bonjwa! Thx Tasteless for bringing me into the Starcraft scene. Playing SC2 now, at least in theory. Reached Diamond for a bit, now back in platinum with thousands of bonus pool points lol. I'll get back in it sometime soon, i hope. Protoss power! First Clue: + Show Spoiler + Born in a hut, I was raised for war. At a young age I strived for battle. Every victory brought me closer to becoming god. When I became a man, I traveled across the sea, searching for victory. I struggled, but I conquered whenever I could. I gave no man respect least he deserved it. "Born in a hut, I was raised for war. At a young age I strived for battle." In GGQ's profile he mentions that he's a student, and that he played BW in the past. This would seem to imply that he played BW when he was younger, thus the striving for battle from a young age. Also, for a lot of people, their goal playing BW was to become the very best, like no one ever was. So this could be the part about becoming closer to being a God with every victory. The next part, "When I became a man, I traveled across the sea, searching for victory.", I think may refer to two things. First, it might refer to playing Koreans in BW, "travelling across the sea" in a virtual sense. It might also refer to where GGQ says "was a top player in aoe3!", because the game was centred around the colonial area of the Americas, and so it might be talking about the Europeans traveling across the sea to colonize America, and where the game is set. "I struggled, but I conquered whenever I could. I gave no man respect least he deserved it." This might refer to BW being an exceptionally hard game, and that GGQ says he wasn't very great at it. The part about respect though, I find very fitting, because manners were an important social aspect of BW, along with respecting other players. Second Clue: + Show Spoiler + A sacrifice was neccesary. Sacrificing my closest allies, I surpassed the most high. It was my greatest battle, but also my greatest disappointment. I had allies still, but I could not overcome anything else. I was desperate. I'm still convinced that this is pointing out that the Serial Killer was part of the "pentagon". GGQ killed off a member of his alliance to keep the numbers close for the endgame, and this is why it talks about sacrificing "my closest allies". About where it says not being able to overcome anything else, I think it might have to with the part in GGQ's profile where he says "Reached Diamond for a bit, now back in platinum with thousands of bonus pool points lol.". He calls himself a top player from AOE:3, but now he is unable to penetrate into the higher skills of SC2, I could also see how this could be seen as "disappointing". Third Clue: + Show Spoiler + After many years I still struggled and slowly grew stronger yet again, but I was disappointed. I grew angry, cursing my enemies. The time had come. I have come home, never to return to that place. I still strive for war, but my enemies are weak. I have no friends or enemies any longer. Struggling and growing stronger yet again might be in reference to GGQ mentioning he has thousands of bonus pool points. He says "I'll get back in it sometime soon, i hope.", so this might be a look into the future at how it will be a long time before he manages to spend all the bonus pool points. When it says "I have come home, never to return to that place", it might be meaning that he made the switch over to SC2, and has stopped playing BW. The "I still strive for war" also refers to the fact that he has expressed an intention to continue playing SC2 in the future. The final sentence, "I still strive for war, but my enemies are weak. I have no friends or enemies any longer", I still think points out that he has broken his own alliance. I'm not sure why now, maybe to go along with Amber thinking Jackal was SK, and not seem suspicious trying to push the vote in a different direction. I also believe "my enemies are weak" still refers to many of the experienced players being killed and voted out very early in the game. Also, one thing that made me want to look a little closer at GGQ was his responses to the last two kills. On February 27 2011 15:35 GGQ wrote: Yeah, Amber and I agreed to switch in an attempt to kill the serial killer. Obviously we missed... On March 01 2011 11:27 GGQ wrote: WTF it's me, Wiggles and Coag left? I put this off to just being disappointed, but now that I think he may indeed be the SK, the first post seem a little apologetic, when he really didn't need to be, and then almost artificially surprised at who's left in the game in the second one. He's also seemed to have been lurking a fair bit, and this may have been to avoid suspicion. This is my final attempt to try to out the Serial Killer, GGQ, and the reasoning behind my suspicions. If I'm wrong and coag is the SK, then I'm going to stop clue analyzing for a while out of shame, but I don't think so. ##Vote: GGQ On February 23 2011 13:03 Coagulation wrote: WIGGLES YOU GOT AN ALLIANCE YET BRO? WE SHOULD TEAM UP. TEAM WIGGULATION FTW This rests on you now Coag to vote who you think is SK, but I think it'd be awesome to go to the final two together :p | ||
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On March 01 2011 13:27 GGQ wrote: Nice analysis, it's all bullshit though. Given that Coagulation has already said he think it's me, nice job jumping on the wagon. If Coagulation is SK, then gg, but I'd still bet that it's you, Wiggles. If you weren't the SK you would have been killed by him last night instead of GMarshal. I had immunity last night so I couldn't be killed by SK... To: GMarshal [ Profile | Buddy | Report ] Subject: Re: Survivor Date: 2/27/11 04:57 Sure, I think I'm going to actually try to make a clue analysis against GGQ haha. Original Message From GMarshal: Do you want to try to coordinate our votes against the square of doom? I've actually been thinking you might be the SK for a while. After the Jackal vote though, I got distracted by Amber's suspicions of Lunar, and thought that he might have been it, as he's been more active in the thread than you. On March 01 2011 13:29 GGQ wrote: And I've already addressed that if I was SK, there was no reason for me to betray my alliance. Optimal play would have been to keep the alliance together and vote you guys off while killing my allies. That's the whole reason I betrayed the alliance; I thought jackal58 or LunarDestiny was SK doing exactly that. You were approached with suspicion of a Serial Killer. With only one person jumping overboard, we would already have had enough votes to have majority, so it would behoove you to follow with Amber, making it look like you were helping hunt down the SK. Then you killed Amber, the one person who had expressed definite suspicion of the Serial Killer. This is what made me look at Lunar more closely and set me off on his trail instead. I thought that was a slip up on his part after he had caught wind of Amber's betrayal, and killed him for his suspicion, or that he had unknowingly killed Amber thinking it was me who would be voted off and still wanting close numbers. You however, made it seem that you were helping find the Serial Killer by voting for Jackal, while killing Amber to cause more suspicion against Lunar and getting rid of the only person who was looking closely for the SK at the same time. | ||
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