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TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 8

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GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 04 2011 23:14 GMT
#1630
then why the hell didn't you shoot me last night? nice OMGUS by the way I call you out on being the godfather and thus I must be red, I'll offer you a deal though, if you 100% believe me to be red then I'll hang today as long as you agree to hang tomorrow. If you are that sure that I am scum then it should sound like a wonderful deal to you, if you are scum then you'll come up with some brilliant theory why this is a scumplan.

My only condition is if you want to take me up on this the entire town has to agree to hang you tomorrow
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 04 2011 23:22 GMT
#1633
Works for me too

##unvote
##Vote GMarshal


Now town come tomorrow don't let LSB persuade you that "it was all a mistake" and "oh look at this much better target" tomorrow you fucking hang LSB
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 07:30 GMT
#1654
and here I thought I was going to have to hang myself to get scum. Sorry LSB the town dosn't seem to like the idea of hanging me first, and Im not going to risk a tie or worse by voting for myself

##unvote GMarshal
##Vote: LSB
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 19:51 GMT
#1672
Happy Birthday LSB and Ace!!!

Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 20:55 GMT
#1676


1. LSB is town
2. LSB is vigi.
3. LSB shot bumatlarge not LA.
4. I am speaking for one of our medics.
5. LSB was hit on the last night cycle.
6. LSB is protecting LA for reasons that none of us in the circle truly understand.
7. LSB believes LA to be town. That is his belief alone. I am not defending LA.
8. Nobody in our circle is defending LA.
9. I cannot name any of the others in our circle without throwing medics and others to the wolves. I will not do that. Do not ask Gryff. I will not answer.
10. I have been in contact with people that were in a circle with Foolishness.
!!. Their scum list matches ours on 3 out of 4 names.

1.) right...
2.) ok...
3.) then why the hell did he lie about it? and why bum? EXPLAIN!!!
4.) ok...
5.) and why didn't he claim that this morning, it would have been nice to know?
6.) Then I want an explanation out of him, PM will suffice
7.) LSB believes alot of strange stuff
8.) ok...
9.) fine, I can accept that, I don't know how much of your circle is imaginary though.
10.) really now, that dosn't clear them at all though, being in a circle with someone means very little.
11.) and this list is?

this proves nothing to me you provide no evidence, and no backup after LSB playing the way he is i'm not going to just take your word for it jackal sorry.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 21:27 GMT
#1685
something is off here, and I'm not sure what, I need to take a close look at the whole situation, so this is what it comes down to, LSB vs chaoser lynch. Any mistake here is going to essentially cost us the game.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 21:29 GMT
#1687
So for the sake of completeness I am going to post my entire PM history with chaoser, it will give everyone something nice to analyze, massive post incoming
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 21:48 GMT
#1693
I think this is the lot of them up until we moved the conversation over to skype

+ Show Spoiler +
GMarshal
Hi! Would you like to be the first member of my analysis circle? if so I'll be PMing you with my thoughts and bouncing analysis off you! I hope you can do the same with me. If you *are* scum, I don't care, as this will just give me more to analyze, if you aren't then this will be good for the both of us.

So yeah, RoL already warned us these would be necessary so I think we might as well start one, I think you should pick a 3rd member just so we can have the most unbiased analysis possible, if you don't want to pick a 3rd member then we can just go with a two person circle or I can choose.


+ Show Spoiler +
chaoser
You choose lol, and yes, lets, same to you.

GMarshal
So, I'm going to go with darmousseh, on a whim. that good with you?

chaoser
sure, i'd rather have a newbie in our group though since we're both decent players and I think by inviting a newbie in we prevent them from 1) lurking if they're mafia and 2) makes them feel more "part of the game" and so they'll actually want to play and help town instead of doing stupid shit/not saying anything so that by day 5 when we post analysis they'll come off as horrible red when they're just bored town, I know when I first started I chilled a lot and came off as that

GMarshal
I already sent him the invite, we can add a newb if you want though, go ahead and pick one randomly and we can incorporate him

chaoser
I picked icemat. I don't quite understand the cells. Sorry, running on pure coffee right now



+ Show Spoiler +
Original Message From GMarshal:
The cells are just a group of people you bounce ideas off, this encourages more active posting as you feel obliged by more active players asking you questions and bouncing ideas off you. This also leads to people posting more and more stuff to analyze

Did you send him a PM btw?

chaoser
yeah, i told him I was in a group with you

GMarhsal
ok, thanks

chaoser
What do you think about annul's mafia count thing? also people need to get off my back, wish this was guts and glory again...

Original Message From GMarshal:
annul is playing stupid and I would lynch him just on that

it is true you seem to always be picked on day 1... sorry?

Its a fair assumption to assume 6 mafia in a 30 player game, but it could also be a scum slip, right now I'm unsure, if we did lynch him and he flipped red then I would believe we have a 6 mafia team to deal with

chaoser
Mr. Wiggle's post is exactly what I was thinking, we don't know the GF set up so it could be that there's 4 players only, or 5 for KP. Usually 6 mafia is standard when the KP is calculated as 3 for 6, 2 for 4, 1 for 2. But this is like some crazy addition thing with GF being 1 KP so the math would be off? 6 is like 1+2.5 so 3.5. I guess it's not that off since that means 3 KP + 1 power. Maybe I'm just too tired ugh. I think I'mm go back to studying and then turn in for the night





+ Show Spoiler +

chaoser
While I do like the idea of cells, I think you should back off of it, it's detracting from everything else town needs to do, feel like it's just two town (you and BM) butting heads over an issue you won't agree on. It gives a chance for mafia to seem like they contributing too by just dropping in and commenting. Let's just work on our own circle, it seems some have thought it was a good idea too. At the very least, activity is at an all time high this game lol. I'll post this idea in thread too.

GMarshal
Ok, I'm done talking about cells then. Lets get scum hunting/poking inactives


+ Show Spoiler +
Original Message From GMarshal:
gryffindor is really aggravating! Anyway I doubt the town is stupid enough to lynch me off his accusations, so I guess its best we consider real targets. Any thoughts on annul?

chaoser
holy crap i'm busy for a day and the game turns into a shit fest...wtf annul...I'm willing to vote him just cause spam is BAD for the game, especially if it's just two people yelling at each other. At least you and grfy were talking about plans, he's just spamming with LSB...going to make it hard to play endgame when there's like 60 pages to go through...i'll catch up tmr morning, just wrote a 6 page paper in 2 hours. I aced my test btw lol.


+ Show Spoiler +
Original Message From GMarshal:
I made a quick topic for our little circle, I still mistrust icemac, so keep an eye on his posts

http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/hTug9L8PrCD

chaoser
Actually I was just about to pm you about that dude.

Annul:
At present, annul is bad for town whether he's mafia or not...I mean there's not helping town and there's being detrimental to town. Making the thread into a heated mud slinging battle=not very good atmosphere to be catching red in. Promoting discussion is fine, promoting flaming is not. It just lets mafia blend in and take sides and have an easy way of "contributing to discussion". I know he can do better too, it's just a question of why isn't he i guess. I hate policy lynches but if it keeps going this way...

I'm willing to have him as a fall back lynch if no one else comes up.

Icemat:
That being said, icemat is looking pretty scummy to me. He's not saying anything at all, he's saying there's nothing to analysis day 1 so he won't do it, doesn't take a real stance on anything. And then he votes an inactive when clearly we have A LOT to go on? come on now...what's your opinion on him?


+ Show Spoiler +
Original Message From GMarshal:
Annul I don't have a very good read on, he is either an aggressive/stupid townie or just scum. I agree though, he would make a fine fall back lynch, although I think LSB is pushing for him a little too hard.

Ice is playing faaaar to aggressive for a new player, its interesting how his PM to me is rather apologetic, which makes me think he is possibly flip flopping scum. Also notice how he didn't post all that much,yet he took annul/gryffindors side so he could have expected to go by kind of unnoticed yet noted as a contributor, also this would keep annul/gryffindor from jumping on him. Right now I have a minor scum read on him, hopefully we can bait out more information. Also anyone who says analysis isn't worth anything day 1 just looks scummy in my eyes

thoughts on Jackal?

chaoser
LSB just doesn't like him lawl lol. They got history. Can i see the PM from ice?

Gmarshal
Sure

"Hey chaoser told me that you me Darm and him are in the same circle or whatever. Just Pm'ing it up to get acquainted. My bad for shitting on your idea earlier. Still not a big fan of it but if it helps us win then so be it. talk to you later."


+ Show Spoiler +
Original Message From GMarshal:
Damnit, and I was sure he was town too... alright, thoughts? From the votes I would take a look at LD amongst others.

chaoser
dude...i don't trust icemac...he's in the group but hasn't said anything. He doesn't do analysis, gives shit reasons for not doing it, I think he's red, two bandwagons formed on him and annul, mafia couldn't do anything and bussed annul while trying to semi trying to see if they could get it off him and onto other targets. what do you think?

Original Message From GMarshal:
Its possible, but what *really* concerns me is the ridiculous blue sniping that took place, this makes me almost certain that a really good player is on the scum team, also notice how they used up all their KP (I'm assuming 3). The other possibility is those blues were stupid and claimed to someone (if wiggles claimed then it was probably to LSB, IMO), just my general thoughts.

icemac we can go after if no better lynches present themselves

chaoser
if it's a 6 man setup and annul died, it's 5 men, meaning 3 KP. I don't know if RoL is using 1 KP per kill or rounding up system, I just PMed him. If it's rounding up then 2.5 KP can still kill 3 people and they can still frame/cover so if that's the case then i still wouldn't trust DTs, it could even be mafia claiming, and then when the person gets lynched, they can say he got framed...

GMarshal
I agree, I'm not saying to trust DTs, I'm pointing out that whoever mafia is feels confident enough to not care to use frames/covers that much day 1

Chaoser
hey, what are you thoughts on __________? I think we can trust him. Talking to him on skype, if you got skype, get on and we can start a chat, I think we can get somewhere with this

(moved onto skype from there on)
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 21:56 GMT
#1694
On March 05 2011 07:23 GMarshal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2011 07:16 LSB wrote:
Um... why would I shoot Barundar if another vig was going to do it?


Well, why didn't you just shoot him instead of calling for a vigi to do it? Why did you shoot tonight rather than yesterday night? Do you know for a fact that there is a second vigi that could have overlapped with you, or is that just a guess?

you didn't reply to this question with the natural response "I was roleblocked" which would have been a perfectly logical response, instead you dodge the question. Having a difficult time keeping track of your lies? Or is there something im missing?
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 22:40 GMT
#1703
See the LSB situation makes no sense whatsoever, if LSB were really a vigi then he would have had no issue telling us the truth and then saying "as a confirmed townie, who was both rbed, and hit by scum and medic protected I hit bum for *insert valid reason here*" instead all he tells us is that he he hit a person who was most likely to be lynched rather than who he actually hit an dosn't mention his save? Sorry but if that is LSB's town play then I cannot believe a word he says from this point forward. Is it that difficult to understand that players on the town side SHOULD NOT LIE?!?!?!

Also its nice to see a blue circle formed, seems like we learned nothing of salem. I hope for all your sake's that LSB dosn't flip red or the streets will probably run with blue blood tonight.

Lynch LSB because he lied and town has no need of lies.

If he flips blue then its his own damn fault, if he wanted to defend LA he should have used logic not lies.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 22:43 GMT
#1705
On March 06 2011 07:42 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.:
Show nested quote +
4. LSB bandwagon is building up way too fast and unopposed.


...


Like the absolute lack of a bandwagon against chaoser we are seeing right now... oh...wait...
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 22:46 GMT
#1709
O.O
I'm just going to stand here and think about that for the next 20 minutes or so...
That is either an absolutely brilliant Town plan or the most diabolical piece of BS i have been graced with seeing...
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 23:06 GMT
#1721
Well, at this point I'm 100% chaoser isn't scum, if he is he has put in so much effort into making his pms consistent and logical that he deserves to keep my vote. Sorry LSB, but I refuse to let you get away with this justification for lying, if it really is an elaborate town plan then you should have tested it for inconsistencies before posting it, the whole hanging the vet proves nothing point is pretty strong.

Now if I'm wrong again and choaser flips red well then on my head be it. But I dont think thats going to happen
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 23:10 GMT
#1728
On February 10 2011 15:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
7. darmousseh - Medic, Night 1
.


Night 1 you say?

assuming the poor sod is still alive though, you have no reason to kill him, you get to "suggest" who he protects, and look that way you don't have to double stack foolishness. or really worry about his protects.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 23:17 GMT
#1736
And the reason LSB made this counter bandwagon in less than 24 hours is that he knows that if he loses his team is eliminated.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 23:21 GMT
#1742
On March 06 2011 08:20 LSB wrote:
So you agree that Jackal/Cogulation/The medic are townies?
Sweet.

So then why are all these townies supporting me?

Well, I think it's because when they got their role Pm, it didn't start with "You are mafia your scumbuddies are Annul/Seraph/Chaoser"


You know repetitively saying "you are scum!!!" is a rather poor argument.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 23:36 GMT
#1750
On March 06 2011 08:23 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2011 08:19 chaoser wrote:
It doesn't mean you're mafia, but it also doesn't mean you're 100% confirmed townie. 90% sure but not 100%. Why is this a problem? Look at the game where I did my MS paint analysis of BC. He survived a full two days cause we all thought he was 90% town. We then lost the game due to lying and bluesniping.

Why not 100%? Give me one solution. LA is Vet, and I get him to claim that he was hit when he wasn't.

Again, you are falling for the bait. Instead of evaluating like a townie with "which one is better if we lose it", you evaluate it like a mafia. Which one is better for us to kill? Which one won't hurt us if he is a confirmed townie.

In fact, it still shows because instead of trying to lynch LA. You still try to push me.


Ok time to draw a word picture from a town perspective, without knowing you shot someone else and were protected

Scenario 1
LSB is Vigi
LA is scum
LA should have died and didn't , this is near impossible, discard this possibility

Scenario 2
LSB is scum
LA is vet
LSB decides to waste a kp on a minor target to claim vigi, ok its doable, but odd, I guess if the scum team thought LA was a blue or really wanted to confirm LSB, this is a real possibility although unlikely here the best scenario is hang LSB

Scenario 3

LSB is vigi
LA is vet

it makes no sense for LSB to waste his shot on LA but it could happen, if we hang LSB then LA could still be red and lying

Scenario 4
LSB is scum
LA is scum
They are both lying double hang.
if we hang LSB we prove nothing

Whatever happens hanging LA and having him flip blue dosn't necessarily confirm LSB, although having him flip red confirms LSB as scum as it could still be a scum KP. If we lynch LSB and he flips anything but vigi it tells us nothing about LA. this actualy smacks of an LSB power play. if it were anyone else I would have a hard time believing it

TLDR: from a logical town perspective lynching either LA or LSB would not necessarily tell us anything about the other players.

This means that anyone who wanted to hang LSB was just as valid as anyone who wanted to hang LA as it gives us different and probably inconclusive information depending on the flip.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 05 2011 23:49 GMT
#1752
I know, the point of this is that before we knew that it was not necessarily a mistake to want to lynch LSB based on the information we had at hand
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 06 2011 00:07 GMT
#1756
On March 06 2011 09:05 deconduo wrote:
So last night the following happened:

1) Mafia hit Foolishness, LA, LSB. LSB shot bumatlarge. LSB was medic protected. LA is vet.

2) Mafia hit Foolishness, LA, bumatlarge. LSB is lying about being vig. LA is vet.

3) Mafia hit Foolishness, bumatlarge. LSB, LA lying.

4) Something I'm missing.

If it is situation 1 or 2, why would mafia hit LA?




4.) Mafia hit bumatlarge, foolishness, LA and LSB are lying

5.) mafia hit foolishness, LSB, LSB was medic saved, LSB hit bumatlarge, LA lied at LSB's request so did LSB.
Moderator
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
March 06 2011 00:39 GMT
#1767
Alright, take a good look at lsb, he has been lying all game. That is by definition not town play. While his bait and switch plan *looks* good its actually entirely inconclusive and proves nothing at all, all it did was derail town discussion with lies and try to protect LA from being lynched.

LSB is most likely scum, lynch him
Moderator
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