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On March 02 2011 01:53 deconduo wrote:
Bum has so few posts in the game I'm surprised no one has picked up on it. If Foolishness is focusing on different playstyles, this should be pretty obvious yet he hasn't mentioned it at all.
Considering all the games in the last few months where I survived past night 2 I've been scum, isn't this a good thing? ;D
I like this post a lot though, I'll be using the voting pattern list you made.
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On March 02 2011 06:52 GMarshal wrote:
not that I am aware of, but they can still use kp to frame and cover, so that dosn't mean much, since I can't see what benefit you guys would derive from lying about being role blocked then I will assume you are telling the truth.
My paranoid side thought LSB was setting me up for something. But nothing has come up in that area. It's been 20 hours since day post. If a vig shot he should have claimed by now. If scum was trying to set me up I think we would have seen the beginnings of that by now. So I'm going to go with the assumption that scum has 3.5 - 4 kp. That would almost certainly require multiple godfathers. Or a boat load of scum. Neither scenario is all that appealing.
The only reason I can think of for either of us to lie would be to force town to lynch both of us to trade 1 townie for 1 scum. With the kp at scums disposal I can't even fathom why they would feel compelled to do that atm. Even if a vigi shot and has not claimed, scum would have at least 3 kp at their disposal.
Of course the flip side of all this is either LSB or I or both of us is lying to appear to be town. Again with the kp mafia appears to be holding why bother?
Analyze that Barundar!!! I'm going bowling. Sorry (apology, lynch him!!!!)
I won't be back until tomorrow. If I post again tonight it probably won't be coherent. 
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Taking a break from work cause I love analyzing stuff. Vigi still hasn't claimed yet. Assuming there is no vigi:
1) Mafia actually roleblocked the two of them
2) One of them is lying
Mafia roleblocked both
1) This means there's more mafia than we assumed, either way, no matter what setup we think up, mafia will have to have 4 KP. This brings up questions:
1) 4 KP is a bit overpowered, they can overrun most medic/vets and still come out with 3 kills per night. If this was the case, the question of why priority 1 players (LSB, Foolishness) aren't dead yet comes up.
2) Why would they roleblock two players and then not claim vigi themselves to "clear" one of their own? The fact that no one claimed vigi, whether an actual vigi or a scum is odd.
One of them is lying
1) This means mafia doesn't have 4 KP.
2) The question is then, why would mafia lie? They should know their own KP count so it's a little weird. The only explanation is there was a miscommunication between the mafia in which case this is a HUGE scumslip.
At the very least this should be investigated more. I don't have time, got a test in an hour but hopefully this isn't as fail an analysis as the one I did on the BC situation...
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I agree 4 KP is overpowered, but I do believe that Jackal is telling the truth.
I still think we should lynch Barundar.
My points about him forcing analysis still stands.
Or we should check out the Iceman lynch day 1 to see if it was actually a bus by mafia.
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If we trust Annul, and assume that there is one godfather.
4 Mafia left, 1 of which is godfather That leaves mafia with 2.5 KP. Which is a bit suspect, especially since 3 people died night one.
A more standard setup would be 6 mafia, 1 of which is godfather
5 Mafia left, 1 of which is godfather That leaves mafia with 3 KP. Mafia would have used all their KP on hits night one, meaning if they roleblocked both me and Jackal, that means a vig should have hit.
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On March 02 2011 09:01 LSB wrote:
I agree 4 KP is overpowered, but I do believe that Jackal is telling the truth.
I still think we should lynch Barundar.
My points about him forcing analysis still stands.
Or we should check out the Iceman lynch day 1 to see if it was actually a bus by mafia.
People who voted for annul day 1:
LSB, chaoser, Gryff, Cubed, kevconsim, me.
Note that apart from me all of these voted for icemac on day 2. If it was a bus then this would be a group to look at very closely.
People who voted for icemac day 1:
Lunar, bum*, why
*was icanfly at this point I think.
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Why was the first to point out Icemac, coincidentally he did this after my assault on annul.
At the same time though, he wasn't really a annul supporter and did attack him a few times.
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## Vote JBright
Out of everyone who has been posting i have been suspicious of him since yesterday. I guess we will see.
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On March 02 2011 10:05 kevconsim wrote:
## Vote JBright
Out of everyone who has been posting i have been suspicious of him since yesterday. I guess we will see.
Why are you suspicious of him?
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Vancouver14381 Posts
On March 02 2011 01:35 gryffindor wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2011 23:52 JBright wrote:On March 01 2011 19:14 Barundar wrote:@JBright if you are town, then you keep fighting. Popping up making 1 post defending yourself and then giving up isn't good enough. Why don't you start contributing instead? If I were a Vig, I would save my hit for someone more important, who I couldn't get lynched by making a case towards the town. I lol'd Well, that was something I wrote right before I went to sleep, so I wasn't going to answer any more until later. Going back to SA's axis of evil, I already gave my (non)opinion on LD, but what about Seraph? Since I haven't been too active myself, I can hardly point my fingers at another low activity player. He seems to come on in spurts during each day/night cycle and didn't have very much to say except for his latest post. I didn't think too much of it, but I suppose the part about the icemac analysis seems strange. There was only ~20 min before the end of voting, so who was he really trying to convince? Won't be reading this until at least 9pm Eastern, so I'll place my vote now. Since I've already thrown around some FoS, might as well vote for one of them. I believe that townies tend to play more aggressive in terms of scum hunting, so I'll keep my vote off GM and SA for now. If LD does post before voting ends, I could be persuaded to vote for him. I'll just go with gryffindor since he's the third of my gut picks. ##Vote: Gryffindor I have actually been defending most of the bigger wagons to people in PMs. 1) why did you feel the need to use parenthesis here? I have only seen scum do that 2) why would you vote for the 3rd of your gut reads? That looks suspicious. @LSB1) why are you defending LD? 2) you cut out the pimp shoes 3) I feel like you are fake-defending JBright to cover up your actual wanting to keep LD alive
I actually use parentheses a lot in normal chat, so that's something that stuck with me. The three names I listed were not listed in order of suspicion and since I can't really be sure if my "gut feeling" on SA and GM are real or omgus, I went with you.
I was hoping for a bit more development during this cycle while I was at work, but it's been quiet so far. With ~60 minutes left, I'm surprised there are 8 missing votes in the voting thread. Right now I'm in the lead while LD is close behind...wonder what happens if I switch my vote to him and we get a tie. Do we get a double lynch or do we get a predetermined result like Orgah?
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United States22154 Posts
theres almost 24 hours left JBright, we are on 48 hour days
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Vancouver14381 Posts
You're right. I just saw 2 day ago for the voting thread and got it mixed up with Orgah. Boom, there goes any credibility I was trying to build up.
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Sorry guys I have like three midterms hacking away at my ass right now. Catching up~~ I can read in 20 mins no prob >_>
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Oh wait day ends tommorow doesn't it? Awesome, I need the time 
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JBright is town. kevconsim is scum.
Don't even ask me to explain, analyze, prove.
It is what it is.
UNVOTE: LD
VOTE: kevconsim
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On March 02 2011 11:53 Jackal58 wrote:
JBright is town. kevconsim is scum.
Don't even ask me to explain, analyze, prove.
It is what it is.
UNVOTE: LD
VOTE: kevconsim
Are you in contact with a DT or is this based off of analysis?
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On March 02 2011 12:07 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2011 11:53 Jackal58 wrote:
JBright is town. kevconsim is scum.
Don't even ask me to explain, analyze, prove.
It is what it is.
UNVOTE: LD
VOTE: kevconsim
Are you in contact with a DT or is this based off of analysis?
It's based off of 50 some years of people trying to blow smoke up my ass.
He's scum.
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Interesting uhh explanation...
How about we just kill Barundar?
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On March 02 2011 12:13 LSB wrote:
Interesting uhh explanation...
How about we just kill Barundar?
Because I'm not convinced Barunder is scum.
kevinconscum is.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
As the person who started the LD case, I would like to say I think we should hold off on killing him for now. There are a few reasons I say this:
1) The initial reasons for me coming out against LD were because I looked at the day's lynch candidates (icemac, LSB, Barundar) and thought they were all terrible. Keep in mind this was with ~6 hours left in the day, so I had to rush to try to make a case for someone else. I still stand by with what I said in that LD was 100% a better lynch than any of the above 3 yesterday.
2) I'm not sure what to make of LD's responses. Some of the things he has said seemed to point to him to be town, others make him look suspicious. As long as he starts/continues to be active I'm not sure I want to call him scum. We keep him on a short leash and see what happens.
3) JBright and Seraph are both better lynch candidates today. There is already a well known case against JBright. In just a short while expect me to post one against Seraph.
4) We pressured LD because he was acting strange and he responded. We should be doing the same to others right now (Seraph, Kevconsim, Ohn).
I'm still not sold on the whole PM thing that happened between us. From my perspective, he said he would call out a proven mafia and failed to do so. From his perspective, he misunderstood what I said or forgot or something. Unless everyone else sees it from my perspective over his I'm just going to ignore this for now.
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EPT
