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TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 6

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deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 08 2011 10:33 GMT
#2046
Read from bottom one up, started with nested quotes.

3/2/11 02:24
+ Show Spoiler +


Original Message From gryffindor:
you know what's both interesting and cool?
JBright and Seraph were both on icemac, but not annul, and they are two of the leading wagons. JBright's vote on me is so pitiful, but I don't feel like OMGUSing again

Show nested quote +
Original Message From deconduo:
Signs you need a break:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]




Original Message From gryffindor:
Already on top of it!

To: Coagulation [ Profile | Buddy | Report ]
Subject: mafi
Date: 3/1/11 21:23
why are you voting JBright with a nearly RVS-style post on d3? Can you not make a case? Like, are you completely incapable of giving proper reasoning?

Original Message From deconduo:
On a different note, Coag has 110 posts in the game, all but ~3 of them are one liners. I know he has a spammy reputation but I'm pretty sure he contributed a lot more in Orgah.

Original Message From gryffindor:
I am impressed.
That was a very good analysis.

I don't believe he believes LD is dead. There is no way. LD has been posting today.
Why is Foolishness alive still? There are only 2 explanations
1) Mafia feel like Foolishness will be medic protected
2) Foolishness is mafia

Otherwise, they would definitely be killing him. He is much more outspoken than this as a townie, and the fact that he is such a "veteran" is indicative he will actually have a role.

I also expect you have a role, though I'm not asking you to divulge me.


3/2/11 00:11
+ Show Spoiler +


Original Message From gryffindor:
I thought southern ireland was

What do you expect made him shift focus away from LD?
Do you feel he was attempting to bus LD.. well, not bus, but create distancing?

Show nested quote +
Original Message From deconduo:
Well its safer to assume the worst until a vig claims. It could also be 2 GF, 3 grunts which would add up right too. That would explain the ambiguity on the godfather numbers.

Foolishness had changed his focus to Seraph yesterday over LD. He didn't really explain why but he did ask for a vig shot on seraph and said he would be pushing for a seraph lynch today.

Also Ireland is not part of the UK -_-

Original Message From gryffindor:
I said United Kingdom, didn't I?
Also, I expected there to be 5 mafia left. Why do you believe there are 6?
2 days from now, unless we get mafia, will definitely be LYLO. I said that in the thread already, but that was assuming FIVE, not six.

If there are 6 left, with all the kp/mechanics, I am sort of disappointed in the balance.

You definitely have played with me a few times, and you are underrating yourself, because you should be much more confident in your ability. Sometimes, simply not being lynched as town is better than being a great scumhunter. Look at me, I'm very good at catching scum, but I have a hard time convincing people that I am correct. I also get lynched a lot, regardless of my alignment, because my playstyle is very inefficient compared to the logical and non-gut style that is used by people who are considered "good" in terms of convincing people of things.

I could use weighted language in the style of L to convince people, but I am not going to change myself. I have done it in the past, and I really didn't enjoy it, as me pushing lynches in a mini mafia here lead to a few greens dying. Therefore, even if I consider GMarshal scum, for instance, I'm not going to be pushing him.

Why? Because it's pointless whether or not he is scum if I can't convince a bandwagon to form around him.

Speaking of bandwagons, I wouldn't be surprised if LD/JBright/Seraph were all town.

Speaking of their alignments, why do you believe Foolishness is now voting for Seraph, when he made a big case on LD yesterday, with only a minor FoS on Seraph?

Original Message From deconduo:
Really? I always feel out of the loop and a bit lost as town. In fact I've been trying to play a bit more confident and more aggressive than normal. Strange that it seems to have had the opposite effect. What games did I seem less out of it in? I wouldn't be surprised if I was mafia in all of them.

I'm flattered that you think I'm a good scumhunter but I'm really not I would consider myself a good townie but a bad scumhunter if that makes sense. I've never been lynched as town. I'm usually good at drawing hits and I get killed pretty early on by mafia. But I've also never 'caught' a mafia as it were. If I have a list of 6-7 FoSes usually at most one is mafia. (I know this because whenever I die I play a little game with myself when I ask host for the role list. Most I've gotten right is 2 ) Even with annul I probably would have unvoted him near the end if I wasn't asleep at the time. I was kinda surprised that he was mafia tbh.

As regards the Foolishness thing, what's holding me back somewhat is that I kinda agree with him about Lunar. While I wouldn't have FoSd him initially his response to Foolishness has been less than stellar. I've been considering keeping this quiet for now and simply helping push the lynch on LD. If he flips red then I really doubt Foolishness, as mafia, tried to divert the bandwagon from LSB to LD. If LD flips town then I will definitely pushing them.

However, I have a problem here too. If there was no vig shot last night then we could be at mylo:

3.5 KP : 1 GF, 5 grunts

13 - 6 now
13 - 5 lynch 1, 3 KP left
10 - 5 3 KP used
10 - 4 lynch 1, 2.5 KP left
7 - 4 2.5 KP used
7 - 3 lynch 1, 2 KP left
5 - 3 2 KP used
5 - 2 lynch 1, 1.5 KP left
3 - 2 1.5 KP used
3 - 1 lynch 1, 1 KP left
2 - 1 1 KP used -> lylo.

There are a couple of assumptions in there that could be wrong, and it doesn't take into account vigs, bombers, medic saves, vet hits etc. Even still if we don't hit mafia today it could be really bad.

Sorry for the big wall of stuff. I just needed someone to unload my thoughts onto and you were the most convenient I still haven't forgiven you for calling me English though.

Original Message From gryffindor:
Now that FIRST one is interesting.
I wouldn't be surprised if he was the godfather.

Can we afford to lose a player like you, me, LSB or Foolishness if they are town, though? I mean, we could afford to, but it's not advisable.

We need the active players who are good scumhunters around.

BTW, I don't mean for you to take this the wrong way, but you seem really out of it in comparison to games I've played with you in the past. I definitely would have an excuse for that, if the same was said for me, but I actually feel my play has been rather calm, composed, and collected in comparison to my normal play... regardless of what is going on in my life. So, basically, what I want you to answer is this: Why do you feel so out of the loop?


Original Message From deconduo:
And this was the first one:



Original Message From Foolishness:
Can you give me an explanation of what happened between you and gryffindor in PM land? I know I'm probably making you angry for having to explain again, but if he messed up really bad I can help gather support for you in the thread. Or anyone else you might want to lynch.


3/1/11 19:44
+ Show Spoiler +



Original Message From gryffindor:
I would find that suspicious as fuck, especially if it was from an experienced player, like Foolishness.

Show nested quote +
Original Message From deconduo:
I know this might sound strange but hear me out.

Suppose someone sent you a PM saying that they could 'help you get xxxx, or anyone else you want lynched'

In addition, a short time later they tell you to lay off on LSB, saying if he's scum he will slip up later. 'Just ignore him'

Finally, if you knew they told Barundar to do the same thing (ignore LSB).

Would that be really really suspicious? Or am I reading too much into it.


I really don't think he's mafia
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 08 2011 23:35 GMT
#2078
On March 08 2011 20:42 gryffindor wrote:
why were you voting me, then?
i'm going back to bed... I had my alarm set around 4am



Coag told me to. However I realise just because he is clear doesn't make him right.

Unvote
##Vote: oHn
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 09 2011 00:16 GMT
#2087
@ Ser Aspi:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888&currentpage=101#2013
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 09 2011 00:22 GMT
#2090
On March 09 2011 09:18 gryffindor wrote:
also, i noticed ohN was on LD whenever LD was at 6 and the alternate wagon. I doubt ohN and LD are mafia together.

Show nested quote +
On March 08 2011 09:58 ohN wrote:
Seems to be a pretty strong case against gryff.

##Vote: gryffindor

Sheeping LSB right here. If this was LYLO, I wouldn't blame him, but it's not. He is not using his head.

@Deconduo, you listed Gmarshal and chaoser in your "possible factions"

- what for?


Annul accused them both at the start
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 09 2011 00:24 GMT
#2092
On March 09 2011 09:23 gryffindor wrote:
Oh, the post I was insanely suspicious about, and have been talking about for 2 weeks?

like, where I said, oh, guys, I have this guaranteed scumtell... we have 2 scum caught here?

I'm glad SOMEONE noticed that.


Well grouped them together in a couple of posts iirc, but yeah.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 09 2011 00:24 GMT
#2093
EBWOP: Well he grouped
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 09 2011 22:46 GMT
#2223
gryff



Ok the way I see it is as follows:

Pretty much confirmed town
Coagulation
LSB
Jackal58

Probably town
Ser Aspi
CubEdIn

The rest

deconduo
GMarshal
kevconsim
LunarDestiny
why

Assuming 3 maf and no saves/vet tonight we are at lylo tomorrow. I feel our best bet is to lynch either LD or kev, and I'm leaning towards LD. Gryff thought that kev was just really bad as opposed to scum, and I do trust his judgement somewhat.

Of the rest; I know I'm town and I don't have a good enough read on why or GMarshal to want to risk killing them. I would still lynch kev ahead of either of them.

deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 10 2011 22:17 GMT
#2260
##Vote: LunarDestiny

Reasons explained yesterday, he's the best lynch at this point.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 10 2011 23:32 GMT
#2264
On March 11 2011 08:19 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2011 07:17 deconduo wrote:
##Vote: LunarDestiny

Reasons explained yesterday, he's the best lynch at this point.

Yes, but do you think he is the godfather?


If we had to lynch the godfather today I would lynch GMarshal or Cubed. However, I think Lunar is the safest bet at the moment given that its lylo.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 10 2011 23:36 GMT
#2265
We're pretty sure its 5-3 now.

Lynch grunt:
5-2
3-2
3-1
2-1

Lynch GF:
5-2
4-2 - Mylo anyway and we can't no-lynch
4-1
3-1 - Still mylo


Essentially I don't think dropping the KP helps much. Safer to lynch an almost sure thing imo.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 12 2011 19:08 GMT
#2316
Vote: CubedIn

From Jackal:

LD i just don't get. Why did he just quit? Did I miss a post of his?
If he is just going to come in and vote himself it doesn't really matter if he's scum or not. He might as well die today.
Kev has bothered me from the beginning. I can't put a real finger on it. Ser Apsi told me he was blue fishing mighty hard. He's also all about OMGUS without saying much of anything else.

I still have a feeling GM is town. A very manipulated townie. If he scum he's played one of the most gruesome games ever.

I think right now I'd be most comfortable with LD today and Cubed for tomorrows lynch.
LD is useless and Cubed is more likely gf than kev.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 01:33 GMT
#2327
Fucking hell, I was about to write a huge rant over hidden roles not being stated in the OP

Well played.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 22:23 GMT
#2373
On March 14 2011 07:14 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Sorry, just got back from work. I will take a shower then post the day post if Meapak hasn't already.


F5F5F5

Anyone else notice this:

On March 13 2011 11:22 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
CubEdIn The Mafia Goon has been lynched.



I don't think kev is the last mafia, I really doubt he's the godfather. Unless I missed something. I'm pretty certain it has to be why.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 23:00 GMT
#2380
##Vote: GMarshal

No way mafia picked kev as godfather.

deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 23:02 GMT
#2381
Did mafia choose a godfather or was it assigned?
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 23:06 GMT
#2384
On March 14 2011 08:03 GMarshal wrote:
I agree, however I am not scum and if you aren't then you just handed kev the game

Also decon you would make a fine godfather, and why did say he thought you were scum

However I don't want to vote yet in case kev is the gf and immediately jumps on the wagon, ending the day with a majority lynch


-If you were mafia would you pick some new player as godfather?

-Where did why say I was scum?

-Good point, I'll unvote.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 23:06 GMT
#2385
Unvote:GMarshal
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 23:19 GMT
#2390
I can do the same thing:


Original Message From Jackal58:
Yo.
Other than LSB you're about the only one left I'm sure is town.
On that note questions for you.
Do you really think GMarshall is scum? I think he defended Chaoser too damn hard and too long. But you've played this more than I have.
Between keviconsim and CubEdin who do you think is most likely to be the 3rd scum left?
Reading your last posts in the thread you seem to be leaning towards LD, GMarshall and Cubed. Do I have this right and am I completely off base with kevi?
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 13 2011 23:40 GMT
#2394
On March 14 2011 08:30 GMarshal wrote:
Alright decon I'm done reading over your posts, my gut says Not Guilty but I need to read over kevconisms too and think about it some more, damn I *hate* lylo.


That was fast considering I have about 150 posts

This is how I see it right now:

GMarshal
-Has defended every single mafia apart from cubed (I think)
-Hasn't been on a right bandwagon until LD (which was a sure thing anyway)
-Bussed by annul along with chaoser. This was pointed out by gryff on day 1.

-Would mafia, especially godfather be that obvious?

kev
-Hasn't made a single useful post all game. All he has done is latched onto whatever bandwagon of the day was.

-Highly unlikely candidate for godfather imo.


Time for sleep for me now, I'll be back tomorrow evening. In the meanwhile I'd appreciate it if you guys wrote up a case against me or just your opinion on me. Also a defence on why you aren't mafia. I'll do the same tomorrow. Especially kev, if you are town and want to win, start posting. Just because I FOS GMarshal more right now doesn't give you permission to continue lurking like you've done all game.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
March 14 2011 21:19 GMT
#2419
Wow, really? I come back to this?

kev voting for me because 'Jackal told me to do it' No other reason, just 2 PMs pulled from thin air saying I'm mafia. Right.

GMarshal voting for me over some messed up, totally wrong WIFOM thing over who was killed last night. You even admit I've done nothing scummy! You think I'm so good I went the whole game as maf without a single mistake?
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