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On March 01 2011 12:07 GMarshal wrote:
O.O then I believe CubEdIn was a vigi and shot last night as he told me in PM that he was particularly suspicious of ON, its possible it was someone else or that one of you is lying
either a vigi shot and mafia only used 1.5 KP for 2 kills and used 2KP for powers
or
vigi didn't shoot and mafia used 2.5 KP for 3 kills and 0.5KP for Roleblock on LSB (if he really did get roleblocked)
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Then either someone is lying or there were 7 mafia
4 KP->3.5 KP->1 KP for 2 roleblocks and 2.5 KP for 3 kills unless vigi
But that means they started with 4 KP...is that a normal KP to have?
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that's if there was no vigi shot. I suggest vigi claims the shot
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On March 01 2011 12:17 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2011 12:15 chaoser wrote:
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Then either someone is lying or there were 7 mafia
4 KP->3.5 KP->1 KP for 2 roleblocks and 2.5 KP for 3 kills unless vigi
But that means they started with 4 KP...is that a normal KP to have? We would have lost 4 townies on night 1. OP alludes to the possibility of multiple godfathers in play. We need a vigi claim now.
even with multiple GF, lets say there were 2 GF, that would mean probs 3 regular for 3.5KP to start. Annul died, still 3 KP, only enough for 1 RB.
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On March 01 2011 12:22 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2011 12:20 chaoser wrote:On March 01 2011 12:17 Jackal58 wrote:On March 01 2011 12:15 chaoser wrote:
...
Then either someone is lying or there were 7 mafia
4 KP->3.5 KP->1 KP for 2 roleblocks and 2.5 KP for 3 kills unless vigi
But that means they started with 4 KP...is that a normal KP to have? We would have lost 4 townies on night 1. OP alludes to the possibility of multiple godfathers in play. We need a vigi claim now. even with multiple GF, lets say there were 2 GF, that would mean probs 3 regular for 3.5KP to start. Annul died, still 3 KP, only enough for 1 RB. I know. I'm going to take Gmarshalls advice atm.
Good call
##vote LunarDestiny
pressure pressure
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sorry guys! home stretch of midterms coming up! I'll be active tomorrow for sure.
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Also, can we stop with the pics? at least make it smaller. It's annoying to have to scroll down to read what you wrote =_=
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On March 02 2011 00:38 LSB wrote:
I don't get the LD lynch.
Am I reading it right, or is it all based on one PM? (And also how LD is a bit more inactive than usual?)
I mean, it's all circumstantial evidence but it's all we have to go on right now. OK BACK TO WORK NO TL!!! see you guys tomorrow!
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Taking a break from work cause I love analyzing stuff. Vigi still hasn't claimed yet. Assuming there is no vigi:
1) Mafia actually roleblocked the two of them
2) One of them is lying
Mafia roleblocked both
1) This means there's more mafia than we assumed, either way, no matter what setup we think up, mafia will have to have 4 KP. This brings up questions:
1) 4 KP is a bit overpowered, they can overrun most medic/vets and still come out with 3 kills per night. If this was the case, the question of why priority 1 players (LSB, Foolishness) aren't dead yet comes up.
2) Why would they roleblock two players and then not claim vigi themselves to "clear" one of their own? The fact that no one claimed vigi, whether an actual vigi or a scum is odd.
One of them is lying
1) This means mafia doesn't have 4 KP.
2) The question is then, why would mafia lie? They should know their own KP count so it's a little weird. The only explanation is there was a miscommunication between the mafia in which case this is a HUGE scumslip.
At the very least this should be investigated more. I don't have time, got a test in an hour but hopefully this isn't as fail an analysis as the one I did on the BC situation...
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Roleblock: Cost .5KP blocks a player from using his power during that night. Player is notified of being role blocked.
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Analysis on the RB incoming
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Analysis of the 2 RB:
At this point, I think it's safe to assume no vigi is goign to claim. There are a lot of inconsistancies with the killings and roleblocking last night so I will write a detailed post to try to go after all possibilities.
KP analysis:
1)Three kills happened. Two Roleblocks happened.
This means at the very least, 3.5 KP were used. Adding in annul's 0.5 KP, mafia had 4 KP at the start of game. They currently can still kill 4 people a day.
2)Three kills happened. One Roleblock happened.
This means at the very least, 3 KP were used. Adding in annul's 0.5 KP, mafia had 3.5 KP at the start of game. They no longer can kill 4 people a day.
Questions/problems/comments if (1) happened:
1)Assuming that mafia started with 4KP, that means every mislynch would be 5 dead. That means game would potentially be over by end of night 3 since 15 people would have died at that point. I think, while RoL did say we were being punished, this setup, combined with the mafia powers, would be too OP for mafia. They could override medic protects or vigis like nothing and STILL have 0.5 KP left over for a power (cover/frame/roleblock). Even with annul lynched, mafia still has the ability to kill 4 people a night, they just lose their ability to use a power as well. To be able to lose a mafia and still have 4 KP seems unlikely.
2)If this is indeed the setup that mafia have, the question of why are LSB and Foolishness still alive comes up. Medic protects would be useless unless the person was also a vet. Two days have past and yet they were left untouched. If mafia WASN'T them, they'd have tried a hit on them already since, according to the list, they are the two strongest players. The only reason mafia wouldn't hit them is either 1) mafia is inexperienced and are new to TL mafia or 2) They are mafia. I highly doubt the first option given RoL's statement about wanting us to be punished for Salem.
3)Why would mafia roleblock two people?
Questions/problems/comments if (2) happened:
1) This setup makes a bit more sense since 3.5 KP means mafia can either kill 4 or kill 3 and use KP for 1 mafia power use. If mafia loses one, they lose the ability to kill 4. This still means that mafia had the ability to kill 4 until they lost one member though, so it's still iffy.
2) The main question here is, why would mafia lie?
Out of both, the two most important questions are:
1) In the case of (1), Why would mafia roleblock two people?
and
2) In the case of (2), Why would mafia lie?
Both questions are deeply tied to town's assumption that the setup is 1 GF and 5 mafia, leading to KP setup (2).
Case (1):
Mafia would roleblock two people for a very simple reason. Because they thought both were blue. This would make a lot of sense except for a few things.
1) In thread, LSB had claimed green
2) Why wouldn't they claim vigi then? We all thought the mafia had 3 KP. This situation makes it seem like mafia has 3.5 KP. Mafia could have come in, claimed vigi and cleared our confusion while also appearing town sided. If they don't, then they are basically soft-confirming two townies. Mafia wouldn't want to do this. This point, tied with the first point makes me question this case.
Case (2):
Why mafia would lie is another interesting question. The only reason I can think of is that they want to appear town. Except this has problems as well.
1) If they actually wanted to appear town then they wouldn't have roleblocked anyone. Instead they would have covered the liar and then claimed roleblock. Or have GF claim roleblock.
2) By roleblocking and then lying, they are bringing attention to their "clear a mafia" plan and it would fail.
The only way I can see case (2) happening is if there was miscommunication between members of the mafia team. The goal of the mafia would then to be to play the situation down and hope people turn to other issues.
In the first case, the mafia can, at any time, claim vigi and resolve the issue. In the second case, mafia CAN'T resolve the issue and can only try to move the town's conciousness elsewhere. This combined with the fact that:
2)If this is indeed the setup that mafia have, the question of why are LSB and Foolishness still alive comes up. Medic protects would be useless unless the person was also a vet. Two days have past and yet they were left untouched. If mafia WASN'T them, they'd have tried a hit on them already since, according to the list, they are the two strongest players. The only reason mafia wouldn't hit them is either 1) mafia is inexperienced and are new to TL mafia or 2) They are mafia. I highly doubt the first option given RoL's statement about wanting us to be punished for Salem.
makes me think case (2) is what happened. The only way to clear the situation up then is to lynch one of the two. Since LSB has been under suspicion and has done some scummy things (as covered in bum's post), I think he would be the best choice.
##vote LSB
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On March 03 2011 03:51 GMarshal wrote:
Its day 3 and LSB isn't dead, this to me is incredibly suspicious, usually I wouldn't go after a major player like him, but seeing what he flips will tell us alot about other peoples alignments, specifically chaoser, barundar and bumatlarge. Lets see what LSB flips, shall we?
Also chaoser you neglected to consider that perhaps mafia is only allowed to kill up to 3 people per night.
##Unvote Jbright
##Vote LSB
If that was the case then RoL would have written that in the OP.
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we can ask then
RoL, are mafia limited in kill numbers every night? (ie. they were only allowed to kill 3 people the first night whether they had 3.5 KP or 4 KP)
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oops, i used the wrong font x_x sorry!!!
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can i change the font color? this is bothering me...
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ok so it still works out then
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Also, I won't be back till at least 10, last midterm at 8. wish me luck~~
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On March 03 2011 06:55 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 06:50 Jackal58 wrote:On March 03 2011 06:43 deconduo wrote:
Just a few things:
Cubed does have a good point that people seem to be missing. Why ignore the possibility of Jackal being the one with the fake roleclaim. Chaoser doesn't even mention it and bum simply says 'Now, I can't say much on jackal'
Regardless of what the situation is with them is, the fact that this was ignored in the analysis is the important point.
Those PMs do paint a somewhat different picture of seraph. If seraph was trying to bus annul why didn't he do so in the thread?
It's because LSB is at the front end of several peoples scum list. The only reason I can think of. I fully expected to be thoroughly grilled by posting my RB. Again the point is not whether or not you are more suspicious than LSB, but that chaos and bum completely ignored the possibility of it.
I don't have any suspicions on jackal. I have suspicions on LSB. I've written about him previously. I am 80% convinced he is mafia. I'm going to push for his lynch. That being said, what foolishness said really vibes well with me. We can look at this situation again in day if we want to, it'll always be here. But that's not the case with the inactives.
##unvote LSB
##vote Jbright
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EPT
