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On January 29 2011 13:00 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 11:33 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
##Unvote Mr. Wiggles
##Vote Nemesis Something to note is that is that mr.wiggles suddenly changed his vote from abstaining to me when RoL was in danger of being lynched. Looking back at his post, he hasn't made any mentions of being suspicious of me. The only reason I can think of for his last minute change of vote is to save RoL. So if RoL flips scum, I would take a good look at this guy. His post are mostly fluff and he doesn't really take a position on anything. I suggest Mr. Wiggles for dt check/vigi hit.
I wasn't abstaining. I voted myself as a placeholder, as I wasn't sure if I was going to be home today after school or not. I made my intentions clear that I was going to change my vote before the lynch, but wasn't going to change it two minutes before the deadline when I got to my comp after dinner, 11:00KST, as I thought it was. Then people continued voting, and I figured that the voting deadline was extended. The choice for me was between you and Mr. Zergling, and it seemed Mr. Zergling was going to be modkilled, as he was. So my vote landed on you. To be honest, I wasn't getting scum vibes from RoL, and I know he's capable of good scum-hunting from my other game with him. You, however, I am unfamiliar with, and your posts in defense of yourself did not do much to convince me of your innocence. As such, I considered you to be the better candidate for my vote tonight. Sorry if the timing of it was after some other votes switched around, but that was my intention since the original deadline I thought I barely had time for, or else it would have happened 30 minutes earlier.
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On January 30 2011 03:45 Kavdragon wrote:
Can someone explain to me why having the Vig claim before, or after is useful? Why does he need to claim at all?
I feel he shouldn't claim. There aren't PMs in this game besides mason circle, so it's not like he could start a town circle or something. It doesn't make much sense to claim, besides to say, "Hey, look at me, I'm town!", and use up medic protection or get shot the next night.
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On January 30 2011 11:19 zerroth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 11:14 kitaman27 wrote:On January 30 2011 11:12 kitaman27 wrote:
That was the first thing that came to mind when he said you two should die as if he role claimed or something. I didn't realize you two had votes on him until afterward. Opps, that was in response to zerroth. Cool only one night death. I was guessing he suspected me because i was a bit inactive before as well as i had voted him previously. Kk so I'm guessing that the mafia did not kill anyone this night but the sk did?
It might be the other way around, because it refers to the other person as an individual, so I would assume that would be SK.
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On January 30 2011 12:20 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 12:13 darmousseh wrote:On January 30 2011 12:09 Nemesis wrote:On January 30 2011 11:45 Kenpachi wrote:oh man Master Butcher lol its now obvious that is pointing to Beneather.. Is he Mafia, Vig, or SK is the question. Hahaha, nice find there. And that is quite a wonderful story :X So RoL flipped green. Looks like I have to reevaluate my suspects for now. Is it possible that RoL was an SK? Or are we sure he was green? I think that he was most likely green, but we can probably find out by waiting and seeing if anyone claims they have been hit. Yesterday, 2 people claimed to have been hit: Mr. WIggles and Siniquity, and there were 2 deaths, so from what it seems 1 person(probably SK) didn't submit his night action tonight, so there should be 3 hits tonight.
Where did I claim being hit?
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On January 31 2011 03:13 BrownBear wrote:
People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night.
This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario:
NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked.
NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night"
Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong?
There's still a possibility, though unlikely, that mafia has 3 kp. 2 seems more likely though. I think it was an SK who didn't send in his hit.
The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone.
He is referred to as man, singular, then it is "your" night action, clues on "him", and "he" didn't kill anyone. These all refer to one person. The only single killers are vig and SK, and vig doesn't have to hit night two, so it must be SK, who is still alive, and who has clues hidden in the day post.
This also tells us that there both clues referring to one of the mafia and the SK.
We also have to keep in mind the possibility that mafia hit the SK as well, for your part dealing with night 2. If that's the case, I doubt SK will claim he was hit, as medics would know they didn't protect him, it draws attention to himself, and makes the DT likely to check his alignment.
So, if we do get a claim, it means either:
A. Mafia has 2 kp
B. Mafia has 3 kp and hit SK, (or two town if another claim comes forward)
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On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote:
That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc.
Yes, but those roles aren't compelled to kill anyone, and don't have clues left behind them, implying SK, see what I wrote two posts back.
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On January 31 2011 03:51 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 03:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote:
That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc. Yes, but those roles aren't compelled to kill anyone, and don't have clues left behind them, implying SK, see what I wrote two posts back. Yes, but only Mafia can role-block people, and BrownBear claimed he got RBed. Which means that the mafia DID send in their night hits. It's unlikely that they didn't. I mean, you'd have to have all 5 people offline, otherwise mods would've PMed them or something. And why would BrownBear claim RB? a) he is mafia and trying to confuse the town by putting himself on the radar b) he actually got RBed, which means mafia did send in their actions. You are right about the clues part, but I dunno, maybe Node/LSB decided to put clues about SK BECAUSE he didn't send in night kill. Or maybe they are joking?
?
I'm not referring to the SK when I said roles. I believe mafia sent in their kills, but SK didn't. I'm saying the "you didn't send in actions to kill, we're giving clues about you" cannot possibly refer to the DT, Mason, Medic, etc. Also, vig does not have to hit on night 2, he can wait all game if he wants to. You implied that it might be in reference to them, when it doesn't fit the giving out clues, and having to kill someone. I meant earlier, that it implied SK was the inactive one, not the mafia, sorry for the confusion.
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On January 31 2011 08:54 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 08:51 LSB wrote:On January 31 2011 08:47 Beneather wrote:On January 31 2011 06:45 Kavdragon wrote:
With GMarshal's hit claim the only thing that makes sense is an SK not sending in hits.
Mafia hit Gmarshal to try any get at me, D3 was probably a blue snipe? I'm actually a bit confused about that one. Roleblock BB.
SK is inactive, and forgets to send in hit.
It's really unlikely that the mafia would be willing to put forward two of their members to claim a hit and a role-block like that.
Also, thanks to whoever saved GMarshal. You have your mayor's gratitude. If GMarshal was SK and his computer broke that would mean he was unable to send in his hit making it a 1 KP night. He claimed saying he got but was protected by a medic to cover that up but in reality he is SK and look like he's contributing. Do not speculate on the activity of the SK, it will get you nowhere So there is exactly one SK and he is alive? 
Mod-slip? 
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Voting Nemesis as a place holder and to see how he reacts to pressure. Will re-assess the situation tomorrow.
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I'm willing to throw my support behind switching to eti as well, we have possible clues on all 3 people right now, but I don't feel great lynching any of them. eti hasn't really had a presence all game long, so I think it would serve well to rile up the lurkers.
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Ok, I'd just like to point out, we've had animals in all 4 of the day posts, and dogs in the last two.
Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat?
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make.
The second meat was really fatty and greasy, so the meat kind of breaks up in your mouth
(Dog meat)
A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before.
There may be dogs about
Now going through profiles, here is everyone who have mention of a beast/animal:
Papapanda -panda in name, very weak
Coagulation- monkeys, very, very weak
Jackal58- Name association, jackal's are similar to dogs, but I find name associations weak
Mr. Wiggles- Calls himself a bear (A manly awesome one too)
BrownBear- Also a bear :p (Name)
Beneather- MasterChief sniffing holding a dog. Only direct profile correlation to dogs.
Also, now that I've written this, it seems pretty bad for the dog clues. Deconduo/Pandain died, and if I recall correctly they were the other dog profile. This makes beneather seem more likely as scum if dog really is a clue. This would also mean he is GF, if bumatlarge is telling the truth.
Proposition: If Beneather is mafia, we can keep him to kill whenever (Tonight, tomorrow, the next day, etx.), at our leisure. Mafia knows that we've zeroed in on him, so they're going to keep selecting him as one of their hitmen, and we'll keep seeing clues about dogs or master chief, among the others. Forever. 
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So I've been looking through the day posts and people's profiles a bit recently. There have been 4-6 mafia kills so far, so that means that there should be clues on the whole mafia team almost, or a couple of them twice. I haven't found too much for mafia yet, but I'm going to keep looking. (I'm tired, just did a whole bunch of algebra and physics homework :p).
One thing that did pop out at me though, and I don't think it's been mentioned, are two possible clues referring to LunarDestiny, and both in the "serial killer" part of the post.
And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on.
Really fills my mind
I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him.
How fitting.
I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body.
Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled.
He didn’t get two steps before I killed him.
Serves him right.
Now, from LD's profile:
"Crazy. Karma is a b****. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!"
The part that interests me is "Karma is a b****. Gets you every time.".
If you look up at the day 2 post quote, theAldo is watching as Meapak is killed, hiding in the shadows. Then the new killer comes out and slits his throat. But what really gets me, is that it says "no one was there to help him. How fitting.". Aldo sat and watched, doing nothing as Meapak was killed, and now he is murdered in turn, and there is no one to help him. What makes it stand out as a clue though is the "how fitting" tacked onto the end.
Now, if you look at the day 4 post quote, the killer asks for help. Deconduo was open to helping until he realized he had to enter the poop-your-pants-it's-so-scary-cave. Then he tried to run and was struck down by the killer. And once again, something is added, this time a "Serves him right.".
These both fit in with the quote about Karma and getting your just desserts. TheAldo didn't help Meapak, instead letting him die alone, and was then "fittingly" killed alone with no one to help him.
Then, Deconduo wouldn't help move the body, he wouldn't do a favor, and so he gets killed too, but I guess Karma's a b****, what can you do? :p
These two clues fit LD very closely. I'm going to see if I can find anything else in the day 3 post, or potentially day 1 as well, leaving this here for now.
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I've been a little less active recently because I've had a lot of assignments and a couple essays piled on top of my normal workload for school. Expect some sort of clue analysis this weekend, or maybe Friday, if I can find something. The LD thing jumped out at me right away, and a couple things already posted by other people, but I'm not going to try to force clues if nothing seems apparent. Posting lots of weak connections to many players seems worse than posting no connections almost, as it just puts suspicion on everyone and in the end doesn't tell us anything useful.
As for the Kav vs. Bum debate, I'm pretty convinced Kav is town, and think there might be something to his analysis. I'm probably going to look closer into Bum's posting history for myself, and watch what he says for the next while pretty closely.
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I don't want to spam, but if that's true... sh*t just got real.
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On February 04 2011 10:14 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2011 10:13 BrownBear wrote:
Jesus, relax, I just got back. I'm switching my vote now.
Also, what the hell, shoot me instead of a confirmed mafia player? Major FoS on Jackal, Coag, darmousseh and Impervious for being absolutely fucking idiotic. In NO SITUATION is that ever a good plan, LD just wants revenge on me for pushing heavily for his lynch. I'm not being idiotic cat man do continue.
I'm sorry, but catman made me laugh. :p If you think he's scummy, you should do an analysis, one strenuous clue isn't that great, especially when you have a stronger one on yourself.
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On February 04 2011 11:55 Divinek wrote:
why in the name of all that is holy is there a god damn novel on the page
Ignorance of spoilers and quoting every post including analysis quoting many posts.
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Also, laughing at the LunarDestiny clue in the Day post. Now that we have an idea of what the clues might look like, it's going to be easier to go back and find out the other two mafia. At least one of them has had a clue left after them.
Also, bum just confirmed he was mafia, that's kind've a slip in a no-flip game even though we were 99% sure he was mafia. :p
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Also, have we ever figured out who killed d3, and who the inactive was for day 3?
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On February 05 2011 13:37 Jackal58 wrote:
LD was the inactive.
His post regarding that was 2 or 3 pages back.
Ok, thanks.
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On February 07 2011 09:04 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2011 08:36 Kavdragon wrote:
Hey, I'm running up against a bunch of deadlines for school, so I won't be able to participate much for a few days. Sorry to drop out at a point like this, but I think that the town can hold onto this as long as nobody does anything stupid.
Oh, and one more bit of information I was given: The mafia tried to role-block me last night. Yeah, I know, it can't be done, so why try? On the other hand, this does prove that GMarshal is town...if anyone was still doubting. (I didn't say this earlier, because I wasn't told earlier) Don't get too distracted trying to figure out what that means, but who knows, It might be helpful. (Also means that the RB'er is still alive)
What if the roleblocker was Beneather?
That'd work too, guess we'll see after tonight.
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EPT
