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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 29 2011 01:19 GMT
#1029
On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2011 09:17 Barundar wrote:
Lol want me to pick appart your post? It's filled with so many inconsistencies it's unbelievable. And whats with the apologies, did you get called out? Or just feeling nervous?

Obviously, I'm feeling nervous because so many people are targeting me.
I just apologized for lack of activity during this day.

Only Coagulation targeted you. With a list and no reasons. Yeah, your apologies where overreacting, and that’s suspicious. Right now I'm directly targeting you, and the apologetic tone is gone.

On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +

You have someone on your mind you would definitely kill if SK or mayor? As far as I know those 2 have different motives for their kills, atleast if the mayor is town. Unless you have some special knowledge of Kav's allignment? And if you want someone to get vigi'd you better speak up with names, if you are sure enough to kill them yourself?

You misunderstand.
I meant that I would kill someone if I had complete power over one kill.
If I were mayor, I'd aim for SK/Mafia. If I were SK I'd aim for other SK/Mafia. So yeah. It doesn't matter what I was (vig would work as well), but if I had a kill of my own, it would be that person.
I have, as you'd call it, a hunch. A pretty good one too, but there's no REAL evidence for me to back it up with. If I were to make a case against him, it would be weak.
If I were to die the night after I made the case, you guys wouldn't have enough reason to kill said person.
So why rush into "analysis" and risk getting killed, when I could make a good case against said person during the next day or two days from now?

Why do you think a SK would hit mafia? This early in the game they will be aiming for blues.

And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this.
On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +

But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia

Mafia can't night kill SK, so by go for him you mean start a bandwagon him? Something like you just did? This whole sentence is wishy washy, what information would SK gain from killing off BG's?

This may be a bit hard for you to comprehend, since you said I was "going on" about BGs on day one. But BGs are a crucial part of this game.
Here's why:
a) Say town lynches a BG.
Night can very well be a dead mayor (since other BG may be mafia). We lose census AND we lose the power to see if initial lynch was right. We lynch BG, we have... 1 red for mayor+surprise target.
b) Say both BGs are scum
Town will go all game in fear of lynching them, and they will run amok.

So yeah. If a bg dies, then the next night will tell us A LOT, since I'm pretty sure that if Kav is town, then mafia will go for him. Either by killing other bg, or by 'going around' if they're red.
IMO, any BG death will give us useful information, but will most likely also lead us to eventually losing the game because of lack of information about anything.

Speculating in BG’s was fine to a certain degree. But at some point it becomes just a mechanic that takes up pages without bringing us closer to scum. Mafia loves these neutral questions that makes them look like they are active and contributing.

On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +

You posted alot of thoughts on bodyguards day 1, but I found your posts really low on other content.

That is true, but I have expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets, and I have expressed opinions about the rest of the game.
The only thing I didn't speak about was "post analysis", simply because I'm not good at it. I did talk about behavior analysis, mainly how people played games before this. It's the best I can do at the moment, that and focusing on clues.
If you think that's good enough reason to lynch me, then by all means, vote for me.

Boohoo someone is questioning me.

I’m not going to push for your lynch when there is no clues pointing towards you.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 29 2011 06:35 GMT
#1087
Call me sceptic, but considering RoL would most likely be the godfather if mafia, I find it highly unlikly that we hit red when the votes where so close.

It's very likely we just lost a bunch of townies. Please hit mafia SK?
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 29 2011 07:24 GMT
#1088
On January 27 2011 05:00 Eti307 wrote:
Sure the game is about analyzing, but before the first kills/night actions it's hard to actually analyse anything imo. There will be much more discussion to do once the first night is over


On January 28 2011 23:24 Eti307 wrote:
Sorry guys if I didn't post enough in the last 2days. A lot has been going on in rl and between work and that I didn't have the time to closely follow this thread.

That said, I will be much more active this evening/weekend

^I'm really looking forward to some improvements.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 29 2011 07:35 GMT
#1090
On January 29 2011 16:29 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 29 2011 15:35 Barundar wrote:
Call me sceptic, but considering RoL would most likely be the godfather if mafia, I find it highly unlikly that we hit red when the votes where so close.

It's very likely we just lost a bunch of townies. Please hit mafia SK?


Can you phrase that first part again? I think you are saying RoL is the only likely mafia? Which I agree with, but you just worded it funny. But I'm not sure if it was a slip or not...

Why would I say he is the only likely mafia? I voted zergling.

I'm saying mafia would have saved RoL if he was red. He would be way too valuable to lose to 1 vote. Therefore most likely we lynched town.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 29 2011 08:10 GMT
#1094
Vigs just need to claim just before day post if they shot someone.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 29 2011 23:49 GMT
#1130
On January 30 2011 06:58 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2011 03:45 Kavdragon wrote:
Can someone explain to me why having the Vig claim before, or after is useful? Why does he need to claim at all?


I also agree vig should not claim before shooting because it means nothing. A mafia could as well claim before shooting but it will lure dt toward his way. Alternative suggestion is if a vig really want to claim, he should claim much before the night ends so dts have a chance to check that shooter. This will greatly discourage mafia to claim vig.

I didn't say I agree vig should claim before shooting.

I just said if vig wants to claim before shooting, he should claim ahead of time and should not claim to be shooting in the last hour.

Reason for vigi to claim: To get a confirmed townie.

Why waste a DT check on someone who can confirm himself? We know night KP is 3, and unless RoL is the laziest SK ever, it will be 3 tonight as well. Anything above that is a vigi hit. Why are you worried about a mafia claiming to have done a vigi hit? It's just a matter of the real vigi counter claiming, and then we are trading 1 of us for 1 of them by lynching both.

Reason I would suggest vigi to claim before the day post is that he knows for certain there will be clues towards him in that day post. Mafia can't be sure if they are the ones who will have clues against them in the day post, so fakeclaiming before it's posted is a gamble for them.



I agree with medic protection on LD, some great clue analysis done by him. I'd suggest DivineK in addition to other suspects for DT check, I think he responded badly to my pressure.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 30 2011 10:35 GMT
#1233
On January 30 2011 12:07 zerroth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2011 12:05 darmousseh wrote:
On January 30 2011 12:03 Coagulation wrote:
ya i dont really see how thats related



ya, forget that I even said that. It's a huge stretch. I'm having difficulty pinpointing clues from this one.



Beneather
Profile pic: Master chief
Clues:

Show nested quote +
He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked.


We had a new two new kinds of meat tonight. The flesh tastes like pork, a little bit more bitter, stronger. It tastes quite good.
The second meat was really fatty and greasy, so the meat kind of breaks up in your mouth

And then we realized that this wasn't any ordinary meat.
We never found the chef afterwards. Nor did we find d3_crescentia.


He also had a mafia slip post 721

Looking at Beneather's photo, what is the Master Chief part about it? Some meme I don't know about?

Kenpachi, there is one death tonight, yet you want to call Beneather a vigi when he gets proposed as the clue reference. You would also rather lynch Nemesis than Beneather. But when Jackal gets proposed by Nemesis you immedietly join the bandwagon on him without questions?

We had a man with a hole in his head on first day. Your profile picture is wearing a eye patch. If Beneather is scum this looks bad for you.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 30 2011 10:56 GMT
#1235
will targets who got medic saved be notified?
2 KP missing, would be funny if the mafia team forgot to send in their hits.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 30 2011 11:15 GMT
#1236
On January 30 2011 19:35 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2011 12:07 zerroth wrote:
On January 30 2011 12:05 darmousseh wrote:
On January 30 2011 12:03 Coagulation wrote:
ya i dont really see how thats related



ya, forget that I even said that. It's a huge stretch. I'm having difficulty pinpointing clues from this one.



Beneather
Profile pic: Master chief
Clues:

He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked.


We had a new two new kinds of meat tonight. The flesh tastes like pork, a little bit more bitter, stronger. It tastes quite good.
The second meat was really fatty and greasy, so the meat kind of breaks up in your mouth

And then we realized that this wasn't any ordinary meat.
We never found the chef afterwards. Nor did we find d3_crescentia.


He also had a mafia slip post 721

Looking at Beneather's photo, what is the Master Chief part about it? Some meme I don't know about?

Kenpachi, there is one death tonight, yet you want to call Beneather a vigi when he gets proposed as the clue reference. You would also rather lynch Nemesis than Beneather. But when Jackal gets proposed by Nemesis you immedietly join the bandwagon on him without questions?

We had a man with a hole in his head on first day. Your profile picture is wearing a eye patch. If Beneather is scum this looks bad for you.

Sorry Kenpachi I can't read. Mixed you up with coagulation. Still confused as to how you think we had a vigi tonight when we are already missing 2 KPs from yesterday.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 16:06 GMT
#1375
So Jackal why didn't you involve yourself in the body guard discussion if you where a vet? The option of having a vet as a body guard was mentioned quite a few times, and you where active in the thread.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 16:57 GMT
#1377
If I had to go by clue alone I would follow LD on Deconduo/pandain, or Beneather. Deconduo lurked as mafia in PYP3. In this game he has tried to contribute, even though he haven't had too many opinions on other players. Beneather has been scummy throughout thread but is a BG... What is your opinion on Beneather Kav?
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 18:29 GMT
#1390
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it.

Looking back at d3's list of suspects:
Nemesis
Darmousseh
Beneather
kitaman27
Eti307
LunarDestiny
GMarshal

Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather.

Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.

My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.

i love the ballsy plan suggestion. But why would you want to kill off the mayor instead of using census to confirm if beneather is red?
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 19:53 GMT
#1414
On February 01 2011 04:30 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, I only implied this in that post, but I think that the mafia are busing Beneather so they can kill me.

And I think you are being paranoid. I have been suspecious of Beneather since his first real post, and now there is even clues to back it up. It seems like there is too strong of a resistance to push for a lynch now though, so I will try tomorrow instead. But if you are town, don't just discard him beceause you picked him as BG.

For today's targets:

Jackal: I still want you to answer my questions regarding the vet discussion.

Deconduo: Ballsy plan suggestions are big plusses in my book. The plan was kinda scummy though, would make it easy to pick off mayor.

Nemesis: I never thought he was scum, but at this point we will be strugling killing anyone else, any day, beceause of the suspecions against him. Hence we can kill him off.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
January 31 2011 23:32 GMT
#1456
On February 01 2011 08:28 Kenpachi wrote:
WHY KILL NEMESIS

On January 30 2011 11:37 Kenpachi wrote:
##vote Nemesis ~~

wat
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 01 2011 00:03 GMT
#1462
Well I need to sleep. I don't believe Kav is right with his vigi idea, and if we have a vigi who is stupid enough not to claim when hitting, it's beceause him and LunarD talked too much about it during night.

The lack of information in this game is killing me. I bet we don't have any DT's again, and our vets are publicly claiming without trying to use their extra hp. The only thing we have going for us is clues, but they are easy to forge.

For some reason Deconduo has disapeared as a proposed target from alot of peoples posts, even if the clue analysis on him is pretty convincing. I'd feel best about killing off Beneather, but since that is impossible I'll stick my vote on Nemesis. Atleast we won't have to deal with that discussion again then.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 01 2011 10:13 GMT
#1527
So I promised my analysis of Beneather.

General posting style:
HPmafia: Played as town/blue, active, underlined he was new, and got so suspicious he got killed off night 1 by a town busdriver. Posted more in 1 day 1 night than in this entire game. Discussed the mayor selection freely. Example: + Show Spoiler +
On December 11 2010 10:54 Beneather wrote:
Yeah, that is true. Disregard my post I wasn't really thinking of it like that. But if he was mafia and just Lynch somebody important that is contributing a lot and helping the town find the mafia. We could just lynch the mayor. It really depends if the person turns out to be a mafia or a townie right? I think someone isn't stupid enough just to lynch a random person without the town approving it then we could just lynch the mayor right?

Im really unexperienced please stop me if I'm acting noobie?

Alot of back and forth, but posting without fear. Has alot of thoughts on how mayor should use his power, something he hasn't adressed in this game.

PYP3: Played as town. It was an active game, but he had more than twice his posts in this game, and that game was pretty short. Example of Beneather scumhunting: + Show Spoiler +
On January 11 2011 06:49 Beneather wrote:
HaploPaithan you have to have reasons on why we have you can't just blindly say something with out any reason to back up your statement. That's just basically 1 line spamming.

Why do we have to worry about CopyCat he will only copycat someone that has a good role and that he knows it for sure or he'll be just wasting his powers blindly and might get some bad role or something. The only time CopyCat will work is if people start claiming and he can just copycat that role if it's good also it would be good to see if their lying about their role. It really can be used as a Detective tool as well.

So what are you thinking that CopyCat is a bad role ?

He has yet to post anything regarding other people's posting in this game.

Present game: A lot of empty posts: + Show Spoiler +
On January 23 2011 11:00 Beneather wrote:
ITs TIME!! :D FINALLY!
On January 23 2011 11:23 Beneather wrote:
/confrim
On January 24 2011 09:42 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2011 09:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose.

##Vote: Kavdragon


We're not suppose to be voting yet. The thread will be created on the Day 1. Right now it's Night 0. So we can't vote yet.
On January 26 2011 12:19 Beneather wrote:
I don't think its counted since it was too late so it really doesn't matter.

His activity is way lower than in his games as town, yet a good part of his posts are empty.


Suspicious posts:+ Show Spoiler +
On January 24 2011 05:38 Beneather wrote:
Alright we have 2 people running for mayor.

1. KavDragon
2. Kitaman

KavDragon has brought up strong points of having scum bodyguards which most agree to. Aswell other stated if the mayor dies and without any death of the bodyguards then the bodyguards are scum and we can just lynch them.

Kitaman hasn't brought up any points in his run for mayor. It's all basically saying that we should vote for him because he is better than KavDragon etc. Also saying that KavDragon is red because he's a communist russian etc.

These are the only 2 running so far and if I had to vote now it'd be KavDragon since he had brought up a lot of good points and could be a huge asset to the town. There are a few more ideas that Mr.Wiggles had to that I agree with but I think KavDragon can incorporate those in to his plans.

This rang the alarm for me. First of all he summarizes instead of discussing the candidates. He doesn’t question the plans of the mayor more than what Mr.Wiggles has said. No independent thoughts, no contribution.

Personally I don’t believe in scumslips, but it’s worth mentioning: + Show Spoiler +
On January 26 2011 15:39 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote:
On January 26 2011 14:24 Beneather wrote:
On January 26 2011 14:15 TheAldo wrote:
On January 26 2011 13:10 Nemesis wrote:
Hi barundar

and obviously kav is going to check the number of mafias tonight right?

Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's.


Why is it beneficial to check the number of SK's?


It's more beneficial because we then know how many KP a night we're going to have. Since the regular mafia games have 5-6 mafia members and we know the formula then it would be atleast 3-4 KPs a night. I think knowing the number of SK will benefit the town to prepare for the number of KPs at night.




referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're"
and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective.

Badly worded post or scumslip?


I meant the number of deaths the town is going to have. Badly worded I guess.

Argues for SK checking, first time he really shows an opinion on plans. Suspicious choice of words.

Vote reasons:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 25 2011 05:51 Beneather wrote:
Looks like DocH dropped out?

I guess that my vote will be going to KavDragon since I agree with most of his points. Except for choosing Volunteered BGs because that just allows Mafia to pick them off for free since which was stated post before this.

Let's talk about the lynch for this day. I read that if we vote for KavDragon that he would lynch OriginalName since his prof. looks like the best relation to the clues. I support this he has been inactive and also looks like a smurf cause when he joined it seemed that he played a game before but only had 60-70 posts.

His reasons for day 1 vote. Kinda weird reasoning for lynching OriginalName, he doesn’t seem to really think ON is scum.

After this Kav chooses him as BG. He has yet to talk about this! GMarshal and Kav has had some cute back and forth about it, but Beneather has not even mentioned it. A mafia is probably not too happy about the spotlight, but on the other hand that choice of BG probably has saved his life, and lets him get away with scummy afk play.

Reasons for voting day 2: + Show Spoiler +
On January 27 2011 14:37 Beneather wrote:
I'm very in the middle between RoL and Nemesis. The Analyzing of bum on RoL's post really show that the clues are going towards him but LD made a point that some clues are going Nemesis. Can they both be mafia? or 1 Sk and 1 is Scum?

I'll be voting for RoL...

We NEED YOU to claim if you were VISITED LAST NIGHT!!!!

Doesn’t actually give any reasons, just bandwagons. The reasons for choosing RoL over Nemesis aren’t exactly clear. Raises FoS against both Nemesis and RoL. Last question is again relevant.

He has no posts before the next day.

Reasons for voting day 3: + Show Spoiler +
On January 30 2011 14:32 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2011 14:01 Coagulation wrote:
A vote for jackal is a Vote for TOWN!


It really does look like Jackal is scum from what the clues point to. The points addressed in posts before this make sense and it looks like he's scum.


More bandwagon. Again just quotes posts before him.


Day post reactions: + Show Spoiler +
On January 27 2011 11:08 Beneather wrote:
^ was about to ask that question?

Or Did the Mafia and SK visit the same person. Do people know if they were visited?
On January 27 2011 11:16 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2011 11:13 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
EBWOP: Hit (and lived), so vets, SK(s)

Also, just thought of this, what happens if there were two SKs, and they somehow both made it to the end? Would it be a tie cause they can't NK eachother? Or would it be who votes for lynch first? :p


Wait so you were hit? I'm confused.

The chances of that ever happening are very slim but I think that they both win? Since both are SK and they cant kill eachother.

Nothing much here, relevant questions but doesn’t say anything of his alignment.

And lastly + Show Spoiler +
On January 31 2011 08:47 Beneather wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2011 06:45 Kavdragon wrote:
With GMarshal's hit claim the only thing that makes sense is an SK not sending in hits.

Mafia hit Gmarshal to try any get at me, D3 was probably a blue snipe? I'm actually a bit confused about that one. Roleblock BB.

SK is inactive, and forgets to send in hit.

It's really unlikely that the mafia would be willing to put forward two of their members to claim a hit and a role-block like that.

Also, thanks to whoever saved GMarshal. You have your mayor's gratitude.


If GMarshal was SK and his computer broke that would mean he was unable to send in his hit making it a 1 KP night.

He claimed saying he got but was protected by a medic to cover that up but in reality he is SK and look like he's contributing.

Wow some pretty heavy fingerpointing there Beneather, don’t you think you should clarify this?


Conclusion: Way lower activity than usual. Excessive bandwagoning. No scumhunting, but interested in SK. Zero contribution.

He has completely ignored that he got chosen as BG. This to me signifies he doesn’t like it. A green would be happy to get a more special role. Only a mafia or a blue would dislike the attention, ergo he isn't green. He has posted relevant questions after day posts, which to me shows he is following the thread, and is not just a bored/busy townie. In HPmafia he was a DT, but that didn't make him lurk like this, and stop contributing.

Verdict: Mafia

Why did you have to pick him as BG Kav? It’s about the only reason I can see not to lynch him.

I plan to post a few more analysis on my suspects today or tomorrow as time allows it.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 01 2011 10:40 GMT
#1528
And before I forget, Cubedin remember this?
On January 29 2011 10:19 Barundar wrote:
And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this.

On January 29 2011 10:34 CubEdIn wrote:
I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies.

It is time.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 02 2011 08:33 GMT
#1673
On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me.

I am a detective

Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic
Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town
Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black]

Shouldn't Beneather have returned Townie Bodyguard as allignment? It seems very convenient that you check kitaman who died tonight, and Beneather who is suspected scum.

In any case either Lunar or bum is lying, so we got atleast 1 guranteed lynch. Can we afford to mislynch today?
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 02 2011 09:41 GMT
#1675
It’s 19 players remaining, 13 v 5 v 1

There are 4 options:

1) LunarD = town, Bum = DT
2) LunarD = town, Bum = mafia
3) LunarD = SK, Bum = DT
4) LunarD = SK, Bum = mafia

Option 1 can be discarded straight away. Bum would have no reason to lie about LunarD

Option 2 can pretty much be discarded. It wouldn’t pay off for a mafia to expose himself to kill a townie when there is still a bit to go before lylo. The real SK would still be about, and would know for sure Bum is mafia, free to kill during the night.

If Bum is town, he has no reason to lie about Lunar, if Bum is mafia, it doesn’t pay off for him. It seems pretty certain that LunarD is in fact the SK.

Obvious choice today: Lynch LunarD, if he doesn’t help us kill off mafia. No amount of clue analysis makes up for a lose KP. Any comments LunarD?


So what’s left is to decide between option 3 and option 4. This close to lylo it would make sense for a mafia to expose himself to kill off their main rival, the SK. There was no way town would lynch LunarD otherwise. A fake DT claim could fix this, and could possibly be used to direct town to another mislynch afterwards, making it a pretty good trade.

I have a few ideas on how we can confirm Bum, but first I’ll have to go through his posts.
Bartundar
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
February 02 2011 10:02 GMT
#1679
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post.

Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now.

I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging.

Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?)
Here are the options:

1) bumatlarge is SCUM
Let's start with this one because it's most fun.
Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason.
Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him.
We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*.
Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us.
Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever.

2. bumatlarge is DT
Then he is right about SK.
He will help the town further on.



There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop.
Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that:
a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK
b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK
c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming.

Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town.
So, let's draw the line and think of options:

1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future
2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values.

And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase.


Rofl at delayed rage. Didn't feel like that yesterday? Where is that analysis you promised me?
Bartundar
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